Economic Growth Rate Research Articles

The Effects of International Technology Spillover Channels on Innovation Performance: An Application on Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Abstract The increasing pressure of competition in a globalizing world forces the countries to strengthen their market shares in order to grow rapidly. This requires to have technological innovation, and scientific knowledge, as the primary sources. Hence, the main aim of this study is to investigate the effects of international technology spillover channels on the innovation performance of firms operating in the Turkish manufacturing industry. For the aim of the study, the System Generalized Moments Method (SGMM) was used for the estimation of the models. Micro data of the 311 firms covering the period of 2011–2015 were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). The results of the study show that domestic R&D stock and especially technology absorptive capacity have significant and strong positive effects on the new product sales of the firms. Also, the findings indicate that the international technology spillover channels which have the most important impact on the innovation performance is foreign direct investments (FDI), and this is followed by the export channel. Depending on the conditional values of technology absorptive capacity in the manufacturing industry, the marginal effects of international technology spillover channels on new product sales differ. As a matter of the fact, when the share of technology absorptive capacity increases, the marginal effects of FDI on new product sales decrease, while the marginal effects of export and technology transfer expenditures increase. As a result, the government should increase the sales of new products of firms by encouraging domestic R&D activities and FDI, thus laying the groundwork for the high and stable economic growth rates.

Trends and Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India: A Decadal Analysis (2010-2020)

This paper analyses trends and determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in India in 2010-2020, the decade with some of the fastest economic growth rates and the increased awareness of environmental issues. The research pays attention to India, the world's third-largest emitter of GHG, which will be analysed regarding emissions in four sectors: energy, industry, agriculture, and waste management. A time series analysis of data drawn from national and international agencies, such as the World Bank and India's Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Climate Change, was applied in this study. Statistical analysis and data visualisation were performed using the R software. The key findings show an increase of 42% in the total emissions of GHG over the last decade, with the energy sector dominating at 68% in 2020. Other significant contributors were industry (20%), agriculture (9%), and waste (3%). Growth in population, along with accompanying urbanisation and industrial expansion, is cited as the main factor responsible for emission rise. However, there are also indications of decoupling between growth in the economy and emissions intensity. The study analyzes the greenhouse gas emission trends for major emitters between 2010 and 2020, in India. The dynamic panel data model analyses indicate signs of decoupling of emissions from economic growth in developed economies and the role of renewable energy and carbon pricing. Research findings further indicate that stronger climate policy and investment in clean energy is the necessity to decrease global emissions.The paper identifies policy issues that require strong activity in enforcing efficiency measures, fastening the shift toward krenewable sources of energy, and effective sustainable planning and waste management practices in urbanisation processes. In that respect, examination of policies like the PAT scheme and promotion of electric vehicles has shown where more aggressive implementation may be seen as necessary to ensure India's climate commitments. This elaborate decadal review finds most of its utility within the framework of policy designing for sustainable development and climate change mitigation by policymakers and stakeholders in the Indian scenario.

Can artificial intelligence empower energy enterprises to cope with climate policy uncertainty?

This study investigates the effect of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on firm-level investment and through which artificial intelligence (AI) may act upon this relationship. Using panel data from listed energy enterprises in China from 2010 to 2019, we demonstrate that CPU significantly inhibits energy enterprises' investments, mainly by exacerbating their financing constraints. This effect is more pronounced in firms with strong environmental awareness, strong internal control, high environmental, social, and governance scores, or in the traditional energy industry. Furthermore, we find that AI adoption weakens the impact of CPU on firm-level investments, primarily through two potential mechanisms: mitigating the customer concentration risk and enhancing green patent commercialization. On average, a 1 % increase in the degree of AI adoption by energy firms can boost their investment expenditure by 0.0065 %. Furthermore, AI's role in mitigating the negative impact of CPU on energy firms' investments is more significant in non-resource-based cities, cities with high economic growth rates, and cities with advanced IT infrastructure. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of the forces driving sustainable energy transitions in the evolving climate policy landscape.

