Gross Domestic Product Rate Research Articles

ВПЛИВ ДЕМОГРАФІЧНОГО ФАКТОРУ НА СОЦІАЛЬНО–ЕКОНОМІЧНУ СТАБІЛЬНІСТЬ КИТАЮ

This research analyzes the demographic situation in China and its impact on socio-economic stability. Stable and balanced demographic reproduction is an important condition for the development of any economy, state and society. The implementation of effective social policy in China requires constant monitoring of the living standards of various social groups. Usually, in periods of deep and prolonged economic downturns, fiscal crisis, the state is forced to cut social spending, reduce the package of social services. Public services must justify budget expenditures in terms of costs and benefits. It is important that the monitoring and evaluation of budget expenditures is carried out efficiently and with minimal financial costs, so that the groups of the population who need it most can be identified. Scientific analysis of the Human Development Index and Population Reference Bureau data from 1950 to 2100 in China, Austria, Switzerland, the United States and the Netherlands shows a direct proportional economic dependence: the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) directly depends on the growth rate population and GDP growth per capita. Using the statistics recorded in the Seventh National Census of China, it is possible to trace the relationship between the level of socio-economic development of the country and its demographic situation. The author identifies 5 models of gender and age structure of the population: triangle, umbrella, helmet, spinning top, hat. Until 1979, China had an umbrella model with a high level of population growth. After the “one family – one child” policy, the situation has changed. The current demographic situation is reminiscent of the helmet model, the main characteristics of which show a decrease in the birth rate, a decrease in the working age population and an increase in the share of older people, which leads to excessive overload of the country's pension system. This pattern is described by the formula 4: 2: 1, which characterizes the situation when the Chinese government must, on the one hand, stimulate population growth, and on the other hand, be aimed at meeting the needs of older people and creating conditions for a new system of economic relations "longevity economy" or "silver economy".

An Assessment of the Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Toda-Yamamoto Approach

This study interrogated the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1981 to 2020. The paper used the growth rate of gross domestic product (GRGDP) as the endogenous variable, while, broad money supply (MS2), monetary policy rate (MPR), Inflation (INFL), liquidity ratio (LDQR) and exchange rate (EXCH) were the exogenous variables and proxies for monetary policy. Data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin of various years and World Bank National Account Data. The study used descriptive statistics, performed a unit root test using Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test, and to test for causality, Toda Yamamoto was deployed. Finally, the Toda Yamamoto Causality test revealed that all the exogenous variables had bi-directional causality with economic growth except for the exchange rate that had uni-directional causality with economic growth. In the light of the findings, the study recommends that Broad Money Supply (MS2) should be adequately managed and manipulated to achieve the needy growth, in line with pursued monetary policy stance of the monetary authority. Also, the monetary authority and the government should vigorously pursue policies that would increase financial inclusion in Nigeria as it would enhance the effectiveness of the monetary policy.

СОЦИАЛЬНЫЕ ФИНАНСОВЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ РАЗВИТИЯ АО "ЭЛЬКОНСКИЙ ГОРНО-МЕТАЛЛУРГИЧЕСКИЙ КОМБИНАТ"

The proposed social financial technologies for the development of the Elkon Mining and Metallurgical Combine, harmoniously combining the interests of working citizens, owners and the state, make it possible, at quite achievable growth rates of gross domestic product (revenue of enterprises) by 3% per year, to ensure the growth of wages of workers to double the deductions in the development fund for 5 years by 1.96 times, in which, first of all, the owners of enterprises and the entire workforce are interested, since this ensures the growth of their income and the possibility of constant modernization and renewal of technological equipment and the release of new competitive products. To increase contributions to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation and FFOMS and income tax, income tax and VAT over 5 years by 20%, and over 10 years by 68%, which will allow the territorial authorities to solve many social problems.

