Deficit Ratio Research Articles

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Quality and Consumption in the Tigris River Basin (Mosul-Baghdad)

Abstract Iraq is one of a riparian country into the basin of Tigris River with (Turkey, Syria, and Iran). The region is currently facing water shortage problems due to climatic changes the rise of the demand on water. The meteorological data was used to estimate the water surplus and water deficit for the period (1990-2021), while the hydrological data was used to show the variation of the flow during the years due to climatic change on the Tigris River basin (2005-2021), and applying the SCS-CN method to estimate the surface runoff. The impact of climate change was estimated by calculating its effect on the physochemical characteristics in the river basin for the period (from January to December\2021) and compared it with standards specifications, in addition to comparing of amount of the water consumption in the Tigris River during the period (2017-2021). The results show a high ratio of water deficit in the downstream of the Tigris River basin due to decreasing the precipitation ratio in these areas. The Rainfall-Runoff-Depth was simulated using the SCS-CN method. The water quality parameters of Tigris River were within the standards of drinking water, except of TDS values at Tharthar-Tigris canal and Baghdad which exceeded the permissible limits. The results show an impact of climatic change on a Tigris River are different but it’s more effects in urban areas due to water consumption of the Tigris River.

Origins of US Inflation

Measuring fiscal pressure on inflation by the ratio of the primary deficit to the outstanding federal debt, this paper traces its growth through the 1970s, along with the shifts in the politics of deficits. There are thought-provoking parallels to the pandemic-era deficits and the subsequent inflation.

Determinants of Financial Performance of Sharia Commercial Banks With Capital Adequacy Ratio and Sharia Supervisory Board as Moderator Variables

This study aims to determine and examine the effect of Capital Adequency Ratio, Non-performing Financing (NPF), Islamic Corporate Social Resposibility (ICSR), Financing to Deficit Ratio on Financial Performance and Sharia Supervisory Board as Moderator variables. This study used a type of quantitative descriptive research. The population in this study is 13 sharia Commercial Banks in Indonesia and the sampling technique used is purposive sampling, there are 10 Sharia Commercial Banks that have criteria as research samples. In this study, the data analysis methods used are Descriptive Statistical Analysis, Multiple Linear Regression, Classical Assumption Test, Hypothesis Test and Model Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) Test. The results showed that Akad Mudharabah and Musyarakah Financing did not have a significant effect on financial performance, Non-performing Financing (NPF) did not affect financial performance, Islamic Corporate Social Resposibility (ICSR) had a positive and significant effect on financial performance, Financing to Deficit Ratio does not have a significant effect on Financial Performance. The results showed that the CAR moderator variable could only moderate the ICSR against ROA. Furthermore, for variables DPS moderators can only moderate Akad Mudharabah and Musyarakah Financing against ROA and moderate ICSR against ROA.

Testing the triple deficits in the emerging economies of Europe

In the literature, increases in the ratio of current deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) are considered a crisis indicator, and budget and savings deficits are deemed to be significant causes of the current deficit. This situation, called the triple deficit hypothesis in the literature, is analyzed with the panel dynamic ordinary least square (panel DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) using 2000-2019 data for Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Romania, and Slovenia, which are generally referred to as the emerging economies of Europe. The results showed a long-term relationship between the variables. Accordingly, budget and private savings deficits increase the current deficit in the long term. The causality analysis found a reciprocal causal relationship between the variables, such that while budget and private savings deficits cause an increase in the current deficit, increases in the current deficit also increase the budget and private savings deficits. Thus, the triple deficit hypothesis is valid in these countries.

Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost

Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the “six pack” rules applied. We find debt ratio outturns exceeding projected values with forecast errors increasing over a four-year horizon. Larger errors arise where the initial debt ratio exceeds the Maastricht Treaty threshold of 60 per cent. In modelling the forecast errors of the debt ratio, we find that most of the variation is explained by forecast errors in the output growth rate and in the structural budget balance, as well as previous errors in projecting the debt ratio. During the sample period, member states who had not met their medium-term objective of a balanced structural budget were expected to adhere to a net expenditure rule. For countries subject to this requirement, we find undue optimism arising in forecasting the deficit ratio, a determinant of the debt ratio. The implications of these findings for EU policymakers and, in particular, forecasters are considered.

