Growth Rate Of Output Research Articles

FDI, Foreign Debt, and Economic Growth: The South Asian Perspective (1980-2020)

The present study examines the intricate relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign debt, and economic growth over the period of 1980 to 2020 in the following countries: India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, and Bhutan. The analysis utilizes data obtained from the World Bank, with productive projects, improved technology and expertise, technological transfer, foreign direct investment (FDI), export, import, and productive projects serving as independent variables. GDP growth is considered as the dependent variable. The model is subjected to rigorous testing procedures, which include the Fisher-Type ADF (for panel unit root), co-integration tests, histogram-based normality assessment, White test for heteroscedasticity, VIF (variance inflation factor) test for multicollinearity, and F-test for parameter significance. These procedures are implemented to ensure the model's robustness. Subsequent analysis is guided by the Hausman test's preference for the Fixed Effects (FE) model over the Random Effects (RE) model. It is worth noting that in both the FE and RE models, a negative correlation is observed between foreign debt and economic growth. The foreign direct investment (FDI) growth rate is inversely proportional to the growth rate of economic output (0.025 percent) and foreign debt (0.117 percent), according to the FE model. The interdependence of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign debt underscores the criticality for developing countries to effectively manage their foreign debt while facilitating FDI inflow. The research emphasizes that policy frameworks in these nations must reduce foreign debt in order to create an environment that is favorable for greater foreign direct investment.

ՀՀ ՏՆՏԵՍՈՒԹՅԱՆ ՀԱՄԱՐ «ՕՏԱՐԵՐԿՐՅԱ ՈՒՂՂԱԿԻ ՆԵՐԴՐՈՒՄՆԵՐ - ՏՆՏԵՍԱԿԱՆ ԱՃ» ԿԱՊԻ ՎԵՐԼՈՒԾՈՒԹՅՈՒՆԸ / ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP «FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS - ECONOMIC GROWTH» FOR RA ECONOMY

The growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) as a component of GDP certainly contributes to economic growth. However, one should not forget that the relationship "economic growth - FDI" is "bi-directional", that is, in addition to the fact that FDI stimulates growth, it is also affected by economic growth. If there are many scientific and practical studies on the first, "traditional" direction of this "two-way" relationship, its other side - the impact of economic growth on FDI, has not been sufficiently studied. The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the growth of RA economy sectors on FDI using regression models. In the given article, the RA economy was regarded as an aggregate of the following sectors: industry, agriculture, construction, services and trade. Multi-factor regression models were built in order to identify and evaluate the connections between FDI and economy sectors in RA. An economic analysis of the results obtained by the models was also performed, and the impact on FDI was estimated for each of the considered factors. Particularly, the econometric analysis shows that, other conditions being equal: • 1% increase in the growth rate of industrial output leads to a 2.6% decrease in the volume of FDI. • 1% growth of the service sector contributes to the 5.5% growth of the volume of FDI. • 1% increase in agriculture leads to a 4.2% increase in the volume of FDI. • Increase in the trade sector leads to the increase of FDI volume, whereas the increase in the construction leads to the decrease of it.

Dilema Harrod-Domar, Lei de Thirlwall e Novo Desenvolvimentismo Verde

ABSTRACT The article aims to address the ecological transition into a model that integrates the Harrod-Domar Dilemma and the New Developmentalism according to a Green New Developmentalism perspective. To this end, this paper focuses on the green sides of the middle-income countries’ traps by introducing a novel concept of the ecologically sustainable output growth rate into the new developmentalism model developed by Oreiro (2023) to identify a balanced ecological growth path. Compensating for the price competitiveness losses produced by the exchange rate over-valuation, Ecological Structural Change and green finance allow for reversing the process of premature de-industrialization by improving the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector.

