Range Shifts In Response Research Articles

Growing degree‐days do not explain moth species' distributions at broad scales

AbstractGrowing degree‐days (GDD), an estimate of an organism's growing season length, has been shown to be an important predictor of Lepidopteran species' distributions and could be influencing Lepidopteran range shifts to climate change. Yet, one understudied simplification in this literature is that the same thermal threshold is used in the calculations of GDD for all species instead of a species‐specific threshold. By characterizing the phenological process influenced by climate, a species‐specific estimate of GDD should improve the accuracy of species distribution models (SDMs). To test this hypothesis, we used published, experimentally estimated thermal thresholds and modeled the current geographic distribution of 30 moth species native to North America. We found that the predictive performance of models based on a species‐specific estimate of GDD was indistinguishable from models based on a standard estimate of GDD. This is likely because GDD was not an important predictor of these species' distributions. Our findings suggest that experimentally estimated thermal thresholds may not always scale up to be predictive at broad scales and that more work is needed to leverage the data from lab experiments into SDMs to accurately predict species' range shifts in response to climate change.

Is adaptation associated with long-term persistence beyond a geographic range limit?

Adaptation to new habitats might facilitate species' range shifts in response to climate change. In 2005, we transplanted experimental populations of coastal dune plant Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia into 4 sites within and 1 site beyond its poleward range limit. Beyond-range transplants had high fitness but often delayed reproduction. To test for adaptation associated with experimental range expansion, we transplanted descendants from beyond- and within-range populations after 10 generations in situ into 2 sites within the range, 1 at the range edge, and 2 sites beyond the range. We expected to detect adaptation to beyond-range conditions due to substantial genetic variation within experimental populations and environmental variation among sites. However, individuals from beyond-range experimental populations were not fitter than those from within the range when planted at either beyond-range site, indicating no adaptation to the beyond-range site or beyond-range environments in general. Beyond-range descendants also did not suffer lower fitness within the range. Although reproduction was again delayed beyond the range, late reproduction was not favored more strongly beyond than within the range, and beyond-range descendants did not delay reproduction more than within-range descendants. Persistence in beyond-range environments may not require adaptation, which could allow a rapid response to climate change.

Accounting for nonlinear responses to traits improves range shift predictions

AbstractAccurately predicting species' range shifts in response to environmental change is paramount for understanding ecological processes and global change. In synthetic analyses, traits emerge as significant but weak predictors of species' range shifts across recent climate change. These studies assume linear responses to traits, while detailed empirical work often reveals trait responses that are unimodal and contain thresholds or other nonlinearities. We hypothesize that the use of linear modeling approaches fails to capture these nonlinearities and, therefore, may be under‐powering traits to predict range shifts. We evaluate the predictive performance of approaches that can capture nonlinear relationships (ridge‐regularized linear regression, support vector regression with linear and nonlinear kernels, and random forests). We apply our models using six multidecadal range shift datasets for plants, moths, marine fish, birds, and small mammals. We show that nonlinear approaches can perform better than least‐squares linear modeling in reproducing historical range shifts. Consistent with expectations, we identify dispersal and climatic niche traits as primary determinants of distribution shifts. Traits identified as important predictors and the direction of trait effects are generally consistent across models, but there are notable exceptions. Among important predictors, there are more consistent responses to climatic niches than dispersal ability. Modest improvements in predictability when accounting for nonlinearities and interactions, and the overall low amount of variance accounted for by trait predictors suggest limits to trait‐based statistical predictive frameworks.

Extreme High-Elevation Mammal Surveys Reveal Unexpectedly High Upper Range Limits of Andean Mice.

AbstractIn the world's highest mountain ranges, uncertainty about the upper elevational range limits of alpine animals represents a critical knowledge gap regarding the environmental limits of life and presents a problem for detecting range shifts in response to climate change. Here we report results of mountaineering mammal surveys in the Central Andes, which led to the discovery of multiple species of mice living at extreme elevations that far surpass previously assumed range limits for mammals. We livetrapped small mammals from ecologically diverse sites spanning >6,700 m of vertical relief, from the desert coast of northern Chile to the summits of the highest volcanoes in the Andes. We used molecular sequence data and whole-genome sequence data to confirm the identities of species that represent new elevational records and to test hypotheses regarding species limits. These discoveries contribute to a new appreciation of the environmental limits of vertebrate life.

