Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments Research Articles

Investigate the Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in OPEC Member Countries

The effective real exchange rate is one of the variables that can Misalignment from equilibrium values, Performance affects macroeconomic indicators and creates an unstable and uncertain environment in the economy. Therefore, in order to investigate the factors affecting the real effective exchange rate Misalignment in OPEC member countries during the period 1980-1980, first, in the framework of the least dynamic ordinary squares method (DOLS), the effective factors for determining the effective equilibrium effective exchange rate have been investigated and the results confirm the estimation of the positive effects of oil shocks on the intensification of exchange rate Misalignment. Then, the effect of institutional quality indicators and financial development index on exchange rate Misalignment is investigated using the generalized panel method (GMM). The results of estimation at this stage indicate that the financial development index has a positive impact and institutional quality indicators, including; The stability of the state (rule of law), the ability to account democratically (democracy), social and economic conditions (political rights and civil liberties) have had a significant negative effect on the real effective exchange rate Misalignment. Therefore, programs and policies in the countries under study should focus on improving the quality of market regulation, government accountability for its performance, and ensuring political and economic stability.

Real effective exchange rate misalignment and currency crisis in Iran

This study aimed to examine real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment in Iran and its relation to the currency crisis. The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate was employed to calculate the equilibrium exchange rate (EER), and misalignment was obtained using the exchange rate deviation from the equilibrium value. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and data from 1986 to 2019, the long-run relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and REER was estimated. The results show that trade openness, rate of productivity growth in tradable good production, net foreign assets of the central bank, oil exports, and terms of trade significantly affected the EER. Estimation of misalignment and its relationship with the currency crisis show that in the years before the crisis, there was generally a significant overvaluation in several consecutive years; hence, exchange rate misalignment serves as a leading index to predict the probability of a currency crisis.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in East African least developed countries

The behavior of real exchange rate remained an important policy concern for small open economies as its poor management adversely affects their economy with substantial welfare losses. This study examined the main drivers of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment and its effect on the economic growth of East African least developed countries (LDCs). The study applied Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and dynamic OLS estimators for panel and ARDL Bound testing for time series data over the period 1980–2019. The panel results revealed that the REER of LDCs were significantly misaligned for the study period. The REER appreciates for an improved terms of trade and net foreign asset position, while it depreciates for an increased trade openness and broad money supply in the long-run. The panel results also confirmed that the GDP per capita would improve for an increase in real investment and human capital, while it decline for an increase in openness, net foreign aid inflows and REER misalignment in the long-run. The ARDL bound testing results generally support the panel estimation results. In the short-run, the REER misalignment would impede growth of Ethiopia while it promotes growth of Kenya. Thus, the central banks and policy makers of East African LDCs should initiate a consistent macroeconomic policies and regulatory frameworks focusing on the main drivers of equilibrium REER to correct currency misalignment and to support their promising economic growth.

How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries

Abstract The determination of the equilibrium real exchange rate is one of the most important issues in open economy since the policymakers are concerned about predicting and monitoring misalignments and they are usually associated with current account problems and currency crises. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time a study provides empirical evidence on the impact of deviations from the long-run sustainable real exchange rate equilibrium on real economic growth rate applying panel ARDL model (pooled mean group, mean group and dynamic fixed effect estimators) for the 27 European countries during the 2000–2016 period. This study applies the EQCHANGE database developed by Couharde et al. (2017) to obtain the real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignments according to the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach for each country. One of the main objectives is to determine the relationship between REER misalignments and economic growth trying to differentiate between short- and long-run effects. To this purpose, a neoclassical growth model is considered controlling for several economic variables such as gross capital formation, degree of openness, human capital, inflation rate, and population rate.

