Eruption Rate Research Articles

A Potential Mushy Source for the Geysers of Enceladus and Other Icy Satellites

AbstractEnceladus is a target for astrobiology due to the plume ejecta measured by the Cassini spacecraft and the inferred subsurface ocean that could be the source of the geysers. Here we explore an alternative where shear heating along tiger stripe fractures produces partial melting in the ice shell and interstitial convection allows fluid to be ejected as geysers. We use an idealized two‐dimensional reactive transport model to simulate a mushy region generated by an upper‐bound estimate for the localized shear heating rate. We find that the rate of internal melting could potentially match the observed eruption rate. The composition of the liquid brine would be, however, distinct from that of the ocean, due to fractionation during partial melting. This shear heating mechanism for geyser formation could apply to Enceladus and other icy moons and has implications for our understanding of the geophysical processes and astrobiological potential of icy satellites.

The radial spreading of volcanic umbrella clouds deduced from satellite measurements

Analysis of thermal infrared satellite measurements of umbrella clouds generated by volcanic eruptions suggests that asymptotic gravity current models of the temporal (t) radial (r) spreading (r ~tf, f < 1) of the umbrella-shaped intrusion do not adequately explain the observations. Umbrella clouds from 13 volcanic eruptions are studied using satellite data that have spatial resolutions of ~4–25 km2 and temporal resolutions of 1–60 minutes. The umbrella cloud morphology is evaluated using digital image processing tools in a Lagrangian frame of reference. At the onset of neutral buoyancy, the radial spreading is better explained by a stronger dependence on time of r ~ t, rather than t2/3, t3/4, or t2/9. This flow regime exists on the order of minutes and has not been observed previously in satellite data. This may be of significance as it provides a means to rapidly (within the first 2–3 observations) determine the volumetric eruption rate. A hyperbolic tangent model, r ~ tanh(t) is presented that matches the entire radial spreading time history and has a conserved torus-shaped volume in which the intrusion depth is proportional to sech(t). This model also predicts the observed radial velocities. The data and the model estimates of the volumetric flow rate for the 15 January 2022 Hunga eruption are found to be 3.6–5 × 1011 m3s−1, the largest ever measured.

Evolution of eruption rate between two caldera-forming eruptions in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field, New Mexico, USA

Rhyolites that erupted between the Otowi and Tshirege members of the Bandelier Tuff, known as the Valle Toledo Member, were investigated in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field to infer changes in eruptive rate and flux between two caldera-forming eruptions. Our analysis combines high-precision 40Ar/39Ar single-crystal laser-fusion dating of sanidine, matrix glass compositions and mineralogy of pumice, depositional textures, and volumetric estimates of erupted rhyolites to present a revised Valle Toledo Member eruptive chronology that integrates our observations with those of previous studies. With the improved temporal resolution of our high-precision eruption ages (median 2σ uncertainty of ±2.9 ka), the updated Valle Toledo Member eruption chronology consists of at least 42 temporally or mineralogically distinct eruptions that we group into four periods of time based on eruption rate. Within the first 8.1 ± 5.1 kyr (~1605–1597 ka) that followed the Otowi caldera-forming eruption at 1605.4 ± 2.3 ka, six eruptions are recognized. This suggests an average recurrence interval on the order of 1.4 ± 0.9 kyr. Twenty-seven eruptions occurred during the next 194.4 ± 5.1 kyr (from ~1597–1403 ka) and the average recurrence interval increased to 7.2 ± 0.2 kyr. Following this second period of slower eruption rate, a previously unrecognized eruption hiatus of up to 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr occurred from 1402.9 ± 2.3 ka to 1240.5 ± 2.1 ka. Resumption of volcanic activity is characterized by a series of at least nine volcanic eruptions during the next 8.6 ± 2.5 kyr, culminating in the eruption of the 400 km3 Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff and formation of Valles caldera at 1231.9 ± 1.3 ka. This last phase of pre-caldera activity has the shortest observed average recurrence interval (1.0 ± 0.3 kyr) and greatest eruptive flux (≥ 0.4 ± 0.2 km3/kyr) that occurred between the two caldera-forming eruptions. We interpret the shifts in eruption rate and flux following the 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr eruption hiatus, in addition to mineralogical changes present in post-hiatus rhyolites, as indicators that the Bandelier system was trending towards another major eruption. The magmatic system may have grown gradually throughout the ca. 162 kyr period of volcanic repose; however, the heightened eruption rate in the ca. 10 kyr before caldera collapse is consistent with relatively rapid growth of the magmatic system before the Tshirege event as previously proposed by other studies. Furthermore, the new dataset is consistent with prior geochronology studies of the region that show the four largest explosive eruptions in the Jemez field were all proceeded by very slow eruptive rates or hiatuses. This demonstrates that sequences of heightened volcanic activity can initiate on rapid geological timescales from states of volcanic quiescence in the Bandelier system.