A new R package to parse plant species occurrence records into unique collection events efficiently reduces data redundancy

Biodiversity data aggregators, such as Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) suffer from inflation of the number of occurrence records when data from different databases are merged but not fully reconciled. The ParseGBIF workflow is designed to parse duplicate GBIF species occurrence records into unique collection events (gatherings) and to optimise the quality of the spatial data associated with them. ParseGBIF provides tools to verify and standardize species scientific names according to the World Checklist of Vascular Plants taxonomic backbone, and to parse duplicate records into unique ‘collection events’, in the process compiling the most informative spatial data, where more than one duplicate is available, and providing crude estimates of taxonomic and spatial data quality. When GBIF occurrence records for a medium-sized vascular plant family, the Myrtaceae, were processed by ParseGBIF, the average number of records useful for spatial analysis increased by 180%. ParseGBIF could therefore be valuable in the evaluation of species’ occurrences at the national scale in support for national biodiversity plans, identification of plant areas important for biodiversity, sample bias estimation to inform future sampling efforts, and to forecast species range shifts in response to global climate change.

Biotic interactions vary across species' ranges and are likely conserved through geological time

AbstractAimThe evolutionary interactions between western spadefoot toads (genus Spea) represent a textbook example of character displacement, facilitated by dietary specialization of one Spea species on fairy shrimp (Anostraca) when all three co‐occur. The aim of this study is to understand the covariation between predator (Spea) and prey (Anostraca) range shifts in response to climate change oscillations, and whether biotic interactions can be used to project species distribution models on different time scales when studying species with dietary specialization. Taxon: Amphibia: Spea spp. and Crustacea: Anostraca.LocationNorth America.MethodsUsing multiple modelling techniques, we first estimated the potential distribution of central and western North American fairy shrimp species (Crustacea: Anostraca) and two western spadefoot toad species (Spea bombifrons and Spea multiplicata). We then created a shrimp species richness map by aggregating individual species estimates. Third, we studied the relationship between the probability of spadefoot toad presence and fairy shrimp species richness during the present and Last Glacial Maximum conditions. Finally, we estimated the strength and direction of the co‐occurrence between spadefoot toads and fairy shrimp sampled at the level of entire predicted range and at the regional level (allopatric and sympatric).ResultsFirst, the same abiotic environmental variables shape spadefoot toad and fairy shrimp species' distributions in central and western North America across time. Second, areas of sympatry of Spea bombifrons and Spea multiplicata correspond with dry conditions and higher shrimp richness. Finally, the spatial patterns of predator–prey co‐occurrence are highly variable across geography, forming a spatial mosaic over the species' ranges.Main ConclusionPredator–prey relationships form a spatial mosaic across geography and species ranges. Including biotic interactions into species distribution estimates for organisms with dietary specialization is highly recommended. Biotic interactions can be projected across different time frames for organisms with dietary specialization as they are likely conserved.

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

IntroductionForecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss.MethodsWe conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees.ResultsWhile the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia, while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana.DiscussionBy reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