Африка южнее Сахары: тренды, пропорции и факторы развития

The author’s calculations and models show that although the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) suffered greatly as a result of the plunder of their human and natural resources by the countries of the West during the period of colonial oppression and the centuries-old era of the slave trade, they have managed – after they gained political independence – to achieve on the whole a number of positive socio-economic results. The gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP has doubled, the average number of years of education of the adult population has increased six times, the average life expectancy at birth has augmented by one and a half times, and the human development index has risen by 2.5 times. However, since SSA countries are growing on average slowly and unsteadily, the gap between SSA and the advanced economies as well as many Asian developing countries (ADCs) by levels of development has enlarged significantly, and the total number of poor people in SSA has more than tripled over the past forty years, reaching 1 billion people. Besides the demographic dividend coefficient that is almost twice as low as in ADCs, the low dynamics of per capita GDP growth in SSA, according to our model, is associated by 1/3, 1/4 and 1/10, respectively, with the low rate of GFCF, low growth rates of exports (mainly raw materials), low level of social institutions. Since the assistance of the countries of the West is small and decreasing, and the capacity of markets in SSA countries is low, in order to avoid worsening the situation, they need to (a) increase the share of investments in physical and human capital in GDP at least one and a half times (including by reducing unproductive use of resources), (b) more actively develop intra-African cooperation and foreign economic relations with other developing countries and the Russian Federation, (c) rely on export-oriented industrialization (as SSA lags the most – 3–4 times – behind ADCs in terms of output growth rates of manufacturing industry).

Analysis of Factors That Influence the use of Accounting Information by MSMEs

In general, the performance of small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) varies from year to year. The output growth rate of small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) changes every year. Financial management is one of the problems often faced by MSME. Although the impact of neglecting financial management may not be immediately visible, a potentially growing company can go bankrupt if it does not use proper accounting methods. There are several other challenges faced by MSMEs, such as a lack of accounting or bookkeeping knowledge, not having sufficient funds to hire an accountant or buy an accounting program that makes bookkeeping easier. It is hoped that this research can help micro and small businesses (MSMEs) make decisions about credit applications and tax calculations. MSME Community in Jenggawah, Jember in 2021 are the subject of this research. This research utilizes multiple linear regression analysis. The research results show that accounting knowledge behavior, firm age, and training on accounting have a significant effect on the use of accounting. In general, the performance of small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) varies from year to year. The output growth rate of small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) changes every year. Financial management is one of the problems often faced by MSME. Although the impact of neglecting financial management may not be immediately visible, a potentially growing company can go bankrupt if it does not use proper accounting methods. There are several other challenges faced by MSMEs, such as a lack of accounting or bookkeeping knowledge, not having sufficient funds to hire an accountant or buy an accounting program that makes bookkeeping easier. It is hoped that this research can help micro and small businesses (MSMEs) make decisions about credit applications and tax calculations. MSME Community in Jenggawah, Jember in 2021 are the subject of this research. This research utilizes multiple linear regression analysis. The research results show that accounting knowledge behavior, firm age, and training on accounting have a significant effect on the use of accounting.

Evaluation of Ecological Efficiency and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors in Provincial Coastal Regions Using Integrated Super-Efficiency DEA and Tobit Models

Abstract With the rapid development of the Chinese economy, the demand for resources has increased significantly, putting the environment under increasing pressure. Effectively using various resources has become crucial. This study employs the Super-Efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis to assess ecological efficiency during the same period and conducts a residual analysis on cities with high efficiency but not efficiently analyzed by Data Envelopment Analysis. The primary objective of this approach is to investigate the potential ecological development of these regions. The dynamic assessment of ecological efficiency is done using the Malmquist index, which takes into account changes in the total factor output growth rate. To investigate factors that affect ecological efficiency and their magnitudes, a Tobit model is being established using panel data. From 2017 to 2022, there were changes in ecological benefits among cities in Zhejiang Province due to intense competition between high-efficiency cities and frequent position changes, as evidenced by the results. The gap between cities with middle to low efficiency is narrowing, which suggests that ecological benefits are being balanced in the province despite a decreasing trend. Both the degree of openness and the proportion of asset investment have a significant and positive impact on ecological efficiency. Enhancing interregional communication, optimizing resource allocation, increasing openness, and adjusting industrial layout is essential to sustain technological innovation and progress.

