Rate Of Ice Loss Research Articles

Spatiotemporal supraglacial pond and ice cliff changes in the Bhutan–Tibet border region from 2016 to 2018

AbstractSupraglacial ponds and ice cliffs can dramatically enhance ablation rates on debris-covered glaciers. Supraglacial ponds can also coalesce, forming moraine-dammed lakes at risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Given Bhutanese glaciers have some of the highest ice loss rates in the Himalaya and GLOF vulnerability is high, we seek to advance our understanding of the spatial distribution and evolution of supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs. Here, we use high-resolution (3 m) Planet Labs satellite imagery to provide the first short-term, high-resolution dataset of supraglacial pond and ice cliff evolution for three glaciers along the Bhutan–Tibet border from 2016 to 2018. A total of 5754 ponds and 2088 ice cliffs were identified. Large intra-annual changes were observed, with ponded area changes and drainage events coinciding with the seasonality of the Indian Summer Monsoon. On average, ~19% of the total number of ponds had a coincident ice cliff. Pond spatial distribution was driven by ice-surface velocities, with higher numbers of ponds found in areas of low velocity (<8 m a−1). Our study provides the first detailed, quantitative investigation of supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs in Bhutan, providing a framework for further monitoring in this understudied, yet important, region of the Himalaya.

Acceleration of western Arctic sea ice loss linked to the Pacific North American pattern

Recent rapid Arctic sea-ice reduction has been well documented in observations, reconstructions and model simulations. However, the rate of sea ice loss is highly variable in both time and space. The western Arctic has seen the fastest sea-ice decline, with substantial interannual and decadal variability, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. Here we demonstrate, through both observations and model simulations, that the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern is an important driver of western Arctic sea-ice variability, accounting for more than 25% of the interannual variance. Our results suggest that the recent persistent positive PNA pattern has led to increased heat and moisture fluxes from local processes and from advection of North Pacific airmasses into the western Arctic. These changes have increased lower-tropospheric temperature, humidity and downwelling longwave radiation in the western Arctic, accelerating sea-ice decline. Our results indicate that the PNA pattern is important for projections of Arctic climate changes, and that greenhouse warming and the resultant persistent positive PNA trend is likely to increase Arctic sea-ice loss.

Ocean‐Driven and Topography‐Controlled Nonlinear Glacier Retreat During the Holocene: Southwestern Ross Sea, Antarctica

AbstractRecent ice sheet mass loss in Antarctica has been attributed to an influx of warm ocean waters, which drove grounding‐line retreat and ice thinning. Episodic retreat and rapid thinning also occurred in the southwestern Ross Sea during the Holocene, which today accommodates cold ocean waters. We applied finite element ice‐flow modeling to investigate the roles of ocean temperature and bed topography in the deglaciation of this region. First, our experiments demonstrate that bed topography controlled the spatial pattern of grounding‐line retreat. Topographic pinning points limited the rate of ice loss until retreat progressed beyond a bathymetric threshold. Second, ocean thermal forcing determined the timing of this ice loss. Enhanced ocean‐driven melt is required during the Early‐to‐Mid Holocene to replicate geological records of deglaciation, possibly indicating that warm ocean waters were once present in this region. On multi‐centennial timescales, ocean temperature drove, while bed topography controlled, nonlinear rates of ice mass loss.

Review article: Earth's ice imbalance

Abstract. We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.

SERMeQ Model Produces a Realistic Upper Bound on Calving Retreat for 155 Greenland Outlet Glaciers

AbstractThe rate of land ice loss due to iceberg calving is a key source of variability among model projections of the 21st century sea level rise. It is especially challenging to account for mass loss due to iceberg calving in Greenland, where ice drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many smaller than typical model grid scale. Here, we apply a numerically efficient network flowline model (SERMeQ) forced by surface mass balance to simulate an upper bound on decadal calving retreat of 155 grounded outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet—resolving five times as many outlets as was previously possible. We show that the upper bound holds for 91% of glaciers examined and that simulated changes in terminus position correlate with observed changes. SERMeQ can provide a physically consistent constraint on forward projections of the dynamic mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet associated with different climate projections.