Seismic Signatures of Fluctuating Fragmentation in Volcanic Eruptions

AbstractFragmentation plays a critical role in eruption explosivity by influencing the eruptive jet and plume dynamics that may initiate hazards such as pyroclastic flows. The mechanics and progression of fragmentation during an eruption are challenging to constrain observationally, limiting our understanding of this important process. In this work, we explore seismic radiation associated with unsteady fragmentation. Seismic force and moment tensor fluctuations from unsteady fragmentation arise from fluctuations in fragmentation depth and wall shear stress (e.g., from viscosity variations). We use unsteady conduit flow models to simulate perturbations to a steady‐state eruption from injections of heterogeneous magma (specifically, variable magma viscosity due to crystal volume fraction variations). Changes in wall shear stress and pressure determine the seismic force and moment histories, which are used to calculate synthetic seismograms. We consider three heterogeneity profiles: Gaussian pulse, sinusoidal, and stochastic. Fragmentation of a high‐crystallinity Gaussian pulse produces a distinct very‐long‐period seismic signature and associated reduction in mass eruption rate, suggesting joint use of seismic, infrasound, and plume monitoring data to identify this process. Simulations of sinusoidal injections quantify the relation between the frequency or length scale of heterogeneities passing through fragmentation and spectral peaks in seismograms, with velocity seismogram amplitudes increasing with frequency. Stochastic composition variations produce stochastic seismic signals similar to observed eruption tremor, though computational limitations restrict our study to frequencies less than 0.25 Hz. We suggest that stochastic fragmentation fluctuations could be a plausible eruption tremor source.

Formation Rate of Quasiperiodic Eruptions in Galactic Nuclei Containing Single and Dual Supermassive Black Holes

Formation Rate of Quasiperiodic Eruptions in Galactic Nuclei Containing Single and Dual Supermassive Black Holes

Investigating Synoptic Influences on Tropospheric Volcanic Ash Dispersion from the 2015 Calbuco Eruption Using WRF-Chem Simulations and Satellite Data

We used WRF-Chem to simulate ash transport from eruptions of Chile’s Calbuco volcano on 22–23 April 2015. Massive ash and SO2 ejections reached the upper troposphere, and particulates transported over South America were observed over Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil via satellite and surface data. Numerical simulations with the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting–Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model from 22 to 27 April covered eruptions and particle propagation. Chemical and aerosol parameters utilized the GOCART (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) model, while the meteorological conditions came from NCEP-FNL reanalysis. In WRF-Chem, we implemented a more efficient methodology to determine the Eruption Source Parameters (ESP). This permitted each simulation to consider a sequence of eruptions and a time varying ESP, such as the eruption height and mass and the SO2 eruption rate. We used two simulations (GCTS1 and GCTS2) differing in the ash mass fraction in the finest bins (0–15.6 µm) by 2.4% and 16.5%, respectively, to assess model efficiency in representing plume intensity and propagation. Analysis of the active synoptic components revealed their impact on particle transport and the Andes’ role as a natural barrier. We evaluated and compared the simulated Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with VIIRS Deep Blue Level 3 data and SO2 data from Ozone Mapper and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Profiler (LP), both of which are sensors onboard the Suomi National Polar Partnership (NPP) spacecraft. The model successfully reproduced ash and SO2 transport, effectively representing influencing synoptic systems. Both simulations showed similar propagation patterns, with GCTS1 yielding better results when compared with AOD retrievals. These results indicate the necessity of specifying lower mass fraction in the finest bins. Comparison with VIIRS Brightness Temperature Difference data confirmed the model’s efficiency in representing particle transport. Overestimation of SO2 may stem from emission inputs. This study demonstrates the feasibility of our implementation of the WRF-Chem model to reproduce ash and SO2 patterns after a multi-eruption event. This enables further studies into aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions and atmospheric behavior following volcanic eruptions.

