Curbing Unemployment Through Job Creation as Panacea to Inclusive Growth in Nigeria

This study examines the relationship between tourism and inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1995Q1 to 2022Q4. The objective is to determine the effect of tourism on inclusive growth in Nigeria. Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) modelling is utilized to estimate the linkage of tourism and inclusive growth over the period. The results show a positive and significant relationship between international tourism receipt at lag period 1 and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria, a positive and significant relationship between international tourist arrivals at levels and inclusive growth in Nigeria, a negative and insignificant relationship between exchange rate at levels and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria and no long run cointegrating is established with tourism and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria. Also, jointly all the variables in the model significantly influence inclusive growth in Nigeria. The findings suggest that tourism is influencing inclusive economic growth in Nigeria only in the short run period. The study recommends increasing investment in tourism related infrastructures, strengthening social welfare programs to ensure that benefits of tourism receipts reach marginalized population, and strengthening exchange rate to ensure higher earnings from tourism, all these measures will ensure that the benefits of tourism will go beyond short-term benefits to long- term benefits to citizens in Nigeria.

This study investigated the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1985-2022. Secondary data on the human development index, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP, total government expenditure, inequality, and government expenditure on infrastructure and education were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test showed that in the long run, government expenditure on infrastructure, and education, has a positive and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Also, total government expenditure and the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP have a negative and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Interestingly, inequality has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. In the short run, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP and government expenditure on infrastructure has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. At the same time, government expenditure on education, total government expenditure, and inequality has a positive and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. These results highlight the vital role that responsible fiscal policy management plays in promoting sustainable development and inclusive growth. The study recommended a need to augment tax revenue, enhance capital investment, and address income inequality to bolster inclusive growth efforts in the country further.

The inability of macroeconomic policy in influencing macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria has been attributed to weak institutional quality which has consequences for the achievement of inclusive growth. Thus, this study investigates the link between macroeconomic policy, inclusive growth, and institutional quality in Nigeria. The period of this study spanned 1996 to 2021. The study utilised fully modified ordinary least square and the results showed that macroeconomic policy variables and institutional quality contributed significantly in enhancing inclusive growth in Nigeria. More so, it was observed that the interactive terms between macroeconomic policy variables and institutional quality enhanced inclusive growth Therefore, the study concludes that macroeconomic policy and institutional quality are important drivers of inclusive growth in Nigeria. This study recommends that institutional quality should be improved using appropriate anti-corruption policies through institutions like the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).

The strategy of Inclusive growth is a newly introduced concept in Development economics that emerged in late 2000s out of the gross failure of traditional growth models to deal with the contemporaneity of high economic growth on one hand, and soaring poverty, inequality and unemployment on the other hand particularly in the developing world. Ever since, it has dominated policy-making framework in the world. This study sets out to examine the inclusiveness of growth in Nigeria and the role of macroeconomic stability to spur inclusive growth and development in Nigeria using the data for the period of 1960-2012. Due to lack of a standard measure of inclusive growth, an index of inclusive growth has been constructed using 23 agricultural, economic, education, environmental and health variables while applying Principal Component Analysis and Human Development Index formula. Econometric approaches of Johansen Cointegration testing and Vector Error Correction Model have been employed further to test the long run relationship between macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth in Nigeria. Our findings come up with three stylized facts: firstly, there is a long run relationship between all the regressors and inclusive growth; secondly macroeconomic stability has a significant impact on inclusive growth as GDPV and INV revealed an inverse relationship between them and inclusive growth. Lastly, TOP, FDI, C-GDP and GFC have negative impacts on inclusive growth. Hence the recommendation that there should be committed and sincere efforts towards diversifying the economy so as to contain the volatility by reducing the dominance of oil sector in the economy. Moreover, a macroeconomic policy targeting moderate inflation should be formulated just to make the economy stable and favorable for inclusive growth.

