Traffic Growth Rate Research Articles

Prediction of bridge deck condition rating based on artificial neural networks

An accurate prediction of the future condition of structural components is essential for planning the maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation of bridges. As such, this paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict future deck condition for highway bridges in the State of Alabama, the United States. A library of 2572 bridges was extracted from the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) database and used for training, validation, and testing the ANN model, which had eight input parameters and one output being the deck rating. Specifically, the eight input parameters are Current Bridge Age, Average Daily Traffic, Design Load, Main Structure Design, Approach Span Design, Number of main Span, Percent of Daily Truck Traffic, and Average Daily Traffic Growth Rate. The results indicated the obtained ANN model can predict the condition rating of the bridge deck with an accuracy of 73.6%. If a margin error of ±1 was used, the accuracy of the proposed model reached a much higher value of 98.5%. Besides, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for individual input parameters revealed that Current Bridge Age was the most important predicting parameter of bridge deck rating. It was followed by the Design Load and Main Structure Design. The other input parameters were found to have neglectable effects on the ANN’s performance. Finally, it was shown that the obtained ANN can be used to develop the deterioration curve of the bridge deck, which helps visualize the condition rating of a deck, and accordingly the maintenance need, during its remaining service life.
 Keywords:
 condition rating; bridge deck; deterioration curve; artificial neural networks; sensitivity analysis.

Impact of Margins Evolution Along Ageing in Elastic Optical Networks

We compare the cost efficiency of optical networks based on elastic transponders when accounting for network ageing that impacts link margins. Network design of Germany50, France43, and India71 WDM backbone networks is simulated for providing results during a ten-year period, given different throughputs, traffic growth rates and cost erosions of elastic optical transponders. We also investigate the distribution of the ageing margins and modulation schemes that might be changed during the life of the network, before its end-of-life. We evaluate the potential benefits of finer granularity rate-adaptive transponders to better progressively fit ageing of the margin in wavelength division multiplexing networks. The underlying technology and cost savings are presented for the three aforementioned network core topologies.

ANALISIS PERENCANAAN OVERLAY PADA RUAS JALAN CRAKEN-NGULUNGKULON NAMBAK-NGULUNGKULON DENGAN BAHAN ACL PADA STA 0.00-13.345 KECAMATAN MUNJUNGAN KABUPATEN TRENGGALEK

Nowadays, the development of road capacity and vehicle quantity and the lack of optimal traffic infrastructure operations are the main problems in the Nambak-Ngulungkulon Craken-Ngulungkulon road section. This road is the object of observation because the road is an integrated system of the Nambak-Ngulungkulon Craken-Ngulungkulon road network. It is necessary to analyze how the performance and the thickness of the flexible pavement layer needed. To analyze road performance and calculate pavement thickness, the writer uses the Bina Marga 2017 method with ACL material at STA 0.00 - 13,345. The results of the analysis and calculation for the geometric planning of the Nambak-Ngulungkulon Craken-Ngulungkulon road section obtained the value of surface course with the 2017 Bina Marga method of 13 cm. Overlay work on the planning age is carried out in the 15 the year with an additional layer thickness with the Bina Marga 2017 method of 3 cm. And the traffic growth rate increased by 28.65% for 10 years y.a.d.Saat ini pengembangan kapasitas jalan dan kuantitas kendaraan dan kurangnya operasi infrastruktur lalu lintas yang optimal adalah masalah utama di ruas jalan Nambak-Ngulungkulon Craken-Ngulungkulon. Jalan ini adalah objek pengamatan karena jalan tersebut merupakan sistem yang terintegrasi dari jaringan jalan Nambak-Ngulungkulon Craken-Ngulungkulon. Perlu untuk menganalisis bagaimana kinerja dan ketebalan lapisan perkerasan lentur yang dibutuhkan. Untuk menganalisis kinerja jalan dan menghitung tebal perkerasan, penulis menggunakan metode Bina Marga 2017 dengan material ACL di STA 0,00 - 13,345. Hasil analisis dan perhitungan untuk perencanaan geometrik ruas jalan Nambak-Ngulungkulon Craken-Ngulungkulon diperoleh nilai permukaan jalan dengan metode Bina Marga 2017 13 cm. Pekerjaan overlay pada usia perencanaan dilakukan pada tahun ke-15 dengan tambahan ketebalan lapisan dengan metode Bina Marga 2017 3 cm. Dan tingkat pertumbuhan lalu lintas meningkat sebesar 28,65% selama 10 tahun y.a.d.