Genetic inference of orchid colonization of a Costa Rican lava flow

AbstractThe dispersal and colonization of plant populations allow species to occupy novel habitats, migrate, and undergo range shifts in response to changing environmental factors and, as such, are fundamental ecological processes for ensuring the long‐term persistence of species. Natural landscape disturbance often generates habitats available for colonization. Patterns of colonization and population expansion can be inferred from the levels and partitioning of genetic variation of plant populations with known disturbance histories, such as recent volcanic eruptions. We sampled and mapped 496 individuals from two populations of the colonizing terrestrial orchid, Sobralia chrysostoma, on the 1992 lava flow of Volcán Arenal in central Costa Rica. We used neutral co‐dominant markers to genotype individuals and estimate population genetic statistics. Both populations had high mean levels of genetic diversity (P = 100%; AP = 3.31; He = 0.259) suggesting that the lava flow was colonized by numerous individuals that likely originated from multiple source populations. However, significant spatial genetic structure (SGS) was only present in one population at the smallest distance class (≤2 m) and was low (r = 0.032). That these large and genetically diverse populations had such low SGS and an absence of SGS, respectively is contrary to expectations and differs significantly from the pattern in Epidendrum radicans (Orchidaceae), with which S. chrysostoma is growing sympatrically. Our results suggest that these two populations either consist primarily of immigrant individuals or that seeds produced in situ dispersed over longer distances, thereby producing larger seed shadows and greater overlap of seed shadows.

Range Mapper: An Adaptable Process for Making and Using Interactive, Animated Web Maps of Late-Quaternary Open Paleoecological Data

Here, we describe our process of developing Range Mapper, a new set of online interactive and animated visualizations of plant taxon range shifts since the Last Glacial Maximum. These animated maps of taxa distributions since the last deglaciation, based upon spatiotemporal networks of fossil occurrences, offer adaptable visualizations of species range shifts in response to past climate and other environmental changes. They are designed to be useful both for experts for quick-look insights into past patterns and processes at broad scales and for educators and science communicators interested in sharing knowledge about how species adapt to changing climates. Prior generations of animations, such as Pollen Viewer, lacked open-source code and so were not easy to update, and the underlying software no longer complies with internet security standards. Range Mapper maps data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database using CARTO VL, an open-source JavaScript library for creating dynamic and modifiable web maps that interoperates with CARTO’s software-as-a-service platform. Specifically, we downloaded, processed, and temporally interpolated 2,635 georeferenced pollen records from Neotoma ranging from 21 thousand years ago (ka) to present. Then, we created maps for North America, Europe, and Oceania using Carto VL’s web mapping features to build the spatiotemporal animated sequences, define visual design parameters, and add interaction controls. Range Mapper illustrates major shifts in taxa distribution over the last 21 k years on all three continents. All workflows are publicly available on GitHub and Zenodo, allowing interested users to extend this approach to other taxa, regions, and times.

Species distribution modelling supports the study of past, present and future biogeographies

AbstractSpecies distribution modelling (SDM), also called environmental or ecological niche modelling, has developed over the last 30 years as a widely used tool used in core areas of biogeography including historical biogeography, studies of diversity patterns, studies of species ranges, ecoregional classification, conservation assessment and projecting future global change impacts. In the 50th anniversary year of Journal of Biogeography, I reflect on developments in species distribution modelling, illustrate how embedded the methodology has become in all areas of biogeography and speculate on future directions in the field. Challenges to species distribution modelling raised in this journal in 2006 have been addressed to a significant degree. Those challenges are clarification of the niche concept; improved sample design for species occurrence data; model parameterization; predictor selection; assessing model performance and transferability; and integrating correlative and process models of species distributions. SDM is used, often in conjunction with other evidence, to understand past species range dynamics, identify patterns and drivers of biological diversity, identify drivers of species range limits, define and delineate ecoregions, estimate the distributions of biodiversity elements in relation to protected status and to prioritize conservation action, and to forecast species range shifts in response to climate change and other global change scenarios. Areas of progress in SDM that may become more widely accessible and useful tools in biogeography include genetically informed models and community distribution models.

Cascading benefits of mutualists' predators on foundation species: A model inspired by coral reef ecosystems

AbstractMultispecies mutualisms are embedded in a network of interactions that include predation, yet the effects of predation on mutualism function have not been well integrated into mutualism theory. Where predators have been considered, the common prediction is that predators reduce mutualist abundance and, as a consequence, decrease service provision. Here, we use a mathematical model of a predatory fish that consumes two competing coral mutualists to show that predators can also have indirect positive effects on hosts when they preferentially consume competitively dominant mutualists that are also lower in quality. In these cases, predation reverses the outcome of competition, allowing the higher quality mutualist to dominate and enhancing host performance. The direction and strength of predator effects depend on asymmetries in mutualist competition, service provision, and predation vulnerability. Our findings suggest that when the strength of predation shifts (e.g., due to exploitative harvest of top predators, introduction of new species, or range shifts in response to climate change), mutualist communities will exhibit dynamic responses with nonmonotonic effects on host service provision.

