Rate Of Price Change Research Articles

From hard bed to luxury home: impacts of reusing HM Prison Pentridge on property values

This paper uses statistical analyses to understand the effect of proximity of old prisons on property prices. The study employed semilog hedonic regression models: a quantitative research method applied to assess the impact of proximity to heritage gaols on property prices for a case study of HM Prison Pentridge in the time range between 2015 and 2019. Results demonstrated that the former Pentridge has a variable effect on properties lying in and around its current heritage borders. Pentridge shows a diminution effect on prices of residential properties on its land currently being developed to a mixed-use precinct, as well as its intimate surrounding residences. Inversely, Pentridge shows a positive price effect on properties lying at distances between 400 m and the maximum study range of 1400 m in the case of ‘houses’ and between 600 m and the range of 1000 m in the case of ‘units.’ Findings of this research suggest that prices of properties with direct visual access to Pentridge’s structures are negatively affected. Results also suggest that Pentridge’s current redevelopment project may have contributed positively to property prices lying outside the direct visibility zone. To be able to further validate these interpretations, similar research may consider other variables influencing property valuation, such as direct visibility of the gaol as well as interviews that assess the ‘attractability’ of Pentridge’s redevelopment. Future studies may examine the rate of change in property price along time for each distance band from the gaol borders. Future research may also consider duplicating the methodology to assess the comfortability towards gaols converted to museums, as well as gaols that are still in operation. The originality of this research emerges from the distinct lack of quantitative evidence in the current literature. Most research has investigated uncomfortable heritage focusing on qualitative assessments of memory, stigma, commemoration, and shame, with limited scholarly attention paid towards property depreciation effects as a result of Australia’s prison history, nor increasing effects due to gaols’ reuse and redevelopment. Decision-makers and stakeholders of equivalent dark heritage reuse projects will find this research useful in understanding potential impacts on surrounding property prices. Property valuers and real estate companies operating in Coburg—a suburb of Melbourne, Australia—may use the related tables and figures in guiding their business for the coming years.

Optimization production model and financial feasibility analysis on planning of integrated lontar sugar industry in Rote Ndao District, East Nusa Province, Indonesia

Abstract. Fahrizal, Jasman, Nggadung Y, Kartiwan. 2020. Optimization production model and financial feasibility analysis on planning of integrated lontar sugar industry in Rote Ndao, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Trop Drylands 21: 25-30. In general, lontar (Borassus flabellifer) sugar consists of molded sugar and crystal sugar produced from lontar sap. Both types of sugar can be produced together in one business unit, but in fact, most home industries produce them partially. This research aimed to obtain an optimization of production model and financial feasibility of integrated lontar sugar industry. The linear programming optimization method was used to determine the optimal amount of molded and crystal lontar sugar production with the objective function of profit maximization. The model was validated on lontar sugar home industry in Rote Ndao District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. Scenario of price change and interest rates were used to measure the level of sensitivity of financial feasibility. The results showed that a maximum profit of IDR 186,741 was obtained by producing 47.25 kgs of molded sugar and 57.93 kgs of crystal sugar every day. The financial feasibility analysis of IRR, NPV, and BC indicators showed that the project was still feasible when the sugar price fall down by 10%, the price of lontar sap increased by 20%, and interest rates rose to the level of 24%.

Cayyene pepper: structure and supply chain performance in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia

The research aims to examine the structure and performance of the cayenne pepper supply chain. The study was conducted in Gorontalo from January to March 2019. The research was using the survey method. Data analysis was using descriptive and marketing efficiency analysis. The results showed 1) The structure of the cayenne pepper supply chain in Gorontalo Province consists of seven distribution channels. Sale of cayenne pepper by farmers through collectors (40 percent), wholesalers (26.67 percent), market traders (10 percent), and retailers (23.33 percent). The primary members of the cayenne supply chain consist of farmers, collectors, wholesalers, out-of-town traders, market traders, retailers, consumers, and agroindustries. The secondary members are farm shops, banks, transportation service providers, the Agriculture Service, and information media. 2) The most efficient distribution channel is channel six because the smallest marketing efficiency value is 3.17 percent. The cayenne pepper’s market in Gorontalo runs inefficiently because it has a price transmission elasticity value of 1.11 (Et> 1). It means the rate of change in prices at the consumer level is greater than the rate of change in prices at the farmer’s level.