<p>This study carefully investigated the effect of indirect tax on inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1994-2019. To achieve the above objective, secondary data on the human development index, value-added tax, as well as customs and excise duties were sourced from the statistical bulletin of Nigeria’s apex bank. Co-integration and ECM techniques were used as the main analytical tools. The regression result revealed that value-added tax has a positive and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria during the period of study. At the same time, customs and excise duties have a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria during the studied period. Based on the findings, the study recommended that revenue from the various forms of indirect tax – value-added tax and customs and excise duties should be invested in social and community services - health, education, etc., economic services - agriculture, construction, transport and communication among others that will help the various sectors of the economy to function very well thereby improving the quality of life of people as measured by human development index. Government should boost indirect tax revenue. To achieve this, the government should identify and eradicate all administrative loopholes for indirect tax revenue to contribute meaningfully to the improvement of the quality of life of the inhabitants of Nigeria.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL</strong>: H20; H21; H71</p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0026/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial inclusion, institutional quality and inclusive growth within a four-variate ARDL-EC framework and forecast error variance decomposition technique for the period of 2003-2018 using quarterly data in Nigeria. The paper incorporates two variables to capture institutional quality (government effectiveness and regulatory quality) in order to eliminate variable omission bias in which most existing studies are characterised. Those adopted techniques confirm the long-run and bi-causal relationships mainly between financial inclusion and inclusive growth in Nigeria. In addition, bi-directional causal relationships of the outcome of the study are also established between financial inclusion and government effectiveness, likewise between inclusive growth and regulatory quality mainly in the short-run. The results based on the model and empirical outputs suggest that for the authorities of this economy to achieve and sustain equitable growth, fully disciplined policies that can promote and enhance financial inclusion and inclusive growth of the greater proportion of the population should not be managed and handled by loosed hands
 This paper examines the causal relationship between financial inclusion, institutional quality and inclusive growth within a four-variate ARDL-EC framework and forecast error variance decomposition technique for the period of 2003-2018 using quarterly data in Nigeria. The paper incorporates two variables to capture institutional quality (government effectiveness and regulatory quality) in order to eliminate variable omission bias in which most existing studies are characterised. Those adopted techniques confirm the long-run and bi-causal relationships mainly between financial inclusion and inclusive growth in Nigeria. In addition, bi-directional causal relationships of the outcome of the study are also established between financial inclusion and government effectiveness, likewise between inclusive growth and regulatory quality mainly in the short-run. The results based on the model and empirical outputs suggest that for the authorities of this economy to achieve and sustain equitable growth, fully disciplined policies that can promote and enhance financial inclusion and inclusive growth of the greater proportion of the population should not be managed and handled by loosed hands

In Nigeria fiscal stability has deteriorated resulting in high rate of deficits and domestic debt. This study investigates fiscal stability and inclusive growth in Nigeria using annual data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin from 1985 to 2015. The result Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique used in the study showed that in the short run debt ratio and inflation have a significant negative effect on inclusive growth in Nigeria. However, in the long-run, debt ratio have a significant negative effect on inclusive growth. Fiscal deficit and inflation have a significant positive effect on inclusive growth. The Granger causality test shows a uni-direction causality relationship between inclusive growth and fiscal stability measures running only from debt ratio and fiscal deficit to inclusive growth. It is evident from the result that fiscal stability in Nigeria is characterised by policy inconsistency and high level of macroeconomic uncertainty indicating high level of fiscal instability. It was suggested that government need to reduce the size of its deficits, broaden the revenue base by increasing the contribution from non-oil sources.

The study explores the integration of financial technology (fintech) innovation and regulatory frameworks as a promising approach to develop a sustainable financial model that fosters inclusive growth in Nigeria. The study identifies the pressing problem of limited access to formal financial services in Nigeria, with only 36.8% of adults having such access in 2018. It outlines three key objectives: examining fintech's role in expanding access, analyzing existing regulatory frameworks, and proposing a sustainable financial model. The study's significance lies in its potential to contribute to Nigeria's economic development by reducing poverty and increasing financial inclusion. It also offers insights for other nations facing similar challenges, highlighting the importance of regulatory frameworks and consumer protection in fostering fintech innovation. Review of empirical literature underscores the positive impact of fintech innovation on financial inclusion, citing examples like M-Pesa in Kenya and digital payment systems in India. Regulatory frameworks are shown to be crucial for both fintech development and financial inclusion. Additionally, microfinance and peer-to-peer lending platforms are found effective in reaching underserved populations. The conceptual framework developed in the study illustrates the interplay between financial inclusion, fintech innovation, and regulatory frameworks. It proposes four key propositions, with the central hypothesis being that a sustainable financial model integrating fintech and regulation positively impacts financial inclusion in Nigeria. The study concludes that the integration of fintech and regulation offers great promise for inclusive growth and financial inclusion in Nigeria. By adopting the recommended policies and addressing technological challenges, Nigeria can harness fintech's potential for the benefit of its citizens and economic development.

This paper examines the symmetric and asymmetric causal relationships between tourism and inclusive growth in Turkey and Nigeria over the period 1995Q1-2018Q4. The study employs a bootstrap simulation method with leverage adjustments to achieve the objective of the study. The method is used to see whether positive or negative tourism shocks cause inclusive growth and whether positive or negative inclusive growth shocks cause tourism activity. The results show no evidence of asymmetric causality between tourism and inclusive growth, while there is evidence of symmetric causality running from tourism to inclusive growth in Turkey. On the other hand, there is neither symmetric nor asymmetric causal relationship between tourism and inclusive growth in Nigeria. In sum, both neutrality and tourism-led growth hypothesis hold in Turkey, while Nigeria gives credence to neutrality hypothesis. The recommendations coming from the findings are that the tourism sector in both countries, Nigeria in particular, should be repositioned for better performance and effectiveness in stimulating inclusive growth. Rather than focusing on pro-poor and micro-based tourism policies that favour selected communities and localities, tourism should be included in development plans nationally, in order to ensure wider participation and more encompassing trickle-down effects on the citizenry. Furthermore, both countries should implement policies that will stimulate their tourism sectors for a larger and more significant contribution to real GDP.