USA – Innovation Index: A State - Level Proposal

We propose an open-access innovation index for the U.S. states. This index was built by classifying into four core areas the twelve more important indicators, inputs, and outputs, that are widely accepted in the literature as the most relevant for measuring innovation. We consider the indicators aggregated in the areas of human capital and business environment as the inputs that create knowledge and influence the promotion of innovation, while those in areas of engagement and efficiency as the outputs that are all those outcomes and improvements related to the innovation process. As an example of potential uses of our index, we ran a basic econometric experiment using the economic growth rate as the dependent variable. Despite the results being qualitatively consistent with the literature, we suggest further research using our index and other methodologies. We included in the appendix the overall index score and ranking from 2000 to 2015.

EXPERIENCES OF ECONOMIC, INSTITUTIONAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

<p>The countries of the Western Balkans have behind them two and a half decades of too slow recovery. The paper tests the hypothesis that without stable development institutions and adequate economic reforms, high rates of economic growth that will lead to sustainable development are not possible. Low rates of growth and living standards result in population emigration and "brain drain". The Western Balkans is becoming an aging society due to the fact that a fifth of the inhabitants born in the Western Balkans live abroad today. We observed the transition of the countries of the Western Balkans through three periods: from 2000-2008 year, then the period after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2009-2019 year and the period from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic to today (2019-2024).</p>

An Assessment of Malaysia’s Fiscal Deficit and Current Account Balance Using a Nonlinear Approach

Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, the Malaysian government responded decisively, implementing substantial fiscal expansion measures to combat the pandemic's spread and safeguard the economy. In the second quarter of 2020, the current account surplus decreased to RM5.6 billion, or 1.7% of GDP, raising concerns of a twin-deficit. Keynesians relate fiscal deficits to the twin-deficit hypothesis. This study will use data from 2008Q1 to 2022Q4 to investigate the validity of the theory on Malaysia in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. For empirical analysis, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach will be used. Results show that fiscal deficits have neither short- or long-run effect on the current account, confirming the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH), which holds that fiscal deficits do not affect the current account balance. In addition, research findings confirm the significance of economic growth and exchange rates in augmenting the surplus of the current account. Therefore, it is crucial to prioritise the successful execution of the National Investment Master Plan 2030, the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, and the New Industrial Master Plan 2030 in order to effectively address the prevailing economic challenges. These efforts have the potential to boost economic revitalization and foster long-term growth.

Role of Globalization and Innovation Pattern in Growth of Bank Credit: Evidence From Emerging and Advanced Asia

ABSTRACTThis study examines the role of globalization and innovation pattern (i.e., innovation by the residents and non‐residents) in the growth of domestic bank credit across emerging and advanced Asian economies spanning from 1996 to 2022. The bank credit growth model includes economic growth and real interest rate as important control variables. This study employs Cross Sectional‐Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS‐ARDL) as an appropriate baseline method because of the cointegration, endogeneity, and cross‐sectional dependency present in the data. The long‐run results for emerging Asian economies indicate that globalization exhibits a negative impact on banking credit, contrasting with the positive influence observed in advanced Asian economies due to heightened economic growth and increased credit demand. Residential innovation consistently bolsters banking credit in both sets of economies, albeit with mixed effects stemming from non‐resident innovation. The long‐run results further indicate the positive (negative) impact of economic growth (real interest rate) on bank credit in emerging and advanced Asian economies. These findings are reliable due to the similar results obtained from using Driscoll‐Kraay Robust Standard Errors (DKSEs) as robust method. For policymakers in emerging economies, the imperative policy lies in striking a delicate balance between economic openness and bank credit, while counterparts in advanced economies are poised to bolster bank credit accessibility through foreign innovation while upholding stringent regulatory oversight.

The impact of the shadow economy on taxation in Cambodia

A multiple regression analysis was conducted to assess the influence of the shadow economy, inflation rate, and GDP growth rate on tax revenue. The regression model utilized level data, and the two-step Engle and Granger cointegration test confirmed the absence of spurious relationships between the dependent and independent variables. Various diagnostic tests associated with OLS methods were performed, including assessments for multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and serial autocorrelation. To ensure the robustness of the standard errors, the HAC standard errors and covariance were applied. The empirical findings of this research demonstrated that the growth of the shadow economy has a statistically significant negative impact on tax revenue in Cambodia. Furthermore, the results indicated a negative relationship between inflation and tax revenue, while a positive correlation was found between real GDP growth and tax revenue.