The Effect of Oil Prices on Azerbaijan’s Economy (2009–2018)

Since oil plays an important role in the economy of Azerbaijan, the events in the global oil market deeply affect the national economy. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the economy of Azerbaijan, in which oil and gas have a significant place. In April 2020, the price of one barrel of oil on the world market fell to $1. One reason for this was the decrease in oil demand due to the lockdown re-gime implemented by many countries due to the rapid outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and another reason was that the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) countries could not agree on reducing oil production. The aim of this research is to show the impacts of oil prices on gross domestic product (GDP) of Azerbaijan, the growth rate of GDP, and the amount of oil production in Azerbaijan in 2009-2018. The hypothesis of the research is that oil prices seriously influence the economy of Azerbaijan and there is a correlation between the growth rate of Azerbaijan’s gross domestic product and the oil prices. The study starts with a brief description of the history of Azerbaijan’s oil industry, followed by oil industry’s importance in the economy of Azerbaijan, the role in foreign economic relations, and the effects on the economy of country. The quantitative method was used as a key research method. The data used in the analysis of this study were collected according to the literature scanning method, which is one of the data collection techniques. Further, descriptive statistics technique, which is a quantitative data analysis technique, was used to analyse the data. The findings show that the changes in oil prices in 2009-2018 directly affect the Azerbaijan’s gross domestic product, the growth rate of GDP, and the amount of oil production in Azerbaijan. Thus, as oil prices increase, the growth rate of the country’s gross domestic product and GDP increase and decrease as oil prices decrease.

THE EVOLUTION OF FISCAL PRESSURE IN DEVELOPED E.U. COUNTRIES AND ITS DETERMINANTS

Since 1970, the intensity of implementing budgetary policies in the two categories of states, developed states, and emerging states, has been observed in Europe. These policies had the effect of increasing the levels of taxation, also called progressive taxation, at that time. To stop this phenomenon of progressive taxation, the Maastricht Treaty and then the Stability and Growth Pact have had the effect of forcing states to adopt different fiscal policies to reduce the feeling of fiscal pressure made necessary by budgetary deficiencies and public debt accumulated over time. In fact, since the 1990s, each Member State of the European Union has interpreted the treaties mentioned above separately; some states reduced spending, while others preferred to impose more significant fiscal pressure on citizens by raising taxes and fees. In our article, we analyze and disseminate the general fiscal pressure of some developed countries in the European Union. We identify the economic priority indicators that influence the phenomenon of fiscal pressure, such as the level of direct taxes, indirect taxes, the growth rate of gross domestic product, and the level of public debt, providing an overview of economic development over the last three decades.To this end, the authors have developed an econometric model that captures the factors that influence the fiscal pressure in several developed countries of the European Union in the period 1995-2018.

Determinants and Cross-National Moderators of Wearable Health Tracker Adoption: A Meta-Analysis

Wearable health trackers improve people’s health management and thus are beneficial for social sustainability. Many prior studies have contributed to the knowledge on the determinants of wearable health tracker adoption. However, these studies vary remarkably in focal determinants and countries of data collection, leading to a call for a structured and quantitative review on what determinants are generally important, and whether and how their effects on adoption vary across countries. Therefore, this study performed the first meta-analysis on the determinants and cross-national moderators of wearable health tracker adoption. This meta-analysis accumulated 319 correlations between nine determinants and adoption from 59 prior studies in 18 countries/areas. The meta-analytic average effects of the determinants revealed the generalized effect and the relative importance of each determinant. For example, technological characteristics generally had stronger positive correlations with adoption than consumer characteristics, except for privacy risk. Second, drawing on institutional theory, it was observed that cross-national characteristics regarding socioeconomic status, regulative systems, and cultures could moderate the effects of the determinants on adoption. For instance, the growth rate of gross domestic product decreased the effect of innovativeness on adoption, while regulatory quality and control of corruption could increase this effect.

Macroeconomic Indicators and Sukuk Market Performance in Selected OIC Economies

. Sukuk plays a critical role in developing Islamic finance globally. Therefore, it is important to identify macroeconomic determinants that drive the sukuk market. The study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sukuk market performance for the period 2004 until 2019 in 10 sukuk issuing countries using a panel data approach. The macroeconomic indicators are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumer price index, trade openness, exchange rates, and financial crisis. The findings reveal that GDP, trade openness, and exchange rates have a significant impact on sukuk market performance. In addition, the study analyses the growth components of GDP in these countries five years before the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. The countries' performance in terms of changes in percentage contribution of consumption, investment, government spending, and net export, towards GDP growth, is measured. The findings indicate that the consumption component contributes the most to economic stability. Therefore, the authorities can implement policies that would support productive consumption and design trade policies that will enhance sukuk market performance.

