Real House Research Articles

Demographic changes, technology growth, and retirement policy reform: Implications for U.S. housing dynamics

As the population aging process continues, concerns about how this situation impacts the housing market and social security rise. To address this question, this paper presents a developed and calibrated general equilibrium life-cycle model incorporating two production sectors to analyze the impacts of demographic structure changes and retirement policy reforms on housing price fluctuations and household choices. The model calibrated to the U.S. macroeconomic data between 1968 and 2018 suggests that in an economy with unlimited land supply, the housing supply curve exhibits perfect elasticity, rendering demographic changes insignificant in housing price fluctuations, while technological advancements lead to decreased prices. A 1% growth in productivity in both sectors results in a 2.6% decrease in house prices. Furthermore, a 1% decrease in population and a 5-year early retirement led to significant reductions of 25% and 30% in individual social security payments and 9% and 18% in interest rates, respectively. This suggests that during a recession caused by demographic structural changes, households become more conservative and prioritize precautionary saving strategies, increasing savings and investing more in housing assets. Consistent with empirical findings, during an economic boom, a decline in the capital-output ratio and the real housing price suggests a decrease in savings and housing asset investment. The rise in consumption drives the capital demand of the non-housing sector to increase, stimulating business expansion and labor inflow.

The Monetary Policy of Real Estate Industry Implemented by the Government under the Covid-19

Abstract: Recently, the real estate become more and more prosperous and turn out the mainstay industry of Chinas economy. And monetary policy is a wise choice to control the development of the real estate industry. In the history of the development of Chinas real estate industry, different periods have different monetary policies implemented by the government. Recently, with the influence of COVID-19, the real housing industry has been in a recession. This essay summarizes the past monetary policies implemented by government and extends to the status quo of the real housing industry to find out the fitting monetary policy which can relieve the pressure brought by the COVID-19. The expansive monetary policy would reduce the bubbles of real estate industry while the constrictive monetary policy would enhance the real estate industry. And finally get the conclusion that government should choose to implement a tight monetary policy to boost the economy of the property sector.

Brexit and the London housing market: An empirical contribution

This study aims to analyse the impact of Brexit on London’s housing market, exploring socio-economic and regional disparities. By examining property transaction data from 2012 to 2022, the research seeks to understand how Brexit has influenced real housing prices across different boroughs of London. The methodology involves aggregating transaction data from the Her Majesty (HM) Price Paid database and normalizing prices using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to obtain real price variations. These data were segmented into three distinct periods: pre-Brexit (2012–2016), post-plebiscite Brexit (2016–2019), and post-implementation Brexit (2020–2022). Spatial analysis was conducted using the software Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS), transforming point data (postcodes) into polygonal data (wards) for better visualization and comparison. The findings reveal significant socio-economic impacts, with traditionally affluent areas such as Westminster, Kensington, and Chelsea experiencing notable declines in real housing prices. Conversely, certain outer boroughs like Newham and Barnet showed resilience, with positive real price variations despite decreased sales. This geographical disparity underscores the uneven distribution of Brexit’s economic consequences, highlighting the critical role of localized economic policies and development projects in mitigating adverse effects. The results confirm existing literature on the polarization and regional inequalities exacerbated by Brexit while providing new insights into the complex interplay of local and global factors affecting housing markets. The findings emphasize the need for targeted policy interventions to address the diverse challenges posed by Brexit, ensuring both affluent and disadvantaged areas receive adequate support. This research is crucial for informing public policy, urban planning, and housing market strategies in a post-Brexit context, promoting equitable and sustainable development across London.

Influence of daylight on real estate housing prices. A multiple regression model application in Turin