Highlighting the Ongoing Roads Infrastructure Challenges: Car Ownership Rates in Iraq

Vehicles that use highway facilities have increased rapidly last decades mainly due to increasing of population and also due to industrials development for vehicles. In Iraq, it has been noticed that the car ownership has been increased since the year of 2003. This paper uses real data taken from the Central Statistical Organization of Iraq (CSO) to focus on car ownership in Iraq as a whole as well as focusing on each province separately. The finding of this paper highlighted the ongoing traffic problems due to sharp increase in the number of vehicles and the unusual traffic growth rate. The expected number of vehicles during the next 10 years is estimated and expected to increase from 4.5 million on 2013 to be as minimum as 11 million private cars. This will create a new challenge for Iraq roads infrastructure which must be enhanced significantly so as to cover such increase in traffic. The results suggest that the average car ownership per 1000 people is increased from 58 to 124 from 2003 to 2013. The average car ownership per households has also increased from 0.39 to 0.83 vehicles per households. Significant differences in car ownership rates are found among Kurdistan, middle and south regions in Iraq. The annual traffic growth rate during the last 10 years of 11.5% is found which is much higher than the population growth rate of 3.14%.

A business case for 5G mobile broadband in a dense urban area

5G networks are envisioned to provide consumers and industry with improved transmission performance and advanced communication possibilities. To deliver on this promise of ushering in faster downloads and lower latency, mobile network operators are called upon for substantial investment in network infrastructure. Investors and operators need a clear 5G business case before making such investment. So far, very little research has been published on the topic of the 5G business case. This article studies the impact of different elements driving the business case of a 5G network. The study was performed within 3 boroughs of central London, UK, for the period 2020–2030. 5G-related costs and revenues were calculated to derive the business case. The results show that the business case for a 5G network providing mobile broadband services alone is positive over the time period 2020–2030 but has some risk in the later years of this time period. The business case is also particularly sensitive to assumptions on the revenue uplift and the rate of traffic growth which are inherently challenging to forecast. The sensitivity analysis shows that the return on investment becomes negative if both traffic and costs are significantly higher and revenues increase more slowly than our baseline forecasts. Network sharing helps to substantially improve the business case. Further research is needed to understand the business case on a regional or nationwide basis, and for a network that provides additional services beyond broadband.

Revisiting core traffic growth in the presence of expanding CDNs

Traffic growth forecasts announce a dramatic future for core networks, struggling to keep the pace of traffic augmentation. Internet traffic growth primarily stems from the proliferation of cloud services and the massive amounts of data distributed by the content delivery networks (CDNs) hosting these services. In this paper, we investigate the evolution of core traffic in the presence of growing CDNs. Expanding the capacities of existing data centers (DCs) directly translates the forecasted compound-annual-growth-rate (CAGR) of user traffic to the CAGR of carried core link traffic. On the other hand, expanding CDNs by building new geographically dispersed DCs can significantly reduce the predicted core traffic growth rates by placing content closer to the users. However, reducing DC-to-user traffic by building new DCs comes at a trade-off with increasing inter-DC content synchronization traffic. Thus, the resulting overall core traffic growth will depend on the types of services supported and their associated synchronization requirements. In this paper, we present a long-term evolution study to assess the implications of different CDN expansion strategies on core network traffic growth considering a mix of services in proportions and growth rates corresponding to well-known traffic forecasts. Our simulations indicate that CDNs may have significant incentive to build more DCs, depending on the service types they offer, and that current alarming traffic predictions may be somewhat overestimated in core networks in the presence of expanding CDNs.