Awakening of Maunaloa Linked to Melt Shared from Kīlauea’s Mantle Source

Abstract Maunaloa—the largest active volcano on Earth—erupted in 2022 after its longest known repose period (~38 years) and two decades of volcanic unrest. This eruptive hiatus at Maunaloa encompasses most of the ~35-year-long Puʻuʻōʻō eruption of neighboring Kīlauea, which ended in 2018 with a collapse of the summit caldera and an unusually voluminous (~1 km3) rift eruption. A long-term pattern of such anticorrelated eruptive behavior suggests that a magmatic connection exists between these volcanoes within the asthenospheric mantle source and melting region, the lithospheric mantle, and/or the volcanic edifice. The exact nature of this connection is enigmatic. In the past, the distinct compositions of lavas from Kīlauea and Maunaloa were thought to require completely separate magma pathways from the mantle source of each volcano to the surface. Here, we use a nearly 200-yr record of lava chemistry from both volcanoes to demonstrate that melt from a shared mantle source within the Hawaiian plume may be transported alternately to Kīlauea or Maunaloa on a timescale of decades. This process led to a correlated temporal variation in 206Pb/204Pb and 87Sr/86Sr at these volcanoes since the early 19th century with each becoming more active when it received melt from the shared source. Ratios of highly over moderately incompatible trace elements (e.g. Nb/Y) at Kīlauea reached a minimum from ~2000 to 2010, which coincides with an increase in seismicity and inflation at the summit of Maunaloa. Thereafter, a reversal in Nb/Y at Kīlauea signals a decline in the degree of mantle partial melting at this volcano and suggests that melt from the shared source is now being diverted from Kīlauea to Maunaloa for the first time since the early to mid-20th century. These observations link a mantle-related shift in melt generation and transport at Kīlauea to the awakening of Maunaloa in 2002 and its eruption in 2022. Monitoring of lava chemistry is a potential tool that may be used to forecast the behavior (e.g. eruption rate and frequency) of these adjacent volcanoes on a timescale of decades. A future increase in eruptive activity at Maunaloa is likely if the temporal increase in Nb/Y continues at Kīlauea.

Large Eruptive and Confined Flares in Relation to the Solar Active Region Evolution

Solar active regions (ARs) provide the required magnetic energy and the topology configuration for flares. Apart from conventional static magnetic parameters, the evolution of AR magnetic flux systems should have nonnegligible effects on magnetic energy store and the trigger mechanism of eruptions, which would promote the prediction for the flare using photospheric observations conveniently. Here we investigate 322 large (M- and X-class) flares from 2010 to 2019, almost the whole solar cycle 24. The flare occurrence rate is obviously higher in the developing phase, which should be due to the stronger shearing and complex configurations caused by affluent magnetic emergences. However, the probability of flare eruptions in decaying phases of ARs is obviously higher than that in the developing phase. The confined flares were in nearly equal counts to eruptive flares in developing phases, whereas the eruptive flares were half over confined flares in decaying phases. Yearly looking at flare eruption rates demonstrates the same conclusion. The relationship between sunspot group areas and confined/erupted flares also suggested that the strong field make constraints on the mass ejection, though it can contribute to flare productions. The flare indexes also show a similar trend. It is worth mentioning that all the X-class flares in the decaying phase were erupted, without the strong field constraint. The decaying of magnetic flux systems had facilitation effects on flare eruptions, which may be consequent on the splitting of magnetic flux systems.

