Growth Rate Of Prices Research Articles

Reasons for accelerating inflation in the Russian economy

The article shows that the increase in inflation in 2020—2024 is associated with the acceleration of the growth rate of the money supply. The main contribution to the growth of the monetary base was made by transactions with the National Wealth Fund, which were not sterilized. Following this, there was an acceleration in the growth rate of lending, supported by preferential programs and a decrease in the required reserve ratio, which was reflected in an increase in the credit multiplier. Accelerated growth in the money supply led to an increase in the growth rate of consumer prices. The current phase of the economic cycle, together with the labor shortage, is increasing inflationary pressure. Inflation growth could have been even greater if not for the increased demand for real cash balances and high rates of real GDP growth in 2023—2024. Along with a tight monetary policy, additional measures to reduce inflation may include slower indexation of regulated prices and excise rates; limiting the growth rate of the consumer and auto loan portfolio of commercial banks; increasing reserve requirements for them.

A Study of the Quantitative Impact of Different Credit Policies on Real Estate Price Volatility in the Housing Finance Market

Real estate industry is an important industry of national economy in any country, which constitutes an important element of the wealth of the whole society and has a stable and long-term impact on national economy and social development. Based on the price theory of supply-demand equilibrium and the theory of real estate cycle fluctuation, the article combines the stock-flow model and vector autoregression model of real estate price to establish a quantitative analysis PVAR model of credit policy on real estate price fluctuation. Data from 31 provincial regions in China from 1998 to 2023 are selected as the research samples, and the specific effects of different credit policies on real estate price volatility in the housing finance market are verified through empirical analysis. When the scale of credit policy expands by 1 percentage point, real estate prices will increase by 0.00611 percentage points, while credit interest rates have a positive impact on real estate price volatility for 6 to 7 periods, and then change to a negative impact. Different regions under the credit policy on real estate price volatility there are differences, and the faster the growth rate of real estate prices in the region credit policy on real estate prices to promote the role of the more obvious. Real estate price regulation needs to accurately combine regional and economic development, so as to optimize the credit policy of the housing finance market, and then ensure the stability of real estate prices.

Trend and Instability Analysis of Milk Prices in Major Markets of India

The growth rate of production and per capita availability of milk and growth rate, variability and convergence/divergence of retail prices of milk in the major consuming markets of India has been examined in this article using annual production and per capita availability of milk data for the period from 1980-81 to 2022-23 and deseasonalised monthly milk retail prices from 1975-76 to 2022-23 was utilized to study the growth rate, variability and convergence/divergence of retail prices of milk. The entire period was further divided into two sub-periods and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation around the trend and Bandyopadhyay (1989) methodology were applied to examine the growth rate, variability, instability and convergence/divergence of milk retail prices. The study concluded that the production and per capita availability of milk was increasing continuously. The highest average milk retail price was recorded in Delhi market during TE2022. The growth rate of milk retail prices were increased in Delhi and Kolkata markets while in Mumbai and Chennai markets, it was reduced from sub-period I to sub-period II. The variability of milk retail prices were reduced from sub-period I to sub-period II in all the selected markets. The Mumbai market exhibited highest reduction in variability in milk retail prices while the Chennai market showed lowest reduction in retail price of milk from sub-period I to sub-period II. The positive and negative deviation trend lines were diverging during sub-period I while they were converging during sub-period II. This indicated that instability of milk retail price was reducing during sub-period II. The reduction of variability and instability in milk retail prices was caused by the increased production and per capita availability of milk, increased milk processing capacity and improvement in marketing infrastructure in the recent time.

The effect of house price constraint conditions in land granting on the second-hand housing market: evidence from Beijing, China

ABSTRACT To curb the surge in housing prices, Chinese governments have introduced various measures in the real estate market. House price constraint conditions (HPCCs) are conditions for sale in land granting which restrict the selling price of newly built houses. Such unique practice has been used as price regulation and signal in many cities with little understanding of its impact. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness, mechanism, and cost of HPCCs on the second-hand housing market for policy improvement, completing existing literature primarily focusing on housing policies. We collected data on land granting and second-hand house transactions in Beijing, which was the first to implement HPCCs. Employing difference-in-difference and other empirical techniques, we find that land granting with HPCCs alters buyers’ and sellers’ behaviours and expectations, leading to a significant decrease in the price level and growth rate. However, HPCCs are associated with lower supply, increased speculation, inequality issues, and potential loss of fiscal revenue. Policymakers need to improve HPCCs while considering market-oriented regulation tools.