Investigating the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Using Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test: The Case of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan

This study examines the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Following their independence, both countries implemented significant structural reforms to transition to a market economy, recognizing the efficient use of energy resources as a strategic component for economic growth. Kazakhstan benefited from its abundant oil and natural gas reserves, resulting in an increased economic growth rate. In contrast, Azerbaijan fostered its economic development through a growth model centered on energy exports. The research analyzes the impact of oil and renewable energy consumption on economic growth through various models. The findings indicate a significant causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Kazakhstan, while this relationship is not statistically significant in Azerbaijan. Consequently, the study concludes that energy consumption is a crucial factor for economic growth in Kazakhstan. Furthermore, the research explores how structural differences between energy consumption and economic growth influence the time needed to reach equilibrium. Results show that Kazakhstan achieves equilibrium in a shorter timeframe compared to Azerbaijan. This study aims to enhance the understanding of growth dynamics, particularly in energy-rich countries, by highlighting the effects of energy consumption on economic growth and the implications of different energy policies on this relationship.

Implementasi Kenaikan Suku Bunga Kredit dan Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Sumatera Utara

The aim of this research is to see how increases in credit and investment interest rates impact economic growth in North Sumatra from 2013 to 2023. Indonesia faces the challenge of balancing economic growth, price stability and job creation as a developing country. Quantitative methods were used in this research, which used secondary data from the National Center for Statistics. This method is multiple linear regression analysis. Included in the variables studied are economic growth, investment, and credit interest rates. The research results show that credit interest rates have a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth, while investment has a negative and significant impact. According to multiple regression analysis, fluctuations in credit and investment interest rates can be responsible for 37.9% of economic growth. Additional unexamined factors influence the remaining sections. This research suggests that the government and stakeholders re-evaluate investment strategies to encourage sustainable economic growth in North Sumatra.

Apertura Comercial Y Crecimiento Económico: Una Aproximación Empírica

Economic growth has beneficial effects on the general well-being of a society. Identifying and analysing its determining factors becomes essential to improve economic policy decisions. Among these factors, the effects of trade openness are widely debated in the literature. Although there are many works that study the relationship between trade openness and economic growth, the results are heterogeneous and differ depending on the level of development of the economies, the openness variable considered, among other conditions. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the existence of a relationship between trade openness and economic growth in a large group of developed and developing countries, considering different openness measures, and thus outline recommendations for economic policies that promote growth. The central hypothesis is that trade openness has a different effect on the economic growth rate depending on the degree of development of the economies and the openness variable analysed. To meet the objective, parametric estimates were used for the period 1960-2019, and alternative measures of openness were constructed to the conventional indicator defined as the sum of exports and imports in relation to the gross domestic product (GDP). The results obtained in this work differ depending on the level of development of the countries analysed and the openness measures used.

Fiscal support and the impacts of tumbling oil prices from COVID-19 on MENA’s economy, energy consumption and environment

Purpose This study aims to investigate the impact of the oil crash during the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy, energy and the environment in MENA countries, with and without fiscal policy, in a global context. Design/methodology/approach This study applies a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model for 47 countries from 2006Q1 to 2021Q3. The sign restriction method is used to identify the oil shocks originating from the COVID-19 crisis. Findings Empirical evidence shows that without fiscal interventions, MENA countries experienced a decline in output growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions due to lower oil prices caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the oil price shock on inflation varied across the region. Economic growth and inflation rates in MENA countries turn positive when the member states implement expansionary fiscal measures to stimulate economic activities during the pandemic. Hence, fiscal policy played a crucial role in supporting the economy and preventing a severe recession during COVID-19 in the MENA region. However, expansionary fiscal measures increased energy consumption and air pollution. Practical implications The findings help policymakers better cope with the outbreak of deadly pandemics in the coming years. It improves our understanding of the role of fiscal policy in boosting economic efforts and reducing the adverse environmental impact of increased government spending. Originality/value This paper enhances the current body of literature by investigating how fiscal policies implemented by the MENA countries help mitigate the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, it enables us to analyze the impact of fiscal support on energy consumption and the environment during an oil shock influenced by global uncertainty, lockdowns, and supply chain disruptions.

