Random Intercept Cross-lagged Panel Model Research Articles

Cascading Effects of the Family Context in Adolescence: Implications for Young Adult Antisocial Behavior and Intergenerational Transmission of Risk.

Inspired by the tremendous impact of Robert McMahon's career, this study evaluated an intergenerational cascade model in which young adult conduct problems may serve as a risk pathway linking generation 1 (G1) parenting and family climate in adolescence with generation 2 parenting quality and family climate with their children (G2-G3). Our sample included 396 parents (Mage = 28.3; 70% women; child Mage = 3.96, 48% girls) who have participated in the PROSPER study since they were in 6th grade. Our developmental model included a random intercept cross-lagged panel model assessing bidirectional relations between family climate and effective discipline, assessed over six measurement occasions from 6th through 10th grade (G1). In turn, random intercepts for family climate and effective discipline in adolescence predicted distal outcomes: young adult antisocial behavior (assessed at ages 20, 23, and 25) and G2-G3 parenting quality (warm, lax, harsh, and abusive parenting) and family-level (cohesion, conflict, routines) functioning. Cross-lagged analyses revealed a bidirectional relation between G1 family processes: in early adolescence, higher levels of a positive family climate were associated with increases in effective discipline; in middle adolescence, the direction of effects reversed, with effective discipline predicting increases in positive family climate. In terms of cascading effects, a more positive G1 family climate was associated with reduced risk for young adult antisocial behavior, but no effect was evident for G1 effective discipline. Antisocial behavior was linked with all three aspects of G2-G3 family climate and with lower levels of parental warmth. Direct, domain-specific intergenerational links were found for G1 family climate with G2-G3 family-level functioning and G1 effective discipline with more effective G2-G3 parenting.

Early life social conditions and adverse experiences are associated with childhood BMI and perceived overeating.

Early life socioeconomic disadvantage and adverse experiences may lead to overeating, which is in turn associated with increased body mass index (BMI). However, recent evidence indicated that the association between childhood BMI and overeating might be bidirectional. This bidirectionality prompts the need for further investigation of early life predictors of BMI in childhood. To longitudinally assess the directionality of the association between childhood BMI and perceived overeating and to investigate their antecedent early life predictors. The sample included data from 5151 children from the ELSPAC study, collected between 18 months and 11 years of child age. The outcomes were child BMI and mother-reported overeating, assessed at the age of 3, 5, 7 and 11 years. Predictors included maternal BMI, maternal education, single parenthood, financial difficulties and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) reported by parents and paediatricians. The random intercept cross-lagged panel model was applied. The mean child's BMI at age 3 was 15.59 kg/m2 and increased to 17.86 kg/m2 at age 11. The percentage of parent-reported overeating increased in the following period, from about 12% at age 3 to 17% at age 11. The results showed temporal stability in perceived overeating and BMI, with a bidirectional relationship strengthening over time. The child's BMI was associated with maternal BMI. Maternal BMI was positively associated with child-perceived overeating, but a stronger effect was found for ACEs. ACEs mediated the impact of maternal education, financial difficulties and single parenthood on overeating. We observed stable bidirectional associations between BMI and perceived overeating. The results indicated two main pathways: one linked to maternal BMI and early childhood BMI increase followed by perceived overeating and the second associated with ACEs mediating the effect of early childhood social factors on perceived overeating, leading to gradual BMI gain.

Fears of positive and negative evaluation and their within-person associations with emotion regulation in adolescence: A longitudinal analysis.

Fear of positive evaluation (FPE) has recently emerged as an important aspect of social anxiety, alongside fear of negative evaluation. These evaluation fears peak during adolescence, a developmental stage that is also often accompanied by difficulties in emotion regulation, thereby increasing young individuals' vulnerability to mental disorders, such as social anxiety. We aimed to examine the longitudinal within-person associations between fears of evaluation, social anxiety, and three emotion regulation strategies (i.e., acceptance, suppression, rumination) in adolescents. Data were collected from a sample of 684 adolescents through an online survey three times over the course of 6 months and were analyzed using random intercept cross-lagged panel models. At the between-person level, FPE was linked to all three emotion regulation strategies, whereas fear of negative evaluation and social anxiety were associated with acceptance and rumination. At the within-person level, difficulties in accepting emotions predicted FPE, suppression predicted social anxiety, and social anxiety predicted rumination over time. These findings reveal complex interdependencies between emotion regulation, social anxiety, and evaluation fears, both reflecting individual differences and predicting changes within individuals, and further elucidate the developmental trajectory of social anxiety in adolescence.

