Credit Rating Research Articles

The Impact of The Sovereign Credit Rating on The Possibility of Financing External Loans to The Iraqi Economy

External loans are a source of credit revenue. The process of obtaining it requires determining the degree of credit risk by predicting the financial solvency of the economy to judge its financial ability to pay the principal and interest dues of the loan at the specified maturity date. Considering that ability is a determinant of the creditworthiness of his economy, the extent to which financing can continue with this external credit source and its cost. The government of Iraq faced the difficulty of financing external loans from the international capital markets with its high return due to the lack of a sovereign credit rating that measures the risk of default through a process to determine the degree of that risk for investors of external lending funds. Therefore, the research came to show the effect of determining the sovereign credit rating on the extent to which the Government of Iraq can finance foreign loans, whether from capital markets or foreign governments and the impact of this classification on the credit facilities granted. The research concluded that the economy of Iraq got a sovereign credit rating within the degree of creditworthiness according to the classification of speculation to reflect the possibility of default in payment due to the dependence of the financial solvency of its economy on oil revenues, as the credit risks rise due to the inability to pay in the event of a decline in prices in the foreign market. However, relative stability within the short term enabled the Iraqi government to obtain foreign loans, with the requirement that Iraq provide guarantees by foreign governments and institutions in exchange for this source of credit.

Keputusan Pemberian Kredit Kepada UMKM Dalam Peer-To-Peer Lending: Faktor-Faktor Apa Saja Yang Dipertimbangkan Investor?

This study aims to examine and demonstrate six factors influencing the decision to grant credit loans to MSMEs on the conventional Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms Investree and Koinworks. These six factors are loan amount, loan term, credit rating, loan purpose, business duration, and financial statement information. A quantitative approach and secondary data from the publications of the Investree and Koinworks applications or websites were utilized in this research. A sample of 225 MSMEs was selected from a population of 267 using purposive sampling. Logistic regression analysis revealed that loan amount, credit rating, and loan purpose affect MSMEs on the Investree and Koinworks P2P lending platforms, while loan term, business duration, and financial statement information do not. These findings suggest that both P2P lending platforms consider various factors when evaluating MSME borrowers. The differences between Investree and Koinworks indicate distinct characteristics and appeals to MSMEs on each platform, which are also discussed in this study. The results of this research can assist MSMEs in preparing loan proposals to enhance credibility with lenders, provide better insights to lenders in decision-making, and serve as a reference for other P2P lending platforms in evaluating factors necessary for credit loan decision-making processes.

Exploring Prospects for Innovation in India's Financial System via Green Financing

Green financing (GF) allows countries to foster economic growth while promoting environmentally sustainable practices through innovative advancements in the financial sector. This concept warrants examination in countries like India. The paper evaluates the potential of GF in India. Findings reveal a predominant focus on renewable energy within India's green financing landscape, followed by the construction and transportation sectors. However, the growth of green bonds, a key financial instrument, is hindered by their low credit rating. To foster the development of GF, a collaborative effort among government bodies, financial institutions, policymakers, private sector entities, and non-governmental organizations is imperative for market expansion and risk mitigation.

Impact of credit rating downgrades and tightness of accounting standards on earnings management in listed SMES

Due to its nature, funding remains the main problem for listed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) globally. To overcome such a problem, there is a trend of using credit rating as the benchmark to appraise funding opportunities and applications in listed SMEs. As credit rating levels vary across time, subject to the performance of the listed SMEs, changes in the credit rating levels might trigger attention from listed SMEs, and actions might then be taken by the management to ensure that the credit rating is at the desired level. Since the literature in this strand of study is limited, this study aimed to examine the effect of credit rating downgrade and tightness of accounting standards on earnings management in listed SMEs. Employing a 2x3 between-subjects experiment manipulating credit rating downgrades (category or notch) and tightness of accounting standards (less tight, moderately tight, tight), it is evidenced that credit rating downgrades, especially notch downgrades, lead to more earnings management behaviors in the presence of a tight and less tight set of accounting standards. Different classifications of credit rating downgrades – notches and categories – will have different implications for earnings management based on the extent to which they are subject to external monitoring. As a practical matter, it is recommended that regulators exercise equal monitoring regardless of whether credit rating downgrades occur by category or notch.

