Real Exchange Rate Appreciation Research Articles

A test of the tourism Dutch disease hypothesis in developing countries

In this study, we examine whether tourism can appreciate real exchange rates in developing countries. We use Fiji as a case study with annual data from 1980 to 2019. We apply the recently developed Fourier ARDL model which automatically corrects for the effects of structural breaks. The results indicate that tourism entails real exchange rate appreciation pressure. This effect is present with positive tourism shocks in expansionary periods. Tourism exerts a marginally stronger downward pressure on real exchange rates with negative tourism shocks during recessionary periods. Negative tourism shocks in expansions and positive tourism shocks in recessions do not influence real exchange rates. The implication is that whether tourism leads to an appreciation of real exchange rates depends on the relevant phase of the business cycle.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

In recent years, a new strand of the literature argued that not the quantity, but the quality of exports is at the core of economic growth and development. Therefore, strategies aiming to improve the quality of exports should be a major concern for policy makers. One of the most important policy tools that could affect exports and their quality is the real effective exchange rate. However, connections between the quality of exports and real effective exchange rate have not been fully explored. Based on a panel data of 57 countries for the years between 2005 and 2015, this paper investigates the relationship between export sophistication and real effective exchange rate. Using a novel database of export sophistication, taking into account two different real effective exchange rate indices and utilizing a dynamic panel data methodology, namely system GMM, this paper shows that an appreciation in real effective exchange rate improves the sophistication of exports. In addition, empirical results also show that the initial income of countries, foreign direct investment, human capital, and domestic savings positively affect export sophistication, whereas population growth decreases the sophistication of exports.

Fluctuations of the Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of the Iraqi Economy

This paper analyzes how a boom in the oil sector affects the relative prices of non-tradable goods compared to tradable goods, the real exchange rate, and the competitiveness of Iraq’s broader economy. As the oil sector booms, Iraq’s currency appreciates, which reduces the competitiveness of the country’s traditional export sectors. This thesis investigates the presence of Dutch Disease in Iraq, an area previously unexplored. It evaluates the impact of growing oil revenues on the non-oil sectors of the economy and provides empirical evidence showing a contraction in the tradable goods sector and an appreciation of the real exchange rate. The findings suggest that Iraq experienced symptoms of Dutch Disease, including real exchange rate appreciation, a shrinking tradable goods sector, and an expanding non-tradable goods sector. Ultimately, the appreciation of the real exchange rate is responsible for shifting Iraq‘s economy from manufacturing and agriculture (tradable sectors) to construction and services (non-tradable sectors).

The dark side of the boom: Dutch disease, competition with China, and technological upgrading in Colombian manufacturing

The natural resource boom of the 2000s spurred growth in income and consumption in many commodity-exporting nations. However, this paper brings together a previously unused combination of data sets from Colombia to document evidence of a downside – the currency appreciation associated with this boom led to a significant and persistent decline in R&D spending and in investment in technological upgrading by Colombian manufacturing firms. Our empirical strategy exploits differences in firms' sales across products and export destinations to create firm-specific measures of exposure to exchange rate shocks both abroad and at home. We link these new measurements of exchange rate exposure with Colombian micro data on R&D investment and technology upgrading. The key finding is that real exchange rate appreciation drives significant reductions in both firm-level R&D investment and a measure of technology upgrading that includes expenditure on capital goods, technology licensing, worker training, and other expenditures related to the adoption of new technology. Even after key commodity prices dropped significantly in the mid-2010s, inducing a substantial and long-lasting Colombian currency depreciation, investments in R&D and technology upgrading remained at subdued levels. Our estimated effects suggest that the resource boom and associated appreciation had a significant and persistent negative effect on technological development of Colombian manufacturing firm, and these conclusions remain even after careful attempts to simultaneously control for rising competition with Chinese manufacturers, which also had a negative effect on Colombian firms' technology investments, and the effects of trade liberalization at home and abroad. Similarities between Colombia and other commodity-exporters suggest that the effects documented in this paper may be widespread.