Региональные особенности российских компаний-«газелей» в пандемию

In the context of global turbulence, the Russian national economy needs positive economic practices of resilience and subsequent development. This need is even greater in regional economies, where a few relatively small growth points, including high-growth firms (HGFs, ‘gazelles’), can become drivers for the entire region. The study analyses the performance of high-growing firms and their impact on regional resilience during the acute phase of the global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021). A sample of 11,940 firms (including 403 HGFs) in Sverdlovsk, Vologda, Kurgan, Lipetsk, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk regions, Krasnoyarsk krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan was examined. The research uses such approaches as estimation of the shares of HGFs by number and output and assessment of correlation using the nonparametric method of Spearman’s coefficient. The share of HGFs in the sample as a whole and for each region is consistent with global trends (2-4 %). The industrial structure of high-growth firms differs across regions, meaning that HGFs manifest themselves individually in various regions. ‘Gazelles’ demonstrated a greater ability to preserve jobs during the pandemic in most regions of the sample. For example, while an average employment growth rate was 2 % in 2020, this figure was 25 % for HGFs in Krasnoyarsk krai and Sverdlovsk oblast. During economic recession, ‘gazelles’ positively affect regional resilience in such activities as transport and storage, wholesale and retail trade, and mining. The result is the opposite for manufacturing: a larger share of high-growth companies was characteristic of regions with slower output growth rates for this type of activity in 2020–2121. The findings can be used to substantiate the significance of developing and implementing government support programmes for HGFs at the federal and regional levels.

An analysis of area and production growth rate along with price forecasting of major pulses in Bangladesh

Pulses are the most significant crops in the world, as well as in Bangladesh, for their commer-cial and nutritional importance. The study was carried out to determine the rate of expansion in area and production for several types of pulses such as Mosur, Mung, Mashkalai, Gram, and Khesari in Bangladesh, as well as to anticipate wholesale prices for those pulses. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Department of Agricultural Marketing were used in this study. Following a diagnostic check, such as R2, Adjusted R2, RMSE, AIC, BIC, MAE, and MAPPE, it was discovered that the Cubic growth model was the best for specified pulses. The data over the entire time revealed that total output in the area rose in the case of all pulses. Mosur and Mung had positive average production growth rates of 2.02 and 6.919 percent, respectively. Mashkalai, Gram, and Khesari experienced negative growth rates of -0.541, -8.894, and -0.854 percent, respectively. After computing the average percentage change for Area growth rate Mosur, Mung, and Mashkalai showed positive growth rates of 1.229, 4.631, and 1.152 percent, respectively. In contrast, Gram and Khesari both had negative average values of -7.719 and -1.987 percent. This study applied the ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,1) model for Mosur, ARIMA (0,1,2) model for Mung, ARIMA (2,1,2) model for Mashkalai, ARIMA (2,1,4) model for Gram, and ARIMA (0,1,0) model for Khesari since those models passed the diagnostic test. Forecasting findings revealed that Mosur, Gram, and Khesari wholesale prices would be marginally modified, while Mung and Mashkalai wholesale prices would be raised in 2025. Thus, analyzing the growth rates of area and output of key pulses may help farmers allocate their land more wisely and price forecasts will help farmers in identifying the best crops for their production, which will improve the output of these crops in Bangladesh.