Analisis Tren Ekonomi Digital terhadap Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of fintech, the amount of money in circulation, interest rates and economic growth on the analysis of digital economic trends on monetary policy in Indonesia. There are four variables in this study, namely fintech, the amount of money in circulation, interest rates and economic growth. The analysis method used is Vector Autoregression with the Impluse Response Function test or abbreviated as IRF and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition test commonly abbreviated as FEVD, stationarity test, cointegration test, lag structure stability test and optimal lag length test. There is a contribution from each variable to the variable itself and other variables, according to the results of the Vector Autoregression study with a lag basis of 2. In addition, the results of the Vector Autoregression analysis show that the past variable (t-1) contributes to the current variable both to the variable itself and to other variables. The results of the analysis show that there is a reciprocal relationship between the variables. By using response function analysis, we can see if there is a response from other variables to changes in one variable in the short, medium, or long term. In addition, we know that the stability of all variables is formed in the short, medium, and long term. According to the Variance Decomposition Analysis, factors such as Fintech and Money Supply contribute the most to the variable itself. However, other variables that have the greatest influence on the variable itself and are supported by other variables in the short, medium, and long term are economic growth and interest rates are most influenced by Fintech.

The Social and Psychological Challenges Faced by The Graduate Group in Shenzhen

Shenzhen is one of the metropolises with highest economy growth and people are often attracted by such cities as there would be more opportunities. Also, in order to appeal and recruit talents, Shenzhen government has implemented several polices which favor them to migrate settle down. There are three major types of labors: undergraduate students, migrant workers and workers from talent programs. In this paper, undergraduate students will be the focus. Undergraduate students are facing with severe unemployment problem. The insufficient market demand and changing demand are the main reasons for difficulties of employment for undergraduate students. On top of that, there are many other factors, such as weak global economic growth, China’s low economic growth rate, slow adjustment and upgrading of China’s industrial structures, to name just a few, have challenged the employment of graduates. This paper will discuss about undergraduate students’ psychological and social dilemmas as well as analyze the general social problems.

О влиянии профессиональной структуры занятости на рост экономики современной России

The paper attempts to identify the relationship between the professional structure of employment and the growth rate of the economy of modern Russia based on correlation analysis and construction of regression models using regional statistics. The obtained research results show that the expansion of the scale of using the labor of managers can contribute to an increase in the rates of economic growth, which corresponds to the trends in the development of the post-industrial economic system. The use of unskilled labor slows down economic growth, which indicates the use of outdated relict technological structures. The absence of a significant impact of skilled labor on the rate of economic growth indicates that industrial technologies are used that have exhausted the possibilities of increasing labor productivity. The absence of a significant impact on the rate of economic growth of specialists indicates that their role in accelerating scientific and technological progress is insignificant. This may be due to insufficient research and development, limited funding for this area of activity. The use of skilled labor in agriculture and forestry, fish farming and fishing slows down economic growth, which indicates that these industries are based on outdated relict structures.

Asymmetric Response of Poverty to Growth and Inequality in South Africa: Implications for Current and Future Shocks

Abstract This study investigates the effect of economic growth on poverty reduction, given inequality in South Africa. It focuses on whether the poor suffer more losses of welfare during economic recessions and depressions than they gain during expansions. It further explores the factors that can assist the poor to stay afloat during times of economic shocks. Individuals in micro-datasets are matched with municipality-level data and in binary, truncated, panel, instrumental variables and quantile regression techniques to estimate poverty and welfare effects of positive and negative economic growth rates. The study finds that, whilst economic growth reduces poverty, it is not enough to compensate for the poverty-raising effects of inequality. Moreover, economic decline raises poverty, but economic prosperity more than compensates by a higher magnitude. The study also reveals that social grants, free health care and free basic education policies have limited effects on poverty reduction during economic downturns. Additionally, the provision of good education up to tertiary level and access to the labour market are crucial for sustaining poverty reduction efforts in South Africa. The findings call for policy measures that reduce inequality and promote economic growth to help cushion the poor during times of significant economic decline.

Energy use, emission rate and economic growth linkages among Asian superpowers

The paper explores the relationship between energy use, economic growth and emission rates for Asian giants such as China, India and Japan. As these countries are the regional economic powers and also the major global carbon emitters, it is inevitable to conduct a research study to find the possible relationship between energy use, emission and growth among these countries by the panel data analysis over the period from 1991 to 2020. Higher energy usage increases greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in countries, with agricultural sectors, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and urban populations contributing significantly. Energy use influences economic growth and emission levels, positively affecting GHG emissions. Furthermore, current initiatives taken by these three Asian superpowers for net zero carbon emission and relevant suggestions are also highlighted for emission reduction without compromising the economic growth and sustainable use of energy resources.