Depressive symptoms and goal pursuit: Between-person and reciprocal within-person effects in a multi-wave longitudinal study.

Depressive symptoms, goal progress, and goal characteristics are interrelated, but the directionality of these relationships is unclear. In a 6-wave longitudinal study (N = 431; 2002 total surveys), we examine the bidirectionality of the relationships between depressive symptoms, goal characteristics (commitment, self-efficacy, and perception of other's support), and goal progress for academic and interpersonal goals at 2-week intervals. Separate random-intercept cross-lagged panel models were tested for each goal characteristic across both goals. At the within-person level, goal progress significantly positively predicted commitment, self-efficacy, and perception of others' support for the goal. Most of the other hypothesized paths were nonsignificant, including paths between depressive symptoms and progress. At the between-person level, all variables were significantly correlated, with some effects significantly larger for the interpersonal than the academic goal. The results suggest that when it comes to depressive symptoms and goal pursuit, general tendencies may be more important than variations over 2-week intervals.

Bidirectional relationships between chronotype and sleep hygiene in children with and without parental history of alcohol use disorder

Study objectivesChildren with evening chronotype may be at risk for insufficient sleep because their chronotype makes it difficult to sustain healthy sleep habits. We evaluated bidirectional relationships between chronotype and sleep hygiene. MethodsTwo hundred forty-six children (n = 246 at T1, n = 200 at T2, n = 147 at T3), with a mean age of 9.9 (SD=1.4) at T1, participated in a longitudinal study on sleep and substance use. Participants either had a parental history of alcohol use disorder or were matched controls. The Adolescent Sleep Hygiene Scale measured sleep hygiene. Chronotype was measured using the Morningness/Eveningness Questionnaire. We used random intercept cross-lagged panel models to examine longitudinal relations between chronotype and sleep hygiene across three time points, each approximately 1 year apart. ResultsChronotype at T1 predicted sleep hygiene at T2 (b=0.38, p < .05). Chronotype at T2 predicted sleep hygiene at T3 (b=0.38, p < .05). T1 Sleep Hygiene predicted chronotype at T2 (b=0.27, p < .05). T2 Sleep Hygiene predicted chronotype at T3 (b=0.24, p < .05). Chronotype also predicted itself over time (T1-T2: b=0.31, p < .05; T2-T3: b=0.31, p < .05). Sleep hygiene did not predict itself at future time points. Parental history of alcohol use disorder did not predict sleep hygiene or chronotype. ConclusionsThere is a bidirectional relationship between chronotype and sleep hygiene; more eveningness predicts poorer sleep hygiene at a later time point, and poorer sleep hygiene predicts more eveningness later. Sleep hygiene is not stable over time and may be a more modifiable target for public health interventions than chronotype.

Longitudinal Interactions between Problematic Internet Gaming and Symptoms of Depression Among University Students: Differentiating Anhedonia and Depressed Mood

Background/Objective: This study examines the interplay between problematic internet gaming (PIG) and depressive symptoms among university students, specifically anhedonia and depressed mood. Prior studies lacked distinction between these symptoms and had limited follow-ups. Method: The three-wave longitudinal study analyzed data from 1,720 university students (with an average age of 20 years and 49 % being female) using a random intercept cross-lagged panel model, which distinguished between-person and within-person effects. Results: At the between-person level, PIG was positively associated with two depressive symptoms. At the within-person level, PIG positively predicted future anhedonia. Besides, depressed mood positively predicted future PIG. Conclusions: Our results have identified PIG as a risk factor for anhedonia and depressed mood as a risk factor for PIG among university students.

The temporal sequence and reciprocal relationships of frailty, social isolation and loneliness in older adults across 21years.