A Synthesis of Observations and Models to Assess the Time Series of Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Beaufort Sea

AbstractOver the past four decades, there has been a substantial thinning of the summer sea ice cover in the Beaufort Sea. Variations in sea ice mass balance reflect these changes and give insight to the environmental forcings which caused them. In this work, the time series results from eight Lagrangian mass balance sites that operated in the Beaufort Sea over the years 1997–2015 are analyzed. Direct measurements from the sites are combined with estimates of ice/ocean heat input to examine the roll of solar heating on ice loss, growth, and melt rates. Comparisons between ice and snow conditions and mass balance event timing, for example, surface and bottom melt onset, melt peak, and melt end, are also made. From the late 1990s to the present, a general increase in bottom melting and solar heat input to the upper ocean was observed. All sites showed a net loss of ice (ranging from 29 to 271 cm), and all but one site saw the majority of this loss from bottom melting. Bottom melt onset occurred within a relatively narrow 13‐day window between 1 and 13 June at all sites. The amount of observed bottom melt was also related to the heat deposited in the ocean available for melting, underscoring the increasingly important role of ocean thermodynamics in determining sea ice mass balance.

Ice thickness and volume changes across the Southern Alps, New Zealand, from the little ice age to present

Rapid changes observed today in mountain glaciers need to be put into a longer-term context to understand global sea-level contributions, regional climate-glacier systems and local landscape evolution. In this study we determined volume changes for 400 mountain glaciers across the Southern Alps, New Zealand for three time periods; pre-industrial “Little Ice Age (LIA)” to 1978, 1978 to 2009 and 2009 to 2019. At least 60 km3 ± 12 km3 or between 41 and 62% of the LIA total ice volume has been lost. The rate of mass loss has nearly doubled from − 0.4 m w.e year−1 during 1,600 to 1978 to − 0.7 m w.e year−1 at present. In comparison Patagonia has lost just 11% of it’s LIA volume. Glacier ice in the Southern Alps has become restricted to higher elevations and to large debris-covered ablation tongues terminating in lakes. The accelerating rate of ice loss reflects regional-specific climate conditions and suggests that peak glacial meltwater production is imminent if not already passed, which has profound implications for water resources and riverine habitats.

Extending the record of Antarctic ice shelf thickness change, from 1992 to 2017

Over the past two decades, Antarctic ice shelves have retreated, thinned and suffered catastrophic collapse. In this study we extended the 25-year long record of ice shelf thickness change in Antarctica, from 2010 to 2017. In the Amundsen Sea Sector where widespread ice shelf thinning dominates the signal, a 51% slowdown in the rate of ice loss over the last 7-years can be attributed to a coincident decrease in ocean temperatures in the region since 2010. Overall, ice shelves in Antarctica have thickened by an average of 1.3 m between 2010 and 2017 as ice losses from West Antarctica are compensated by ice gains in East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, reversing the negative trend of the previous two decades. The detailed spatial pattern of ice shelf thickness change across Antarctica, demonstrates the need for future investment in high spatial resolution observations and techniques.

Cold-based glaciation of Pavonis Mons, Mars: evidence for moraine deposition during glacial advance

The three large volcanoes in the Tharsis region of Mars: Arsia, Pavonis, and Ascraeus Montes all have fan-shaped deposits (FSDs) on their northern or western flanks consisting of a combination of parallel ridges, knobby/hummocky terrain, and a smooth, viscous flow-like unit. The FSDs are hypothesized to have formed in the Amazonian during a period of high spin-axis obliquity which redistributed polar ice to the equatorial Tharsis region resulting in thick (> 2 km), flowing ice deposits. Based on previous ice flow simulations and crater surveys, the ridges are interpreted to be recessional drop moraines formed as debris on the ice sheet surface was transported to the ice margin—forming a long ridge sequence over an extended (∼100 Myr) period of ice sheet retreat. We test this hypothesis using a high-resolution, thermomechanical ice sheet model assuming a lower ice loss rate (~ 0.5 mm/year) than prior work based on new experimental results of ice sublimation below a protective debris layer. Our ice flow simulation results, when combined with topographic observations from a long sequence of ridges located interior of the Pavonis FSD, show that the ridged units were more likely deposited during one or more periods of glacial advance (instead of retreat) when repetitive pulses (approx. 120 kyr periodicity) of ice accumulation during high obliquity produced kinematic waves which advected a large volume of surface debris to the ice margin. If ridge deposition does occur during glacial advance, it could explain the cyclic pattern of ridge spacing and would link the dominant, 120 kyr periodicity in obliquity to the time interval between adjacent ridges. By measuring the spacing between these ridges and applying this timescale, we constrain the velocity of glacial margin to be between 0.2 and 4 cm/Earth year—in close agreement with the numerical simulation. This re-interpretation of the FSD ridged unit suggests that the timescale of FSD formation (and perhaps the duration of the Amazonian high obliquity period) was shorter than previously reported.

Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4-6 and surface melting7-9 have been driven by oceanic10-12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet's mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet's volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345±66billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902±342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8±0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964±565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938±541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46±37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87±25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222±30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

Disappearance of the last tropical glaciers in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (Papua, Indonesia) appears imminent

The glaciers near Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, the highest peak between the Himalayas and the Andes, are the last remaining tropical glaciers in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Here, we report the recent, rapid retreat of the glaciers near Puncak Jaya by quantifying the loss of ice coverage and reduction of ice thickness over the last 8 y. Photographs and measurements of a 30-m accumulation stake anchored to bedrock on the summit of one of these glaciers document a rapid pace in the loss of ice cover and a ∼5.4-fold increase in the thinning rate, which was augmented by the strong 2015-2016 El Niño. At the current rate of ice loss, these glaciers will likely disappear within the next decade. To further understand the mechanisms driving the observed retreat of these glaciers, 2 ∼32-m-long ice cores to bedrock recovered in mid-2010 are used to reconstruct the tropical Pacific climate variability over approximately the past half-century on a quasi-interannual timescale. The ice core oxygen isotopic ratios show a significant positive linear trend since 1964 CE (0.018 ± 0.008‰ per year; P < 0.03) and also suggest that the glaciers' retreat is augmented by El Niño-Southern Oscillation processes, such as convection and warming of the atmosphere and sea surface. These Papua glaciers provide the only tropical records of ice core-derived climate variability for the WPWP.

Consistent fluctuations in intermediate water temperature off the coast of Greenland and Norway during Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Rapid warmings epitomize the Dansgaard-Oeschger events that are recorded in Greenland ice cores and imprinted in ocean sediment cores. While the abrupt climate changes appear connected to perturbations in sea ice and ocean circulation, it is unclear how the water masses within the Nordic Seas responded and were influenced by the inflowing Atlantic Water in the absence or presence of sea ice. High resolution reconstructions of benthic Mg/Ca, together with stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen (δ13C and δ18O), show a recurring warming (2.5° ± 0.5 °C) occurring consistently at the inflow and outflow of the Nordic Seas at intermediate depths down to 1500 m during Greenland Stadials 9–6. Using idealized numerical simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean model we investigate the impact of an isolating sea ice cover and freshwater lid in the Nordic Seas. With the presence of an extensive sea ice cover, the warm Atlantic Water entering the Nordic Seas in the east, retains its heat as it exits in the west. The depth of the recirculating warm Atlantic Water increases when including an external freshwater source at the surface of the Nordic Seas. These findings support the view that cold stadials are accompanied by pervasive intermediate water warming across the Nordic Seas. Given the current rates of Arctic sea ice loss, these results provide a potential mechanism for water-column destabilization and inception of abrupt climate change.

Trends in Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass

Fluctuations in Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation and mass occur over a variety of time scales, owing to changes in snowfall and ice flow. Here we disentangle these signals by combining 25 years of satellite radar altimeter observations and a regional climate model. From these measurements, patterns of change that are strongly associated with glaciological events emerge. While the majority of the ice sheet has remained stable, 24% of West Antarctica is now in a state of dynamical imbalance. Thinning of the Pine Island and Thwaites glacier basins reaches 122 m in places, and their rates of ice loss are now five times greater than at the start of our survey. By partitioning elevation changes into areas of snow and ice variability, we estimate that East and West Antarctica have contributed −1.1 ± 0.4 and +5.7 ± 0.8 mm to global sea level between 1992 and 2017.

The Importance of Icelandic Ice Sheet Growth and Retreat on Mantle CO2 Flux

AbstractClimate cycles may significantly affect the eruptive behavior of terrestrial volcanoes due to pressure changes caused by glacial loading, which raises the possibility that climate change may modulate CO2 degassing via volcanism. In Iceland, magmatism is likely to have been influenced by glacial activity. To explore if deglaciation therefore impacted CO2 flux, we coupled a model of glacial loading over the last ∼120 ka to melt generation and transport. We find that a nuanced relationship exists between magmatism and glacial activity. Enhanced CO2 degassing happened prior to the main phase of late‐Pleistocene deglaciation, and it is sensitive to the duration of the growth of the ice sheet entering into the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), as well as the rate of ice loss. Ice sheet growth depresses melting in the upper mantle, creating a delayed pulse of CO2 out‐gassing, as the magmatic system recovers from the effects of loading.

Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the past 40 years.

Himalayan glaciers supply meltwater to densely populated catchments in South Asia, and regional observations of glacier change over multiple decades are needed to understand climate drivers and assess resulting impacts on glacier-fed rivers. Here, we quantify changes in ice thickness during the intervals 1975-2000 and 2000-2016 across the Himalayas, using a set of digital elevation models derived from cold war-era spy satellite film and modern stereo satellite imagery. We observe consistent ice loss along the entire 2000-km transect for both intervals and find a doubling of the average loss rate during 2000-2016 [-0.43 ± 0.14 m w.e. year-1 (meters of water equivalent per year)] compared to 1975-2000 (-0.22 ± 0.13 m w.e. year-1). The similar magnitude and acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas suggests a regionally coherent climate forcing, consistent with atmospheric warming and associated energy fluxes as the dominant drivers of glacier change.