The Impact of Human Development Variables on Agricultural Growth in Iraq for The Period 1990 - 2022

Despite the importance of agricultural sector in Iraq, the reality indicates the inability of this sector to meet the needs required of it, as the reason for this lies in the fact that it is managed by individuals who do not possess the most basic elements of human development, the study aims to measure and explain the impact of human development variables in raising the agricultural growth rate in Iraq during the period from 1990-2022. In order to apply the quantitative aspect of the study, the agricultural output growth rate was adopted as a dependent variable Y. As for independent variables, they included agricultural capital X1, mechanical technology X2, chemical technology X3, agricultural labor X4 and agricultural education X5, depending on the statically software E-views10 and its tests according to the ordinary least squares method (OLS), the results showed the significance of the variables of capital and chemical technology with a positive effect in agricultural growth rate in short and long terms. The negative significant effect of mechanical technology and labor force appeared only in long term, while agricultural education appeared to have a significant and positive effect in the long term. The most important conclusions were reached was that human resources contribute to the development of agricultural businesses until they are considered the main means of achieving large-scale production. We recommend increasing government spending in the areas of education, training and rehabilitation in rural Iraq, as it enables the population to employ their skills and experience in raising the rate of agricultural growth.

The Relationship between Structural Upgrading and Economic Growth of Sports Industry Based on AD-AS Modeling

Abstract This paper determines the structural upgrading measurement indexes of the sports industry by analyzing the metrics from three perspectives: industrial structure advancement, rationalization, and coordination. With reference to the AD-AS model in economics, it introduces the positive exchange factor to improve the comprehensive supply model, utilizes the pressure factor and the negative exchange factor to improve the comprehensive supply-demand model, and obtains the improved SAD-SAS model. Based on the equilibrium relationship between aggregate supply and aggregate demand, five hypotheses regarding influence are proposed. The results show that the output growth rate fluctuation coefficient of the sports industry is 0.25-0.45, and the time, robust, and spatial elasticity economic growth volume shows a stable incremental curve with the incremental increase of time, which illustrates that the structural upgrading of the sports industry and the economic growth is a positive effect significant relationship.

Study on the Influence of Coil Arrangement on the Output Characteristics of Electromagnetic Galloping Energy Harvester.

The arrangement of the induction coil influences the electromagnetic damping force and output characteristics of electromagnetic energy harvesters. Based on the aforementioned information, this paper presents a proposal for a multiple off-center coil electromagnetic galloping energy harvester (MEGEH). This study establishes both a theoretical model and a physical model to research the influence of the position and quantity of the induction coils on the output characteristics of an energy harvester. Additionally, it conducts wind tunnel tests and analyzes the obtained results. With the increase in the number of induction coils, there is a significant improvement in the duty cycle and output power of the MEGEH, resulting in an amplified energy conversion efficiency. At a wind speed of 9 m/s, the duty ratios of a single set of coils (SC), two sets of coils (TC), and multiple sets of coils (MC) are 30%, 51%, and 100%, respectively. The total output powers are 0.4 mW, 0.62 mW, and 0.72 mW. However, the rate of output growth has decreased from 55% to 16%. The position of the coils affects the initial electromagnetic damping of the energy harvester. Changing the position can reduce the initial electromagnetic damping, thereby decreasing the critical wind speed. The critical wind speed of the MEGEH decreases as the induction coil is positioned further away from the vibration center. When the distance is sufficiently large, the electromagnetic damping force becomes negligible. When the induction coil is positioned centrally, the MEGEH demonstrates its maximum critical wind speed, which has been measured at 4.01 m/s. When the initial distance between the induction coil and the vibrating component is increased to 10 mm, the critical wind speed reaches its minimum value of 2.23 m/s. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the arrangement of the coils. The coils of the MEGEH should be arranged with the MC and a 10 mm offset from the center.

Governance and the Manufacturing Sector Growth among the BRICS Nations

The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between selected governance factors and growth rates in the manufacturing sector's output among the member states of BRICS. This study examined the institutionalized growth theory and explored four governance factors: government effectiveness, regulatory quality, control of corruption, and voice and accountability. The study also considered factors associated with both exogenous and endogenous growth theories. The estimation process involves applying the first difference generalized method of moments (D-GMM) on a linear dynamic panel model. The data spans from 2010 to 2021. The findings of this study suggest that among the BRICS nations, government effectiveness is the most significant predictor of growth in the manufacturing sector, out of the four governance factors that were examined. The factors of voice and accountability, control of corruption, and regulatory quality did not demonstrate the capacity to exert influence on variations in the growth of the manufacturing sector within the BRICS countries. Unlike prior studies, our research incorporates a range of established growth theories in constructing the empirical model. Additionally, we employ an instrumental variable approach for dynamic panel data analysis. We utilize robust standard errors to address potential issues of endogeneity and model misspecification. Therefore, BRICS countries should devote a sizeable portion of their resources to building solid mechanisms that make it easier for the implementation, oversight, and thorough reporting of government activities inside their manufacturing sector. This strategy could increase governmental effectiveness, which would encourage overall manufacturing sector growth.