Effect of variation of the average daily volume and traffic growth rate on flexible pavements performance

espanolEl diseno del pavimento, inicialmente basado en metodos empiricos, ha sido mejorado y, actualmente hay una tendencia a sustituir estos metodos por metodos empirico-mecanicos. Esta nueva metodologia utiliza la informacion detallada del trafico, del clima y de la estructura del pavimento para obtener predicciones precisas de desempeno, proporcionando un mejor diseno. En este trabajo, se realizo un analisis de sensibilidad de los pavimentos flexibles para investigar el efecto que tiene la variacion del transito promedio diario anual (TPDA) y la tasa de crecimiento del trafico en las respuestas estructurales al pavimento. Por lo tanto, las simulaciones se realizaron mediante dos programas de ordenador, el programa MEPDG y el AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, cuyos resultados indicaron que el pavimento tiene sensibilidad a ambas variaciones estudiadas (TPDA y tasa de crecimiento del trafico), demostrando mayores valores de deterioro cuando la tasa de crecimiento del trafico fue no lineal. Tambien se concluyo que la diferencia entre los valores de sensibilidad obtenidos por los dos programas era insignificante. EnglishPavement design, initially based on empirical methods, has been improved and, currently, there is a tendency to replace these methods by mechanistic-empirical ones. This new methodology uses detailed information on traffic, climate and pavement structure to obtain accurate performance predictions, providing a better design. In this study, it was performed a sensitivity analysis of flexible pavements to investigate the effect that the variation of annual average daily traffic (AADT) and traffic growth rate has on structural pavement responses. Therefore, simulations were done using two computer programs, MEPDG and AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design, whose results indicated that the pavement has sensitivity to both variations that were studied (AADT and traffic growth rate), demonstrating higher deterioration values when the traffic growth rate was nonlinear. It was also concluded that the difference between sensitivity values obtained by both programs was insignificant.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Pavement Treatments Using Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

This paper evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pavement treatments based on the equivalent area method, which uses the area bounded by posttreatment performance curve, threshold, and unified standard service time, as the measure of effectiveness. Multiple linear regression analysis was applied to analyze the influence of factors including traffic level, milling, characteristics of a road section, surface thickness, and crack treatments. Life-cycle cost analysis was conducted to compare the cost-effectiveness of different treatment strategies over a 20-year analysis time frame. Three different asphalt mixtures with different gradations and three preventive treatments including ultrathin friction overlay, hot-in-place rehabilitation, and microsurfacing were investigated. The data of pavement surface condition index (PCI), riding quality index (RQI), and rutting depth index (RDI) collected in Zhejiang Province in China were adopted to evaluate the treatment performance. Analysis results showed that a lower traffic growth rate and a thicker asphalt layer are associated with a higher treatment effectiveness. Lighter traffic volume and a thicker asphalt layer contribute to higher cost-effectiveness. Milling and crack treatment appear to increase effectiveness but reduce cost-effectiveness. Road sections with a big curvature and long, steep slopes tend to have lower effectiveness. In addition, alternately using an asphalt overlays and preventive treatments showed a high cost-effectiveness and is recommended. Microsurfacing is cost-effective when applied relatively early in the pavement life.

The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects

Ex-post evaluations of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) of transportation projects are scarce in the literature. If conducted frequently, they could reveal the extent to which objectives are achieved and may give inputs that can improve the quality of ex-ante BCAs. We first explain the usefulness of ex-post BCA evaluations of transportation projects, depending on which planning phase a project is in. We then perform ex-post BCAs on 27 Norwegian road projects that have been in service for at least 5 years and compare the results with the ex-ante BCAs that were presented to the decision-makers. We use two different measures of aggregating the magnitudes of accuracy; the Mean Percentage Error (MPE) and Mean Absolute Percentage (MAPE). Using MPE, we find that: (1) ex-ante BCAs underestimate the actual net present value (NPV) by 50% on average and, the NPV per dollar invested by a mere 0.14% points on average; (2) the traffic level and traffic growth rates are often underestimated ex-ante, leading to an underestimation of the benefits and; (3) construction costs are underestimated by 5% on average, which is too small to offset the observed underestimation of benefits. By default, MAPE shows higher values of inaccuracies implying that one should not be indifferent as to the measure used. Overall, the Norwegian ex-ante BCAs perform fairly well. We urge that the authorities concerned must improve their traffic forecasts and construction cost estimates to assure that the ex-ante objectives are met. The upkeep of ex-ante data is essential to enable ex-post evaluation which, ceteris paribus, will enhance the transparency and credibility of BCA as an appropriate decision-making tool.

