You have accessJournal of UrologyProstate Cancer: Detection and Screening1 Apr 2011986 HOW SOON CAN WE IDENTIFY MEN AT HIGH RISK FOR PROSTATE CANCER DEATH? AN EARLY SURVEILLANCE STRATEGY FOR PROSTATE CANCER Andrew Vickers, Caroline Savage, Thomas Bjork, Axel Gerdtsson, Jonas Manjer, Peter Nilsson, Anders Dahlin, Anders Bjartell, Peter Scardino, David Ulmert, and Hans Lilja Andrew VickersAndrew Vickers New York, NY More articles by this author , Caroline SavageCaroline Savage New York, NY More articles by this author , Thomas BjorkThomas Bjork Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author , Axel GerdtssonAxel Gerdtsson Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author , Jonas ManjerJonas Manjer Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author , Peter NilssonPeter Nilsson Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author , Anders DahlinAnders Dahlin Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author , Anders BjartellAnders Bjartell Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author , Peter ScardinoPeter Scardino New York, NY More articles by this author , David UlmertDavid Ulmert New York, NY More articles by this author , and Hans LiljaHans Lilja New York, NY More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2011.02.1018AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES The Preventive Project (MPP) in Malmö, Sweden was a cardiovascular study enrolling a representative cohort (74% participation) of men aged 33–50 in 1974–1986. Until recently, rates of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing in Sweden have remained low; retrieval and analysis of archived blood plasma from MPP was previously used to demonstrate a strong association between PSA levels measured at age 44–50 and risk of advanced prostate cancer diagnosis up to 30 years subsequently. Our current objective was to determine the degree of risk concentration, that is, the proportion of cases found in men with the highest PSA levels. METHODS Death from prostate cancer was determined by case note review (74%) or from death certificate data (26%). A nested case-control design was used, with three controls matched to each death. Lorenz curve methodology was used to determine risk concentration. RESULTS The median follow up was 27 years. A total of 141 men died from prostate cancer. A single PSA at age 44–50 was strongly predictive of subsequent prostate cancer death at a median follow-up of 27 years (area-under-the-curve: 0.72). The figure shows the Lorenz curve for risk concentration: 44% of deaths occurred in men with the top 10% of PSA (≥ ∼1.5 ng / ml). As alternative strategy, we took the top quartile of men (PSA ≥ ∼1 ng / ml), measured free PSA and hK2, and took those at highest risk on the basis of a combined model of all markers. Doing so would lead to identification of an additional 2.4% of deaths in the top 10% of risk. We repeated all analyses using metastasis as the endpoint (215 events); the results were similar: for example, 42% of metastases occurred in top 10% of PSA with an additional 2.5% metastases were identified by free PSA and hK2. CONCLUSIONS Long-term risk of prostate cancer death can be predicted on the basis of a single blood test before the age of 50. Targeting a small proportion (10%) of men in an early intervention strategy–regular PSA screening with compliance monitoring, and possibly chemoprevention–could prevent almost half of all prostate cancer deaths. © 2011 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 185Issue 4SApril 2011Page: e398 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2011 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Andrew Vickers New York, NY More articles by this author Caroline Savage New York, NY More articles by this author Thomas Bjork Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author Axel Gerdtsson Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author Jonas Manjer Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author Peter Nilsson Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author Anders Dahlin Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author Anders Bjartell Malmo, Sweden More articles by this author Peter Scardino New York, NY More articles by this author David Ulmert New York, NY More articles by this author Hans Lilja New York, NY More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...
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