Cryptic degassing and protracted greenhouse climates after flood basalt events

Large igneous provinces erupt highly reactive, predominantly basaltic lavas onto Earth’s surface, which should boost the weathering flux leading to long-term CO2 drawdown and cooling following cessation of volcanism. However, throughout Earth’s geological history, the aftermaths of multiple Phanerozoic large igneous provinces are marked by unexpectedly protracted climatic warming and delayed biotic recovery lasting millions of years beyond the most voluminous phases of extrusive volcanism. Here we conduct geodynamic modelling of mantle melting and thermomechanical modelling of magma transport to show that rheologic feedbacks in the crust can throttle eruption rates despite continued melt generation and CO2 supply. Our results demonstrate how the mantle-derived flux of CO2 to the atmosphere during large igneous provinces can decouple from rates of surface volcanism, representing an important flux driving long-term climate. Climate–biogeochemical modelling spanning intervals with temporally calibrated palaeoclimate data further shows how accounting for this non-eruptive cryptic CO2 can help reconcile the life cycle of large igneous provinces with climate disruption and recovery during the Permian–Triassic, Mid-Miocene and other critical moments in Earth’s climate history. These findings underscore the key role that outgassing from intrusive magmas plays in modulating our planet’s surface environment.

Deep marine records of Deccan Trap volcanism before the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) mass extinction

The Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary is marked by a large impact and coeval mass extinction event that occurred 66 m.y. ago. Contemporaneous emplacement of the volcanic Deccan Traps also affected global climate before, during, and after the mass extinction. Many questions remain about the timing and eruption rates of Deccan volcanism, its precise forcing of climatic changes, and its signature in the marine geochemical sedimentary proxy record. Here, we compile new and existing mercury (Hg) concentration and osmium isotope (187Os/188Os) records for various stratigraphic sections worldwide. Both geochemical proxies have been suggested to reflect past variations in Deccan volcanic activity. New data from deep marine pelagic carbonate records are compared to contemporaneous records from shallower marine sites correlated through high-resolution cyclostratigraphic age models. The robustness of the proxy records is evaluated on a common timeline and compared to two different Deccan eruption history scenarios. Results show that the global 187Os/188Os signal is clearly reproducible, while the global Hg record does not form a consistent pattern. Moreover, the deep marine sections investigated do not record clear variations in the Hg cycle, particularly in the latest Cretaceous, prior to the extinction event. A detailed reevaluation of the precise depth of the redistribution of impactor-sourced platinum group elements does not exclude the possibility of a minor drop in 187Os/188Os corresponding with a pulse of Deccan volcanism ∼50,000 years before the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary. Simple Os isotope mass balance modeling indicates that the latest Cretaceous was marked by significant levels of basalt weathering. CO2 sequestration during this weathering likely overwhelmed the emission of Deccan volatiles, thereby contributing to the end of the late Maastrichtian warming.

Case study of a cluster of simple and complex monogenetic volcanoes in the north‐east part of the Michoacan–Guanajuato Volcanic Field, Central Mexico: Nomenclature implications

With the advent of new terminologies to categorize and characterize the simple and complex monogenetic volcanoes, also came the semantic issues, which caused a predicament for the usage of terms like simple, complex, polycyclic, polymagmatic, complex monogenetic volcanoes with polygenetic inheritance. To analyse and validate this nomenclature, we studied an overlapping volcanic structure located south of the present‐day town of Irapuato, Central Mexico, that appears to be a monogenetic complex at first sight. Field observations, tephra stratigraphy, petrography and geochemistry of the tephra deposits confirms that the structure is in fact a cluster of three simple (San Joaquin tuff ring and two scoria mounds) and one complex, polycyclic, polymagmatic (La Sanabria‐San Roque tuff ring) monogenetic volcanoes formed by independent events, governed by distinct conduits and magma bodies of different origin (subduction‐related, OIB and E‐MORB origin) and separated by different tephra sequences of dissimilar components and depositional characteristics. We estimate the magma volumes (using the juvenile content and their vesicularity percentage) to be at 0.40–1.31 × 108, 0.25 × 108 and 0.42–0.90 × 108 m3 for San Joaquin, La Sanabria and San Roque, reckoning an eruption duration of 77 and 48 and 81 days, respectively (considering an average eruption rate of 6 m3/s from the well‐documented shallow crater (<30 m), Ukinrek maars in Alaska) occurring within the age range of 40–70 k years (crater diameter and depth ratio). This study not only aided to validate the above‐mentioned terms for monogenetic volcanoes, but also reconsider a few of them and avoid confusion with the polygenetic counterparts.