Business politicians and fiscal consolidation

AbstractWhat explains the variation in countries’ propensity to engage in austerity policy? Economic and political country-level factors are the paramount explanations in the literature. Nevertheless, variation in fiscal preferences at the executive level remains underexplored, except for ideology. Moreover, budget decisions are endogenous to the state of the economy, thus casting doubt on standard measures based on the debt and/or deficit ratio. This article contributes to the literature in two ways. First, I turn to the individual level of analysis and suggest that leaders with business experience are more likely to pursue a balanced budget and tend to implement fiscal consolidation policies based on spending cuts. Second, I ease concerns about individuals’ self-selection into office by relying on fiscal adjustments that are weakly orthogonal to the economic cycle. The statistical analysis of a panel of 17 OECD countries between 1978 and 2014 confirms the theoretical expectations. The results are robust to a variety of specification and statistical methodologies and hold for a subset of as-if random leadership transitions following close elections. A case study of Brian Mulroney's governments in Canada (1984–93) further illustrates the argument.

Balancing economic benefits and environmental repercussions based on smart irrigation by regulating root zone water and salinity dynamics

As a critical index for irrigation scheduling, plant water deficit index (PWDI) is defined as the ratio of water deficit to water demand to reflect the extent of abiotic stresses such as water and salinity. Recently, smart irrigation scheduling, according to PWDI thresholds to maintain desirable or acceptable stress levels, has been suggested to maximize yields while minimizing negative environmental effects under non-saline conditions. To investigate and quantify the potential for PWDI-driven irrigation on agricultural production under conditions of salinity, a two-year experiment with six specific thresholds was conducted in Shawan of Xinjiang for drip-irrigated cotton under film mulch. Results indicated that, with increasing PWDI threshold, irrigation depth per event increased, while irrigation frequency and total volume decreased. Consequently, the soil water and salt environment deteriorated, resulting in less nutrient uptake, slower growth, and lower yield and net profit. With particularly high PWDI thresholds leading to serious stress conditions, fiber quality was also negatively affected. Within a designed range of PWDI thresholds between 0.39 and 0.62, an elliptic function characterized the processes of water application, yield and net profit (R2 ≥ 0.95), and water productivity could be described by a parabolic function (R2 = 0.77). These quantitative results were used to provide guidelines for smart irrigation scheduling under local conditions considering water management measures and market prices of cotton. For a reference market price of 7.5 CNY kg-1, a PWDI threshold of 0.49 was found to optimize economic benefits while maximizing water productivity. When prices of cotton are prohibitively low, a lower threshold should be considered to obtain an acceptable net profit. Otherwise, a higher threshold would be preferable to use water more efficiently. Further verification and improvement are necessary to deal with more complex scenarios, such as, considering crop sensitivity to water and salinity stresses at different growth stages and optimizing irrigation depth per event.

The Influence of Debt-to-GDP on National Monetary Policy and Bond Market

Debt-to-GDP ratio can commendably indicate the ability of serving debt of a country and it has correlation with inflation ratio, actual ratio, deficit ratio and GDP ratio. Moreover, the debt-to-GDP ratio can be predicted with other ratios. This paper studies on these ratios and explores the impact of these ratios on the US bond and currency market and gives some credible suggestions. The paper uses Pearson analysis to study the correlation of the five ratios. Further, the degree of the correlation is presented. Linear and ridge regression are used to forecast the Debt-to-GDP ratio fluctuations and the prediction model and formula are also given. The result of the paper is significant for investors to grasp the correlation and seize better opportunity. For nation administrator, the paper gives a more accurate method to predict future ratios thus preparing ahead of schedule.

Meaningful measures of enamel hypoplasia: Prevalence and comparative intensity of developmental stress.