The Dutch disease revisited: consistency of theory and evidence

The Dutch disease literature reveals several gaps between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions. To bridge such gaps, I develop a model that accounts for uneven spillovers of technological progress from the resource sector to other domestic sectors. I then employ a dynamic panel approach to align the theory with the data. I find that the real exchange rate appreciation resulting from a resource boom (i.e., the spending channel) is more pronounced in resource-poor countries than in resource-rich countries. Additionally, the resource movement channel exhibits differences between resource-rich and resource-poor countries. In resource-rich countries, a resource boom reduces the growth rate in the manufacturing sector more than in the service sector, leading to a decrease in relative sectoral output and a slowdown in economic growth. On the other hand, in resource-poor countries, a resource boom accelerates the growth of the manufacturing sector and decelerates the growth of the service sector, resulting in an increase in relative sectoral output and economic growth.

Effects of real effective exchange rate volatility on export earnings in Ethiopia: Symmetric and asymmetric effect analysis

The exchange rate is one of the key monetary policy instruments used to dictate the economy. However, the effect of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic outcomes has been a subject of debate in previous research. Thus, this study examined the effects of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on Ethiopia's export earnings using quarterly data covering 2007 to 2021. The GARCH model is employed to estimate the volatility of the real effective exchange rate, and its effect is examined at the aggregate and disaggregate levels. Disaggregation is made at commodity and partner country levels. Besides these, the study also examined the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the three categories of export earnings. To estimate the effects, both the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models are employed. The short-run ARDL result shows that the real effective exchange rate and its volatility affect export earnings only in a few cases. Real effective exchange rate appreciation is significant and reduces total export earnings and export earnings from vegetables, meat, and oilseed-related products. Similarly, exchange rate volatility reduces total export earnings and earnings from coffee, vegetables, and meat-related products. At the aggregate level, the NARDL result shows that exchange rate volatility has an asymmetric effect on total export earnings. Positive volatility reduces total export earnings, while negative volatility is not significant. At the commodity level, volatility also has an asymmetric effect on earnings from coffee and meat exports in the short run. However, in the long run, there is no asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on total and commodity-level export earnings. In terms of the country of destination, there is no strong evidence of the effect of real effective exchange rate appreciation and its volatility on export earnings. Thus, policies that stabilize the volatility of the exchange rate are needed in Ethiopia in order to enhance export earnings.

Oil discovery, boom‐bust cycle and manufacturing slowdown: Evidence from a large industry level dataset

AbstractWe investigate the effects of giant oil discovery and boom‐bust price cycle on manufacturing using a large dataset of up to 49,481 two‐digit industry‐years across 136 countries over the period 1962 to 2012. We find that oil discovery reduces growth in manufacturing value added and wages. The effect on employment is insignificant. We also find strong association between oil discovery and manufacturing slowdown episodes. Oil price boom and bust both negatively affects manufacturing perhaps due to increasing input cost (boom) and declining demand (bust). We do not find any evidence in favour of a real exchange rate appreciation driven effect as outlined in standard Dutch Disease models. We speculate that the effect is primarily driven by an increase in the cost of locally sourced manufacturing input.

Foreign aid, debt interest repayments and Dutch disease effects in a real exchange rate model for African countries

The international competitiveness of developing countries is integral to their economic development; hence understanding the main determinants of the real exchange rate is important. The empirical literature supports the Dutch disease hypothesis that foreign aid inflows significantly contribute to a real appreciation of African currencies, but these studies do not account for the downward pressure on the exchange rate from foreign currency payments. Using a panel of sub-Saharan African countries from 1980 to 2017, we test the hypothesis that the real exchange rate appreciation from aid inflows is moderated by interest repayments on external debt. Our findings suggest that one-third of the Dutch disease effect of aid inflows on the real exchange rate is offset by external debt interest repayments. These findings are important in showing that countries with external debt servicing obligations can mitigate the Dutch disease effect of aid inflows on competitiveness.

Sectoral implications of policy induced household credit expansions

This paper analyses the sectoral implications of household credit expansions in a two-sector open economy model. In the model, policy-induced expansion in banks’ willingness and ability to lend to households results in new lending, boosting aggregate demand and average wages in the nontradable sector. Under fixed relative wages and mark-up pricing in the tradable sector, wage pressures translate into inflationary pressures. The inflation-targeting central bank increases the policy rate to contain inflationary pressures. This intervention causes a real exchange rate appreciation, followed by a reduction in international competitiveness and a contraction of the tradable sector output. This way, the model illustrates that consumer credit expansions can trigger premature deindustrialisation, shifting the sectoral structure away from the high-productivity tradable sector towards the lower-productivity nontradable sector. Key macroeconomic developments from the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2013 are presented to motivate the model.