It is unclear whether social isolation and loneliness may precede frailty status or whether frailty may precipitate social isolation and loneliness. We investigated the reciprocal and temporal sequence of social isolation, loneliness, and frailty among older adults across 21years. We used seven waves of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam from 2302 Dutch older adults (M = 72.6years, SD = 8.6, 52.1% female) ages 55 or older. Using random intercept cross-lagged panel models, we investigated between- and within-person associations of social isolation and loneliness with frailty. Frailty was measured using the Frailty Index. Loneliness was measured using the 11-item De Jong Gierveld Loneliness Scale. Social isolation was measured using a multi-domain 6-item scale. Social isolation and loneliness were weakly correlated across waves. At the between-person level, individuals with higher levels of frailty tended to have higher levels of social isolation but not loneliness. At the within-person level, the cross-lagged paths indicated that earlier frailty status predicted future social isolation and loneliness over time. However, prior social isolation was not associated with subsequent frailty except at time point 5 (T5). Loneliness at specific time points (T1, T4 and T6) predicted greater frailty at later time points (T2, T5 and T7). The results also supported reciprocal and contemporaneous relations between social isolation, loneliness and frailty. Social isolation and loneliness are potential outcomes of frailty. Public health policies and health practitioners should prioritise interventions targeting social connection among older adults with pre-frailty or frailty.

Bidirectional changes in depressive symptoms and social functioning in older adults attending psychological therapy services

BackgroundImpairments in the ability to carry out social activities commonly co-occurs alongside depression. Improving social functioning is often overlooked in treatment. This is despite the high value placed by patients on social functioning and the potential for interventions focused on social functioning to have additional benefits in reducing depressive symptoms. In older adults the relationship between depressive symptoms and social functioning during treatment is poorly understood. MethodsWe analysed data across the first four treatment sessions of 3260 older adults receiving psychological therapy for depression at eight NHS Talking Therapies for anxiety and depression services in England. Analyses were random-intercept cross-lagged panel models, modelling bi-directional change between depressive symptoms, and impairments in (a) social leisure activities, and (b) close relationships, controlling for gender and diagnosis. ResultsOver treatment sessions, depressive symptoms and impairments in social functioning decreased. A bi-directional relationship was observed whereby depressive symptoms were associated with future impairments in social functioning and vice versa. Changes in depressive symptoms appeared to have a greater association with future social functioning, compared to the reverse. LimitationsPatients lived in Greater London and findings may not translate to other settings. We included older adults that attended at least four treatment sessions, and had no missing data at the first assessment, potentially biasing the sample and results. ConclusionsOlder adults receiving psychological therapy experience reductions in depressive symptoms and impairment in social functioning early in treatment. Treating core depressive symptoms and impairments in social functioning may benefit one another, and improve outcomes.

Self-efficacy inertia: The role of competency beliefs and academic burden in achievement

The effort to translate self-efficacy theory into statistical models has been argued to model out the complex, dynamic nature of the interaction between the person and the environment. This study aimed to understand how self-efficacy (belief in one’s abilities) and academic burden (the external challenges students face in their studies) relate to academic performance over time and whether modeling both between and within subject variance components provides a more comprehensive perspective that is better aligned with theory. Self-efficacy and academic burden were collected at five time points, one month apart from undergraduate students (N = 443) enrolled in an online biology class. The data were fit to four models: 1) a standard cross lagged panel model (CLPM), 2) a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM), 3) an RI-CLPM in which grade was regressed on the random-intercepts, and 4) an RI-CLPM in which grade was regressed on the random-intercepts and the within-person fluctuations. The RI-CLPM was a better fit to the data over the CLPM, indicating that separating effects that are attributed to individual differences from within-person effects appears to better capture the reciprocal relationships between self-efficacy and academic burden. Further, when only the general tendencies of self-efficacy and academic burden were specified to predict final grade, there was a significant positive relationship between self-efficacy and grades. However, when within-person variations over time were added as predictors in addition to the between-person differences, this general relationship lost significance. These findings suggest that gaining self-efficacy momentum in a class is perhaps more predictive of academic achievement than having a general tendency towards confidence in one’s abilities relative to peers.

Childhood maltreatment, social connectedness, and depression: A prospective analysis of trajectories over time.