INCREASING THE EFFICIENCY OF MANAGING ITS OWN CAPITAL ENTERPRISE

The creation and normal functioning of enterprises of any form of ownership is impossible without the formation of sufficient volume of equity. Equity is one of the main indicators during the assessment of creditworthiness, as well as the level of financial security of the enterprise. Factors of internal and external environment are affected by its capital management. The factors of the internal environment reflect the impact of the financial condition and financial results of economic activity on the effectiveness of managing its own capital of the enterprise, they include: payables and receivables; revenue from sales of products; profit; fixed assets and current liabilities. Factors of the external environment, which are determined by the influence of the environment on the efficiency of managing its own capital of the enterprise and characterize the conditions in which the enterprise operates, in particular: inflation rate (consumer price index); Level of registered unemployment; the growth rate of gross domestic product of Ukraine; the growth rate of gross domestic product of Ukraine; The magnitude of the main means of Ukraine. To increase the efficiency of managing its own capital, the enterprise proposes a methodical approach that differs from the existing use of two groups of indicators: absolute and relative. This will contribute to a more in-depth assessment of the influence of internal and external environments on the efficiency of managing its own capital of the enterprise, and will allow adapting the enterprise to crisis situations. The management of own capital is the main component of the financial support of the enterprise. Sustainable financial condition, effective management of its own capital positively affects the implementation of production plans and ensuring the needs of production with the necessary resources (financial, material, labor, informational).

Drivers' Intentions to Use Different Functionalities of Conditionally Automated Cars: A Survey Study of 18,631 Drivers from 17 Countries.

A number of studies have investigated the acceptance of conditionally automated cars (CACs). However, in the future, CACs will comprise of several separate Automated Driving Functions (ADFs), which will allow the vehicle to operate in different Operational Design Domains (ODDs). Driving in different environments places differing demands on drivers. Yet, little research has focused on drivers’ intention to use different functions, and how this may vary by their age, gender, country of residence, and previous experience with Advanced Driving Assistance Systems (ADAS). Data from an online survey of 18,631 car drivers from 17 countries (8 European) was used in this study to investigate intention to use an ADF in one of four different ODDs: Motorways, Traffic Jams, Urban Roads, and Parking. Intention to use was high across all ADFs, but significantly higher for Parking than all others. Overall, intention to use was highest amongst respondents who were younger (<39), male, and had previous experience with ADAS. However, these trends varied widely across countries, and for the different ADFs. Respondents from countries with the lowest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and highest road death rates had the highest intention to use all ADFs, while the opposite was found for countries with high GDP and low road death rates. These results suggest that development and deployment strategies for CACs may need to be tailored to different markets, to ensure uptake and safe use.

IS THE REPORTS-BASED MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM A NEW PANEL RESIDUAL AUGMENTED LEAST SQUARES UNIT ROOT TEST

To avoid spurious inferences, researchers analyzing the dimensions of uncertainty need to determine whether it is nonstationary. The degree of persistence of uncertainty also indicates the duration of the negative impact of an uncertainty shock on the economy. We use a new panel residual augmented least squares unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both intercepts and slopes of a series to determine the degree of persistence of the reports-based measure of uncertainty and whether it is nonstationary for 143 countries. This group of countries accounts for 99% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). To assess the robustness of our results, we also use recently developed univariate time-series unit root tests that allow for structural breaks and panel unit root tests that accommodate cross-sectional dependence and nonlinearity. Furthermore, an autoregressive wild bootstrap approach is utilized to examine the stationarity of the series. The results are virtually unambiguous in indicating that the reports-based measure of uncertainty is stationary in all countries considered. The results also suggest that uncertainty has a negative impact on the growth rate of GDP. The policy implications of the results are also discussed.