Financial heterogeneity and monetary union

During the 2010–12 eurozone crisis, deviations of price and wage dynamics from those implied by canonical Phillips curves were systematically related to differences in financial strains across countries. Most notably, markups in financially “weak” (periphery) countries rose, while those in financially “strong” (core) countries declined. In a monetary union model, where financial frictions interact with the firms’ pricing decisions because of customer-market considerations, firms in the periphery maintain cashflows in response to an adverse financial shock by raising markups in both domestic and export markets, while firms in the core reduce markups, undercutting their financially constrained competitors to gain market share. In this framework, a unilateral fiscal-devaluation-style policy by the periphery stabilizes the local economy by improving the condition of firm balance sheets and by boosting household demand—it does not, however, reverse the real exchange rate appreciation in the periphery.

Commodity currency reactions and the Dutch disease: the role of capital controls.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-023-02423-9.

Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies

We analyse the transmission mechanism of commodity price shocks in inflation targeting emerging economies. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that for a commodity exporter, the shock causes a real exchange rate appreciation, increases in output, inflation, the nominal interest rate and the trade balance, and a fall in the unemployment rate. The mechanism underlying the dynamics driving the VAR can be understood using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Search and matching frictions in the labour market and the conduct of monetary policy are key for the model to match the data.

The Asymmetric Effect of Political Risk and Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in South Africa

Most developing countries rely heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for economic growth and stability. However, political risk and the foreign exchange rate could direly affect FDI inflows as investors seek stable markets. The most recent example of political risk interactions, the exchange rate and FDI has been the trade war between the United States (US) and China, where the US increased tariffs on Chinese goods worth over $16 billion. A crucial debate is needed regarding the importance of FDI inflows in developing countries, such as South Africa. FDI is observed as a crucial component in providing resources, and it is critical in facilitating globalisation and providing financial assistance to countries in need, especially developing countries such as South Africa. This study aimed to examine the long- and short-run effects of political risk ratings and foreign exchange rate fluctuations on FDI inflows in South Africa. The literature review provided evidence of long- and short-term relationships between political risk ratings, the real effective exchange rate, and the GDP's balancing variable on the dependent FDI inflows. The study utilised both the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to analyse quarterly data from 1995 to 2020. The Variables included in the study were political risk, the real effective exchange rate, FDI inflows and GDP. The study revealed that political risk ratings and the real effective exchange rate have long-run effects on FDI inflows. The real effective exchange rate has an asymmetric long-run effect. It was also found that FDI inflows respond more to real effective exchange depreciations than real effective exchange rate appreciations, implying that the exchange rate is an important economic factor in explaining the investment inflows. Consequently, the study recommends that policymakers deploy responsive policy measures to deal with currency fluctuations and political instability. In South Africa, the negative effect of political risk affects FDI and impacts the overall country risk ratings and the country's ability to borrow. The study also recommends that further research be employed to understand other impacts on FDI inflows and the interaction of political risk and the real effective exchange rate on other critical economic factors.

The real exchange rate and services export diversification

PurposeThe relationship between real exchange rate and services export diversification is at the heart of this study.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is performed using a sample of 113 countries over the period 1985–2014, and the 2-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. The analysis uses both the Theil index and Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.FindingsThe analysis shows that over the full sample, the real effective exchange rate appreciation induces a greater services export diversification. This outcome applies to high-income countries and developing countries. However, the positive effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration is lower in least developed countries than in other countries. Finally, the effect of the appreciation of the real exchange rate on services export concentration in tax haven countries depends on the indicator of services export concentration, as this is positive for the Theil index and negative for the Herfindahl–Hirschman index of services export concentration.Research limitations/implicationsThese findings highlight the strong influence of real exchange policies on countries' path of services export diversification.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this topic is being addressed in the empirical literature for the first time.

The Dark Side of the Boom: The Impact of Foreign Competition on R&D and Technology Upgrading