A manager's guide to using eDNA metabarcoding in marine ecosystems.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is a powerful tool that can enhance marine ecosystem/biodiversity monitoring programs. Here we outline five important steps managers and researchers should consider when developing eDNA monitoring program: (1) select genes and primers to target taxa; (2) assemble or develop comprehensive barcode reference databases; (3) apply rigorous site occupancy based decontamination pipelines; (4) conduct pilot studies to define spatial and temporal variance of eDNA; and (5) archive samples, extracts, and raw sequence data. We demonstrate the importance of each of these considerations using a case study of eDNA metabarcoding in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. eDNA metabarcoding approaches detected 94.1% (16/17) of species observed in paired trawl surveys while identifying an additional 55 native fishes, providing more comprehensive biodiversity inventories. Rigorous benchmarking of eDNA metabarcoding results improved ecological interpretation and confidence in species detections while providing archived genetic resources for future analyses. Well designed and validated eDNA metabarcoding approaches are ideally suited for biomonitoring applications that rely on the detection of species, including mapping invasive species fronts and endangered species habitats as well as tracking range shifts in response to climate change. Incorporating these considerations will enhance the utility and efficacy of eDNA metabarcoding for routine biomonitoring applications.

Limited movement of an avian hybrid zone in relation to regional variation in magnitude of climate change.

Studies of natural hybrid zones can provide documentation of range shifts in response to climate change and identify loci important to reproductive isolation. Using a temporal (36-38 years) comparison of the black-capped (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina (P. carolinensis) chickadee hybrid zone, we investigated movement of the western portion of the zone (western Missouri) and assessed whether loci and pathways underpinning reproductive isolation were similar to those in the eastern portion of the hybrid zone. Using 92 birds sampled along the hybrid zone transect in 2016 and 68 birds sampled between 1978 and 1980, we generated 11,669 SNPs via ddRADseq. These SNPs were used to assess movement of the hybrid zone through time and to evaluate variation in introgression among loci. We demonstrate that the interface has moved ~5km to the northwest over the last 36-38 years, that is, at only one-fifth the rate at which the eastern portion (e.g., Pennsylvania, Ohio) of the hybrid zone has moved. Temperature trends over the last 38 years reveal that eastern areas have warmed 50% more than western areas in terms of annual mean temperature, possibly providing an explanation for the slower movement of the hybrid zone in Missouri. Our results suggest hybrid zone movement in broadly distributed species, such as chickadees, will vary between areas in response to local differences in the impacts of climate change.

Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions

AbstractAimAnticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large‐scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range‐wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring.LocationWestern United States.Major taxa studiedTwo pinyon pine (Pinus spp.) and three juniper (Juniperus spp.) species.MethodsWe developed range‐wide demographic models for five species using forest inventory data from across the western United States and estimated population trends and climate vulnerability.ResultsWe find that four of the five species are declining in parts of their range, with Pinus edulis having the largest proportion of populations declining (24%). Population vulnerability increases with aridity and temperature, with up to ~50% of populations declining in the warmest and driest conditions. Mortality and recruitment were both essential to explaining where populations are declining.Main conclusionsOur results suggest that dry forest species are undergoing an active range shift driven by both changing recruitment and mortality, and that increasing temperatures and drought threaten the long‐term viability of many of these species in their current range. While four of the five species examined were experiencing some declines, P. edulis is currently most vulnerable. Management actions such as reducing tree density may be able to mitigate some of these impacts. The framework we present to estimate range‐wide demographic rates can be applied to other species to determine where range contractions are most likely.