Economic crisis, epidemiology and resilience in Italian Regions

IntroductionAvoidable Mortality is an indicator of the effectiveness of Health Services. We know that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic indicators are related to health indicators. The aim was to study the impact of economic indicators on Avoidable Mortality, in Italy, with attention to the periods following the economic crisis and COVID-19 epidemic.MethodsGDP, Gini Coefficient (GC) and other economic and epidemiologic data were collected from the beginning of the Century up to the present from the Italian National Institute of Statistics database (ISTAT) and the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS). Mortality data (597 causes coded by ICD-9) was divided in Preventable, Amenable and Avoidable categories. Spearman's rank Correlation Coefficient was carried out with STATA software. The analysis was performed, also using JOINPOINT software, on the entire Italian territory and then specifically on the 20 Regions.ResultsGDP trend showed two decreasing phases occurred between 2008-2009 and 2012-2013. A negative correlation (p.<0.05) has been demonstrated in 7 Regions between GDP values and Avoidable Mortality, 5 Regions for Preventable and Amenable Mortality. GC showed a fluctuating but growing trend without any correlation with all categories of Avoidable Mortality. In 2020, after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (in February 2020 in Italy), GDP and Employment Rate (ER) declined rapidly, but not always homogeneously.ConclusionsThe upward trend of the GC reflects an increase in inequality in the period following the economic crisis. GDP trend reflects the phases of the economic crisis impacting on epidemiological indicators with a latency of about 4 years. The negative correlation between GDP and Avoidable Mortality can not be observed in all Regions. This may be explained by heterogeneous administrative policies and different levels of resilience among Regions: another description of the “european microcosm” represented by Italy.Key messages The impact of the economic crisis on Avoidable Mortality has about 4 years of latency. COVID-19 pandemic has a faster impact on GDP and ER.Italian Regions show different levels of resilience.

Factors of Production Influencing Gross Domestic Product in Nepal

This study has analysed the factors of production, viz; agricultural land, working force and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) of Nepal between 2000/01-2017/18 AD and has determined their effects on national income, viz; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by using Cobb-Douglas regression function. The results showed an average growth rate of GDP, agricultural land, working force and GFCF to be 3.9%, 0.8%, 1.5% and 7.9%, respectively, with the values plummeting in 2015/16, due to occurrence of the devastating earthquake in 2015, but then again variable values skyrocketed following years. The regression analysis found that GDP was affected significantly by agricultural land and working force, but insignificant with GFCF. On an average, with the increase in agricultural land and working force by 1 %, GDP increased by 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively. Thus, policy regarding an increment of agricultural land use and employment of labour force must be framed to improve the Nepalese economy.

Clusters of cause specific neonatal mortality and its association with per capita gross domestic product: A structured spatial analytical approach.

Infant mortality rate is a measure of population health and neonatal mortality account for great proportion of these deaths. Underdevelopment might be associated to higher neonatal mortality risk due to assistant related factors. Spatial and temporal distribution of mortality help identifying and developing strategies for interventions. To investigate the cluster areas of asphyxia-associated neonatal mortality and to explore its association with per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. Ecological study including live births residents in SP from 2004-2013. Neonatal deaths (0-27 days) with perinatal asphyxia were defined as intrauterine hypoxia, birth asphyxia or meconium aspiration syndrome written in any line of the Death Certificate. Geoprocessing analytical approach included detection of first order effects through quintiles and spatial moving average maps, followed by second order effects by global and local spatial autocorrelation (Moran and LISA, respectively) before and after smoothing with local Bayesian estimates. Finally, Spearman correlation was applied between asphyxia-associated neonatal mortality and mean per capita GDP rates for the municipalities with significant LISA. There were 6,713 asphyxia-associated neonatal deaths among 5,949,267 live births (rate: 1.13/1000) in SP. Spatial moving average maps showed a non-random distribution among municipalities, with presence of clusters (I = 0.048; p = 0.023). LISA map identified clusters of asphyxia-associated neonatal mortality in the south, southeast and northwest. After applying local Bayes estimates, clusters were more pronounced (I = 0.589; p = 0.001). There was a partial overlap of the areas of higher asphyxia-associated neonatal mortality and lower mean per capita GDP. Spatial analysis identified cluster areas of high asphyxia-associated neonatal mortality and low per capita GDP rates, with a significant negative correlation. This optimized, structured, and hierarchical approach to identify high-risk areas of cause-specific neonatal mortality may be helpful for guiding public health efforts to decrease neonatal mortality.