The cost-efficiency carbon pricing puzzle

Any global temperature target must be translated into an intertemporal carbon budget and its associated cost-efficient carbon price schedule. Under the Hotelling’s rule without uncertainty, the growth rate of this price should be equal to the interest rate. It is therefore a puzzle that many cost-efficiency IAM models yield carbon prices that increase at an average real growth rate above 7% per year, a very large return for traders of carbon assets. I explore whether uncertainties surrounding the development of green technologies could solve this puzzle. I show that future marginal abatement costs and aggregate consumption are positively correlated. This justifies doing less for climate change than in the safe case, implying a smaller initial carbon price, and an expected growth rate of carbon price that is larger than the interest rate. In the benchmark calibration of my model, I obtain an equilibrium interest rate around 1% and an expected growth rate of carbon price around 3.5%, yielding an optimal carbon price above 200 USD/tCO2 within the next few years. I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to cost-efficiency carbon pricing implies a large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint. I show that green investors should be compensated for this risk by a large risk premium embedded in the growth rate of expected carbon prices, rather than by a collar on carbon prices as often recommended.

Energy prices and the structure of inflation in European Union countries

Abstract Since 2022, in almost every inflation category, a strong divergence in price dynamics among the EU countries has become visible. The first aim of this paper is to assess the impact of changes in energy prices on the differentiation in price dynamics in individual inflation categories in EU countries. The second aim is to isolate those components of inflation that have significantly differentiated the countries in the crisis year of 2022. The research was conducted based on the vector-autoregressive model, the Granger causality test, cluster analysis and analysis of variance. It can be concluded that there is a causal relationship between energy prices and the differentiation in the price growth rate in certain inflation categories. In 2022, the EU member states were divided into two quite distinct clusters. This article adds value to current research by taking into account the level of variation in the inflation structure among EU countries.

Are milk quota prices a rational investment? Modeling quotas as financial assets

AbstractOur objective in this paper is to examine the growth of the price of farm milk quotas in Canada, to shed light on their patterns of growth within the last 15 years. Our quota price model is based on the Gordon growth model, supplemented by some important characteristics of the milk quota market. Our explanatory variables include the quota rental price, interest rate, and expectations of both price and quantity growth, all for the province of Alberta over the 2009–2023 time period. Our economic model of quota prices performs well by giving results with the predicted signs for all variables in our model and high levels of statistical significance except for expectations of quantity allocations when entered separately. The model has two variants, one with the expectation of growth in quota rents and the other with the expectation of growth in the quota asset price. Econometric issues related to time series problems are dealt with. The model allows calculation of policy risk, which shows an interesting pattern over this time period.

Uncertainty of the Export VAT Rebate Policy: Measurement and Its Effects

Abstract Based on the export VAT rebate rate data from 2004 to 2015, this paper measures the uncertainty of Chinese export VAT rebate policy by using unexpected fluctuation of export VAT rebate rate, and finds that the index varies across products, years and industries. Then, the paper studies the influence of the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy on China’s export growth from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The research results show that this uncertainty reduces the expected profit of export enterprises and their optimal output, and significantly reduces the growth rate of the ordinary export that applies the export VAT rebate method, but it has no impact on the processing export. By decomposing total value of exports, it is found that the growth in the number of ordinary export relationship and average sales decrease with the increase of uncertainty, while the average price growth rate increases slightly, and these effects are only reflected in the newly entered export relations. The findings suggest that when the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy is high, enterprises are more cautious about entering the ordinary export market and more likely to adopt a low-quantity-high-price strategy.

