Vaginal bleeding associated with hormone therapy (HT) is the most common reason for treatment discontinuation. Cumulative amenorrhea rates (no bleeding or spotting for 13 cycles) ranging from 23% to 49% with current HT options1-3 are relatively lower than the 56% to 73% observed in the REPLENISH trial.4 The REPLENISH trial (NCT01942668) was a 12-month, phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter trial that evaluated TX-001HR (bioidentical 17β-estradiol and progesterone [E2/P4] combined in a single, oral softgel capsule; 1 mg E2/100 mg P4 FDA approved as BIJUVATM; TherapeuticsMD, Boca Raton, FL) vs placebo in 1835 menopausal women (40−65 y; intact uterus) for the treatment of menopausal, moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms (VMS). Overall, the proportion of women with no bleeding was high (74%-90%) with up to 1 year of TX-001HR. The objective of this analysis was to determine predictors of vaginal bleeding. Univariate analyses were used to assess the impact of age, race, BMI, smoking, time since last menstrual period (LMP), age at LMP, tubal ligation, parity, baseline E2 concentration, and baseline frequency and severity of VMS (mild=1 to severe=3) on the incidence of vaginal bleeding at any time during the study (cumulative incidence at cycle 13) and for bleeding that occurred in the first 3 months of the study (cumulative incidence at cycle 3). Predictors of vaginal bleeding with HT (at cycle 13) were age, time since LMP, E2 concentration, and severity of VMS. The likelihood of bleeding was reduced by 42% for every 5-year increase in age (P<0.0001) and by 39% for every 5-year increase in the time since LMP (P<0.0001). Incidence of bleeding significantly decreased by 54% with baseline E2 levels <10 pg/mL (P=0.0001), 59% with E2 levels <5 pg/mL (P<0.0001), and 47% for E2 levels 5 to <10 pg/mL (P=0.0040), when compared with E2 levels ≥10 pg/mL. There was 33% less bleeding reported for women with less severe VMS (<2.5 points). No statistically significant differences in reports of bleeding were noted for race, BMI, smoking, age at LMP, tubal ligation, parity, or baseline frequency of moderate to severe VMS. Similar predictors were noted for bleeding at cycle 3, except for baseline VMS severity, which was no longer a significant predictor. Cumulative amenorrhea was relatively high in TX-001HR users. Vaginal bleeding in women treated with TX-001HR increased in women who were younger, experienced their LMP more recently, and had higher baseline E2 concentrations. Even though the rate/amount of bleeding was relatively low overall,4 these data may help clinicians inform women who may be more likely to experience vaginal bleeding while taking combined E2/P4 for menopausal symptoms. 1. Prempro tablets PI. Wyeth Pharmaceuticals. 2. Activella tablets PI. Novo Nordisk FemCare AG. 3. Angeliq Tablets PI. Berlex. 4. Lobo RA, et al. Obstet Gynecol. 2018;132:161-170.
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