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATE, GOVERNMENT EXPENSES, MONEY SUPPLY AND REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH – THE CASE OF NORTH MACEDONIA

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of interest rates, government expenses, money supply and real exchange rates on the economic growth of the Republic of North Macedonia. A country's economic groëth refers to the growth of that country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The interest rate is one of the determining factors of economic groëth. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and other influencing factors, the Republic of North Macedonia in recent years has maintained low inflation rates and interest rates.&#x0D; Empirical analysis of the paper is based on data obtained from the Central Bank of Republic of North Macedonia on a quarterly basis for the period from 2008 to 2020. Through the use of co integration tests (Johanensen test), Granger causality test, autocorrelation test, VAR, ARCH and GARCH process, it is verified that the rate interest rate is a determining variable and has a long-term relationship with economic groëth.&#x0D; The co integration test (Johannesen test) shoës that in all equations the results are statistically significant and the variables have a long-run relationship betëeen them. Then the use of the Granger test of causality notes that money supply causes interest rate changes; they also cause a change in economic groëth.&#x0D; The unit root test is used to determine the level of integration of variables .The use of the Granger causality test then points out that the money supply causes changes on interest rate ; GDP also causes interest rate changes. The interest rate causes the change of economic groëth. Government spending causes the change of economic groëth. The effective exchange rate causes the change of economic growth.&#x0D; Evidence of co integration allowed the application of the VAR model, which enabled the identification of variables that affect economic groëth in the Republic of North Macedonia, both in the short and long term.&#x0D; In the end, all variables are tested together and it turns out that logarithmic GDP and interest rates have an impact on economic growth.&#x0D; The conclusions from the data analysis are that all variables are interrelated and have an impact on economic growth.&#x0D; Also there can be identified and other economic factors that have impact on economic growth that are not included on this paper.

A hybrid approach for examining the drivers of energy consumption in Shanghai

Increasing attentions have been paid to energy consumption problem due to ecology pressure. This has prompted a growing focus of policy design to explore the driving forces of energy consumption. As the biggest city in China, Shanghai ranks the 1st in economic aggregate in mainland China but faces greater energy shortage challenges than the other cities. In this study, we aim to investigate the energy consumption between 1990 and 2019 in Shanghai to facilitate the sustainable development of population, resources, and environment. Specifically, a hybrid approach coupling LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) and Granger causality is adopted to decompose the influential factors of energy consumption and explores their potential relationships. The hybrid approach not only allows us to verify the contributions of energy consumption changes in the past (1990–2019), but also to identify the relationships between energy consumption and the potential factors. It is found that per urban population GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (accounting for 228.16 % contribution degree), infrastructure investment (accounting for 227.18 % contribution degree) and urbanization rate (accounting for 21.61 % contribution degree) are the top three driving forces of energy consumption. The Granger causality test shows that energy consumption has bilateral causality relationship with per urban population GDP, infrastructure investment and urbanization rate, but it has single Granger causality relationships with infrastructure investment population support coefficient and energy intensity in different lag lengths. Interestingly, our results indicate that the energy consumption, per urban population GDP, infrastructure investment and urbanization rate changes are closely related to urban policies or main events. Therefore, policy makers should not only make appropriate policies in infrastructure investment but also pay attention to the balance between energy consumption social-economic effects.

The Adverse Impact of Air Pollution on China’s Economic Growth

This study empirically evaluates the impact of air pollution on China’s economic growth, based on a province-level sample for the period 2002–2017. Air pollution is measured by the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and economic growth is measured by the annual growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. A panel data fixed-effects regression model is built, and the instrumental variables estimation method is utilized for quantitative analyses. The study reports a significant negative impact of air pollution on the macroeconomic growth of China. According to our instrumental variables estimation, holding other factors constant, if the concentration of PM2.5 increases by 1%, then the GDP per capita growth rate will decline by 0.05818 percentage points. In addition, it is found that the adverse effect of atmospheric pollution is heterogeneous across different regions. The effect is stronger in the eastern region and in provinces with smaller state-owned enterprise shares, fewer governmental expenditures for public health services, and fewer medical resources. The study results reveal that air pollution poses a substantial threat to the sustainable economic growth of China. Taking actions to abate air pollution will generate great economic benefits, especially for those regions which are heavily damaged by pollution.