Daylight is crucial in architecture, influencing human health, well-being, energy efficiency, and the post-COVID-19 perception of residential spaces. People often consider daylight among the most important features when buying a home, which potentially affects real estate asset pricing. Within this framework, this study explored the impact of daylight on real estate asset pricing, particularly focusing on its role in the Italian market. The research employed two approaches: (i) simulations of 100 units to determine a large set of daylight metrics and (ii) a statistical approach, applying Hedonic Analysis principles to investigate how house attributes influence pricing. A data sample of 100 housing units was selected in Turin (Italy), including variables such as location, floor area, construction year, façade type, and daylight metrics. By using Multiple Regression Analysis, after Exploratory Analysis and outlier management, we identified significant variables influencing housing listing prices, such as energy class, conservation status, elevator presence, terraces/balconies, and frame type. Notably, two daylight metrics (annual sunlight exposure and useful daylight illuminance) were found to be significant, while others, like average daylight factor and spatial daylight autonomy, were not. The final model was validated by means of a control sample, demonstrating the relevance of daylight in real estate pricing. This research contributes to the literature, providing an in-depth exploration of the impact of daylight on hedonic analysis in a relatively underexplored research space. Precisely, the work contributes to bridging the literature gap about the detection of the influence of daylight on real estate market pricing processes by means of regression analysis.

Do capital controls absorb global financial shocks? Evidence from emerging market economies

ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of capital controls as an effective policy instrument to insulate Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) from global financial shocks. Using state-dependent Local Projection method on a sample of emerging market economies, we find that economies with strict inflow controls are able to moderate the effects of global financial shock on GDP, real housing prices and private credit. We also find that monetary policy responds countercyclically to global financial shock in strict capital inflow controls state, which provides support for the use of inflow controls as a macroeconomic stabilising policy tool. Further, the results suggest that individual asset category inflow controls significantly contribute to overall effectiveness of capital inflow controls to act as shock absorbers. The findings suggests that the policy makers in EMEs may consider capital controls as an effective policy tool to increase the resilience of their economies against global financial shocks.

Housing Market Appreciation and the White-Black Wealth Gap

Abstract Real house prices in the United States have risen by 55 percent over the last four decades, driving substantial wealth benefits to homeowners. However, research has not explored how this rise in house prices has affected White-Black wealth gaps, or the mechanisms that may underlie this relationship. Using geocoded longitudinal household-level wealth data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and tract-level house price index data, I estimate that housing market appreciation between 1984 and 2021 explains 70 percent of the increase in the median White-Black wealth gap over this period. I find that most of this effect is due to White-Black gaps in homeownership, with White-Black gaps in house values playing a smaller role. In contrast to recent findings about racialized housing markets, I do not find that gaps in neighborhood house price appreciation between White and Black homeowners contributed to White-Black wealth gaps in the 2000s and 2010s. These results highlight the importance of cumulative advantage processes in driving wealth inequalities and demonstrate how the legacies of institutional racism contribute to contemporary racial wealth gaps.

Utilizing 31 Chinese province panel data models to investigate the factors influencing house prices

In the realm of data analysis, this research employs regression models to delve into the complexities of housing market dynamics. The construction sector of real estate development companies, the amount invested in real estate development, and the gross regional product have all been found to be important determinants of home prices. Interestingly, the most significant factor is the investment in real estate development, which has a significant impact on house prices. The analysis reveals a positive correlation between the gross regional product and investment amount in real estate development with housing prices, suggesting that as these economic indicators rise, so too do housing prices. Conversely, the author observes a negative correlation between the construction area of real estate development enterprises and housing prices, indicating that an increase in construction area is associated with a decrease in housing prices. These findings underscore the importance of considering these key factors when analyzing housing market trends, providing valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and researchers alike. By understanding these relationships, stakeholders can make more informed decisions to navigate the ever-evolving housing market landscape.

Das House Kapital: A Long-Run Theory of House Prices and Housing Wealth

Abstract Over the last 70 years, many advanced countries have experienced growing real house prices and an increasing housing wealth-to-income ratio. To explain these long-run patterns, this paper introduces a novel multi-sector growth model where housing services are produced using non-reproducible land and reproducible structures. Land is also employed in the non-housing sector. First, we identify two fundamental mechanisms driving the long-run increase in the real house price: (i) technological progress in the construction sector lags behind the technological progress of the rest of the economy and (ii) housing production is more land-intensive than non-housing production. Second, we study transitional dynamics for the US, UK, France, and Germany. Our calibrated model explains most of the observed increase in the housing wealth-to-income ratio since 1950. Counterfactual experiments identify initially low stocks of residential structures and non-residential capital as key exogenous drivers for this increase. The associated investment incentives led to a long-lasting construction boom and steadily increasing land scarcity, boosting residential land prices.