The natural resource boom of the 2000s spurred growth in income and consumption in commodity-exporting nations. However, this paper brings together a previously unused combination of data sets from Colombia to document evidence of a downside -- the currency appreciation associated with this boom led to a significant decline in R&D and technological upgrading of Colombian manufacturing firms. Our empirical strategy exploits differences in firms’ sales across products and export destinations to create firm-specific measurements of exchange rate appreciation that gauge firms’ exposure to exchange rate shocks both abroad and at home. We link these new measurements of exposure with Colombian micro data on R&D investment and technology upgrading. The key finding is that real exchange rate appreciation drives significant reductions in firm-level R&D investment and a broader measurement of technology upgrading that includes expenditure on machinery, equipment, and ICTs. The estimated effects are quite large: a one-standard deviation increase in the real exchange rate (a shift that lies well within the experience of some firms over our sample period) induces a R&D investment reduction of 12% to 43% and a technology upgrading reduction of 18.8% to 37.6%, depending on the specification. Currency appreciation generally exposes Colombian manufacturing firms to greater foreign competition, but we find the firms that experienced greater exposure to Chinese competition saw even greater declines in R&D. Our estimated effects suggest that the resource boom and associated appreciation could have a significant and persistent negative effect on the productivity growth and technological development of Colombian manufacturing firms. Similarities between Colombia and other commodity-exporters suggest that these effects may be widespread.

Impossible Trinity in a Small Open Economy: A State–Space Model Simulation

Should monetary policy independence be maintained when the exchange rate is fixed under closed capital account conditions in a small open economy? In this study, we simulate the impossible trinity condition during 1989 to 2019 on the Nepalese economy that restricts capital flows and fixes the exchange rate with India. We modify the traditional Taylor rule based on the monetary policy reaction function to characterize Nepal's economic conditions more closely. The state–space model simulation shows that the policy trilemma does not hold in Nepal, such that the model can predict interest rate when the weight for domestic conditions is assigned at a substantially lower level. Therefore, the existing policy mix may need to be revisited to maintain monetary policy independence. Nepal might consider devaluing its currency to neutralize the adverse effects of the negative risk premium and ameliorate the real exchange rate appreciation in the short run and explore alternative arrangements in the long run.

The Marshall Lerner Condition and Money Demand: A Note

What are the respective effects of a unit increase in money demand on the real exchange rate and on the current account, all else equal? The real exchange rate is known to appreciate, but the current account need not deteriorate, as the canonical Marshall Lerner condition instead seems to suggest. As this work presents, the current account deteriorates by virtue of a real exchange appreciation due to a fall in the real money supply, all else equal, and vice versa; it further specifies that the current account improves by virtue of a real exchange rate appreciation due to a rise in money demand, all else equal, and vice versa.

The impact of real exchange rates on real stock prices

PurposeThe study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach.FindingsThe asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2008–2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies.Research limitations/implicationsEconomic variables are important in the determination of stock prices.Originality/valueIt is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.

Real exchange rates and remittance inflows in Jamaica

Large remittance inflows (remittances) can have several positive economic impacts, but they can also lead to real exchange rate appreciation and a loss of international competitiveness for recipient countries, or the Dutch disease effect of remittances. Using Jamaican data from 1977 to 2019, we test for the existence of this effect. After applying autoregressive bounds and Granger causality testing, we arrive at three findings. First, there is a long run cointegrating relationship running from remittances to the real exchange rate, where 64% of any perturbation from this relationship is corrected within one year. Second, we find that a 1% increase in remittances leads to a 0.53% appreciation of the real exchange rate in the long run. The Dutch disease effect exists in Jamaica. Third, consistent with the long run results, we find that remittances Granger cause the real exchange rate in the short run. An important policy implication of our findings is that the Jamaican government should channelize remittances to capital investment in the tradeable sector, while focusing on improving trade competitiveness to compensate for the deterioration of the country's terms of trade due to remittances’ impact on the real exchange rate.

On the asymmetric effect of real exchange rate on growth: Evidence from Africa

Purpose ― This study investigates the asymmetric effect of real exchange rates on the economic growth of twenty African countries for the period 2005 to 2019. Design/Method/Approach ― A refined method of Granger and Yoon (2002) was used to decompose real exchange into appreciation and depreciation. To address the problem of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, a two-steps system generalized method of moments, Driscoll-Kraay estimator, and Augmented Mean group were used. Findings ― This study established the presence of asymmetries in the real exchange rate in the region. Further, the study found that real exchange rate appreciation inhibits economic growth while real exchange rate depreciation is beneficial to growth in the region. The results are robust to different estimation techniques. Practical Implications ― The outcome of this study supports the traditional view of exchange rates on macroeconomic variables. Hence, findings from this study can help investors and policymakers in the region to better understand the dynamics of the exchange rate and its effect on economic growth. Originality/Value ― This study enriches the literature on the relationship between exchange rate and growth, especially in Africa using a refined approach to decompose exchange rate into appreciation and depreciation.