Low carbon optimization dispatching of energy intensive industrial park based on adaptive stepped demand response incentive mechanism

In order to reduce the operation cost and carbon emissions of the energy intensive industrial park (EIIP) system, a low-carbon optimal dispatching method considering the parameter adaptive demand response (DR) incentive mechanism is proposed. Firstly, the carbon capture system (CCS) and power to gas (P2G) equipment are introduced into the EIIP. Meanwhile, according to the different regulation types of loads’ DR capacity, a stepped DR incentive mechanism model including three parameters of interval length, compensation base price and price growth rate is proposed; Secondly, a bi-layer optimization model with the objective of minimizing the operation cost at the energy supply side and maximizing the energy efficiency at the load side of the EIIP is established. The DR Mechanism parameter optimization layer is constructed outside the two-layer optimization model, so as to establish a three-layer optimization model of the stepped DR mechanism considering parameter adaptation; The Kepler optimization algorithm (KOA) is used to optimize and implement the adaptive changes of mechanism parameters, further demonstrate the mechanism in the low-carbon optimal dispatching of EIIP; Finally, the simulation results based on multiple scenarios show that the proposed method improves the effectiveness of EIIP system operation economy and reduces carbon emissions.

The comparative analysis of the economic availability of antihypertensives from the group of beta-blockers in Ukraine

The comparative analysis of the economic availability of antihypertensives from the group of beta-blockers in Ukraine

The tail risk of crude oil Price_Based on EPU and geopolitical risk perspective

This study investigates the conditional prediction of crude oil price growth rates as a function of geopolitical risk (GPR) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU), characterizing the extreme tail risk characteristics. Utilizing monthly data on crude oil futures price growth rates from 1997 Jan to 2022 Dec, we employ Quantile Regression and Growth at Risk models to capture the heterogeneous and asymmetric effects of GPR and EPU across different quantiles of the oil price distribution. The sample period covers major geopolitical events, economic recessions, and the emergence of new energy sources, providing a comprehensive view of the factors influencing crude oil market dynamics.The empirical findings reveal significant asymmetries in the forecast density function of crude oil price growth rates, with periodic right-skewed deviations during financial crises and epidemic situations, and prevalent left-skewed deviations during the remaining sample periods. The impact of EPU on crude oil prices is found to be more pronounced in the short to medium term, while the influence of GPR persists over a longer duration, exacerbating the upside risk of price growth. The study highlights the effectiveness of EPU and GPR in capturing the tail characteristics of crude oil price growth, offering valuable risk identification indicators for policymakers and market participants.Furthermore, the analysis uncovers the heterogeneous effects of EPU and GPR across different quantiles of the oil price distribution. The results indicate that the relationship between these uncertainty measures and crude oil prices varies depending on the market conditions and the specific quantile examined. This finding underscores the importance of considering the entire distribution of crude oil prices rather than focusing solely on the conditional mean.The study contributes to the existing literature by providing a comprehensive examination of the role of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in driving crude oil price dynamics, with a particular focus on tail risks. The findings have important implications for risk management strategies in the energy sector.By employing advanced econometric techniques and considering a wide range of geopolitical and economic factors, this study offers new insights into the complex and evolving nature of crude oil price dynamics. The results highlight the need for policymakers and market participants to consider the asymmetric and heterogeneous effects of uncertainty measures when assessing the risks and opportunities in the crude oil market.

Derivation of Growth of Import Demand: A Time Series Analysis of Less Developed Countries

In this article, growth of import demand is estimated in a dynamic optimisation framework. Since a conventional micro-theoretic import demand function cannot capture the issue of the growth of import demand, it is derived in a macro-theoretic framework of equilibrium import demand function. Growth rate of import demand in a dynamic optimisation framework (considering utility maximisation problem) has not yet been found in the literature. The main focus of this article is to derive this. It is found that growth rate of imports is the function of the growth of domestic income or expenditure, the growth rate of relative price, which is nothing but the real exchange rate, and productivity of capital. The theoretically derived import growth equation was empirically verified for 35 less developed countries. It is observed that for most of the less developed countries, independent variables are statistically significant with expected sign. JEL Codes: F130, F14

From vacancy to verdancy? The impact of land options on the timing of vacant lot investment