UTJECAJ ODABRANIH MAKROEKONOMSKIH VARIJABLI NA CIJENE STAMBENIH OBJEKATA U HRVATSKOJ

Recognizing the macroeconomic determinants that have a statistically significant influence on the formation of house prices is in the interest of the general public due to its informative effect on various interest groups involved in housing construction. Thus, real estate buyers, investors, as well as local government and self-government units should be interested in this information because monitoring of standard macroeconomic variables can provide conclusions about the possible development of residential property prices. Previously conducted research can be classified into four distinctive categories depending on what they take as determining variables: microelements specific to individual micro location, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, standard macroeconomic variables, or tourism development. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of selected macroeconomic variables on residential property prices in Croatia. This study employs Autometrics, i.e. an automatic computer implementation of general-to-specific VAR (vector autoregressive) modelling framework and quarterly data on real GDP, domestic credit, consumer prices, interest rate, tourist arrivals and house prices in the period from March 2005 to September 2022. Performed Granger causality tests and impulse response functions analysis indicate that an increase in real GDP, domestic credit and tourist arrivals increases house prices in Croatia while an increase in consumer prices and interest rate reduces them.

Assessing the impact of urban expansion on carbon emission

Urban expansion is not only a driving force for economic growth and development but also a perilous element for anthropogenic carbon emission coinciding with population growth, urban expansion, land use pattern, urban sprawl. The study compares urban expansion and its impact on the carbon emission pattern for Rajshahi, a city of Bangladesh where land cover data is an important determinant. At first, the study aims to evaluate the pattern of urban expansion and the second step quantifies the carbon emission trend. The satellite images are used for land cover detection of urban expansion and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm is applied for its classification. Similar carbon emission data are examined to relate carbon emission quantification rate by remote sensing algorithm. It indicates that urban expansion significantly explains carbon emission by comparing with similar secondary data to extract carbon emission and energy consumption. After accentuating urban expansion and carbon emission rate, the spatiotemporal pattern is analyzed in 16 different directions revealing that the urban expansion and emission trend expands to north-western and north-eastern directions of Rajshahi, turning it into a low carbon absorbed city. The responsible landmarks are real estate housing complex, educational institutions, student dormitories, industrial areas, brickfields and mango wholesale business. In order to understand the effects of uncontrolled urban expansion, this study will assist policymakers and urban planners in developing a comprehensive and well-organized strategy.

Do surging house prices discourage fertility? Global evidence, 1870–2012

This paper examines the relationship between house prices and fertility rates during the global fertility transition. We establish an analytical framework that considers the complementary nature of children and housing, leading to the hypothesis of a negative effect of house prices on fertility when they are highly complementary. We utilize a newly published house prices dataset spanning 1870 to 2012, covering multiple countries, and employ fixed effect and dynamic panel estimations to address identification challenges including unobserved heterogeneity and dynamic effects. Results show that surging house prices discourage fertility, with a ten percent increase in real house prices associated with a reduction of 0.01 to 0.03 births per woman. These effects are comparable to the impact of increased female education. Our findings offer insights into the evolving patterns of global fertility trends, underscoring the role of increased housing costs in shaping demographic changes.

주택매매시장에서의 거품에 관한 실증연구

This study examines the monthly real house price index movements over the period 1986-2023 using the GSADF method to determine whether bubbles existed in the Korean housing market, where they occurred, when they occurred, and how long they lasted by housing type (total, apartment, detached house, and townhouse). We summarise the main findings from our empirical analysis as follows. First, there were multiple bubbles in housing prices across the nationwide, Seoul, and all provincial metropolitan areas. However, there are many differences in how bubbles occurred across regions and types of housing. Second, the post-bubble period lasted much longer in the detached house market than in the apartment and row house markets. Third, many housing market bubbles occurred during periods of abundant liquidity. Fourth, while most bubbles are positive, appearing during periods of rapid house price appreciation, negative bubbles appeared in some areas (Busan, Gwangju, and Ulsan) during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Fifth, the detached house markets in Busan and Ulsan are found to be bubbling at the end of the sample (December 2023). These results suggest that the GSADF test can not only detect historical bubble periods, but can also detect bubbles in real time, providing early warning of bubbles.