A Study on the Determinants of Unsold Apartments in Integrated Changwon City Using Fixed Effect Model

본 연구는 통합창원시를 중심으로 미분양 아파트에 변화를 일으키는 요인을 분석하고 그중 가장 크게 영향을 미치는 요인은 무엇인가를 분석하는 데 목적을 두었다. 연구결과의 요약은 통합창원시 미분양아파트의 변화는 2016년을 기점으로 이전과 이후에 따라 다른 양상으로 나타났다. 창원시의 2016년 이전에는 아파트매매가격변화율이 큰 영향을 미쳤지만, 창원시의 2016년 이후에는 기존에 허가받았던 2011~2013년 사이의 주택건설인 허가량이 2년6개월∼3년 후 공급으로 반영되면서 부터 창원시 미분양에 가장 큰 영향을 미친 것으로 파악되었다. 또한, 연령별 30대는 소득수준이 낮아 아파트매매, 분양률에는 영향을 미치지 못하고 전 월세에 치중되어 있기에 30대보다는 소득수준이 높은 40대, 50대의 인구수가 늘어가는 것이 아파트 미분양률을 감소시키는 요인이 되었다. 또한 2016년 이전과 달리 2016년 이후 창원시 아파트 미분양에 영향을 미치는 변수들이 다양해진 것으로 보아, 창원시 주택건설인허가실적은 물론 창원시의 인구변화율, 아파트매매가격변화율, 아파트전세가격변화율, 회사채수익률(금리)의 영향력이 2016년 이전보다 커진 것으로 파악되었다.1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors that cause unsold change in Changwon-si and to find out which factors most influence them. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study employed the fixed effect model to achieve the major objectives of this study. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS As an implication of this study, I would like to put great significance in conducting a study on unsold decision models in Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do, which has the most unsold in Korea. In addition, I would like to see that one of the achievements was to be able to identify the differences between the two periods before and after 2016. 2. RESULTS The summary of the study results showed that the change of unsold apartments in Changwon City was different from before and after 2016. Although the change in apartment sales price had a big impact before 2016, the Changwon City s housing construction permits between 2011 and 2013, which were previously granted after 2016, were reflected in supply after 2 years 6 months to 3 years. It was found to have the biggest impact on unsold pre-sale in Changwon City. In addition, unlike 2016, the variables that affect the unsold apartments of Changwon City since 2016 have been diversified. In addition, Changwon City s housing construction permit approval rate, population change rate, apartment sale price change rate, apartment chonsei price change rate, and corporate bond yield rate’s influence is greater than before 2016.

The relative price of capital and economic structure

Are trends in the price of capital technological in nature? First, we find that trends in the relative price of capital vary significantly across countries. We then show that a multi-industry growth model, calibrated to match differences in economic structure around the world and productivity growth rates across industries, accounts for this variation – mainly due to variation in the composition of capital. The finding indicates that the rate of change in the relative price of capital can be interpreted as investment-specific technical change – the extent to which productivity growth is relatively more rapid in the capital-producing sector. The model also accounts for the empirical dispersion of investment rates, but not of rates of economic growth.