A survey on key roles of optical switching and labeling technologies on big data traffic of Data Centers and HPC environments

The tremendous big data and IP traffic growth rate between interconnected Data Centers (DC) and High Performance Computing (HPC) environments have imposed the need for ultrahigh link capacities and ultrahigh packet switching speeds, at network nodes. In order to overcome these ultrahigh demands, and particularly packet routing and forwarding speeds, long tested and established technologies, such as optical switching and labeling technology, seem to provide adequate solutions, not only by conveying ultrahigh bit rate data streams, but also by achieving multi Tb/s cross connection throughputs, in a cost and energy efficient way. By adoption of optical switching and labeling technology, big data streams are propagating directly in optical layer, thus lessening down bottlenecks, latency issues, and multi stage hierarchy layering. This paper, apart from optical switching and labeling potentials, investigates thoroughly other critical issues, strictly related to the proper choice of employing a switching architecture layout, such as its implementation technology, its elasticity potentials, in terms of flexible bandwidth (BW) provisioning, its adopted control plane lying on top of data infrastructure plane, providing cognition, control and orchestration over its network elements, as well as related to the proper choice of optical labeling techniques adopted, in conjunction with current, advanced, coherent, multi level modulation formats, for ultrahigh link capacities and packet switching speed demands of scalable, big data interconnected DCs and HPC environments.

Penilaian Impak Trafik ke atas Sebuah Pembangunan Baharu di Kawasan Kejiranan Bandar Ampang di Selangor

Traffic impact assessment (TIA) on a proposed commercial development in the neighbourhoods of Ampang Town in Selangor was conducted. In this study, trip rate analysis and regression analysis were carried out to assess future traffic expected to be generated by the proposed new commercial development. Calculations of trips were based on the Malaysian Highway Planning Unit (HPU) Trip Generation Manual (TGM) Malaysia 2010 related to a category of proposed new commercial development. Before and after construction study on the proposed new commercial development at neighbouring critical intersections and roads was carried out to determine existing and projected traffic volumes. A Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software was used to analyse traffic growth rate. This procedure uses a growth factor in the traffic data to show an increase in demand for transport journeys in the future. Then, intersections and roads traffic performances were analysed using the Signalised and Un-signalised Intersection Design and Research Aid (SIDRA) software. Result of SIDRA analysis with traffic projection horizon of year 2026 shows deterioration in Level of Service (LOS) D at one of the existing main junctions leading to the proposed new commercial development. Finally, traffic improvements were proposed to address future impact of generated traffic caused by the proposed new commercial development. Consequently, this study has provided a framework for TIA preparation and would assist developers and local authorities in their decision making to meet all the requirements needed in the design and improvement of traffic flow.

Transport policies, induced traffic and their influence on vehicle emissions in developed and developing countries

We consider the implications of highway expansion and travel demand management policies for road traffic emissions. We examine the extent to which induced traffic and travel can partly erode the benefit of emission reduction arising from capacity expansion, and compare the results with corresponding values for user benefits. We then consider the effect on emission profiles over time of congestion charging which attempts to reduce travel demand in the peak period. Using a simplified partial equilibrium simulation model over a twenty five year period we contrast the situations in developed and developing countries where the emission profiles may take very distinct forms. We show that, due to the alignment of 'volume' effects and 'speed' effects, the benefit of emission reduction associated with capacity expansion policies may be severely compromised by induced traffic, and exceeds that of user benefits. We confirm that demand management policies which internalise the costs of congestion can be effective in containing or reducing emissions over the simulation period, and in ameliorating the effects of induced traffic that accompany capacity expansion. We establish multiplier relationships between the reduction of emissions and the quantity of demand priced off or otherwise restrained from use of a road, and examine for different traffic growth rates the implication for effectiveness of demand-based policies.