AbstractLand vacancy is a persistent phenomenon leading to various socioeconomic issues in postindustrial cities. We examine the relationship between the timing of vacant lot investment and land options and compare two investment options using a quasi‐experimental design: housing investment that develops vacant lots into housing, and greening investment that converts vacant lots into gardens and reserves redevelopment options. By compiling a unique lot‐level time‐to‐event dataset based on a large‐scale vacant lot greening program in Philadelphia, we address the questions of whether and how introducing the option of greening investment to vacant lots can expedite initial investment and reduce vacancy. With the greening option, initial investment on vacant lots becomes less irreversible, thus reducing time in vacancy by 50% and elevating the hazard rate of investment by 80%. We test for the presence of the real options channel, identifying a decelerating (accelerating) effect of price uncertainty (price growth rate) on the timing of housing investment and insignificant effects of the factors on the timing of greening investment. Our findings suggest that vacant lot greening as an anti‐blight strategy is more effective to expedite investment in neighborhoods with elevated uncertainty, subdued growth rate, moderately lower income, and heightened vacancy.

Extrapolative Uncertainty and Household Economic Behavior

We examine the uncertainty in households’ expectations regarding macroeconomic outcomes, namely inflation and the rate of nationwide home price growth. We document that people extrapolate from the instability of their personal and local environment when assessing the future volatility of these macroeconomic variables. Consequently, there are within-person spillovers in subjective uncertainty regarding different economic outcomes. This extrapolative behavior is more pronounced among lower-numeracy individuals, and it persists throughout the business cycle. People with more uncertain macroeconomic expectations are more likely to engage in precautionary behaviors regarding consumption and equity market exposure and are more concerned about credit market access. This paper was accepted by David Simchi-Levi, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00820 .

Anti-inflationary Policy in Russia and Steps for Reducing the Volatility of Inflation

Inflation as a process of monetary depreciation is a debatable issue for many theorists. It is formed under the influence of various reasons: monetary emission, increased government spending, global crises, budget deficit, monopoly of big companies on price determination, trade union monopoly, and others. There are many types of inflation, which are classified depending on a specific feature (the rate of price growth, the nature of the flow, causes, etc.). The paper concludes the need to focus more attention on anti-inflationary policy, while considering not just monetary levers but also non-monetary levers, follow modern trends and look for better mechanisms. The results caused actions of a well-coordinated mechanism of public authorities and their cooperation with credit organizations, the principle of simplicity and publicity, improving financial literacy of the population and considering all available opportunities in the information society. By implementing these steps, the state can more effectively influence to bring about anti-inflationary policy. The materials of scientific research can be useful to specialists in the economic field, scientists, postgraduates, undergraduates.

Liquidity constraints and speculation: Evidence from the housing-resale restriction policy in Qingdao, China

ABSTRACT This article seeks to explore the efficacy of the Housing-Resale Restriction (HRR) policy in curtailing housing speculation, complementing existing literature that primarily examines the impact of taxation. The HRR policy directly reduces speculative opportunities through heightened liquidity constraints. Employing the methodology of regression discontinuity in time (RDiT), this study analyzes the impact of liquidity constraints on housing price growth rates based on the monthly community-level data from Qingdao, China, where the HRR policy was the most stringent in terms of scope and holding time requirement. The results show that the HRR policy reduced housing price growth rates by 1.3881 to 2.1001% points on average. Moreover, the disincentive impact was less pronounced in affluent, recently developed communities and those near subway stations. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to regulate the real estate market, mitigate excessive speculation, and prevent market bubbles.

LPG, Gasoline, and Diesel Engines for Small Marine Vessels: A Comparative Analysis of Eco-Friendliness and Economic Feasibility