Greater sage‐grouse habitat selection varies across the marginal habitat of its lagging range margin

AbstractStudying wildlife–habitat relationships at the edges of their range can provide valuable insights into the environmental factors limiting wildlife distributions and most likely to drive extirpations and range shifts in response to landscape change. Yet the relative impact of those factors is likely different along the range margin, so it is important to identify the limitations to suitable habitat at both regional and local scales. Some of the most drastic impacts of large‐scale landscape changes in North America have occurred and are forecasted in the sagebrush steppe ecosystems, where species unable to seek new habitat in the fragmented landscape will be vulnerable to climatic extremes, vegetation community shifts, and anthropogenic land use change. One of the species likely under major threat from landscape changes is the greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a sagebrush obligate with habitat constraints that make it susceptible to habitat loss impacts as sagebrush systems contract and fragment at their southern range margin, already naturally fragmented. In this study, we evaluated factors of topography and land cover directly impacting habitat selection by sage‐grouse in four study areas along their lagging range edge. We used >116,000 GPS locations from >90 grouse across four study areas in southern Utah and Nevada from 2014 to 2020 in habitat selection analyses using random forest models. Our results showed that sage‐grouse exploit topography and sagebrush cover, possibly to break predator sight lines and moderate the risk posed by avian predators using tree perches, complicating the effects of tree cover and conifer encroachment into sagebrush habitat. We found similar trends across all four study areas, suggesting sage‐grouse along the southern range margin face similar limitations. However, the effects were nonlinear and varied—models trained in one study area were only moderately successful at predicting selection in others. The local idiosyncrasies along this southern range margin indicate a need for place‐based conservation for sage‐grouse and other potentially imperiled species. Incorporating new understandings of local impacts will refine regional and range‐wide models and support efforts to effectively create habitat and plan for range shifts by vulnerable species in response to environmental change.

Two-Sex Demography, Sexual Niche Differentiation, and the Geographic Range Limits of Texas Bluegrass (Poa arachnifera).

AbstractUnderstanding the mechanisms that generate biogeographic range limits is a long-standing goal of ecology. It is widely hypothesized that distributional limits reflect the environmental niche, but this hypothesis is complicated by the potential for intraspecific niche heterogeneity. In dioecious species, sexual niche differentiation may cause divergence between the sexes in their limits of environmental suitability. We studied range boundary formation in Texas bluegrass (Poa arachnifera), a perennial dioecious plant, testing the alternative hypotheses that range limits reflect the niche limits of females only versus the combined contributions of females and males, including their interdependence via mating. Common garden experiments across a longitudinal aridity gradient revealed female-biased flowering approaching eastern range limits, suggesting that mate limitation may constrain the species' distribution. However, a demographic model showed that declines in λ approaching range limits were driven almost entirely by female vital rates. The dominant role of females was attributable to seed viability being robust to sex ratio variation and to low sensitivity of λ to reproductive transitions. We suggest that female-dominant range limits may be common to long-lived species with polygamous mating systems and that female responses to environmental drivers may often be sufficient for predicting range shifts in response to environmental change.

Competition mediates understorey species range shifts under climate change

Abstract Biological communities are reshuffling owing to species range shifts in response to climate change. This process inherently leads to novel assemblages of interacting species. Yet, how climatic change and local dynamics in biotic interactions jointly affect range shifts is still poorly understood. We combine a unique long‐term transplant competition‐exclusion experiment with species distribution models (SDMs) to test the effects of biotic interactions on understorey species range shifts under climate change in European temperate forests. Using a time series of 18 years of individual‐level demographic data of four common understorey plant species transplanted beyond their cold range edge to plots with and without interspecific competition, we built integral projection models (IPMs) and analysed the effects of competition on five key vital rates and population growth (λ). We assessed the results of the transplant experiment in the context of the modelled species' current and future potential distributions. We find that species' population performances in the transplant experiment decreased with lower predicted habitat suitability from the SDMs. The population performance at the transplant sites was mediated by biotic interactions with the local plant community: for two species with intermediate levels of predicted habitat suitability at the transplant sites, competition effects could explicitly differentiate between net population growth (λ > 1) or shrinkage (λ < 1). Synthesis. Our findings contest the long‐standing idea that at cold range edges, mainly abiotic factors structure species' distributions. We conclude that biotic interactions, through acting on local population dynamics, may impact species distributions at the continental scale. Hence, predicting climate‐change impacts on biodiversity redistributions ultimately requires us to also integrate dynamics in biotic interactions.