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Appropriateness of Liquidity Ratios Model in Predicting Shareholder Wealth of Non-Financial Firms Listed at Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya

It is necessary that efforts are put in place by the global investing public to address the ever increasing need to accurately measure performance and financial strength of firms (Pandey, 2013). Analysts of financial statements and investors at the stock market consider a multiplicity of factors and metrics when making decisions on what stocks to invest in. Not much is known on whether change in market prices of securities really reflects results of published financial statements. Whether liquidity ratios models is appropriate for predicting the market prices of shares of firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) is the sole question this study endeavours to address. Correlational research design was used. A census of all non financial firms listed at the NSE was conducted and secondary data collected through computation of average rate of change (AROC) in market price of shares, computation of current ratios (CR) and net working capital to total assets (NWCTTA) of non financial firms listed at the NSE for the financial years 2012 to 2016. Panel data was analysed using descriptive statistics, inferential statistics and diagnostic tests. Inferential statistics involved development and testing of predictive ability of liquidity ratios panel data regression model. It was established that announcement of annual financial statements led to a positive mean AROC in market price of shares. Liquidity ratios did not have statistically significant influence on AROC in market price of shares. CR had a statistically insignificant negative effect while NWCTTA ratio had statistically insignificant positive effect on AROC in market price of shares for non financial firms listed at NSE. Also the liquidity ratios model was found not to be statistically significant appropriate in predicting shareholder wealth of non financial firms listed at NSE. Keywords: Average rate of change in market price, liquidity ratios models, current ratio and net working capital to total assets DOI : 10.7176/RJFA/10-22-14 Publication date: November 30 th 2019

Impact of a Vicinity of Airport on the Prices of Single-Family Houses with the Use of Geospatial Analysis

This article analyses the adverse impact of Chopin Airport in Warsaw on the prices of single-family houses located within the aircraft noise impact zone. The specific feature of the largest airport in Poland is its location within the city limits and the resulting direct surroundings of both multi- and single-family housing developments. Not only is the nuisance due to the proximity of the airport resulting from the actual exposure to an excessive noise level but also from legal restrictions associated with the Limited Use Area (LUA). The study used statistical modeling by applying a classic multiple regression model, spatial autoregressive model and geographically weighted regression model. Moreover, Geographical Information System (GIS) tools and geostatic modeling were used to visualise the results. The modeling results clearly show the significant impact of the neighborhood nuisance and the related spatial distribution of real estate prices. In addition, the geographically weighted regression model indicates that the proximity to an airport adversely affects the rate of price changes over time.

주택가격 변동률이 주택연금 가입에 미치는 영향 분석

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of housing price and housing price change on Reverse Mortgage Subscribers. For this purpose, VECM model was constructed by analyzing the number of Reverse Mortgage subscribers, housing price change rate, and housing price time series data from January 2008 to December 2018. Panel A model, which consists of 2 variables of housing price and housing pension subscriber, and Panel B model, which added variable of housing price change rate. As a result of the impact analysis on the VECM model, the number of housing pension subscribers was positively affected by the impact of 1 unit of standard deviation of house price. The results of the analysis of the addition of the housing price change showed that the standard deviation of the house price fluctuation is affected by the negative direction of one unit. The housing price change rate has been shown to have a negative effect on the number of Reverse Mortgage subscribers from the time lag 1 to the lag 5, As a result, the housing pension subscriber responds sensitively to the housing price fluctuation rate for about 5 months, and it’s negative influence continued. Therefore, in order to activate Reverse Mortgage subscription, it is necessary to stabilize the housing market by reducing the housing price change rate.

Structural Policy: Towards a New Investment Model of Economic Growth

The article examines structural policy as a tool for developing a new economic growth model in Russia. The author considers the conditions of economic growth based on increased investment. The purpose of the article is to determine the current characteristics of the Russian economy structural dynamics by the components of GDP and basic sectors. The basic sectors of the current investment structure have been assessed — processing sector and transactional and raw materials sector — and the directions for further development have been specified. The research methodology consists of: structural analysis of GDP and sectoral dynamics; the received and applied “structural formula” of assessing the contribution of the system elements to economic growth; formulated simple optimization models and a numerical optimization method (gradient projection method). The method of empirical and statistical estimates has also been used. Optimization models have made it possible to demonstrate the solution to the problem of distributing investments between the sectors with a target function for maximum profit and minimum risk. The analysis of growth and the conditions for economic growth obtained by the model-analytical method — in terms of the rate of change in oil prices and the exchange rate — allowed us to empirically show periods of growth and recession in the economy. They depend on the growth rate of oil prices and the devaluation of the rouble. This approach, with further use of econometric models linking macroparameters, will make it possible to evaluate the effect of changes in structural parameters on economic growth. The overall result of the study is as follows: the intensification of investments is insufficient to organize the investment model of economic growth in Russia. The stimulation of gross consumption and a change in the structure of investments are required. It is necessary to reduce the gap between the sectors by risk mitigation. External factors affecting the economic growth in Russia (oil prices, currency inflows) must be eliminated by changing the structure, including the sensitivity increase of its elements to macroeconomic policy instruments, and differentiating sectoral policy measures considering the positive impact on the contribution of GDP components and sectors of money growth and inflation.