Co-eruptive, endogenous edifice growth, uplift during 4 years of eruption at Sangay Volcano, Ecuador

We report sustained uplift throughout Volcan Sangay's most recent period of eruption (2019–22), moderated only by transient excursions during some of its largest explosions. Volcan Sangay (Amazonia, Ecuador), has been erupting since 2019, impacting both local communities and distant cities with ash fall and lahars. We analyzed ascending and descending Sentinel-1 radar imagery, constructing a robust network of interferograms spanning this eruptive period to measure relative ground displacements across the volcano. Our time series reveals a consistent uplift pattern (∼68 mm/yr) on the western and northern flanks of the volcano, which we attribute to volume increases in a body of magma located within the volcano's edifice beneath its western flank. This source appears to be vertically extensive, and is best fit by a quadrangular magma pathway, dipping towards the west and increasing in volume by 1.1 × 106 m3 between 2019 and 2022. We additionally identify non-magmatic deformation, including subsidence of fresh deposits and downslope displacement (∼50 mm/year) in the southeastern sector of the volcano. Co-eruptive uplift at Sangay is a rare observation of endogenous growth during an eruption and indicates that stratovolcano edifice stability is sensitive to both magma flux into the edifice and shallow controls on eruption rate.

The Crystallization of Continental Flood Basalt Lavas: Insights from Textural Studies

Abstract Continental flood basalt (CFB) provinces are products of the largest known volumetric eruptions on Earth (~104 km3), with individual flow fields commonly covering well over 10 000 km2 with a mean lava thickness of over 5 m. Studies focusing on the emplacement style of such lava flows have relied extensively on morphological observations and comparisons with modern lava flows and experimental analogs. In the present study, we compare the textures of flood basalt lavas with those from different eruption settings all over the world using data collected from pre-existing literature to gain detailed insights into the style of eruption. Comparison of crystal size distribution data indicates that the eruption style of CFBs is similar to those of modern-day fissure eruptions (e.g. Iceland). This matches inferences based on observations of morphology. We also use a 1D thermal model to estimate the depth-dependent cooling rates within a single lava lobe and test the validity of assumptions built into the formulation of these models for large scale flood basalt lavas. The results reveal that, on average, flood basalt lavas need to conductively cool much faster than we would expect (up to order of ~102 times faster) to match the textural observations. The model is also frequently unable to replicate the observed depth-wise relative variations in length with depth for CFB lavas. Furthermore, the calculated cooling rates from crystal shapes also do not match those calculated from crystal lengths, indicating the assumptions in cooling flow models need to be modified for large CFB flow fields. Given the large areas of CFB flow fields and the relatively long eruption times inferred for the emplacement of individual flow fields, we hypothesize that inflation of lobes and formation of new lobes via breakouts combined with variable eruption rates are key processes that are missing when modeling the cooling of these flow fields. Accounting for these processes is essential to derive accurate cooling rates, which is important to better understand the environmental impact CFBs have at the time of emplacement.

Explosive eruption style modulates volcanic electrification signals

Volcanic lightning detection has proven useful to volcano monitoring by providing information on eruption onset, source parameters, and ash cloud directions. However, little is known about the influence of changing eruptive styles on the generation of charge and electrical discharges inside the eruption column. The 2021 Tajogaite eruption (La Palma, Canary Islands) provided the rare opportunity to monitor variations in electrical activity continuously over several weeks using an electrostatic lightning detector. Here we show that throughout the eruption, silicate particle charging is the main electrification mechanism. Moreover, we find that the type of electrical activity is closely linked to the explosive eruption style. Fluctuations in the electrical discharge rates are likely controlled by variations in the mass eruption rate and/or changes in the eruption style. These findings hold promise for obtaining near real-time information on the dynamic evolution of explosive volcanic activity through electrostatic monitoring in the future.

Did steam boost the height and growth rate of the giant Hunga eruption plume?