Developmental stress causing enamel thinning is an important topic in primate biology. Because taxa differ in growth rates and enamel thickness, the goal is to provide a new method allowing direct comparison of prevalence and salience of enamel defects among samples. Casts of ape teeth spanning the Late Pleistocene to Late Miocene from three site areas of increasing seasonality, equator (Sumatra) to 20° (Vietnam) and 25°N latitude (China), were examined for enamel defects among paleo-orangutans (n=571, 222, respectively) and Lufengpithecus lufengensis (n=198). Frequency of affected teeth and number of linear enamel hypoplasia were recorded. Defect dimensions were measured with a confocal microscope. Simple prevalence is compared to weighted prevalence (%), calculated by dividing "number of LEH from specific tooth groups" by "specific tooth sample size"; this quantity divided by "tooth-specific years of imbricational enamel formation." Defect dimensions are reduced to a dimensionless index termed "enamel deficit ratio" through dividing "daily enamel deficit" by "daily secretion rate." Weighted prevalence increases to the North, highlighting latitudinal similarities. In contrast, "enamel deficit ratio," designed to express comparative severity of developmental stress among samples, was least in the high latitude sample and differed little between paleo-orangutan samples. The actual numbers generated are not as important as efficacy of the proposed methods for other taxa. Developmental stress appears least severe in the high latitude (Lufengpithecus) sample but affects a greater proportion, compared to paleo-orangutans. Regardless of findings, the proposed solutions to improve comparability of disparate samples, yield reasonable results.

Aerobic and Anaerobic Energy Contributions during Short-Duration Supramaximal Exercises with Different Exercise Intensities

The study examined the relative energy contributions during 60-s supramaximal exercise with different exercise intensities. Nine male track and field sprinters performed a 60-s Wingate anaerobic test and a 60-s cycling tests at five intensities of 55%, 65%, 75%, 85%, and 95% mean power of the Wingate anaerobic test. The relative contributions of aerobic and anaerobic energy during the 60-s cycling tests were estimated by the ratio of O2 uptake and O2 deficit, the latter being calculated as the difference between O2 demand and O2 uptake. %VO2max of the 60-s cycling tests ranged from 100 ± 7 to 163 ± 11%VO2max. As exercise intensity increased, O2 uptake, O2 deficit, and anaerobic energy contributions during the 60-s cycling tests increased (p < 0.05). In contrast, in the first ~40 s during the 60-s cycling, the anaerobic energy contributions were not significant differences between each intensity. O2 uptake per 10 s increased with time course till 40 or 50 s in each intensity (p < 0.05). The different results of these at the first ～40 and 60 s during the 60-s cycling tests could be attributed to the insufficient increase in O2 uptake during the last 20 s of the test. These results suggest that, as exercise intensity increases, the anaerobic energy contribution becomes more prominent in the latter half of the 60-s exercise (i.e., 50 and 60 s) compared to the first 30 and 40 s.

Inflation Dynamics of Developing Countries in the Process of Globalization

Inflation has been one of the most extensive research areas in economics literature due to its impact on purchasing power, income distribution, and economic stability. Several studies in the literature state that developed countries largely resolved their inflation problem in the 1980s, not because of the economic policies applied but due to globalization beginning to dominate the world economy. However, developing countries continued to struggle with high inflation as they integrate into the world economy. The purpose of this study is to test the impact of globalization and domestic economic policies on inflation in developing countries. To this end, we use a panel data set covering the period from 1990 to 2019. According to the results of the Generalized Method of Moments estimation, there is no statistically significant relationship between inflation and economic globalization in developing countries. However, the inflation rate is negatively related to the budget deficit ratio and positively related to the increase in money supply growth rate.