Stochastic asset price dynamics and volatility using a symmetric supply and demand price equation

A symmetric supply/demand model of price dynamics is developed and used to understand the relationship between price change and volatility. This differs from the classical approach in which the expected rate of price change and variance are assumed to be independent. The microeconomic and stochastic analysis leads to the conclusion that a particular measure of the marginal volatility has a minimum shortly before the expected log-price has an extremum. The maximum of the volatility occurs when prices are likely to change most rapidly, and the supply/demand imbalance is greatest. The great bubble and collapse of Bitcoin’s price serves as a test of this analysis. The volatility reached a minimum shortly prior to the peak of Bitcoin’s price in December 2018. The model is further developed under the assumption that supply and demand depend on the fundamental value of the asset. Thus the paper is a key step in understanding the issue of whether volatility highs and lows can forecast trading price tops and bottoms. The methodology can be extended beyond log-normal returns and is further compared with an empirical study of 40 sharp market boom/bust events studied by Sornette et. al. (2017).

Chain bankruptcy size in inter-bank networks: the effects of asset price volatility and the network structure

One bankruptcy of a certain bank can make another bank go bankrupt. This phenomenon is called chain bankruptcy. Chain bankruptcy is a kind of “systemic risk,” a topic that has received a great deal of attention from researchers, recently. Here, we analyzed the effect of the asset price fluctuation and the inter-bank lending and borrowing network on chain bankruptcy by using an agent-based simulation. We found that: (1) as the rate of change in asset price grows, the total number of bankruptcies increases. On the other hand, when the rate of change in asset prices exceeds a certain value, the total number of bankruptcies became unvarying; (2) as the density of links increases, the total number of bankruptcies decreases, except when a certain situation occurs in core–periphery networks. These results suggest that factors causing bankruptcy are asset price fluctuations and the network structure of the inter-bank network.

The Effect of Oil Price on Stock Market Returns with Moderating Effect of Foreign Direct Investment & Foreign Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Market

This paper investigates the moderating impact of FDI & FPI in the association of macro-economic variables along with Oil prices & Index returns. Monthly data has been used from the period 2005 to 2018. Efficient unit root & breakpoint unit root tests results indicate that all variables are stationary at 1st difference. Co-integration test results signify the presence of long-run relationship in model. GARCH (1,1) model has been applied for analyzing the volatility in the data series. Furthermore, least square method is employed to check dependency & fitness level of model. In order to investigate the moderating impact, regression technique has been applied. Findings of LSM technique indicate that index returns aren?t significantly dependent on macro-economic variables on 1st difference of data series because variables predicting behavior has been changed with respect to stationarity of data. Exchange rate & interest rate have negative significant association with index returns. Oil prices & foreign direct investment have positive relationship with stock market return. FDI & FPI are unable to moderate significantly model dynamics. For estimating the panel regression model, 11 different sectors data is used and results show that exchange rate & oil prices have positive significant impact on sector wise price change but interest rate has significant negative association.

THE POWER OF ACCESSIBILITY TO LAND PRICE IN SEMARANG URBAN CORRIDORS, INDONESIA

Urban land demand tends to keep increasing as a result of economic and population growths. The high intensity of activity will bring changes to land value. The corridors of Semarang - Ungaran and Semarang - Mranggen have significant differences in land values despite being at relatively the same distance to city centre. Similarly, the rate of land price change in these two corridors are also different. The study aims to examine and prove the effect of distance to city centre toward land price in downtown areas by employing statistical correlation analysis and accessibility calculation. The result reveals that distance to city centre has no longer effect land prices. It was found that the farther from the city centre the land prices decreases gradually but increases at road nodes that connect to the trip generation points such as toll road gate, residential area and commercial area or shopping centre.