Role of information and communication technology in economic progress and increasing demand for renewable energy: evidence from China and India

ABSTRACT This paper intends to know the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) on the economic progress and renewable energy consumptions in two Asian economic giants namely India and China. To achieve the objectives, generalised method of moments (GMM) and pooled ordinary least square (OLS), fixed effect and random effect models have been applied using yearly panel data of individuals using internet as ICT, growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) as economic progress, electric power consumption as energy consumptions and foreign direct investment (FDI). This study observes significantly positive impact of ICT on renewable energy consumptions while negative and insignificant impact on the economic progress in India and China. It is observed that countries are similar in renewable energy expansion, time spent on internet, electricity generation and policy support for renewable energy generation while they significantly differ in the number of internet subscribers, internet-based entrepreneurships and sources of renewable energy. This study proposes to apply ICT in all possible sectors to boost-up economic growth as well as to enhance the demand for renewable energy consumptions.

Preliminary Assessment of Chinese Strategy in Controlling Reemergent Local Outbreak of COVID-19.

Reemergent local outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in China, yet few Chinese response strategies and its evaluation have been reported. This study presents a preliminary assessment of Chinese strategy in controlling reemergent local outbreaks of COVID-19. Time course of accumulative and daily new cases and time-varying reproductive numbers (Rt) of outbreak areas were presented. The asymptomatic rate, days required to control the outbreaks, seeding time (ST), and doubling time (DT) of areas with over 96 reemergent cases were calculated. National and local year-on-year growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP) were presented. Accumulative numbers of 30, 8, 11, 430, 15, 139, 1,067, 382, 42, and 94 confirmed reemergent COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Hulun Buir, Shanghai, Tianjin, Kashgar, Qingdao, Dalian, Urumchi, Beijing, Jilin, and Harbin, respectively. Among them, maximum rate of asymptomatic infections was 81.9%. Time required to control the local outbreaks in the areas given above varied from 29 to 51 days. After activation of outbreak responses, the late-stage DTs of Kashgar, Urumchi, Beijing, and Dalian were apparently lengthened compared to the early-stage DTs. Although the year-on-year GDP growth rate of Urumchi was slightly affected, the GDP growth rate of Dalian, Beijing, Jilin, and Harbin kept rising during the reemergence. Moreover, the year-on-year GDP growth rate of Mainland China turned positive regardless of the reemergent local outbreaks. In general, the Chinese strategy to maintain the status of no or minimal transmission was effective in balancing the control of COVID-19 reemergent local outbreak and the recovery of economy.

Is the demographic dividend diminishing in China? Evidence from population aging and economic growth during 1990–2015

AbstractThis paper presents new empirical evidence on the effect of population aging on economic growth in China. Aging is widely assumed to impact economic growth by shaping the labor market performance and human capital. Using an interactive fixed effects model and a provincial panel data set during 1990–2015, and also exploiting the predicted province‐by‐year variation in population aging fraction as an instrument, we examine the impact of population aging on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, labor force ratio, and labor productivity. The results show that a 10% increase in the fraction of the population aged 65+ decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by approximately 2%. Furthermore, channel decomposition shows that half of the decrease is due to slower growth of the labor force ratio, whereas the rest may be due to slower productivity growth. In addition, the negative effect of aging on GDP growth is more substantial after the year 2000, and the effect of aging on the labor force ratio and productivity shows different patterns during different periods.

Sensitivity of Non-Performing Assets to GDP and Inflation Rate Volatility

This research examined the impact of inflation rate and gross domestic product (GDP) and their volatility on the non- performing assets (NPAs) in the Indian scheduled commercial banks from 1996–1997 to 2016–17. It examined how the macroeconomic volatility in the inflation rate and GDP significantly impacted the gross NPAs in the sampled banks. An econometric autoregressive model was employed where the gross NPAs were used as the explained variable, while one-period lags of gross NPAs, GDP, and inflation rate were the regressors. Pearson’s correlation analysis was also employed. Secondary data analysis was done. The findings confirmed that the one-period lag of gross NPAs had a positive and highly statistically significant effect on the gross NPAs ; whereas, GDP and inflation rate had a highly statistically insignificant effect on the gross NPAs in the sampled banks. It is envisaged that future research studies will be accomplished by including bank-specific and other macroeconomic factors. Other categories of Indian banks can be also included in further studies.