The eruption of Hunga volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a higher plume and faster-growing umbrella cloud than has ever been previously recorded. The plume height exceeded 58 km, and the umbrella grew to 450 km in diameter within 50 min. Assuming an umbrella thickness of 10 km, this growth rate implied an average volume injection rate into the umbrella of 330–500 km3 s−1. Conventional relationships between plume height, umbrella-growth rate, and mass eruption rate suggest that this period of activity should have injected a few to several cubic kilometers of rock particles (tephra) into the plume. Yet tephra fall deposits on neighboring islands are only a few centimeters thick and can be reproduced using ash transport simulations with only 0.1–0.2 km3 erupted volume (dense-rock equivalent). How could such a powerful eruption contain so little tephra? Here, we propose that seawater mixing at the vent boosted the plume height and umbrella growth rate. Using the one-dimensional (1-D) steady plume model Plumeria, we find that a plume fed by ~90% water vapor at a temperature of 100 °C (referred to here as steam) could have exceeded 50 km height while keeping the injection rate of solids low enough to be consistent with Hunga’s modest tephra-fall deposit volume. Steam is envisaged to rise from intense phreatomagmatic jets or pyroclastic density currents entering the ocean. Overall, the height and expansion rate of Hunga’s giant plume is consistent with the total mass of fall deposits plus underwater density current deposits, even though most of the erupted mass decoupled from the high plume. This example represents a class of high (> 10 km), ash-poor, steam-driven plumes, that also includes Kīlauea (2020) and Fukutoku-oka-no-ba (2021). Their height is driven by heat flux following well-established relations; however, most of the heat is contained in steam rather than particles. As a result, the heights of these water-rich plumes do not follow well-known relations with the mass eruption rate of tephra.

The 23–24 March 2021 lava fountain at Mt Etna, Italy

In 2021, more than 50 paroxysmal episodes occurred at the South-East Crater (SEC) of Mt Etna, Italy. The 23–24 March lava fountain was one of the longest episodes and began with weak Strombolian explosions, gradually transitioning to lava fountaining. The eruption intensity then dropped more slowly than in previous episodes, resulting in pulsating Strombolian explosions dominated by ash emission. Thirty-four tephra samples were used to reconstruct the fallout dispersal and estimate the total erupted mass. Grain size, textural, petrological and geochemical analyses indicate different features and were compared with the gas phase (SO2 and HCl) in the volcanic plume. By applying stochastic global optimization to simulations of the temporal evolution of the eruption column height and tephra dispersal and deposition, the total erupted mass retrieved (6.76 × 108 kg) matches well the total erupted mass estimation by the ground-based deposit (8.03 ± 2.38 × 108 kg), reducing the column height throughout the episode from 6.44 to 4.5 km above sea level and resulting in a mass eruption rate ranging from 1.96 × 105 to 8.18 × 103 kg/s. The unusual duration of the March episode and the characteristics of the erupted products point to the change in explosive style and magma fragmentation from fountaining to ash emission phases, associated with a slower magma supply inducing a change in magma rheology and a final, prolonged ash generation. Furthermore, this study showed that using observational data and the variation in eruption source parameters for numerical simulations can improve the accuracy of predicting the dispersal plume, thus mitigating the potential impact of longer paroxysmal episodes.

The spatiotemporal evolution of monogenetic scoria cones in the Paricutin-Tancítaro region, Mexico: Results from a Morpho-chronological analysis and its consequences on the distributed volcanic hazard

The Paricutin-Tancítaro region (PTR) within the Michoacán-Guanajuato monogenetic Volcanic Field (MGVF) is characterized by a large stratovolcano, Tancítaro enclosed in a dense distribution of monogenetic volcanoes, mainly scoria cones, that includes the well-known Paricutin. The succession of seismic swarms beginning 54 years after the birth of Paricutin in 1943 represents a challenge for apprising the region's volcanic and seismic hazards. In this work, we introduce a novel methodology to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of the monogenetic scoria cones and the distributed volcanic hazards. We first performed a morpho-chronometric analysis of 171 scoria cones to estimate their relative ages, which revealed an increasing trend in the rate of monogenetic eruptions over the last 120 kyr, especially in the last 20 kyr, with a current mean waiting interval between monogenetic eruptions of only 120 yr. In a second step, we estimate the spatiotemporal evolution of monogenetic volcanic activity in PTR using a Voronoi tessellation to represent the spatial density distribution of scoria cone emplacement through time to detect dynamic shifts in volcanic activity locations in the region. This approach thus reveals spatial dynamic patterns in the rates of monogenetic eruptions over time. Subsequently, a Poisson process is assumed to estimate the spatially distributed cone-forming eruption probabilities based on the morpho-chronometrically analyzed cones. Remarkably, a high spatial correlation was found between the areas with the highest probabilities and the location of the recent seismic swarms recorded in the PTR.