THE POWER OF ACCESSIBILITY TO LAND PRICE IN SEMARANG URBAN CORRIDORS, INDONESIA

Urban land demand tends to keep increasing as a result of economic and population growths. The high intensity of activity will bring changes to land value. The corridors of Semarang - Ungaran and Semarang - Mranggen have significant differences in land values despite being at relatively the same distance to city centre. Similarly, the rate of land price change in these two corridors are also different. The study aims to examine and prove the effect of distance to city centre toward land price in downtown areas by employing statistical correlation analysis and accessibility calculation. The result reveals that distance to city centre has no longer effect land prices. It was found that the farther from the city centre the land prices decreases gradually but increases at road nodes that connect to the trip generation points such as toll road gate, residential area and commercial area or shopping centre.

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate: Effects on Disaggregated Prices in a FAVAR Model for Brazil

This paper investigates the effects of monetary and exchange rate shocks on disaggregated prices of the Brazilian Consumer Price Index (IPCA), from 1999 to 2011, using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR). We estimate the model with Bayesian techniques, and construct impulse-response functions using sign restrictions over the responses of macroeconomic variables. The main results are: a) taking into account the weights, 50% of the rates of price change at the sub-items level fell after a monetary shock and 40% rose after exchange rate's shock; b) only 0.3% of the sub-items showed price puzzle for monetary shocks and 4.7% for exchange rate shocks; c) macroeconomic shocks are more persistent than series-specific shocks; d) for the sub-itens, series-specific shocks are the main determinants of the variance, but macro shocks are more influent over aggregated series e) the answers are different according to the sector considered.

Comment on “Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation?”

Understanding the price dynamics is always at the heart of studies on monetary policy. If prices are flexible, there is no need for monetary policy as a stabilization tool. If not, central banks should offer some nominal anchor so that welfare costs stemming from relative price dispersion should be reduced. Watanabe and Watanabe (2018) conduct careful analyses using micro data. Two main conclusions are: a simple menu cost model can explain the price developments in Japan well in that “there is a negative correlation between trend inflation and the share of items whose rate of price change is near zero,”1 and the “inflation norm” is too low in Japan. Watanabe and Watanabe provide comprehensive empirical facts to support these two conclusions. It also merits attention that the observed empirical regularities are replicated with simulations using a simple menu cost model. Structural interpretations of the empirical findings are offered albeit indirectly via model simulation. Not only do Watanabe and Watanabe offer convincing facts in understanding the Japanese economy from the view point of positive analysis, but also the findings in their paper have an immediate policy implication: It is not easy for Japan to attain an inflation target of 2%. Papers with important facts and significant policy implications are always good and highly appreciated. Watanabe and Watanabe's paper is one of these good papers. Thus, I do not have any particular comments to oppose their main conclusions. Let me comment on what we do not know from the data, and the policy implication. We do not know the markups in individual goods. In their menu cost model, nominal rigidities are favored as the way to explain price developments in Japan. This conclusion is mainly supported by the analyses in Sections 2.2 and 2.3 about the flattening of the reduced-form Phillips curve. However, we still cannot conclude that this less clearer relationship between inflation and unemployment rates is as a result of higher nominal rigidities possibly due to menu costs, since we cannot observe marginal costs. The relationship between inflation and unemployment rates can be just a reduced-form one. In the language of the New Keynesian model, unemployment or the output gap must be structurally related to markups. Otherwise, a causal argument is not possible. I am not fully sure whether such a relationship is stemming from menu costs or higher real rigidities around zero inflation rates. Real rigidities arise when marginal costs are sticky or marginal revenues are flexible. The former can be caused by habit formation in consumption, endogenous capacity utilization or investment growth adjustment costs as included in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model a la Christiano et al. (2005), while the latter can emerge with a kinked demand curve as examined in the first-generation New Keynesian Model a la Kimball (1995). In order to identify the causes of the less clearer relationship between inflation and unemployment rates, it would be ideal if we can use the marginal cost data as examined in Eichenbaum et al. (2011). The inability to observe markups means that a careful interpretation of the analyses in Watanabe and Watanabe's section 4 is required. If the relationship between unemployment and markup is not stable nor structural, increasing real rigidities around zero inflation rates can explain the fact that “price stickiness as measured by the share of unchanged items increases as the inflation rate declines from a positive value to zero.” More stickiness around lower inflation rates should imply higher welfare costs stemming from relative price dispersions. On the other hand, menu costs are small near zero inflation rates. Besides the problems due to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, should the central bank really care about inflation developments near zero inflation rates? This point is related to the conclusion made by Nakamura et al. (2016) that “the main costs of inflation in the New Keynesian model are completely elusive in the data. This implies that the strong conclusions about optimality of low inflation rates reached by researchers using models of this kind need to be reassessed.”