Adaptive Reservoir Management by Reforming the Zone-based Hedging Rules against Multi-year Droughts

In this study, the zone-based hedging rule, which is the main operating policy adopted from multipurpose reservoirs in Korea is adjusted to reflect the multi-year droughts caused by climate change. Annual synthetic inflow series with different magnitudes of long memory were generated using the autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model. The generated inflow series were then disaggregated into 10-day series and utilized as input variables to derive the alternative hedging rules. The alternative hedging rules from this study were used in adaptive reservoir management by newly updated information. Finally, the performance of the suggested policy is measured in terms of frequency and magnitude under the historical inflow series. As a result, adaptive reservoir management demonstrated improvements in the following terms of the frequency of critical failures (water deficit ratio greater than 30%): 6.14% of the simulation period in the status quo (SQ) policy, and 2.99% in the adaptive management. However, the overall reliability of the reservoir during the simulation horizon was better when operated with the SQ policy (41.19%) than the results from adaptive management (26.42%). Because this result is in a good agreement with the original objective of the hedging rules, the adaptive policy suggested in this study holds promise and may be utilized in further reservoir management with an increase of potential drought risk from climate change.

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Recirculation Structures in Isothermal Swirling Coaxial Jet

Abstract Three-dimensional (3D) unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) simulations are conducted in a coaxial swirling jet. Two distinct types of recirculation zones (RZ) relevant to coaxial swirling jets are considered based on the modified Rossby number Rom, which is known to represent the ratio of axial velocity deficit between two coaxial streams to the characteristic tangential velocity at the nozzle exit. The two flow states studied are Rom&amp;gt;1 and Rom≤1. The former is characterized by regions of high strain (especially in the shear layer between central and coaxial jet). It is found in this study that renormalization group (RNG) k−ɛ model is the suitable model for 3D URANS simulation of Rom&amp;gt;1 flow state. This is attributed to the model's ability to simulate flow regions that are heavily strained. The simulated results are compared with two-dimensional laser Doppler velocimetry measurements conducted as part of this study. For the flow states Rom≤1, which are characterized by the dominance of radial pressure gradient arising due to rotational (swirling) effect over the pressure gradient due to axial velocity deficit, the Reynolds stress model (RSM) is found best to simulate the flow topologies and mean and turbulent quantities. The time-averaged results obtained from optimized turbulent models are employed to gain insights into the fluid mixing phenomenon in these RZs. The unsteady axial velocity fluctuations obtained from both experiments and URANS simulations are analyzed in the frequency domain to gain insights into dominant axial oscillations prevalent in RZs.

The impact of strengthening government auditing supervision on fiscal sustainability: Evidence from China's auditing vertical management reform

Government audit supervision is an important part of the national governance system, which has an important impact on government behavior. Taking the 2015 audit vertical management pilot reform implemented in China as a quasi-natural experiment, we adopt the differences-in-differences (DID) method to empirically examine the impact of the strengthening of externality and independence of government audit supervision on fiscal sustainability. The results show that the audit vertical management reform policy significantly reduces the fiscal deficit ratio and leads to the improvement of fiscal sustainability in reform pilot areas. This study not only enriches the research on the relationship between government oversight and fiscal sustainability, but also provides new evidence for the governance of decentralized developing countries.

Improvements in Computational Efficiency for Resonance Calculation Using Energy Spectrum Expansion Method

Improvements in computational efficiency for the Resonance calculation using energy Spectrum Expansion (RSE) method are proposed in order to increase the applicability of the method for core nuclear analyses. First, efficient treatment of the neutron source for the RSE method has been newly developed. This is a balanced approach from the viewpoints of computation time and memory size, in comparison with the other approaches mentioned in a previous study [R. KONDO et al., “A New Resonance Calculation Method Using Energy Expansion Based on a Reduced Order Model,” Nucl. Sci. Eng., 195, 694 (2021)]. Second, low-rank approximation has been applied to the RSE method considering the deficit ratio of the singular value for the orthogonal basis. Computation time was reduced by ~68% while maintaining sufficient accuracy of effective cross sections. Third, the impacts of the discretization parameters in the method of characteristics on the RSE method have been investigated, and coarser conditions of the parameters were found to be appropriate from the viewpoints of computation time and accuracy of effective cross sections. Finally, RSE calculations with these improvements have been performed for the fuel assembly geometry of a light water reactor. The computation time was reduced by ~70%, and the data size of the scattering cross-section moments was approximately 3900 times smaller in comparison with the RSE calculation without the improvements.