Video-based measurements of the entrainment, speed and mass flux in a wind-blown eruption column

On May 4 2010 a wind-blown ash plume issued from Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Analysis of a 17-minute-long video recording of the eruption suggests that, within 2–2.5 km of the vent, the flow was moving with the wind and rising under buoyancy, following a trajectory directly analogous with laboratory experiments of turbulent buoyant plumes in a cross-flow. The radius of the time-averaged ash cloud grew with height z at a rate r = 0.48 z, corresponding to an entrainment coefficient 0.4, again consistent with laboratory experiments. By analysing the frames in the video and comparing the shape of the plume to that predicted by the model, we estimate that during the 17 minutes recorded, the eruption rate gradually decreased by about 43% from an initial rate of 1.11 × 104 kg s−1 to 0.63 × 104 kg s−1. The analysis reported herein opens the way to assess eruption rates and eruption column processes from video recordings during explosive volcanic eruptions.

The Nieve volcanic cluster: A Pliocene - Pleistocene lava dome cluster in the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field (México)

The Nieve monogenetic volcanic cluster is located in the central–eastern region of the Michoacán–Guanajuato volcanic field, along the Huiramba fault zone, a relay ramp in the Morelia–Acambay fault system produced by oblique north-northwest transtension. This volcanic cluster includes at least 17 middle Pliocene to late Pleistocene lava domes, two small shield volcanoes, and two scoria cones. Between 4 and 3.8 Ma, two effusive eruptions built two small shield volcanoes overlying one another, with a magma volume of 3.93 km3. Between 2.9 Ma and 21.4 ka, 17 lava domes and two scoria cones were emplaced on the flanks of these volcanoes. The entire cluster resulted in a total erupted volume of 17 km3, covering an area of 326 km2 and reaching a thickness of emplaced volcanic material of 1200 m, resulting in a magma eruption rate equivalent to 0.004 km3/ka. All the rocks associated with this cluster are within a relatively restricted range in composition, between 53.9 and 64.2 wt% SiO₂, from andesite enriched in silica to basaltic andesite. The presence of intrusive-rock xenoliths and xenocrysts with dissolution textures reveals that assimilation processes modified the magmas. Based on the regional geological record, we suggest that the establishment of the Nieve volcanic cluster has been controlled by tectonic structures and the basement of the region, which has allowed the chemical evolution of these magma batches that probably had sources in at least two deep reservoirs as reflected by the Nb/Th versus Ta/U ratio.

Single-crystal 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Montagna Grande-Monte Gibele trachytic shield volcano, Pantelleria (Strait of Sicily rift zone), Italy

Montagna Grande and Monte Gibele represent the northwestern and southeastern portions of a shield volcano (hereafter “MGV”) located entirely within the Cinque Denti caldera structure on Pantelleria. The Cinque Denti caldera formed during the 45.7 ± 1.0 ka eruption of the pantelleritic Green Tuff. Subsequent isostatic compensation was achieved by the eruption within the caldera of ∼3 km3 of trachyte lavas that comprise the MGV and are thought to represent renewed tapping of the Green Tuff magma reservoir. The time interval between the eruption of the Green Tuff and the MGV trachytes has not been well constrained, with previous KAr ages from alkali feldspar yielding ages between 44 ± 8 and 28 ± 16 ka. In this study we report the results of new single-crystal anorthoclase incremental heating and total fusion 40Ar/39Ar ages collected from three trachyte lava flows collected at different sites and at different stratigraphic heights that provided ages of 26.2 ± 2.0, 22.5 ± 0.8 ka, and 22.3 ± 2.8 ka (uncertainties at 2σ). The results indicate that there was a repose period of up to ∼20,000 years between the eruption of the caldera-forming ignimbrite and the caldera-filling trachytes. The timing of our oldest dated sample is coincident with renewed basaltic volcanism in the northwest part of the island at ∼28 ka and suggests that the eruption of the trachyte was promoted by mafic recharge. We briefly review the petrogenetic processes operative in the reservoir during the repose period. Modelling of the thermal and compositional evolution of the fractionating system indicates an eruption rate of 7.5 × 10−4 km3/yr over the ∼4 ka eruption period.