Vertical price relationships between different cuts and quality grades in the U.S. beef marketing channel: A wholesale-retail analysis

The present article offers an empirical assessment of the degree and the structure of price dependence between wholesale and retail market levels in the U.S. beef industry, while accounting for product differentiation. This is pursued using the statistical tool of copulas and monthly rates of price changes for different cuts and quality grades of the beef product for the time period 2002–2016. Six wholesale–retail pairs were formed based on different cuts and quality grades. The empirical results suggest that prices at retail level respond differently to extreme negative and positive wholesale price shocks. More specifically, extreme price increases at the wholesale level are transmitted to the retail level in five out of six pairs whereas extreme price decreases are not passed from the wholesale to the retail market level in five out of six pairs. Based on these findings, there is evidence of asymmetric price relationships between wholesale–retail market levels in the U.S. beef marketing channel, when quality differences in cuts and grades are considered.

Distortionary effect of trading activity in NYMEX crude oil futures market: post crisis

AbstractIn light of the ongoing growth in hedge fund and investment bank exposure in the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures market since the global financial crisis, we have applied linear causality tests to identify if each individual trader group in the disaggregated commitment of trader's report have prior destabilising effect on market return (the rate of change in crude oil prices), price volatility and the futures‐spot spread in the period 2009–2015. Consistent with the CFTC's disaggregated classification system, the trader groups considered are physical participants, swap dealers and money managers. In order to capture the nonlinear causality relationship, the Diks and Panchenko (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006, 30, 1647) non‐parametric causality approach has also been utilised. Test results demonstrate that changes in the net positions of physical participants has both linear and nonlinear positive causality on expected market return, as well as feedback loops. Change in swap dealers net position, however, only have linear bidirectional causality with market return and futures‐spot spread, with unidirectional Granger causality with price volatility. While money managers were not price trend followers, they have preceding influence on market risk and return dynamics. It can be concluded that swap dealers and money managers have distortionary effect on market return, price volatility and the futures‐spot spread. Instead, Physical participants distortionary effect is restricted to market return.

Firm Dynamics and Pricing Under Customer Capital Accumulation

What is the relationship between the rate at which firms accumulate their stock of demand over time and the prices that they set for their products? This paper analyzes the implications of customer capital accumulation for pricing behavior and firm dynamics. We build a tractable directed search model of the product market in which firms are ex-post heterogeneous in their customer base and commit to the prices they post. The model features dynamic contracts with endogenous customer reallocation, endogenous entry and exit of firms, and allows for a tractable characterization of the firm distribution. In equilibrium, there is price rigidity at the firm level, and price dispersion in the cross-section because firms of different sizes use different pricing strategies to strike a balance between attracting new customers and retaining incumbent ones. We show that our mechanism can generate realistic firm dynamics, a right-skewed firm size distribution, and various predictions on the cross-sectional distribution of prices, markups, and the rate and frequency of price changes.