Rapid decline and fragmentation of the distribution of an enigmatic small carnivore, the Owston’s Civet, in response to future climate change

Indochina is known as one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots, with populations of many endangered and/or endemic species dramatically declining due to a range of threats, such as illegal hunting, habitat destruction, and global climate change. Climate change is expected to alter the region’s habitat and ecosystem conditions, force contraction of species ranges, and increase the likelihood of local extinctions. Maxent is a widely used modelling approach to predict the species’ current potential distribution, project range shifts in response to climate change, and inform conservation planning. Here, we collated known records and built models for both present and future climatically suitable habitat of the Owston’s Civet (Chrotogale owstoni), an endangered and poorly studied small carnivore occurring in Vietnam, eastern Laos, and a small part of southern China. Projections of climatically suitable habitat for the civet in most climate change scenarios and timeframes suggest significant habitat loss and fragmentation within its current range as a consequence of upward contraction. We recommend that future conservation efforts for C. owstoni focus on key refugia spreading along the Annamite Range in the border area between Vietnam and Laos. To mitigate climate-related extinction risk, close cooperation between Vietnam and Laos’ governmental agencies, research institutions, and non-governmental conservation organizations will play an important role in conserving the remaining habitat of this endangered species.

Dynamic species interactions associated with the range-shifting marine gastropod Mexacanthina lugubris

Globally, species are undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. However, the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts are not well understood. In southern California, the predatory whelk Mexacanthina lugubris has undergone a northward range shift of more than 100 km in the past four decades. We traced the history of the whelk’s range shift and assessed potential effects using an integrated approach, consisting of field surveys, as well as feeding and thermotolerance experiments. We found that at sites where Mexacanthina and native species co-occurred, native whelks distributions peaked lower in the intertidal. In laboratory experiments, we found that the presence of Mexacanthina led to reduced growth in native whelks (Acanthinucella spirata). Additionally, the range-shifting whelk was able to tolerate higher temperatures than common native species (A. spirata and Nucella emarginata), suggesting further impacts as a result of climate warming. Many species are likely to undergo range shifts as a coping mechanism for changing climatic conditions. However, communities are unlikely to shift as a whole due to species-specific responses. By studying the impacts of range-shifting species, like Mexacanthina, we can better understand how climate change will alter existing community structure and composition.

MIXED EVIDENCE FOR NICHE CONSERVATISM IN MOUNTAIN BEAVER (APLODONTIA RUFA) LINEAGES

Range shifts in response to past climatic changes have been documented in a variety of species and have often resulted in the isolation of relict populations. Understanding how these isolated populations develop local adaptations or maintain their historic climatic niche is crucial to creating effective management plans in the face of current climate change. While Mountain Beavers (Aplodontia rufa) have endured through major climatic shifts in the past, they maintain physiological constraints that limit their distribution to cool, humid climates. Increasing temperatures since the last glacial maximum likely had a strong influence in reducing their range. The species now persists as 5 genetically distinct clades, but it is not clear to what extent climatic differences have driven genetic isolation compared to other factors like topography. We compared species-distribution models (SDMs) for the 5 clades of Mountain Beaver to understand whether this species tends towards niche conservatism or adapts to local climates. Presence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility were divided into clades and combined with climatic layers from BioClim to develop SDMs for each clade. Niche overlap was then compared to genetic relatedness between all pairings of clades. High temperatures were a limiting factor in distribution for all clades and, despite a low level of niche overlap at broad scales, Mountain Beavers appeared to display some level of niche conservatism. These landscape level SDMs showed that some clades do exist in a warmer climate than other Mountain Beavers; however, fine-scale models for the Point Arena subspecies suggested they persist by selecting the coolest places within that range. This suggests that niche overlap between clades may be higher than what is detected at the coarser scale. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms limiting the distribution of these subspecies.