Optimal Timing for Lane(s) Addition to an Existing Highway: A Benefit–Cost Approach

The present study presents a comprehensive framework for optimal highway capacity expansion through lane(s) addition. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated using data from a multi-lane urban arterial. In the proposed methodology, annualized widening costs (agency lane addition cost and work zone user delay cost) and excess user costs for do-nothing scenario (excess travel delay cost, excess vehicle operating cost and excess crash cost) were estimated for each analysis year within highway life cycle to estimate a range of traffic volumes for highway capacity expansion. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of optimal time for highway capacity expansion to: (1) annual traffic growth rates (2) agency to user cost relative weights and (3) annual discount rate. Study results revealed that optimal highway capacity expansion time corresponds to an ADT ranging between approximately 34,430 and 37,600 vehicles per day for the case study traffic mix conditions. The sensitivity analysis results revealed that increase in agency to user cost relative weight and annual traffic growth rate would result in later and earlier optimal highway capacity expansion, respectively, while variations in annual discount rate have minimal impact on optimal highway capacity expansion timings. It is anticipated that the application of proposed framework can result in a sustainable decision by saving a huge amount of agency expenditures and excess user costs due to non-optimal decisions.

A decision support framework for economic evaluation of flexible strategies in pavement construction projects

ABSTRACTA fuzzy real options methodology is utilised to help highway management organisations select the supreme alternative for project implementation. The uncertainties inherited from input factors, i.e. unit costs of construction work items, unit rates of user costs, annual traffic growth rate and annual discount rate, are addressed through fuzzy set theory, and the managerial flexibilities associated with initial construction, preventive maintenance and rehabilitation are modelled using real options (RO) theory. The framework presented for Pavement Alternative Selection by RO-based Decision Support system (PASRODS) is a software package that has been developed using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and Visual Basic for Applications and includes three main components: Database, Model and Reports. PASRODS analyses the project in a year-by-year staged backward dynamic programming solution. Application of PASRODS in a highway project case study in Iran demonstrates that taking the managerial flexibilities into account results in valuing the projects in a more rational and actual manner. On the other hand, considering different attitudes of the decision-maker may lead to changes in alternative ranking and help in selecting supreme one in terms of numerous aspects.

Sensitivity analysis of influencing factors in probabilistic risk assessment for airports

Risk assessment methods in aviation greatly rely on the knowledge of the factors influencing risk and safety during daily operations. One of the weak points of the common approaches in aerodromes is the qualitative method to support decisions respect to quantitative evaluations. In this study, three airports with diverse characteristics (i.e.; aircraft annual movements, airfield geometry, and runway features) were selected for the analysis.The RSARA© (Runway Safety Area Risk Assessment) software, which is based on the Aircraft Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) model, has been utilized as a starting point for further sensitivity analyses of probabilistic risk assessment of each airport’s runway with determined casual factors, including runway geometry, traffic characteristics, and weather conditions. A comprehensive airports incident/accident database between years 2000 and 2015 was also used to perform the sensitivity analyses.By providing different independent variables as input in the frequency model of RSARA, the outputs were useful to determine the influence of each of the casual factors on the accident probability of occurrence. Selected variables include: runway length in terms of declared distances, Runway Safety Area geometry, instrumental landing system category, weather operational data and annual traffic growth rate. The sensitivity analyses showed that the weather condition and runway related factors played a major role in increasing or decreasing the probability of the accident; the probability of landing overrun (LDOR) can be increased by four times, for instance, due to specific combinations of runway length and climatic conditions. Engineered arrestor beds such as EMAS also has the potential to decrease by 50% the risk of LDOR and can be selected as an effective choice compared to other pavement materials within the RSA.Identifying critical variables on the occurrence of high-severity runway accidents could influence the aerodrome design, operating scenarios, regulations, emergency planning and risk management measures and techniques.

Empirical-Markovian model for predicting the overlay design thickness for asphalt concrete pavement

An Empirical-Markovian model has been developed to predict the overlay design thickness for asphalt concrete pavement from relevant design parameters. The Empirical-Markovian model mainly predicts the structural capacity of overlaid pavement as a function of the structural capacity associated with original pavement, annual traffic growth rate, rehabilitation scheduling time, and two calibration constants. The structural capacity is evaluated using either the structural number or gravel equivalent deployed by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and Caltrans design methods for flexible pavement, respectively. The Empirical-Markovian model provides the practitioner with two options as related to the performance of overlaid pavement. The first option enforces the performance of overlaid pavement to be similar to that of the original pavement, an objective achieved by requiring the deterioration transition probabilities for overlaid pavement to be the same as the corresponding ones for original pavement. The second option imposes improved performance of overlaid pavement compared to that of the original pavement, an objective accomplished by requiring the deterioration transition probabilities of overlaid pavement to be lower than the corresponding values associated with original pavement. The two calibration constants can be estimated by either minimising the sum of squared errors applied to historical records of pavement distress (forward approach) or a backward solution of the developed Empirical-Markovian model mainly relying on historical records of pavement rehabilitation. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate the use of both forward and backward approaches with results seem to be in line with the common practice.