As an escalating global concern for environmentally sustainable marine fuels, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is attracting attention as an eco-friendly and economical alternative. This study explored LPG utilization in small marine vessels, focusing on its eco-friendliness and economic feasibility. To assess its environmental implications, the AVL FIRE simulation program was used to compare CO2, CO, NO, and soot emissions from LPG engines with those from conventional gasoline and diesel engines. The LPG engine model relied on data from a pioneering type-approved experimental LPG engine designed for small South Korean marine vessels, while parameters for gasoline and diesel engines were adjusted to suit their distinctive features. Regarding long-term economic feasibility, assuming a 30-year ship lifespan, incorporating 2022 annual average prices, average annual price growth rates, and annual fuel consumption data of each fuel, results indicate that LPG engines exhibited lower CO2, CO, NO, and soot emissions than conventional engines, except that NO emissions were higher than gasoline engines. Evaluating LPG’s economic feasibility over a 30-year ship life cycle for an individual vessel revealed varying fuel cost savings, with the greatest savings observed in gasoline–other (KRW 2220.7 million) and the least in gasoline–coastal (KRW 1152.5 million). These findings offer vital insights for ship operators and policymakers seeking a balance between eco-friendliness and cost-effectiveness, as well as LPG engine technology emerging as pivotal for a sustainable future, harmonizing environmental protection and economic viability.

ВЛИЯНИЕ РАЗОВЫХ ФАКТОРОВ ИНФЛЯЦИИ НА СТОРОНЕ ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЯ НА ГОДОВОЙ ТЕМП ПРИРОСТА ЦЕН (НА ПРИМЕРЕ НОВГОРОДСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ)

Food security continues to be a priority area of scientific research as one of the most important components of the economic security of individual regions and the country as a whole. Various aspects of food security, factors affecting it, tools and methods for ensuring and main-taining it are comprehensively studied. Price increases are considered as one of the most im-portant among the factors influencing the processes of food security formation. The article ex-amines the impact of one-time supply-side inflation factors on price inflation for food products, the production and consumption of which is an integral part of ensuring food security in the Novgorod region. In the presented work these inflation factors were studied in relation to two categories of food products, which occupy a significant share in the structure of food consumed. These are meat products (pork) and chicken eggs. Among the one–time factors of inflation on the supply side, natural factors were considered (primarily epizootic -the outbreakof African swine fever) and organizational and economic (the closure of an enterprise which providedtwo thirds of the production of edible eggs in the region). As a result of the conducted research, a character-istic of the price dynamics in the categories “Pork” and “Eggs” in the Novgorod region over a number of years was obtained in comparison with the average Russian values and indicators of the Northwestern Federal District. The analysis confirmed the fact that one-time inflation factors can significantly affect the dynamics of the annual rate of price growth, necessitating their con-sideration when making economic and managerial decisions regarding the socio-economic de-velopment of the region.

Impact of Cost of Capital, Financial Leverage, and the Growth Rate of Dividend on Market Price per Share on Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study seeks to investigate the relationship between the Impact of cost of capital, financial leverage, and the growth rate of dividendson market price per share Nepalese commercial bank. To empirically investigate a sample of 22 commercial banks of Nepal listed in the NEPSE has been selected. The data period for the study is nine years from 2010/11 to 2018/19. The dependent variable is the market price per share whereas for independent weighted average cost of capital, debt ratio, earning per share, net profit margin, dividend per share, and growth rate of dividend are used. The data have been analyzed by using descriptive statistics, correlation, and multiple regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that all the independent variables are positively related to market price per share. The result shows that the growth rate of dividends, dividend per share earnings per share debt ratio, net profit margin, weighted average cost of capital, and market price per share are positively correlated. The regression result reveals that the beta coefficient for weighted average cost of capital is negative, but earnings per share, dividend per share, net profit margin, debt ratio, and growth have a positive beta coefficient.

Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?

We use a housing search model and data on individual home listings to decompose short-run fluctuations in home sales and price growth into supply or demand factors, defined as the number of new sellers and buyers entering the housing market, respectively. We find that fluctuations in the number of buyers demanding homes explain much more of the variation in home sales and price growth than do fluctuations in the supply of homes for sale. In our preferred paramaterization, fluctuations in demand explain essentially all of the variation in home sales, and most of the variation in prices. We consider two implications of these results. First, we show that reduction of supply was a minor factor relative to an increased number of buyers in the tightening of housing markets during COVID-19. New for-sale listings would have had to expand 30 percent to keep the rate of price growth at pre-pandemic levels given the pandemic-era surge in demand. Second, we estimate that the number of buyers demanding homes is very sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, even more so than comparable estimates for home sales, suggesting that policies that affect housing demand through mortgage rates can influence housing market dynamics.