TRENDS IN THE FORMATION AND EXECUTION OF LOCAL BUDGETS UNDER MARTIAL LAW

Purpose. The aim of the article is to study the structure and volumes of the revenue and expenditure parts of local budgets of Ukraine in the pre-war period and during martial law, with the determination of indicators of financial security of local budgets and the substantiation of measures to strengthen them in the future. Methodology of research. In the process of research, methods of general scientific and empirical techniques based on a systemic approach were used. Such methods as: statistical method of data processing, grouping method - to analyse the dynamics of tax and non-tax revenues of local budgets were also used; system analysis, generalization - to assess the financial capacity of local authorities to fulfil the powers entrusted to them; expert method - for interpreting indicators of financial stability. Findings. It is installed the following: - a positive trend in the dynamics of the coefficient of concentration of own and fixed incomes, which means an increase in the level of independence of local self-government bodies; - a decrease in the ratio of the share of transfers in all revenues of local budgets, which indicates an increase in the independence of local self-government across regions; - normative value of the coefficient of budget coverage, which shows that the local self-government is able to finance its powers at the expense of its own and fixed revenues; - the negative trend of the deficit ratio of the local budget. It is argued that in the conditions of martial law, the current values of such indicators cannot be understood as a positive phenomenon. After all, today they are caused by the following negative factors: the "freezing" of special fund expenditures, the curtailment of infrastructure projects, arrears on a number of payments due to the withdrawal of "protected" budget articles during martial law, non-spending of local budgets in territorial communities located in the territories of hostilities. Focused attention on the possible reserve of local budgets, which can be the volume of reverse subsidies, provided they are directed to energy efficiency measures, including for the restoration of energy infrastructure facilities that were damaged as a result of mass shelling. This will contribute not only to overcoming the current challenges of wartime, but also to the post-war reconstruction of the regions that suffered from the aggression of russia. Originality. Based on the calculated indicators of the financial sustainability of local budgets, steps have been determined that enable local self-government bodies to increase the level of independence of local budgets, improve the quality of provided public services, and accelerate the social and economic development of regions during the war period. Practical value. The results of the study can be used in the process of forming and implementing the budget policy of the state in terms of redistributing financial resources and directing them to energy efficiency measures within territorial communities. Key words: local budgets, revenues of local budgets, expenditures of local budgets, consolidated budget, financial stability of local budgets.

The system of indicators of the financial stability of the local budget as a component of the assessment of the competitive immunity of the region

The article examines the essence of competitive immunity and gives the main stages of evaluating the competitive immunity of the region. There are three blocks for assessing the competitive immunity of the region: information and digital approach; information and digital technologies; value and reputation management. In accordance with the selected blocks, the objects of management influence necessary for assessing the competitive immunity of the region and bringing it to sustainable functioning are defined, namely: production sustainability, financial sustainability, socio-economic sustainability, informational and psychological sustainability, market sustainability, sustainable innovative development, growth of business value, balanced innovative infrastructure and reputation of the region. For one of the important objects of managerial influence, namely, financial stability, a system of indicators of a comprehensive analysis of the financial stability of the local budget as a component of competitive immunity is proposed, which should be considered in three groups: analysis of the balance of the local budget, analysis of financial stability and analysis of budget efficiency. The proposed ratio complex consists of twelve indicators, namely: coefficient of budget coverage, coefficient of budget sustainability, coefficient of general tax stability, coefficient of cost coverage by interbudgetary transfers, coefficient of budget dependence, coefficient of tax independence, coefficient of stability of the income base, the share of equalization grants in the total amount of transfers, local budget deficit ratio, coefficient of budgetary efficiency, coefficient of budgetary support, indicator of stability of the revenue part of the budget. The essence and normative values of the proposed indicators were considered. Within the framework of the proposed approach, the components of the integral indicator of the financial stability of the local budget are considered. The essence and algorithm of the work of Kohonen's neural networks with the aim of its further use for the segmentation of regions based on indicators of financial stability of regions are given.