Putting sustainability theory into roadway design practice: Implementation of LCA and LCCA analysis for pavement type selection in real world decision making

Assessment of life cycle costs and environmental impacts of pavements has become an essential component of roadway design and asset management. The existing literature reveals that the economic and environmental sustainability of pavements depend on specific project characteristics. Hence, recent studies have called for real world case studies of pavement construction projects to better understand how the life cycle costs and environmental impacts of pavements vary based on different project characteristics. To this end, present study conducted comprehensive LCA and LCCA analyses to investigate the sustainability of different pavement alternatives for the SR 836-Southwest Extension Project in Miami, Florida. The study considered the agency costs and impacts as well as various use phase impacts and costs including those connected with pavement vehicle interaction and work zone traffic delays. In addition, the uncertainty related to the costs and impacts of construction and maintenance activities was assessed. The results indicated that at 90% confidence interval the flexible pavement design has lower cost and environmental impacts in the construction phase. However, when all phases are taken into consideration, the rigid pavement alternatives have lower environmental impacts and costs. The analysis also examined the sensitivity of the results to different parameters such as the discount rate and future traffic growth rate. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicated that the flexible pavement design has lower agency costs compared to rigid pavements at discount rates less than 4%. For discount rate values greater than 4.5%, the rigid pavement leads to lower life cycle costs.

Assessment of the Remaining Life of Bituminous Layers in Road Pavements

In this paper, a mechanistic-empirical approach is presented for the assessment of bearing capacity condition of asphalt pavement layers by Falling Weight Deflectometer measurements and laboratory fatigue tests. The bearing capacity condition ratio was determined using past traffic data and the remaining fatigue life which was determined from multilayer pavement response model. The traffic growth rate was taken into account with finite arithmetic and geometric progressions. Fatigue resistance of layers’ bituminous materials was obtained with indirect tensile fatigue tests. Deduct curve of condition scores was derived with Weibull distribution.

Traffic Analysis for Storage Finding in Video on Demand System

The literature survey typically predicated sharp growth for IP-based video traffic i.e., 30% or more annually. For the Internet TV in mobile networks, video traffic growth rate is expected to rise 80% or more. These high growth rates of video traffic will account for a large portion of the bandwidth. The performance of video-on-demand system during real-time data streaming greatly depends on the session oriented data-storage finding in the mass scale distributed storage architecture. At the storage end, data is broken up into manageable chunks of data packets, which could be smoothly, deliver over the Internet. The objective of this study was to present the necessity of traffic control and traffic analysis methodology in the video on demand system to minimize the hop count for finding exact media storage to retrieve video chunk data.

Energy‐efficient multiperiod planning of optical core network to support 5G networks

AbstractWith the rapid growth of traffic and power consumption in information and communication technology industry for decades, improving energy efficiency has become a challenging issue in recent years. Especially, the pervasive access to Internet via mobile devices will cause wireless traffic volume increment by 1000+ times in near future, which is expected to be carried by the fifth generation ultradense cellular network. Following this trend, the core network where optical fibers are deployed to deliver aggregated traffic needs upgrading to accommodate the increasing traffic volume. To match with the traffic growth rate, we should conduct efficient network planning over multiple time periods. Moreover, considering the heterogeneity in the bandwidth requirements among various network services, flexible mixed line rate scheme is adopted in network provisioning. In this paper, we study the long‐term multiperiod planning of optical core network by considering the traffic growth with the objective of high energy‐efficiency. Three planning strategies, say All‐period, Incremental, and End‐of‐Life, respectively, are studied and formulated as mixed integer linear programming models with the objective to minimize power consumption of optical core network. Given the estimation on the reduction of power consumed by various network devices, we can deploy network devices flexibly in each period through the optimization models. Performance of the proposed models is also evaluated and compared via case studies.