Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies

Abstract

We analyse the transmission mechanism of commodity price shocks in inflation targeting emerging economies. Using a panel vector autoregression, we find that for a commodity exporter, the shock causes a real exchange rate appreciation, increases in output, inflation, the nominal interest rate and the trade balance, and a fall in the unemployment rate. The mechanism underlying the dynamics driving the VAR can be understood using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Search and matching frictions in the labour market and the conduct of monetary policy are key for the model to match the data.