Consensus credit ratings: a view from banks

While the production of credit ratings has long been limited mainly to rating agencies (CRAs), recent years have seen the growing popularity of consensus credit ratings crowdsourced from banks (i.e., bank ratings). We provide the first comprehensive examination of the properties and informativeness of bank ratings relative to CRA ratings. We find that bank ratings often deviate from CRA ratings, with over 60% of firm-months having different bank and CRA ratings. These deviations contain useful information. Bank ratings improve out-of-sample prediction of defaults and CRA rating revisions and explain the cross-section of credit spreads. However, bank ratings do not improve out-of-sample prediction of credit excess returns, indicating that current prices incorporate bank rating information. Overall our findings suggest that bank ratings are a useful supplement to traditional credit ratings.

Sovereign Credit Risk in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Egypt

The purpose of this paper is to assess and predict sovereign credit risk for Egypt, Morroco and Saudi Arabia using credit default swap (CDS) spreads obtained from the DataStream database for the period from 2009 to 2022. Our approach consists of generating the implied default probability and the corresponding credit rating in order to estimate the term structure of the implied default probability using the Nelson–Siegel model. In order to validate the prediction from the probability term structure, we calculate the transition matrices based on the implied rating using the homogeneous Markov model. The main results show that, overall, the probabilities of defaulting in the long term are higher than those in the short term, which implies that the future outlook is more pessimistic given the events that occurred during the study period. Egypt seems to be the country with the most fragile economy, especially after 2009, likely because of the political events that marked the country at that time. The economies of Morocco and Saudi Arabia are more resilient in terms of both default probability and credit rating. These findings can help policymakers develop targeted strategies to mitigate economic risks and enhance stability, and they provide investors with valuable insights for managing long-term investment risks in these countries.

Does a country’s sovereign credit rating drive capital inflows into emerging European markets? Evidence from Balkan region

This study investigates the impact of sovereign credit ratings on capital inflows and their composition for emerging European economies in the Balkan region. This study sheds light on this nexus by selecting Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, and Slovenia between 2006-2018 using panel data analysis. The estimation results underscore that a sovereign credit rating is a significant driver of capital inflows, and a decline in sovereign credit risk leads to increased foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows. Furthermore, the estimation results demonstrate the importance of the country’s specific pull factors and reveal that a country characterized by a larger market size, better institutional quality, a stable macroeconomic environment, and a more developed financial market could attract more capital inflows. Moreover, the results highlight that global risk and liquidity push factors have a significant effect on driving cross-border capital inflows into the Balkan economies. The findings suggest that policymakers should reduce sovereign credit risks and increase the country’s absorptive capacity and competitiveness in order to attract more capital inflows to the investigated Balkan countries.

Deposit Money Bank Credit and Non-Oil Export in Nigeria

The non-oil sectors play a crucial role in driving in­dustrial transformation and generating foreign exchange for a nation. Therefore, the performance of this sector is influenced by the implementation of policies and programs, as well as the availability of credit facilities from deposit money banks (DMBs). This study examines the relationship between DMBs' credit and non-oil exports in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The data is analysed using the bounds test co-integration procedure of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results indicate that there is a significant (Prob. < 0.05) positive relationship be­tween DMBs' credit and exchange rates. Furthermore, DMBs' lending rate and inflation rate demonstrate a significant nega­tive relationship, while gross fixed capital formation shows an inverse relationship with non-oil exports in Nigeria. The cau­sality test reveals no causality between bank credit to non-oil sectors, exchange rate, and the volume of non-oil exports in Ni­geria. However, there is a unidirectional causality between gross fixed capital formation, the lending rate of banks, the in­flation rate, and non-oil exports in Nigeria. Based on these find­ings, it is recommended that both the government and the monetary authorities make concerted efforts to stabilise the macroeconomic variables and promote growth-oriented programs meant to boost the aim of enhancing the production of locally produced goods in the non-oil sectors of Nigeria. Additionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria should consider re­ducing the bank rate, as this would directly impact other rates within the country.

Creditors’ Role in Shaping Asymmetric Cost Behavior: Evidence from Debt Covenant Violation

ABSTRACT This study uses covenant violations as a quasi-natural experimental setting to examine creditors’ roles in shaping corporate cost behavior. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that cost stickiness experiences a sharp decline following debt covenant violations when control rights are transferred to creditors. The cost stickiness effect is more substantial for borrowers with lower credit ratings and when creditors possess greater bargaining power. The effect is also more pronounced during industry downturns when borrowers have fewer alternative sources of finance. Results are consistent when I use alternative measures of cost stickiness and alternative research designs. Overall, my evidence indicates that creditors play a monitoring role in firms’ cost behaviors and identifies a specific channel (loan covenants) through which the misalignment of incentives can impact cost asymmetry. JEL Classifications: D24; G32; M41.

기업의 지배구조와 신용등급 간의 비선형성에 대한 연구

This study examined whether there is a nonlinear characteristic between the independence of the audit committee and the credit rating that can function as a monitoring body. In addition, it was examined whether the results of this analysis have significant differences depending on the audit corporation. The analysis results show that, first, the independence of the audit committee showed a significant nonlinear relationship with the credit rating and credit rating of corporate bonds. This indicates that the independence of the audit committee increases to a certain level or higher, so that the more sufficient control and monitoring effects exist, the higher the credit rating can be. Second, the nonlinear relationship between the independence of the audit committee (the ratio of appointments) and the credit rating was significant in Big4 audit firms than in Non-Big4 audit firms.

Effects of Türkiye’s Credit Rantings and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on BIST ALL

In the study, the relationship between Turkey's Credit Default Swaps (CDS) premiums and credit ratings of Standard and Poor's (S&P), Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) and Fitch Ratings (CRA) and the BIST ALL index listed in Borsa Istanbul and The aim is to observe their effects on each other. The universe of the study; consists of 3956 daily Turkey CDS credit risk premiums and BIST ALL data and 93 credit ratings given by CRAs in the period 2009:1–2024:4. The effect of the increase or decrease in CDS and credit scores on the closing values of the BIST ALL index was analysed with Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests. Findings obtained in the study; Increasing the credit rating and outlook of CRAs causes an increase in BIST ALL closing values in the short term. The change in Türkiye CDS premiums triggers changes in BIST ALL closing values in the short and long term. Finally, the study concluded that the change in CDS premiums has a negative effect on BIST ALL, while the increase in credit score and outlook has a positive effect on BIST ALL.

국제회계기준(IFRS) 도입에 따른 부동산 가격이 국가 재정건전성에 미치는 영향

Due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, inevitable welfare spending has increased sharply, and as the national debt has increased sharply, international credit rating agencies have considered downgrading Korea's credit rating. However, the Korean government has provided support for supplementary budgets and welfare policies, and as a result, national debt is increasing and national Financial soundness is deteriorating. Accordingly, based on previous studies, this study aims to present real estate-related policy measures that can fundamentally improve the national fiscal soundness so that the national credit rating is not degraded by studying how asset revaluation gains and comprehensive real estate taxes caused by real estate price increases affect national fiscal soundness indicators based on International Accounting Standards (IFRS). As a result of the study's analysis, the introduction of international accounting standards resulted in conditional results that 'an increase in the declared value of real estate can be positive for the national fiscal soundness', and in this study, four policy improvement measures related to real estate were proposed. Through these policy implications and fiscal policies such as institutional improvement measures, the government is expected to improve the national fiscal soundness while maintaining the national credit rating.

가계부채 관리를 위한 주택담보대출 부분조기상환의 특성에 관한 연구

This study empirically analyzes the characteristics and determinants of partial prepayment. Using data from the KHF, this study divides the prepayment of fixed-rate mortgage loans into partial and full payments. The analysis results are summarized as follows. First, the partial payment scale indicated 25.4% of the full payment, as determined by the specific amount. Second, partial prepayment did not affect maturity. Third, in the case of partial prepayment, the distinction lies in whether there was an application, rather than the level of the application rate. Fourth, partial prepayment exhibited lower susceptibility to market fluctuations. Fifth, making a partial prepayment affected the credit rating, borrower’s age, loan-to-value ratio (LTV), and a dummy variable representing the month. Moreover, estimating partial prepayment is easy owing to the considerable impact of the variables influencing origination and the small influence of market variables. The analysis reveals that partial prepayment has a relatively small LTV and a small DTI, increases with high credit ratings, and has minimal impact on changes in the housing market or the elapsed period. To effectively control household debt, the characteristics of partial prepayment can be utilized, such as charging early repayment fees, determining the repayment mechanism following partial prepayment, and providing policy support. This study focused on the partial prepayment of mortgage loans, an area that had not been previously researched. The findings of the full prepayment analysis were consistent with those of earlier studies; however, the analysis revealed contrasting results for partial prepayment.

