Real Election Research Articles

Comment on “Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud”

“Benford's Law and the Detection of Election Fraud” raises doubts about whether a test based on the mean of the second significant digit of vote counts equals 4.187 is useful as a test for the occurrence of election fraud. The paper mistakenly associates such a test with Benford's Law, considers a simulation exercise that has no apparent relevance for any actual election, applies the test to inappropriate levels of aggregation, and ignores existing analysis of recent elections in Russia. If tests based on the second significant digit of precinct-level vote counts are diagnostic of election fraud, the tests need to use expectations that take into account the features of ordinary elections, such as strategic actions. Whether the tests are useful for detecting fraud remains an open question, but approaching this question requires an approach more nuanced and tied to careful analysis of real election data than one sees in the discussed paper.

On the empirical relevance of the transient in opinion models

While the number and variety of models to explain opinion exchange dynamics is huge, attempts to justify the model results using empirical data are relatively rare. As linking to real data is essential for establishing model credibility, this Letter develops an empirical confirmation experiment by which an opinion model is related to real election data. The model is based on a representation of opinions as a vector of k bits. Individuals interact according to the principle that similarity leads to interaction and interaction leads to still more similarity. In the comparison to real data we concentrate on the transient opinion profiles that form during the dynamic process. An artificial election procedure is introduced which allows to relate transient opinion configurations to the electoral performance of candidates for which data are available. The election procedure based on the well-established principle of proximity voting is repeatedly performed during the transient period and remarkable statistical agreement with the empirical data is observed.

Predicting Election Outcomes from Positive and Negative Trait Assessments of Candidate Images

Conventional wisdom, and a growing body of behavioral research, suggests that the nonverbal image of a candidate influences voter decision making. We presented subjects with images of political candidates and asked them to make four trait judgments based solely on viewing the photographs. Subjects were asked which of the two faces exhibited more competence, attractiveness, deceitfulness, and threat, which are arguably four of the most salient attributes that can be conveyed by faces. When we compared our subjects' choices to the actual election outcomes, we found that the candidates chosen as more likely to physically threaten the subjects actually lost 65% of the real elections. As expected, our findings support the conclusions of Todorov, Mandisodza, Goren, and Hall (2005) by showing a positive correlation between the competence judgments and the real election outcomes. Surprisingly, attractiveness was correlated with losing elections, with the effect being driven by faces of candidates who looked politically incompetent yet personally attractive. Our findings have implications for future research on negative political communication, as they suggest that both threatening first impressions and fleeting impressions of attractiveness can harm a candidate's electoral chances.

INVESTIGATION OF ELECTION RESULTS, NUMBERS OF PARTY MEMBERS, AND OPINION POLLS IN GERMANY

Our publication focuses on two different but related topics in politics: in the first part of this publication, we investigate the influence of election results in the elections for the parliaments of the German states and for the German Diet (federal parliament) on the member numbers of the largest parties in the various states. In the second part of this publication, we consider the correlations between opinion polls and election results and focus on the question whether real election results can be predicted by opinion polls.

Assessing partisan bias in voting technology: The case of the 2004 New Hampshire recount

Following allegations that Accuvote optical scan machines used in New Hampshire during the 2004 presidential election produced unusually low vote totals for Democratic candidate John Kerry, third party candidate Ralph Nader requested and funded a hand recount of ballots cast in eleven New Hampshire precincts. Using statistical methods well-suited for identifying election irregularities, we find no evidence of systematic biases among New Hampshire's Accuvote machines. Nor do we find evidence of other technology-related tabulation problems in the state. Our findings explain why the New Hampshire presidential recount did not substantiate alleged Accuvote discrepancies, and indeed it recovered more votes for George W. Bush than it did for Kerry. More generally, our analysis demonstrates methods that can help avoid false allegations about vote fraud while enabling concerned citizens, election administrators, and researchers to find and remedy real election irregularities.

Do Trade Union Leaders Violate Subjective Expected Utility? Some Insights From Experimental Data

This paper presents the results of two experiments designed to test violations of Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT) within a sample of Italian trade union delegates and leaders. Subjects priced risky and ambiguous prospects in the domain of gains. Risky prospects were based on games of chance, while ambiguous prospects were built on the standard Ellsberg paradox and on event lotteries whose outcomes were based either on the results of a fictional election or on the future results of the 1999 European Parliamentary election in Italy and the U.K. The experiments show that, although risky prospects were priced at their expected values on average, trade union delegates and leaders did violate SEUT when assessing ambiguous prospects. Moreover, their behaviour depended on the source of uncertainty (Ellsberg paradox vs. electoral results; fictional vs. real election; Italy vs. U.K. election outcomes). We discuss the implications of these results for the economic theory of the trade union.

From Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote

Yogi Berra might have said it: the best predictor of an election is, well, an election. Not a trial-heat conducted by opinion polls, but a real election of voters going to the polls. In the U.S., at least, what is known as a “general” election is preceded by a “primary” election, and that has been the case for presidential contests since 1912. So is the voting in presidential primaries a leading indicator of the vote in November? Remarkably so, as it turns out. How well presidential candidates do in primary elections foretells their prospects in the November election with great accuracy. What is more, the use of primaries as a vote predictor makes it possible to include in the forecast model both the candidate of the incumbent party and the candidate of the party out of the White House. The forecast for 2004 uses candidate vote shares in primaries, not just a win-lose dichotomy as done in the model used to predict the vote in 2000 (Norpoth 2001).

A Real Election at Last (Courtesy of the Australian Media)

A Real Election at Last (Courtesy of the Australian Media)

Tax evasion as ade facto vote of disapproval of PAC contributions

In this study, it is hypothesized that higher (rising) real PAC election campaign contributions may lead the public to increasingly distrust and resent politicians because of the perceived political influence that these contributions exercise. It is further hypothesized that to express that distrust and resentment, the public may make greater efforts to evade income taxation so as to deny tax revenues to the Treasury and “influence-peddling” politicians. Instrumenatal Variable (IV) estimates in first differences that allow for income tax rates, IRS audit rates, IRS penalty assessments on detected unreported income, and the public's dissatisfaction with government per se, find strong, albeit only preliminary, empirical evidence that tax evasion is an increasing function of real PAC election campaign contributions.

The Newcastle Election of 1830

FEWERTHANA THIRDof the two hundred and thirty-nine English and Welsh constituencies were in the 1830 general election, and even after the 1832 Reform Act a considerable proportion of seats were to remain uncontested at general elections. 1A spirit of political compromise existed in a large number of two-member constituencies, where the representation was divided between men of differing political principles. Over and above the probable expense of an election contest, which was a considerable deterrent, aspiring new candidates faced the difficulty of establishing an election organization of committees and agents. Often candidates conducted thorough preliminary canvasses and thereby determined that it would not be worthwhile proceeding to a poll. In relation to this latter practice, it has been argued that 'to consider as contested only constituencies where votes were recorded is misleading'. 2 The election at Newcastle upon Tyne in 1830demonstrates the importance of not ignoring ostensibly uncontested elections, since they can make the local political scene seem deceptively tranquil. Sir Matthew White Ridley, a Whig of the old school, and John Hodgson, a moderate Tory, were officially elected by the free burgesses of Newcastle at a meeting held in the Guildhall on 30 July, upon which occasion Cuthbert Ellison, who had represented the town in Parliament with Ridley since 1812, thanked his constituents for their past support and confirmed his retirement on the grounds of his own and his family's health.3 But the real election battle took place seven or eight weeks earlier, when it first became clear that Hodgson was prepared to come forward as a third candidate and stand a poll. Richard Welford provided a ready e~planation of the subsequent course of events: