Range Shifts In Response Research Articles

Range shifts in response to past and future climate change: Can climate velocities and species’ dispersal capabilities explain variation in mammalian range shifts?

AbstractAimRange shift is a relatively well‐understood response to climate change, but our ability to predict shifts is limited. Two factors that may cause variation in range shifts across species are dispersal ability and varying rates of climate change through time and across space. Here, we assess patterns of range shifts during the late Quaternary and estimate how the velocity of climate change and the dispersal ability of a species affect the magnitude of species range shifts in response to climate change.LocationNorth America.MethodsWe hindcast species distribution models for 122 North American mammals to five times over the past 17,000 years and forecast them to two future times given two emissions scenarios. Generalized additive models were constructed to quantify the importance of dispersal ability and the velocity of temperature and precipitation in determining the magnitude of range shift expected for individual species.ResultsHindcasted and forecasted ranges demonstrate the variety of responses to climate change. In general, species shifted their ranges in a northerly direction (NW, N, NE) regardless of the type of climate change (i.e., warming vs. cooling). The highest rates of range shifts during the past occurred during periods of relatively rapid climate change (Last Glacial Maximum/Bølling‐Allerød and Bølling‐Allerød/Younger Dryas transitions). Rates of range shifts for the future are projected to be significantly higher than any of the past intervals. The velocity of climate change is significantly associated with the magnitude of range shifts during climate transitions that occur over longer time‐scales, while maximum dispersal distance is important during periods of rapid climate change.Main ConclusionsOur results suggest that both the dispersal ability and the velocity of climate change are significantly associated with species’ range shifts. However, the importance of these two factors is context‐dependent and depends on the interaction of the rate of climate change and the length of time over which the change occurs.

Biophysical drivers of fiddler crab species distribution at a latitudinal limit

Traditionally, it is thought that tropical species diversity and abundance decrease with an increase in latitude, responding to a gradient of drivers related to climate or biotic interactions. To investigate this, potential abiotic (soil, water, and biogeographic parameters) and biotic (brachyuran diversity, gastropod density, tree density, meiofauna density and food availability) drivers of fiddler crabs along the east coast of South Africa (26°S - 34°S) were assessed in multivariate models of fiddler crab presence/absence and abundance. Overall fiddler crab presence/absence was most strongly influenced by biotic variables (i.e. brachyuran diversity, gastropod density, and tree density), while abundance was driven largely by sediment grain size and canopy cover (abiotic variables). Specifically, Austruca occidentalis did not have any strong drivers aside from tree density, both Paraleptuca chlorophthalmus and Tubuca urvillei were influenced strongly by sediment grain size, tree density and crab diversity while Gelasimus hesperiae was influenced by a change in latitude, sediment grain size and meiofauna density. Distribution is not always correlated with latitude or latitudinally-driven variables. Biotic factors seem to play a large role in determining whether or not a species inhabits a specific mangrove habitat while, once established, abiotic factors drive density. This study highlights the complexity of drivers affecting species at their distributional limits, an important assessment considering that these populations would likely demonstrate range shifts in response to climate shifts or changes.

Climate Change and Mountaintop-Removal Mining: A MaxEnt Assessment of the Potential Threat to West Virginian Fishes

Accounts of species' range shifts in response to climate change are rapidly accumulating. These range shifts are often attributed to species tracking their thermal niches as temperatures in their native ranges increase. Our objective was to estimate the degree to which shifts in water temperature driven by climate change may increase the exposure of West Virginia's native freshwater fishes to mountaintop-removal surface coal mining. We projected midcentury shifts in habitat suitability for 9 non-game West Virginian fishes via maximum entropy species distribution modeling, using a combination of physical habitat, historical climate conditions, and future climate data. Modeling projections for a high-emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) predict that habitat suitability will increase in high-elevation streams near mountaintop mining sites for 8 of 9 species, with increases in habitat suitability varying from 46% to 418%. We conclude that many West Virginian fishes will be at risk of increased exposure to mountaintop mining if climate change continues at a rapid pace.

Critical thermal limits of bumble bees (Bombus impatiens) are marked by stereotypical behaviors and are unchanged by acclimation, age, or feeding status

Critical thermal limits often determine species distributions for diverse ectotherms and have become a useful tool for understanding past and predicting future range shifts in response to changing climates. Despite recently documented population declines and range shifts of bumblebees (genus Bombus), the few measurements of thermal tolerance available for the group have relied on disparate measurement approaches. We describe a novel stereotypical behavior expressed by bumblebee individuals during entry into chill coma. This behavioral indicator of minimum critical temperature (CTmin) occurred at ambient temperatures of 3-5°C (approximately 7-9°C core temperatures) and was accompanied by a pronounced CO2 pulse, indicative of loss of spiracle function. Maximum critical temperature (CTmax) was indicated by the onset of muscular spasms prior to entering an unresponsive state and occurred at ambient temperatures of approximately 52-55°C (42-44°C core temperatures). Measurements of CTmin and CTmax were largely unaffected by acclimation, age or feeding status, but faster ramping rates significantly increased CTmax and decreased CTmin This high-throughput approach allows rapid measurement of critical thermal limits for large numbers of individuals, facilitating large-scale comparisons among bumblebee populations and species - a key step in determining current and future effects of climate on these critical pollinators.

Spatial genetic structure in American black bears (Ursus americanus): female philopatry is variable and relatedto population history.

Previously, American black bears (Ursus americanus) were thought to follow the pattern of female philopatry and male-biased dispersal. However, recent studies have identified deviations from this pattern. Such flexibility in dispersal patterns can allow individuals greater ability to acclimate to changing environments. We explored dispersal and spatial genetic relatedness patterns across ten black bear populations-including long established (historic), with known reproduction >50 years ago, and newly established (recent) populations, with reproduction recorded <50 years ago-in the Interior Highlands and Southern Appalachian Mountains, United States. We used spatially explicit, individual-based genetic simulations to model gene flow under scenarios with varying levels of population density, genetic diversity, and female philopatry. Using measures of genetic distance and spatial autocorrelation, we compared metrics between sexes, between population types (historic and recent), and among simulated scenarios which varied in density, genetic diversity, and sex-biased philopatry. In empirical populations, females in recent populations exhibited stronger patterns of isolation-by-distance (IBD) than females and males in historic populations. In simulated populations, low-density populations had a stronger indication of IBD than medium- to high-density populations; however, this effect varied in empirical populations. Condition-dependent dispersal strategies may permit species to cope with novel conditions and rapidly expand populations. Pattern-process modeling can provide qualitative and quantitative means to explore variable dispersal patterns, and could be employed in other species, particularly to anticipate range shifts in response to changing climate and habitat conditions.

Why georeferencing matters: Introducing a practical protocol to prepare species occurrence records for spatial analysis.

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to understand environmental controls on species’ ranges and to forecast species range shifts in response to climatic changes. The quality of input data is crucial determinant of the model's accuracy. While museum records can be useful sources of presence data for many species, they do not always include accurate geographic coordinates. Therefore, actual locations must be verified through the process of georeferencing. We present a practical, standardized manual georeferencing method (the Spatial Analysis Georeferencing Accuracy (SAGA) protocol) to classify the spatial resolution of museum records specifically for building improved SDMs. We used the high‐elevation plant Saxifraga austromontana Wiegand (Saxifragaceae) as a case study to test the effect of using this protocol when developing an SDM. In MAXENT, we generated and compared SDMs using a comprehensive occurrence dataset that had undergone three different levels of georeferencing: (1) trained using all publicly available herbarium records of the species, minus outliers (2) trained using herbarium records claimed to be previously georeferenced, and (3) trained using herbarium records that we have manually georeferenced to a ≤ 1‐km resolution using the SAGA protocol. Model predictions of suitable habitat for S. austromontana differed greatly depending on georeferencing level. The SDMs fitted with presence locations georeferenced using SAGA outperformed all others. Differences among models were exacerbated for future distribution predictions. Under rapid climate change, accurately forecasting the response of species becomes increasingly important. Failure to georeference location data and cull inaccurate samples leads to erroneous model output, limiting the utility of spatial analyses. We present a simple, standardized georeferencing method to be adopted by curators, ecologists, and modelers to improve the geographic accuracy of museum records and SDM predictions.

Altitudinal Range Shifts of Birds At the Southern Periphery of the Boreal Forest: 40 Years of Change In the Adirondack Mountains

ABSTRACT.— Studies of geographic range shifts in response to climate warming that use data from Christmas Bird Counts or repeated state and provincial faunal atlases are better at detecting latitudinal shifts than altitudinal shifts because the coarse geographic scale of most citizen-science survey units masks the substantial elevational variation within their boundaries. To more directly measure altitudinal range shifts of forest-breeding bird species, we repeated an altitudinal transect survey conducted 40 years ago at Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondacks, New York, USA. We conducted roadside bird surveys at dawn and dusk at seven survey stations that ranged in altitude from 500 m to 1,425 m. We found considerable interspecific variation in the movement of altitudinal ranges, but document a preponderance of uphill shifts in both upper and lower boundaries of altitudinal breeding ranges. The shift of abundance-weighted mean altitudes for 42 species detected in both survey periods was +82.8 m. These shif...

Rapid adaptive evolution in novel environments acts as an architect of population range expansion

Colonization and expansion into novel landscapes determine the distribution and abundance of species in our rapidly changing ecosystems worldwide. Colonization events are crucibles for rapid evolution, but it is not known whether evolutionary changes arise mainly after successful colonization has occurred, or if evolution plays an immediate role, governing the growth and expansion speed of colonizing populations. There is evidence that spatial evolutionary processes can speed range expansion within a few generations because dispersal tendencies may evolve upwards at range edges. Additionally, rapid adaptation to a novel environment can increase population growth rates, which also promotes spread. However, the role of adaptive evolution and the relative contributions of spatial evolution and adaptation to expansion are unclear. Using a model system, red flour beetles (Tribolium castaneum), we either allowed or constrained evolution of populations colonizing a novel environment and measured population growth and spread. At the end of the experiment we assessed the fitness and dispersal tendency of individuals originating either from the core or edge of evolving populations or from nonevolving populations in a common garden. Within six generations, evolving populations grew three times larger and spread 46% faster than populations in which evolution was constrained. Increased size and expansion speed were strongly driven by adaptation, whereas spatial evolutionary processes acting on edge subpopulations contributed less. This experimental evidence demonstrates that rapid evolution drives both population growth and expansion speed and is thus crucial to consider for managing biological invasions and successfully introducing or reintroducing species for management and conservation.

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution.

Can Aquatic Plants Keep Pace with Climate Change?

The persistence of species may depend upon their capacity to keep pace with climate change. However, dispersal has been ignored in the vast majority of studies that aimed at estimating and predicting range shifts as a response to climate change. Long distance dispersal (LDD) in particular might promote rapid range shifts and allow species to track suitable habitat. Many aquatic plant species are dispersed by birds and have the potential to be dispersed over hundreds of kilometers during the bird migration seasons. I argue that such dispersal potential might be critical to allow species to track climate change happening at unprecedented high rates. As a case study, I used dispersal data from three aquatic plant species dispersed by migratory birds to model range shifts in response to climate change projections. By comparing four dispersal scenarios – (1) no dispersal, (2) unlimited dispersal, (3) LDD < 100 km, and (4) LDD mediated by bird migratory movements –, it was shown that, for bird-mediated dispersal, the rate of colonization is sufficient to counterbalance the rate of habitat loss. The estimated rates of colonization (3.2–31.5 km⋅year-1) are higher than, for example, the rate of global warming (previously estimated at 0.42 km⋅year-1). Although further studies are needed, the results suggest that these aquatic plant species can adjust their ranges under a severe climate change scenario. Therefore, investigating the dispersal capacity of species, namely their LDD potential, may contribute to estimate the likelihood of species to keep pace with climate change.

Persistence of greater sage‐grouse in agricultural landscapes

ABSTRACTLocal extirpations influence species’ range contractions and are often precursors of range‐wide extinction. Understanding extinction dynamics is important for devising effective management strategies to protect threatened and endangered species. The greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is an example of a species undergoing range contraction, and has been extirpated from nearly half its historically occupied habitat. We used species distribution modeling to quantify environmental variables constraining a threatened sage‐grouse population inhabiting an agricultural landscape in Washington, USA. Fields planted to perennial vegetation as part of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) were important in providing year‐round habitat for sage‐grouse but only when intermixed with native sagebrush‐steppe vegetation. Without the CRP, we estimate 66% of sage‐grouse habitat in the study area would become unsuitable. Conversely, if CRP allotments were concentrated near occupied native sagebrush‐steppe, we estimate the area of sage‐grouse habitat could be increased by up to 63%. In addition to the area of native sagebrush‐steppe and CRP lands, we also found that climate variability, the patch configuration of sagebrush‐steppe, and proximity to major roads and transmission lines constrain the distribution of occupied habitat within the study area. Our study demonstrates how conservation programs such as CRP may be used as a management tool to reduce the risk of extirpation in agricultural areas, and to facilitate species range shifts in response to climatic changes in the sagebrush biome. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Elevational range shifts in four mountain ungulate species from the Swiss Alps