Banks' Portfolio Similarity During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Purpose: This study tries to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the similarity of banks' loan portfolios. Design/methodology/approach: Using the entire firm-level bank loan data from 2009 to 2020 in the Korean market, this study analyzes the cosine similarity in terms of credit rating, industry, and region between banks. Findings: The study discovered that interbank portfolio similarity has escalated over time, with the similarity notably intensifying during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, it was found that larger banks exhibit greater similarities, a trend that has become increasingly pronounced during the pandemic period. Research limitations/implications: This study provides empirical evidence of the synchronization in lending behaviors among major South Korean banks during the COVID-19 pandemic. It posits that while the synchronicity of banks' lending patterns during typical financial crises is generally accepted, further research in financial markets of other countries is necessary to substantiate this claim universally. Originality/value: Therefore, the role of financial authorities to alleviate deepening interbank portfolio synchronization triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting escalation of financial market instability is emphasized.

TRANSPARENCY IN CORPORATE GOVERNANCE: ITS ROLE IN MITIGATING FINANCIAL RISKS AND IMPROVING PERFORMANCE METRICS

In-depth analysis of the vital role that openness plays in corporate governance is provided in this paper, with particular attention to how it improves organizational performance measures and reduces financial risk. Transparent corporate governance processes are more important than ever in a time of growing complexity in global business operations and elevated stakeholder expectations. Using a mixed-methods approach, this study combines qualitative insights from in-depth interviews with business executives, regulators, and governance experts with quantitative analysis of financial data from 500 publicly traded companies across several industries. The study's five-year duration, from 2019 to 2023, enables a thorough analysis of trends and causal connections. Based on reduced stock price volatility, fewer substantial financial restatements, and improved credit ratings, our results show a clear positive association between more corporate transparency and better financial risk management. Additionally, the study shows that businesses with more open governance processes routinely beat their less open competitors on a number of important performance criteria, such as customer happiness, employee productivity, and return on equity (ROE). The study also reveals complex connections between particular transparency metrics and performance results, emphasizing the necessity of customized strategies for improving openness depending on organizational and industry-specific factors. These revelations aid in the creation of an all-encompassing framework for putting corporate transparency into practice and gauging its effectiveness, offering practitioners, legislators, and scholars studying corporate governance useful direction.

A STUDY ON COMPARING BORROWER EASE WITH STATE BANK OF INDIA (SBI) AND LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION (LIC) HOUSING FINANCE IN KRISHNAGIRI DISTRICT

Everyone needs his own servant. The latter is an effective and valuable incentive for the financial turnaround of residency activities. But, buying a home in the current situation is a difficult task, as it has a significant use. A running Elegance family cannot afford the cost of this use. To take a decision on this movement, the government offers to extend housing finance to every individual at a low loan rate. The housing finance sector allows deduction in bonds. Home financing mode of housing on a credit basis in which we pay fixed payments often with high loan charges. A credit position was granted primarily based on the qualifications of the individuals and the standards of the bank. Many banks and financial institutions have entered the housing finance venues that offer modest advances at low borrowing costs. The cost of financing is an essential element of advances. Banks and economic institutions provide types of financial prices for credit ratings, for example, fixed and drifting. Banks provide housing finance as well as loans for development, growth, transformation, development etc. The main reason for this study is to think and dissect between housing finance technology and customer pleasure of SBI the largest public sector bank in India and LIC being the largest personal convenience financial institution in India.

Социально-экономическая устойчивость муниципалитетов: методика и опыт исследования

Introduction. The issue of socio-economic sustainability of territories has been studied in depth in the scientific literature. This concerns both the concept of socio-economic sustainability itself and its application to the analysis of regional and municipal development. Various aspects of socio-economic sustainability are also addressed in a significant number of territorial ratings currently available on the information market and published by both government agencies and non-governmental structures – analytical centers, rating agencies (RA), and mass media. Most of these information and analytical products relate to the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. A striking example is the rating of regions for the implementation of the federal project “Formation of a Comfortable Urban Environment” from the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation. This series also includes the rating of the quality of life in the regions from the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), the rating of the socio-economic sustainability of regions from the Civil Society Development Fund, the rating of the socio-economic development of regions from RIA Novosti, the rating of the investment attractiveness of regions from RA Expert, and a number of others. A significantly smaller number of such products relate to the municipal level. And this is a big problem of practical and scientific nature, which, in the author's opinion, can be overcome by the developed assessment of the socio-economic sustainability of Russian municipalities.Materials and methods. The presented study used indicators of socio-economic and electoral statistics of municipalities relating to 2022-2023. The main source is Rosstat data. In addition, information contained on the official websites or in the official publications of regional and municipal authorities was used. The work used universal methods of scientific knowledge: analysis, synthesis, generalization.Results. The result of the study was regional ratings of the socio-economic sustainability of municipalities in five subjects of the Russian Federation within the Ural Federal District: Sverdlovsk, Tyumen and Chelyabinsk regions, Khanty-Mansiysk – Yugra and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs.

Not a one-trick pony: Price impact of rating agency information

Prior literature on the informational role of credit rating agencies has largely focused on announcements by the rating agencies regarding rating actions. We take a tangent in this paper and examine the relevance of rating agencies’ other information disclosures beyond rating actions, such as credit opinions and sector comments. Credit opinions provide in-depth analyses of a firm’s financial performance and gives visibility into how a credit rating is derived. Analyzing the stock return decomposition among Moody’s information, earnings announcements, SEC filings, and earnings forecasts, we find that the additional disclosures by rating agencies, especially the credit opinions, are a source of useful and timely additional information to the market. Overall, our results indicate that stock market investors can do well to not only focus on credit rating actions, but also on credit opinions and other rating agency disclosures.

Credit rationing and sustainable activities: A firm-level investigation

This paper studies whether differences in credit rationing exist, based on firms’ activities in sustainable sectors, recently identified by the European Commission in the EU Taxonomy Regulation. To this aim, we use the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, including a sample of more than 28,900 firms from 66 developing and emerging countries, over the waves 2006–2020. We find that firms operating in sustainable sectors are around 1.6% less likely to be financially constrained, controlling for other firm-level characteristics. The magnitude of the effect is larger for small and young firms. Moreover, our results show that firms operating in sustainable sectors are more likely to receive external financing if they operate in countries where environmental issues are more relevant and where financial systems and the business environment are less developed.

Using a genetic backpropagation neural network model for credit risk assessment in the micro, small and medium-sized enterprises

In China, with the "Double Carbon" goal within reach, Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) emerge as pivotal contributors to economic advancement. However, they are now confronted with the imperative of transitioning towards green and low-carbon practices. To facilitate the attainment of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality, a refined approach is imperative. This entails precise capital allocation, enhanced financial services, streamlined management, and robust risk mitigation strategies. Consequently, conducting thorough credit risk assessments for MSMEs becomes a crucial endeavor. However, obtaining substantial loans for them proves challenging due to their elusive credit ratings and potential defaults. To address this issue, this study leverages machine learning and intelligent optimization algorithms to construct a classification model for default and credit ratings of MSMEs, utilizing their daily invoice data. Specifically, twelve indicators pertaining to default and credit ratings are extracted. Subsequently, Principal Component Analysis is employed to reduce dimensionality and synthesize all pertinent information. Following this, the Genetic Algorithm-based Back Propagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN) is utilized to delineate the relationship between indicators and default, as well as credit rating, respectively. The results indicate a prediction accuracy of 0.92 for default risk and 0.86 for credit rating. This underscores the efficacy of GA-BPNN in effectively classifying the underlying default risk and credit ratings of MSMEs, offering a promising approach for decision-making.