Beyond state and market: the role of labor regimes and class dynamics in the East Asian miracle

While conventional wisdom focuses on the roles of the state and the market in achieving high growth in East Asian countries, this paper offers an account focused on class dynamics. First, the paper connects post-World War II class dynamics in Japan and South Korea to the distributional outcome, i.e., the gap between labor productivity growth and real wage growth. Statistical evidence and econometric tests suggest a positive relationship between a balance of power in favor of workers and a higher growth rate in output. Secondly, the paper puts forward a labor regime framework for explaining the connection between the class dynamics and the distributional outcome, and finds it to have played a central role by using historical data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. We further analyze China’s economic growth and conclude by stressing the importance of class dynamics for better understanding growth and distribution in capitalist development.

Gender equality, economic growth, and poverty in Côte d’Ivoire: A quantitative analysis

In this paper, we develop a three-period gender-based Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of economic growth for Côte d’Ivoire in which life expectancy is endogenized and the rate of change of the poverty rate is linked to the growth rate of output per capita. We then calibrate the model using the country-specific calibration data to illustrate the role of public policies in the model, and its implications for long-term growth, gender equality, and poverty in Côte d’Ivoire. To this end, we discuss three sets of quantitative experiments: broad-based development policies (increase in education spending and infrastructure investment, and governance reform), gender-based policies (reduction in gender bias in the market place, increase in women’s bargaining power, and reduction in family bias against girls’ education), and a composite reform program (combination of pro-growth, pro-gender policies). Overall, our findings suggest that Côte d’Ivoire could achieve better growth and poverty outcomes if the country could implement a composite reform program that includes comprehensive development and gender-based policies.

Life expectancy, fertility, and retirement in an endogenous-growth model with human capital accumulation

This paper analyzes how the improvement in life expectancy affects fertility, educational investments, retirement, and economic growth based on an overlapping-generations model with human capital accumulation. We show that if the labor productivity of the old is greater (lower) than a critical value, then higher life expectancy will raise (reduce) fertility. Moreover, agents will postpone retirement as life expectancy increases if the labor productivity of the old is near the critical value. However, life expectancy changes do not affect output per capita's growth rate. A decrease in the income tax rate does not affect fertility, but causes agents to postpone retirement while simultaneously raising the growth rate of output per capita. The empirical analysis finds that life expectancy has an overall negative effect on fertility, and this negative effect diminishes as life expectancy (a proxy for labor productivity of the old) rises. Moreover, life expectancy does not significantly influence growth for countries with high life expectancy or middle or high income.

Impact of technical efficiency and input-driven growth in the Indian food processing sector

PurposeThis study examines the performance of India's food processing sector by estimating its output growth, technical efficiency (TE) and input-driven growth (IDG)Design/methodology/approachThis study used panel data from six food processing manufacturing industries for the period 2000–01 to 2017–18. Technical efficiency and input-driven growth was measured using the parametric half-normal stochastic frontier production function.FindingsThe findings of this study showed that the estimated average technical efficiency is 86.6%, which specifies that the Indian food processing sector is technically inefficient. In addition, the output growth rate is 5.5%, driven by high doses of inputs (5.7%), whereas there is no indication of constant returns to scale. However, the food processing sector has experienced more input-driven expansion than either technological or efficiency changes.Research limitations/implicationsThis study is limited to India's organized manufacturing food processing sector; the aggregate macro data at a three-digit level based on the national industrial classification (NIC) was used. This study provides robust estimates for industrialists and processors, as well as concrete policy formulations on how overdoses of inputs may lead to high exploitation of resources, whereas outputs can be augmented by implementing upgraded and new technologies.Originality/valuePrevious research has estimated the total factor productivity and technical efficiency only in order to analyze the food sector's performance, but none of the studies have evaluated the share of inputs in growth performance and efficiency. Therefore, this study contributes by measuring growth performance and the share of inputs in the growth performance of India's food processing sector.

Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost

Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the “six pack” rules applied. We find debt ratio outturns exceeding projected values with forecast errors increasing over a four-year horizon. Larger errors arise where the initial debt ratio exceeds the Maastricht Treaty threshold of 60 per cent. In modelling the forecast errors of the debt ratio, we find that most of the variation is explained by forecast errors in the output growth rate and in the structural budget balance, as well as previous errors in projecting the debt ratio. During the sample period, member states who had not met their medium-term objective of a balanced structural budget were expected to adhere to a net expenditure rule. For countries subject to this requirement, we find undue optimism arising in forecasting the deficit ratio, a determinant of the debt ratio. The implications of these findings for EU policymakers and, in particular, forecasters are considered.

Application of water resource economic management model in agricultural structure adjustment

Abstract Taking the watershed of Nanchang city as an example, through extensive investigations, the socio-economic status, water environment status, and development status of the agricultural industry in the watershed of Nanchang city were evaluated, and the coupling relationship between industrial structure and water environment was analyzed. The dynamic simulation of agricultural industrial structure adjustment in the Nanchang city basin under the constraints of the water environment was carried out to provide scientific decision-making on water resource shortage and other issues in the Nanchang city basin and to effectively solve the problem of water resource shortage. The research results showed that under the constraints of Scheme 2, the growth rate of agricultural output was in a relatively good development process, which was 8.56% in the short term, 6.65% in the medium term, and 10.33% in the long term. It is necessary to conduct research on the agricultural industrial structure in Nanchang city, which is also conducive to the protection of the water environment.

Factor Accumulation, Total Factor Productivity, Random Shocks and Output Growth in Cameroon

The main focus of this paper is to examine the proper channels through which the Cameroon economy can achieve a high output (GDP) growth rate and sustain it over time in order to accelerate her pace of economic recovery. Specifically, the paper attempts to understand the role of the various determinants of GDP and to investigate the role of random shocks (RNDSH) in GDP growth in the Cameroon economy from 1970 to 2015. A maximum likelihood technique (MLT) is used to estimate a trans log stochastic frontier production function in a one stage estimation procedure. The results reveal that GDP growth in the Cameroon economy is promoted by labour and capital, which jointly contribute 68% (47% for labour and roughly 22% for capital) against -22% for total factor productivity (TFP). The results also show that RNDSH impedes the GDP growth of the country at an annual average rate of 9.1% throughout the study period. These results imply that the Cameroon economy needs to focus on labour intensive techniques of production so as to propel GDP growth. This study recommends that more efforts should be invested in human capital development, reduction of inefficiency in production processes, and design of proper mechanisms to minimise the effects of Random shocks in the economy.

Threshold Effect of Remittance Inflows on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria

The study examines the threshold effect of remittance inflows and also investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. The study selected two macroeconomic variables—output growth and inflation rate. This was done to evaluate the proposition that an economy can experience both the positive and negative effect of remittance inflows over time. The study employs the use of annual secondary data spanning from 1986 to 2019 on variables of interest. Analysis was done using the threshold regression technique, vector error correction and Granger causality. A single threshold value was obtained for both inflation and output models, which led to splitting the models into two separate regimes. The study discovered that remittance inflows in Nigeria are large enough to significantly influence key macroeconomic variables and that private consumption, money supply and interest rate are the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic variables. The study, therefore, concludes that the best way to maximise remittance inflows within the Nigerian economy is to effectively engage inflows in productive investments.