AbstractWarming‐induced range shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients have been observed in several species from various taxa. The mobility and behavioral plasticity of large endothermic mammals, however, complicate the detection of climatic effects on their spatial distributions. Here, we analyzed 230,565 hunting locations of the four most abundant ungulate species in the European Alps: ibex, chamois, red deer, and roe deer. Year‐to‐year and inter‐decadal range shifts toward higher elevations in Switzerland coincided with warmer, snow‐free, and thus more favorable autumn conditions in the same area. The average harvest elevation of ibex, chamois, and red deer significantly increased between 1991 and 2013. Although this trend is anticipated to continue, behavioral plasticity may allow the Alpine ibex and other mountain ungulates to buffer some of the associated consequences of climate change. Our results demonstrate the utility of well‐replicated hunting archives to supplement shorter but more precise monitoring data. This study also provides independent evidence of animal range shifts in response to environmental change at interannual and multi‐decadal time‐scales.

Functional trait ecology in the Anthropocene: a standardized framework for terrestrial invertebrates

Functional trait ecology in the Anthropocene: a standardized framework for terrestrial invertebrates

Range shifts in response to climate change of Ophiocordyceps sinensis, a fungus endemic to the Tibetan Plateau

Recent climate change has been widely recognized to influence the distribution of many plants and animals, while its impacts on the distribution of fungi remain largely unknown. Here, we used Ophiocordyceps sinensis, an entomopathogenic fungus and important traditional Chinese medicine whose distribution range was reported as decreased on the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades, as an example to predict the current potential distribution and the possible range shifts in response to climate change of a fungus by using extensive field records and an ensemble species distribution modeling method. It is demonstrated that the distribution range of the fungus wound decrease significantly, shifting upward in altitude and toward the central part of the Plateau. In an unlimited dispersal scenario, net habitat losses of 19% for both years 2050 and 2070 under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and of 8% and 4% under RCP8.5 for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively, were predicted. If a non-dispersal scenario was considered, 36–39% of the current habitats would be lost in the future. The results presented here will not only provide useful information for the conservation of O. sinensis, but also provide a representative case of evaluating impacts of climate change on fungal distribution using species distribution modeling method.

Mobile hotspots and refugia of avian diversity in the mountains of south‐west China under past and contemporary global climate change

AbstractAimTo identify hotspots of endemic and non‐endemic avian diversity in the mountains of south‐west China and delineate biodiversity corridors that connect the faunas of northern and southern Asia. To understand how biodiversity and endemism in this region has been maintained through palaeoclimate change.LocationThe mountains of south‐west China, spanning an elevational gradient &gt; 7000 m.MethodsWe used the distributional data of 752 breeding birds to investigate current patterns of diversity across elevational and geographical space. We simulated species richness under palaeoclimate models of global temperature change, assessing changes in species richness.ResultsContemporary species richness of non‐endemic birds peaked at 800–1800 m elevation, while endemic richness peaked at 2000–3000 m. Richness of non‐endemic birds was highest in the southern Hengduan Mountains and Yungui Plateau, while endemic richness peaked further north, extending into the mountains along the western edge of the Sichuan Basin. Under global warming models, species richness remained high throughout the Hengduan Mountains region. Under global cooling models, the Sichuan Basin showed increased richness.ConclusionsEndemism peaked in the mountains along the western edge of the Sichuan Basin, highlighting the importance of this region in promoting and maintaining diversity. This region has likely functioned as a biodiversity corridor, bridging the Palaearctic and Oriental biotas to the north and south. Climate simulations suggest that the mountains of south‐west China can accommodate upslope range shifts in response to warming, but low elevation specialists may have experienced increased extinction probabilities during cold periods in the recent past, which may in part explain the current mid‐elevation diversity peak. During glacial periods the Sichuan Basin likely served as a warm refugium for montane birds. Steep environmental heterogeneity has been a key to maintaining high diversity and endemism in the region during palaeoclimate change. These same features will likely shape the effects of future climate change on biodiversity in the region.

Managing shifting species: Ancient DNA reveals conservation conundrums in a dynamic world.

The spread of exotic species represents a major driver of biological change across the planet. While dispersal and colonization are natural biological processes, we suggest that the failure to recognize increasing rates of human-facilitated self-introductions may represent a threat to native lineages. Notably, recent biogeographic analyses have revealed numerous cases of biological range shifts in response to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. In particular, ancient DNA analyses have revealed several cases in which lineages traditionally thought to be long-established "natives" are in fact recent colonizers. Such range expansion events have apparently occurred in response to human-mediated native biodiversity declines and ecosystem change, particularly in recently colonized, isolated ecosystems such as New Zealand. While such events can potentially boost local biodiversity, the spread of exotic lineages may also hasten the decline of indigenous species, so it is essential that conservation managers recognize these rapid biotic shifts.​.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Precocious reproduction increases at the leading edge of a mangrove range expansion.