«Тіньовий» сектор економіки та нелегальне підприємництво: історико-економічний аналіз

The article is devoted to the historical and economic study of the development of the "shadow" sector, tracing the historical roots of the shadow economy in the independent Ukraine. The author establishes that in conditions of political and economic instability, shadow relations create additional threats to the effective functioning of the economy. The article emphasizes that the problem of the shadow sector is actualized by the tasks of strengthening macroeconomic stability in wartime and liberalizing the business environment for post-war recovery. The purpose of the article is to analyze the trends in the functioning of the shadow economy, in particular, to identify the features of the development of illegal entrepreneurship in Ukraine during the Soviet period. The author analyzes the views of foreign and domestic scientists on the definition of scientific terminology, as well as the components of shadow economic activities and their scale. Based on the analysis, the article traces the historical trajectory of development of the shadow economy. The following factors of the spread of shadow relations are identified: hypertrophied centralization of the economy, the absence of private property and freedom of entrepreneurship, and the government’s neglect of the shadow economy. The shadow economy was inherent in all stages of the development of the Soviet economy, but the tendency to its expansion was observed since the late 50s of XX century. At the same time, a decrease in the rate of economic growth and the softening of the action of the punitive apparatus, a sharp reduction in the non-public sector, and the strengthening of monopolistic phenomena in the economy led to the growth of illegal economic activities. Common forms of illegal entrepreneurship have been identified, namely: household services, crafting, so-called "tsekhovyky", teams of unofficial seasonal workers, speculation, etc. Shadow activities also included fictitious accounting, violations in retail trade and public catering, etc. The main mechanisms of illegal entrepreneurship include, in particular, shadow redistribution and use of raw materials and materials, illegal production, illegal trade, unofficial currency circulation, conducting business activities using official powers or privileges and front persons, legalization of illegal income, corrupt actions against regulatory authorities, etc. The author identifies the positive and negative aspects of shadow business activities in the Soviet period. It is established that the cause of the shadow economy in independent Ukraine is the deepening of negative trends inherited from the Soviet past. The basis of many shadow schemes was corruption in government bodies. Emphasized the importance of conducting a research dedicated to identifying the historical roots of the shadow economy, and to searching for proper means to reduce the level of shadowing in the modern economy.

Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Cyprus: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic and Borrower-Specific Factors

This study empirically investigates the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) within the Cypriot banking sector by employing Pearson’s correlation analysis and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations. Utilizing a sample of 200 NPLs granted to individuals by a Cypriot banking institution from 2013 to 2019, the study examines both macroeconomic and borrower-specific factors influencing NPLs. The findings reveal significant associations between borrower profile characteristics - such as gender, age, education level, professional and financial standing, and place of residence - and loan-specific details, including loan purpose, type of collateral, and NPL status and rescheduling. The study also identifies that lower economic growth, higher inflation, and higher interest rates correlate with an increase in NPLs. Moreover, borrower-specific variables like return on assets and loan growth significantly affect NPL levels. These results offer valuable insights into management in taking corrective actions and have important policy implications for regulatory authorities in formulating effective economic policies. Additionally, the study guides potential investors by highlighting key risk factors associated with NPLs in Cyprus.

Impact of Economic Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility on FDI Inflows: Cointegration and Causality Tests for the BRICS Countries

This paper examines impact of economic growth, exchange rate volatility, and the real exchange rate on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to BRICS economies. We employed the cointegration testing to investigate the long-term relationship between the selected regressors and Granger Non-Causality test to analyze the direction of causality between variables. Diagnostic tests were conducted to check serial correlation in our model and to detect model misspecification. The stability of parameters at a 5% significance is graphically presented. The results indicate that economic growth is a positive significant determinant of FDI inflows in both the short and long term, and exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate have a negative insignificant impact on FDI inflows in the short run, with the exchange rate showing a positive significant link in the long run. The relationships with control variables are mixed: the coefficients of gross fixed capital formation display a positive and significant relationship with FDI inflows in the short run, but an insignificant one in the long run. Trade openness and inflation demonstrated an insignificant link to FDI inflows, while GDP per capita had a positive significant impact in both terms. These findings offer valuable insights for policy reforms and economic integration across countries.