Project Environmental Factors, And Performance of Real Estate Development Housing Projects in Kenya; A Case of Real Estate Construction Housing Projects in Busia County, Kenya

This study aimed at providing practical strategies for reducing the influence of environmental factors on real estate housing building projects in Busia County. Data for this study was collected via focus groups, interview schedules, and questionnaires. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Respondents indicated agreement on a Likert scale that project environmental elements affect the success of real estate building housing projects in Busia County. The data analysis of the research indicated that project environmental variables somewhat impacted the performance of these projects. The research participants' views indicated a strong positive correlation (r=0.779) between Project Environmental Factors and Performance of real estate building housing projects in Busia County, with a statistically significant p-value of 0.000 < α=0.05. This indicates a strong correlation between the two variables, which back the alternative hypothesis and dismisses the null hypothesis.

Does monetary policy contribute to housing price booms? Empirical evidence from the US economy

Purpose This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US. Design/methodology/approach Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis. Findings The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA. Originality/value This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

Subjectification as an ideal tenant. Competing for housing in the Viennese private rental market

Despite its reputation as a ‘paradise for renters,’ housing seekers in Vienna also face increasing difficulties in finding affordable housing, especially in the private rental housing market. We examine how competitive housing search, application, and allocation shape the subjectivities of housing seekers. Drawing on interviews with landlords, real estate agents and housing seekers in the Viennese private rental market, we analyse the suggestions of subjectivity housing seekers face and how they appropriate—enact, negotiate, or contest—these subjectivities. The study shows that housing seekers must sense and enact an ideal tenant to increase their chances of successfully accessing housing. The various modes of subjectification clustered around this image of the ideal tenant—being solvent, caring for the apartment, not being a foreigner, and invoking a good ‘gut feeling’—show that increased competition not only makes access to affordable housing more difficult, but also has normative effects.

The 3 Decades Global Financial Policy Failure in Housing Market, Runaway Home Prices, Today’s Growing Homeless Crisis: Eddison Walters Real Estate Housing Technology Structural Change Transformational Theory

Failure to address technological-driven structural changes in the real estate market that began three decades ago has caused runaway home prices that developed countries are experiencing today. The real estate crash that preceded the Global Financial Crisis, and the entire Global Financial Crisis resulted from the panic that was created about the rapid increase in home prices that was falsely labeled a real estate bubble by the media which was quickly adapted by policymakers. Policymakers and the media blamed greedy mortgage brokers for the rapid increase in home prices, accusing mortgage brokers of providing mortgages to too many people for homes that the borrowers could not afford. It turns out that the media and policymakers were completely wrong when mortgage brokers were falsely blamed for creating a real estate bubble because a real estate bubble never existed. The true cause of the rapid increase in home prices was the early stages of a real estate boom from technological-driven structural changes in the real estate market. Failure to address structural changes in the real estate housing market which started three decades ago, has resulted in runaway home prices in the United States and developed countries around the world. As a result of the failure widespread economic hardship from homelessness is a significant risk as working families find themselves priced out of the housing market. Three decades of economic policy failures and the mismanagement of the housing sector have resulted in a looming housing crisis that continues to increase as developed countries face runaway home prices. Policymakers throughout developed countries eagerly accepted the media-driven misinformation of a real estate bubble without any evidence presented supporting the narrative. The failure of policymakers to gain an understanding of factors that have been driving the rapid increase in home prices which began three decades ago, resulted in the real estate crash, Global Financial Crisis, and Great Recession. Much of the economic hardship and the looming housing crisis facing working families today could have been avoided. For many working American families, the prospect of home ownership no longer exists due to skyrocketing home prices. The looming homeless crisis facing the developed world today is the direct result of economic policy failures that have ignored the structural changes in the housing market for three decades. The move from print media real estate listings to online real estate listings and the adaptation of online mortgage loan applications along with automated mortgage underwriting between 1995 and 1999, exponentially increased the quantity of inventory needed in the housing market of developed countries. The shift in the demand curve for housing structurally changed the housing market in developed countries resulting in the complete transformation that saw the demand for housing skyrocket by 2000. New homebuyers who previously only had access to local housing markets before the transformation of the housing market began in 1995, had full access to homes listed anywhere online in other real estate markets by the end of 1999. The increased demand caused the rapid growth in home prices. Failure to implement policies to drastically increase home inventory in developed countries to address the structural transformation of the housing market which drastically increased the demand for homes was a significant economic policy failure. Instead of implementing policies to significantly increase home inventory, new construction was idle for over a decade as policymakers adopted the media-driven misinformation of a real estate bubble and supported policies to address the nonexistent real estate bubble.

Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada

This paper investigates the relative importance and effect of conventional and unconventional Canadian monetary policy surprises on housing prices. Using a credible approach to identify structural monetary policy shocks in Canada and a comprehensive Bayesian VAR model to analyze their effects on financial and macroeconomic variables, we find that both conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing shocks have a significant and persistent effect on housing prices in Canada. However, the inflationary effect of a quantitative easing shock is more pronounced than that of an easing target monetary policy surprise. Specifically, the peak effect of a 25-basis point expansionary conventional monetary policy shock is a 2.30% increase in real housing prices while a comparable quantitative easing surprise leads to a peak of 4.56% increase in real housing prices. We conclude that expansionary monetary policy in various forms has had significant inflationary effects on Canadian housing prices. But quantitative easing surprises stand out as the most prominent contributory factor to the escalating Canadian real estate price. Quantitative easing impact consistently outweighs the effects of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks.

A rising tide lifts all homes? Housing consumption trends for low-income households since the 1980s

This study analyzes patterns of housing consumption and expenditures among low-income households since 1985. For households in the bottom income quintile, real monthly housing expenditures have risen from $605 to $1,045. However, these increased expenditures partially reflect housing quantity improvements, including more square footage, more rooms, and larger lot sizes. The data also show a marked improvement in housing quality, such as fewer sagging roofs, broken appliances, rodents, and peeling paint. The housing quality for low-income households improved across all 35 indicators we can measure. These quality improvements equate to between a 34 to 43 percent increase in housing consumption and suggest that a typical low-income household in 2021 experiences housing quality equivalent to the average national household in 1985. Though relative housing consumption has remained similar, this “rising tide” of housing may have additional benefits for the well-being of families and children living in better housing.

Research on Real Estate Batch Evaluation Based on Spatial Econometric Model

This article studies the real estate batch evaluation model in Yuzhong District, Chongqing City. By analyzing 350 real second-hand housing listing data in October 2023 as sample data, a feature price model is established and a spatial econometric model is constructed based on the regression results to seek the most suitable model for batch evaluation of second-hand housing in Yuzhong District, Chongqing City. The results show that there is a significant spatial correlation between sample data, and both the spatial error model and spatial lag model in the spatial econometric model have improved the evaluation results of the traditional feature price model. However, the spatial lag model has the best performance in all indicators. Applying the spatial econometric model to real estate batch evaluation can improve the accuracy and fairness of the evaluation results.

Türkiye’nin Gelenek Dışı Para Politikasının Lisanssız Güneş Santrallerinin Kârlılığı Üzerine Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi

Türkiye’s unorthodox monetary policy implemented between September 2021 and June 2023 affected many macroeconomic indicators including inflation. Turkish Central Bank’s (CBRT) continuous lowering of the policy interest rate increased the negative real interest rate constantly. As a result, households invested in alternative assets including housing, foreign currency and gold in order to hedge against inflation. This increase in demand soared real estate prices. Besides, land is an important cost item for solar power plant investments. Considering the linear relationship between land prices and housing prices, this paper investigates the effect of the increase in housing prices on the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of 37 unlicensed solar power plant projects in Türkiye. According to the results, a correlation of -0.97 was determined between the real interest rate and housing price index in Türkiye. In addition, a correlation of 0.20 was found between housing price index and the CAPEX of unlicensed solar power plants. This situation indicates that the increase in housing prices primarily due to the unorthodox monetary policy might adversely affected the profitability of unlicensed solar power plants, since CAPEX is an important factor affecting the profitability. Although the unconventional monetary policy has been abandoned as of July 2023, the negative effects of this policy on the economy, especially inflation, still continue. Policies and practices that would increase the profitability of solar power plants will make significant contribution to the renewable energy investors and Türkiye's green transition. In this context, development and issuance of carbon development credits under the voluntary carbon market standards such as Global Carbon Council (GCC) Standard and International Carbon Standard (ICR) presents additionality to support solar power plant investors and help the country to reach her carbon neutrality target.