Nexus Between Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: A Case of Pakistan

This study investigates the nexus between real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment and the economic growth of Pakistan. It relies on a single equation model for estimating equilibrium exchange rate using the autoregressive distributive lags (ARDL) approach. The study further uses the growth equation to explore the effects of misalignment of RER on growth proxies. The data were obtained from the official websites of the World development indicator, IMF, Penn World Table, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, and Ministry of Finance Pakistan. In terms of trade, the data was available on three different bases in different editions of the economic survey of Pakistan. All unit values of imports and exports were changed as per new base 1991 so that the data from editions of survey becomes uniform. The study takes data from 1970 to 2020. The study findings show that gross capital formation, trade openness, and government spending have a substantial role in defining the equilibrium REER. The findings also identify a positive and significant effect of REER misalignment on the economic growth of Pakistan. This paper contributes by measuring the degree of misalignment of real exchange rates using the single equation approach which is rare in the case of Pakistani literature. The single equation approach not only measures the misalignment by PPP factor but also considers basic economic fundamentals such as trade openness, terms of trade, productivity differentials etc. The study further provides evidence of misalignment with economic growth over a longer period (1970-2020). The findings suggest the effective use of exchange rate policy to control exchange rate misalignment to get higher and more sustainable economic growth. The study is useful for policymakers in the long-term economic planning of Pakistan. The results can be generalized for other economies with similar features.

A panel VAR analysis of macro-financial imbalances in the EU

We investigate the interactions across current account misalignments, real effective exchange rate misalignments and financial gaps within EU countries, applying a Bayesian panel Vector Autoregression to 27 EU members over the period 1994–2012. We find that, for the euro area, the reaction of current account misalignments to a shock in the real effective exchange rate misalignments is the largest. In non-euro area countries and euro periphery an increase in current account misalignments leads to a temporary increase in the real effective exchange rate misalignments, lowering competitiveness and thus amplifying current account fluctuations. For the core, increase in the rate or an expansion of the financial gap may help rebalancing the current account. In the central eastern european members, an increase in the real effective exchange rate misalignments may bring larger current account deficits in the medium-long run. Different policies should be applied to different countries in order to reach a balanced current account and to move close to the equilibrium level of the real effective exchange rate, given real and financial fluctuations. The different directions of transmissions are crucial for defining the right path towards equilibrium and they should be taken into account.

How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation

AbstractThis article explores the robustness of Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate models, employed to estimate real effective exchange rate misalignments, to the frequency of the underlying data. It compares misalignments stemming from an annual model, estimated since 1980, and a comparable quarterly model, estimated since 1999. The two sets of estimates are similar. Moreover, the in‐sample power of quarterly REER misalignments in explaining subsequent REER developments is higher than that of the annual estimates. This article therefore suggests that the “optimal” frequency of a BEER model depends on whether its resulting estimates are employed for research purposes or for policy‐making activities.

Nexus between real effective exchange rate misalignment and rubber export in Nigeria

Purpose - This study examines the nexus between the real effective exchange rate misalignment (REERM) and rubber exports in Nigeria. The effects of equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and some economic fundamentals on rubber exports are also investigated. Methods - Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are employed as methods of data analysis. Findings - The results show that a long-run relationship exists between REERM and rubber export. REERM influenced rubber export negatively while ERER had a positive effect on rubber export. The past values of REERM can be used to predict the present volume of rubber export, and the past values of ERER and rubber export can be used to forecast the present values of each other. Trade openness positively influences rubber export while the term of trade has a negative effect on rubber export. Implication - REERM worsens the performance of rubber export in Nigeria while ERER improves its performance. Thus, rubber export can be enhanced through measures such as trade openness, improved term of trade and monitoring of exchange rate to reduce the REERM and maintain a stabilized equilibrium exchange rate system. Originality - This study focuses on the effect of deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium, ERER and economic fundamentals on rubber export which has not been previously investigated.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area

Building upon a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses both the size and the persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments of countries that have adopted the euro and of those outside the euro area. The euro area is indeed a poignant example of a currency union in which the nominal exchange rate is irrevocably fixed; the non-euro area economies considered include countries with either flexible or pegged currencies. While misalignments are found to be smaller in the euro area than in the rest of the world, they are also more persistent; however, the persistence in the euro area has decreased after the global financial crisis. Finally, it is found that improvements in the quality of institutions – observed in particular after 2009 within the euro area – reduce the persistence of misalignments.

Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach

We make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European countries that joined the EU, using data up to 2016. Foreign capital flows, fiscal balance and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. The real effective exchange rate gaps behave in accord with the current account misalignments, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant, the misalignments are larger in boom periods (positive misalignments), whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude. Overall, the countries have moved closer to their equilibria since 2010.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area

Building upon a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals have been affected by the adoption of a single currency. A comparison of real misalignments across different country groupings (euro area, non-euro area, advanced and emerging economies), shows they are smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners. However, in the euro area real disequilibria are also more persistent, although after the global financial crisis the reactivity of real exchange rates to past misalignments increased, and therefore the persistence decreased. In the absence of the nominal adjustment channel, an improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments, plausibly by removing real rigidities.

Dutch disease, real effective exchange rate misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in EU

In this article we study the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignments, based on determinants including different types of foreign capital inflows, on GDP growth in the EU. For this analysis, we use a panel of 27 EU countries for the period 1994–2012, with annual frequency.Core countries have been only slightly undervalued from the crisis onwards, while the periphery was overvalued. However, the gap for the periphery has reduced in the last two years. As regards the new member states, these were overvalued for the entire time span. The results seem to be generally driven by the inflows of bank loans. The misalignments are associated with lower long-run growth. The exchange rate volatilities are not robust in affecting GDP growth, while spillovers and global factors seem to matter in all the specifications both in the short and long run.

A Panel VAR Analysis of Macro-Financial Imbalances in the EU

We investigate the interactions across current account misalignments, Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments and financial (or output) gaps within EU countries. We apply panel techniques, including a Bayesian panel VAR, to 27 EU members over the period 1994-2012. We find that, for the euro area, the reaction of current account misalignments to a shock in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments is the largest and the financial gap can influence the current account misalignments more than the output gap. In non-euro area countries and euro periphery an increase in current account misalignments leads to a temporary increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments, lowering competitiveness and thus amplifying current account fluctuations. For the core, a raise in the rate or an expansion of the financial gap may help in rebalancing the current account. In the CEE members, an increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate misalignments may bring larger current account deficits in the medium-long run.

Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments and Their Effect on GDP Growth in the EU

In this article we study the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignments, based on determinants, including different types of foreign capital inflows, on GDP growth in the EU. This can provide a useful contribution to understanding the causal link between inflows, real effective exchange rate disequilibria and GDP growth during both the boom and the crisis period. For this analysis, we use a panel of 27 EU countries for the period 1994-2012, with annual frequency.We find that the core countries have been mostly undervalued from the crisis onwards, while the periphery (excluding Ireland) were overvalued starting from 2003-2004, as expected. Concerning the new Member States, these are persistently overvalued for the entire time span. The results seem to be generally driven by the inflows of banking loans more than by FDIs or portfolio investments.In the second stage, we study the influence of exchange rate misalignments and volatilities on growth. We argue that the real effective exchange rate misalignments associated with the inflows have been a further cause for decline in GDP, in a long-run perspective, while they do not play a role in the short run. The exchange rate volatilities and the undervaluation dummy are not robust in affecting GDP growth, while spillovers and global factors seem to matter in all the specifications both in the short and long run.

Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments And Their Effect on GDP Growth in the EU

In this article we study the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignments, based on determinants, including different types of foreign capital inflows, on GDP growth in the EU. This can provide a useful contribution to understanding the causal link between inflows, real effective exchange rate disequilibria and GDP growth during both the boom and the crisis period. For this analysis, we use a panel of 27 EU countries for the period 1994–2012, with annual frequency. We find that the core countries have been mostly undervalued from the crisis onwards, while the periphery (excluding Ireland) were overvalued starting from 2003–2004, as expected. Concerning the new Member States, these are persistently overvalued for the entire time span. The results seem to be generally driven by the inflows of banking loans more than by FDIs or portfolio investments. In the second stage, we study the influence of exchange rate misalignments and volatilities on growth. We argue that the real effective exchange rate misalignments associated with the inflows have been a further cause for decline in GDP, in a long-run perspective, while they do not play a role in the short run. The exchange rate volatilities and the undervaluation dummy are not robust in affecting GDP growth, while spillovers and global factors seem to matter in all the specifications both in the short and long run.

Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments and Their Effect on GDP Growth in the EU

Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments and Their Effect on GDP Growth in the EU

Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

AbstractThe European debt crisis has revealed severe imbalances within the Euro area, sparking a debate about the magnitude of those imbalances, in particular concerning real effective exchange rate misalignments. We use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member state in order to identify the degree of these misalignments. We find that crisis countries are best described as a combination of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual real effective exchange rate with those of the counterfactuals gives evidence of misalignments before the outbreak of the crisis: all peripheral countries appear strongly and significantly overvalued.

Current Account and Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: An Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach

Using the IMF Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues methodology, we make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European Countries that joined the EU between 2004 and 2014. We present results for the “Macroeconomic Balance” approach, which provides a measure of current account equilibrium based on its determinants together with misalignments in real effective exchange rates. We believe that a more refined analysis of the misalignments may useful for the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. This is especially the case for these countries, which have gone through a transition phase and boom/bust periods since their independence. Because such a history may have influenced a country’s performance, any evaluation must take account of each country’s particular characteristics. We use a panel setup of 11 EU new member states (incl. Croatia) for the period 1994-2012 in static and dynamic frameworks, also controlling for the presence of cross-sectional dependence and checking specifically for the role of exchange rate regimes, capital flows and global factors.We find that the estimated coefficients of the determinants meet with expectations. Moreover, the foreign capital flows, the oil balance, and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. Some global factors such as shocks in oil prices or supply might have played a role in worsening the current account balances. Having a pegged exchange rate regime (or being part of the euro zone) affects the current account positively. The real effective exchange rates behave in accord with the current account gaps, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. The current accounts and real effective exchange rates come close to equilibria in 2012 in most of the countries and the rebalancing is completed for some countries that were less misaligned in the past, such as Poland and Czech Republic, but also for Lithuania. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant for these countries, the misalignments are larger in the boom periods (positive misalignments) whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude.

Relevance of Exchange Rates on the Trade Imbalance in the Eurozone

European monetary integration is causing economic imbalances because the optimal currency area criterion is not being properly met. Euro countries are experiencing chronic current account deficits. The purpose of this study is to explore the long-running divergent dynamics of real exchange rates and their determinants and influence. In this estimation, we find that the real effective exchange rate (REER) has a long term equilibrium relation to the balance of current account, the demographic aging effect, and the stage of development effect as a Euro-zone group. Also, we find that individual REER discrepancies have greatly diminished in recent years while the misalignments of individual and group REERs show a steady converging tendency of their equilibrium rates. The co-movement effect on the REER misalignment indicates a weak influence of determinant factors. In addition, the Euro-zone drives the undervalued rate of 3.44% with the current account deficit of 0.08% for the sample period, and the REER misalignment is not closely related to the trade deficit. The results for the future of the Eurozone would imply that the misalignments of currency cooperation members show an increasingly converging tendency of their equilibrium over time, and they also display co-integration regarding the current account balance and development phase as well as population aging.

Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries

We evaluate the growth effects of real effective exchange rate misalignments for the G20 countries over the period 1980-2006. To this end, we first estimate real effective equilibrium exchange rates relying on the behavioral approach BEER, from which misalignments are derived. Second, we estimate a dynamic panel growth model in which among the traditional determinants of growth, our measure of misalignments is included. Our findings put forward some important differences between developed and emerging economies. The magnitude of the misalignments is more pronounced in the case of emerging countries, and the speed of convergence towards the estimated equilibrium exchange rate is slower for industrialized ones. Turning to our growth regression analysis, we find that misalignments have a negative effect on the economic growth. As a consequence, an appropriate exchange rate policy would close the gap between real exchange rates and their equilibrium level.