Does Global Warming Drive Changes in Arctic Sea Ice?

Satellite radiometry and visual imagery of Arctic sea ice since 1979 have allowed us to track its dramatic seasonal cycle in which 70% of the March maximum sea ice area is gone by September. This extreme seasonal cycle is taken to imply that Arctic sea ice area is sensitive to ambient temperature. The satellite data also show a long term year to year decline in Arctic sea ice in every season concurrent with global warming. This concurrence has led to the assumption that the observed long term decline in sea ice is a response to global warming. This study is a test of that hypothesis. Arctic sea ice data for each calendar month are tested for the responsiveness of sea ice area to global warming at annual and five-year time scales using detrended correlation analysis. Satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature over the north polar region are used as the relevant measure of global warming. It is found that of the twelve calendar months only two contain both statistically significant sea ice loss and statistically significant correlation of the rate of sea ice loss with global warming. These results do not constitute convincing evidence of correlation required to support the assumption that sea ice decline is driven by global warming. It is likely that the observed loss in sea ice area is a more complex phenomenon possibly with roles for winds, ocean currents, geothermal heat, and natural multidecadal variability of ocean characteristics not measured and not fully understood. Global warming may play a role in what may be a complex multivariate phenomenon but the data do not show that global warming drives year to year changes in Arctic sea ice area or that the decline can be halted or moderated by taking climate action.

Long-term and inter-annual mass changes of Patagonia Ice Field from GRACE

Using more than 14 years of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite gravimetry observations, we estimate the ice loss rate for the Patagonia Ice Field (PIF) of South America. After correcting the effects of glacier isostatic adjustment (GIA) and hydrological variations, the ice loss rate is −23.5 ± 8.1 Giga ton per year (Gt/yr) during the period April 2002 through December 2016, equivalent to an average ice thickness change of −1.3 m/yr if evenly distributed over PIF. The PIF ice mass change series also show obvious inter-annual variations during the entire period. For the time spans April 2002 to December 2007, January 2008 to December 2012 and January 2013 to December 2016, the ice loss rates are −26.4, −9.0 and −25.0 Gt/yr, respectively, indicating that the ice melting experienced significant slowing down and accelerating again in the past decade. Comparison with time series from temperature and precipitation data over PIF suggests that the inter-annual ice losses might not be directly correlated with the temperature changes and precipitation anomalies, and thus their interrelation is intricate. However, the dramatic ice loss acceleration in 2016 (with more than 100 Gt within the first half of the year) appears closely related with the evident temperature increase and severe precipitation shortage over 2016, which are likely correlated with the strong El Niño event around 2016. Moreover, we compare the GRACE spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (Mascon) solutions in estimating the PIF ice loss rate, and find that the Mascon result has larger uncertainty in leakage error correction, while the SH solutions can better correct leakage errors based on a constrained forward modeling iterative method. Thus the GRACE SH solutions with constrained forward modeling recovery are recommended to evaluating the ice mass change of PIF or other glacier regions with relatively smaller spatial scales.

Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992-2017 (5±46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

Abstract. The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020–2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5–10 % per decade (or 15–30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

Isolating the Liquid Cloud Response to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Observations

AbstractWhile the radiative influence of clouds on Arctic sea ice is known, the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic clouds is challenging to detect, separate from atmospheric circulation, and attribute to human activities. Providing observational constraints on the two‐way relationship between sea ice cover and Arctic clouds is important for predicting the rate of future sea ice loss. Here we use 8 years of CALIPSO (Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spaceborne lidar observations from 2008 to 2015 to analyze Arctic cloud profiles over sea ice and over open water. Using a novel surface mask to restrict our analysis to where sea ice concentration varies, we isolate the influence of sea ice cover on Arctic Ocean clouds. The study focuses on clouds containing liquid water because liquid‐containing clouds are the most important cloud type for radiative fluxes and therefore for sea ice melt and growth. Summer is the only season with no observed cloud response to sea ice cover variability: liquid cloud profiles are nearly identical over sea ice and over open water. These results suggest that shortwave summer cloud feedbacks do not slow long‐term summer sea ice loss. In contrast, more liquid clouds are observed over open water than over sea ice in the winter, spring, and fall in the 8 year mean and in each individual year. Observed fall sea ice loss cannot be explained by natural variability alone, which suggests that observed increases in fall Arctic cloud cover over newly open water are linked to human activities.