AN ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING NON-PERFORMING ASSETS IN INDIAN BANKING SECTOR

Deterioration of asset quality destabilizes the financial system by adversely affecting the efficiency, profitability, solvency and liquidity of the banking sector. Both macroeconomic and bank specific factors should be analysed properly to know their strength and direction of impact on the bad assets to have effective NPA resolution mechanism. Unemployment Rate Inflation, Economic Growth, Export rate, Exchange rate, Fiscal Deficit ratio are the macroeconomic indicators and Return on Assets, Credit Deposit ratio, Net Interest Margin are the bank specific factor that are taken from 2003-04 to 2019-20 to explain the variability in Non-performing assets of Public sector and Private sector banks. Fixed effect estimation with robust clustered standard error is used for the panel data regression. Paper found that except unemployment rate all other variables have significant impact on bad assets. Bank specific factor have strong negative impact on the dependent variables. Only exchange rate affects the non-performing loans positively but other macroeconomic variables are negatively associated. KEYWORDS: Non-Performing Assets, Macroeconomic indicators, bank specific factors, Fixed effect

Kapitał społeczny ukraińskiego społeczeństwa po Rewolucji Godności

This article is devoted to the issue of the social capital of Ukrainian society a few years after the Revolution of Dignity. Its basic goal is to try to answer the question of whether the society, which at the turn of 2013 and 2014 coordinated its activities in order to achieve the common goal: the removal of the former government, set the pro-Western course. Indeed, a civil society was characterized by permanent resources of social capital. In order to get the answer to this question, the article analyses a number of indicators that are customarily related to social capital, such as: the level of trust in individual state and social institutions, the level of involvement in volunteering and the activity of associations, the level of corruption in the local society. However, aspects should be considered in terms of the deficit ratio of this type of capital. Recalling both historical data – from before the Revolution of Dignity – and current data (mostly from 2018 and 2019), allowed for comparisons on how Ukrainian society and its social capital have changed. The aim of this publication is to aggregate data on Ukrainian civil society, which in turn can be a starting point for wider (international) analysis and making predictions for the coming years. This analysis may turn out to be valuable for the Ukrainian power or those who aspire to it – after all, understanding and good communication with citizens is the basis of modern democratic states.

The European Union fiscal policy framework and fiscal sustainability: challenges for the post-crisis environment

The fiscal policy framework in the European Union was originally agreed upon in the Maastricht Treaty 30 years ago. In the following years it has been supplemented (Stability and Growth Pact) and modified, influenced by the experience of its application practice and external shocks, such as the financial crisis. However, the essence of this framework remained the same - member states are obliged to conduct a disciplined fiscal policy, which, in a nutshell, is assessed by comparing the ratio of budget deficit and public debt to GDP in a given country to the reference values. Even before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the need to change the mechanisms for disciplining fiscal policy was widely recognized. High and persistent levels of public debt, pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, shortage of public investment and the complexity of fiscal rules and their weak enforceability are indicated as unfavorable features of public finance. In 2019 the COVID-19 pandemic came as the biggest shock to the world community since World War II. In the context of the provisions on fiscal discipline, in May 2020 the Commission and the Council activated the general escape clause of Stability and Growth Pact, for the first time ever. This has allowed member states to take the necessary fiscal measures to deal with the crisis. On 19 October 2021, the European Commission adopted a Communication relaunching the public consultation, put on hold in March 2020, on the EU?s economic governance framework. The new governance framework should be tailored to the challenges the EU is facing, including the challenge of achieving a fiscal stance that is appropriate for the euro area as a whole. There is a fairly widespread belief in the need to move away from rigid reference values, which should be replaced by solutions that ensure the sustainability of public debt in the differing circumstances of member states. The proposed options for the revision of the EU fiscal framework, although justified in theory, have a fundamental flaw - they strengthen the position of supranational institutions and, moreover, open the door to discretion and potentially unequal treatment of member states. These proposals can be seen in a broader context - the federalization of the EU, which would limit the sovereignty of nation states.