Climate change‐driven shifts in species ranges are ongoing and expected to increase. However, life‐history traits may interact with climate to influence species ranges, potentially accelerating or slowing range shifts in response to climate change. Tropical mangroves have expanded their ranges poleward in the last three decades. Here, we report on a shift at the range edge in life‐history traits related to reproduction and dispersal. With a common garden experiment and field observations, we show that Rhizophora mangle individuals from northern populations reproduce at a younger age than those from southern populations. In a common garden at the northern range limit, 38% of individuals from the northernmost population were reproductive by age 2, but less than 10% of individuals from the southernmost population were reproductive by the same age, with intermediate amounts of reproduction from intermediate latitudes. Field observations show a similar pattern of younger reproductive individuals toward the northern range limit. We also demonstrate a shift toward larger propagule size in populations at the leading range edge, which may aid seedling growth. The substantial increase in precocious reproduction at the leading edge of the R. mangle range could accelerate population growth and hasten the expansion of mangroves into salt marshes.

Climate‐driven changes to ocean circulation and their inferred impacts on marine dispersal patterns

AbstractAimThe dispersal and distribution patterns of many marine organisms are driven by oceanographic conditions, which are influenced by global climate. Climate‐driven oceanographic changes are thus likely to result in biogeographical changes. We assess how recent and predicted oceanographic changes affect the dispersal capacities and distributions of ecologically important (especially habitat‐forming) marine organisms.LocationWe include studies from tropical, temperate and sub‐polar regions to draw globally relevant conclusions.MethodsWe review biogeographical, biological and oceanographic studies to critically evaluate emerging trends in biogeographical responses to climate‐driven oceanographic changes, and predict how future changes will affect marine ecosystems.ResultsMany oceanic dispersal pathways are being altered by climate change. These changes will affect marine ecosystems by differentially affecting the replenishment potential and connectivity of key habitat‐forming species. In particular, the length of propagule pre‐competency periods, propagule behaviour and the geographical distance between areas of suitable habitat will be critical in determining how oceanographic changes affect the pattern and success of dispersal events, including the likelihood of species experiencing poleward range shifts in response to a warming climate.Main conclusionsFuture climate‐driven oceanographic changes are likely to strengthen or weaken different oceanic dispersal pathways, which will either increase or decrease the potential for dispersal and connectivity in various marine taxa according to the interaction between the local oceanographic, geographical and taxon‐specific biological factors. A key focus for future work should be the development of fine‐scale near‐shore ocean circulation models that can be used to assess the dispersal response of key marine taxa under various marine climate change scenarios.

Model‐based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity

Summary Changing climate is already impacting the spatial distribution of many taxa, including bees, plants, birds, butterflies and fishes. A common goal is to detect range shifts in response to climate change, including changes in the centre of the population's distribution (the centre of gravity, COG), population boundaries and area occupied. Conventional estimators, such as the abundance‐weighted average (AWA) estimator for COG, confound range shifts with changes in the spatial distribution of available survey data and may be biased when the distribution of survey data shifts over time. AWA also does not estimate the standard error of COG in individual years and cannot incorporate data from multiple survey designs. To explicitly account for changes in the spatial distribution of survey effort, we propose an alternative species distribution function (SDF) estimator. The SDF approach involves calculating distribution metrics, including COG, population boundary and area occupied, directly from the predicted species distribution or density function. We illustrate the SDF approach using a spatiotemporal model that is available as an r package. Using simulated data, we confirm that the SDF substantially decreases bias in COG estimates relative to the AWA estimator. We then illustrate the method by analysing data from two data sets spanning 1977–2013 for 18 marine fishes along the U.S. West Coast. In our case study, the SDF estimator shows significant northward shifts for six of 18 species (with southward shifts for only 2), where two species (darkblotched and greenstriped rockfishes) have both a northward shift and a decreased area occupied. Pelagic species (e.g. Pacific hake and spiny dogfish) have more variable distribution than bottom‐associated species. We also find substantial differences between AWA and SDF estimates of COG that are likely caused by shifts in sampling distribution (which affect the AWA but not the SDF estimator). We caution that common estimators for range shift can yield inappropriate inference whenever sampling designs have shifted over time. We conclude by suggesting further improvements in model‐based approaches to analysing climate impacts, including methods addressing the impact of local and regional temperature changes on species distribution.