Over the years, cocoa and oil palm production have been one of the major market of export for International trade and a major source of economic growth in Nigeria. However,the production of cocoa and oil palm has been below expectation as a result of government diverting its attention to the oil and gas sector and consequent low attention in the agricultural sector. This study, therefore, examines the relationship between performance of cocoa and oil palm production on inclusive growth in Nigeria (1981- 2014). It employed Johansen co-integration test to determine the long run relationship between the performances of cocoa-oil palm production on inclusive growth in Nigeria, which is complemented with the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results revealed that cocoa and oil palm production exact positive and significant effect on inclusive growth in both short and the long run. Thus, it is recommended that the Federal Government of Nigeria should invest in activities such as basic and applied agricultural research, agricultural extension and capacity building, irrigation development and agribusiness development that will promote agricultural production resulting in pro-poor growth.

In Nigeria, achieving inclusive growth has been challenging due to insufficient public investment in human capital and weak institutional quality. These deficiencies have resulted in widespread poverty, income inequality, low GDP per capita, stagnant human development indices, and poor living standards. This study evaluated the effects of government expenditure on education on inclusive growth in Nigeria, while also examining the moderating role of institutional quality from 1990 to 2023. The study employed the ex-post factor quantitative research design. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller, and Phillip Peron unit root test statistics were used to determine the order of integration. The unit root test result showed that the variables were not integrated in the same order. Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) was employed and it was found that government expenditure on education had negative insignificant effect on the short run and negative significant effect on the long. In terms of the interaction with institutional quality, it was found that government expenditure on education also had both short and long run negative effect on inclusive growth in Nigeria. Furthermore, both inflation rate and unemployment rate had negative effect on inclusive growth both in the short and long run. The study therefore recommended that effort should be made in strengthening institutional frameworks to ensure that government investment in education contributes positively to GDP per person employed.

Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria: A Critical Appraisal for Evidence Based Policy

Economic growth, both local and global, is no longer regarded as a measure of a state or country's wealth, this is because economic growth is usually accompanied by inequality, poverty, and joblessness, which becomes a poor measure of a country’s wealth, hence the need for economic growth that is inclusive. This study examines the impact of financial inclusion on inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024 using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique; the study utilized insurance and financial services, monetary sector credit to private sector and remittances as measures of financial inclusion while real GDP per capita captures inclusive growth. This study used time series data sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data, NBS, CBN database, and WDI with the new growth theory as its theoretical framework. The findings reveal that infrastructural investment and insurance financial services exhibited a significant relationship with RGDP per capita in both the long and short run terms. The long-term analysis established a significant positive relationship which posits that inclusive financial policies contribute positively to GDP per capita, albeit in the long run, while the short run was statistically insignificant, signifying that the immediate effects of financial inclusion might not be prominently observed in increasing GDP per capita. This study highlights potential nuances within the Nigerian economic landscape and suggests that despite the current lack of discernible effects on RGDP per capita in the short-run, financial inclusion initiatives could be instrumental in laying the groundwork for future economic stability at the long run, which will generate a more conducive environment for inclusive growth in Nigeria.

This study has investigated the relationship between government spending and inclusive growth in Nigeria over the period 1995 to 2014. Specifically, it examined how, and to what extent, government spending on education, government spending on health, economic freedom, public resource use, and real GDP growth rate have impacted on inclusive growth in the country. It used the Dickey-Fuller GLS unit root test to ascertain the order of integration of the series. Consequently, through the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing technique, the study found that in the long-run government spending on health, economic freedom, public resource use and real GDP growth rate had significantly positive influence on inclusive growth. In the short-run, however, only real GDP impacted significantly on inclusive growth while other variables were not significant in causing inclusive growth. Thus, in conclusion, government spending in the form of redistributive spending on health propelled inclusive growth in Nigeria.

This study examines the role of information and communication technology (ICT), access to electricity and transport infrastructure in reducing poverty and promoting inclusive growth in Nigeria for the period 1980-2014 using the error correction modeling approach (ECM). The results indicate that access to electricity and transport infrastructure is negative and statistically significant in both the incidence and the depth of poverty reduction and therefore conclude that this lead to inclusive growth. In particular, we show that access to ICT negatively influences the incidence of poverty, but the relationship is not robust when the measure of poverty is the poverty gap.