Childhood maltreatment is associated with a range of negative social and psychological outcomes at different developmental stages. Using data from a prospective longitudinal study of the consequences of childhood maltreatment, we examine whether childhood maltreatment predicts lower levels of social connectedness and more depression symptoms over a 30-year time period and examine the directionality of the trajectories from childhood into middle adulthood. Children (ages 0-11 years) with documented histories of maltreatment and demographically matched controls were followed into adulthood across four waves: 1989-1995 (n = 1,196; Mage = 29.2 years, SD = 3.9), 2000-2002 (n = 896; Mage = 39.5 years, SD = 3.6), 2003-2005 (n = 808; Mage = 41.2 years, SD = 3.6), and 2009-2010 (n = 649; Mage = 47.0 years, SD = 3.5). Social connectedness and depressive symptoms were measured at all four time points. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models were used to estimate bidirectional relationships between social connectedness and depression symptoms and the extent to which the trajectories differed for the maltreated and control groups. Individuals with documented histories of childhood maltreatment generally had significantly lower levels of social connectedness and higher levels of depression compared to matched controls. Depression was associated with lower levels of social connectedness concurrently at ages 39, 41, and 47. Depression predicted lower social connectedness, and social connectedness predicted lower depression in middle adulthood, but not young adulthood. Better understanding of the long-term impact of childhood maltreatment on social connectedness and depression has implications for designing effective interventions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Will the Dark Triad Engender Psychopathological Symptoms or Vice Versa? A Three-Wave Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis.

The Dark Triad (DT), including narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy, represents the dark side of human nature and has been related to psychopathological symptoms (e.g., depression, anxiety, and stress). However, little is known about how the two constructs are related longitudinally. To fill this gap and to clarify the directionality between them, we conducted a longitudinal study. We measured DT traits and psychopathological symptoms in a large sample of university students (NT1 = 1815) annually for 3 years. We implemented random intercept cross-lagged panel models in analysis. Narcissism and psychopathological symptoms showed a reciprocal relationship at the within-person level: greater narcissism preceded a decline in psychopathological symptoms, while more severe symptoms preceded a decrease in narcissism. Within the same individual, increases in the DT, particularly psychopathy and Machiavellianism, were linked to concurrent escalations in the symptoms. Additionally, all DT traits were positively correlated with psychopathological symptoms as stable differences between individuals. This study constitutes an important step in clarifying the directionality between the DT and psychopathological symptoms, and advances our understanding of the interplay between these two constructs at both the between-person and within-person levels.

The development of morphological awareness and vocabulary: What influences what?

Abstract The awareness of words’ morphological structure has been thought to allow generalizing meaning to other, similarly constructed words. Conversely, a large vocabulary is thought to facilitate the recognition of words’ morphological regularities, thereby contributing to morphological awareness. For this reason, morphological awareness and vocabulary have been suggested to be reciprocally associated across development. We followed 242 (girls = 119) Norwegian preschoolers (Mage = 5.5 years) from preschool through Grade 2 and examined the cross-lagged relations between morphological awareness (inflections and derivations) and vocabulary (receptive and expressive). Our results confirm that the traditional cross-lagged panel model shows significant cross-lagged relations between morphological awareness and vocabulary, as previous studies have shown. However, no cross-lagged relations were found when we accounted for longitudinal measured stability through a cross-lagged panel model with lag-2 paths or unmeasured stability through the random intercept cross-lagged panel model. We found that approximately 50% of the variation in morphology and vocabulary was due to highly stable and invariant factors across grades. We discuss how the significant cross-lagged relations found in previous studies could have been due to their not accounting for the right type of stability when using longitudinal panel data.

Multidimensional frailty and sleep quality in late adulthood: A UK biobank examination.

Frailty and sleep disturbances are two major concerns in late adulthood, that not only profoundly threaten health and wellbeing at the individual level but place enormous demands on our healthcare systems. Given that both constructs represent dynamic states that are preventable and reversible, understanding the potential pathways to and effects of these variables on one another is critical in providing effective and tailored support. However, despite growing interest in the relationship between sleep and frailty, only one study to date has directly explored their potential bidirectionality. Accordingly, this study was designed to extend the current understanding by investigating the reciprocal relationship of frailty and sleep quality at the multidimensional level. Specifically, the bidirectionality of these relationships was considered separately for physical, psychological, cognitive, and social frailty. Four random-intercept cross-lagged panel models with three time points were conducted, using 3192 older adults (Mage = 60.21; 46.37% female at baseline) from the UK Biobank. The results revealed that while physical, psychological, and cognitive frailty were neither predictive of, nor predicted by, sleep quality, social frailty and sleep share a reciprocal relationship. These data therefore offer important preliminary evidence for the efficacy of early intervention and prevention strategies aimed at enhancing sleep quality to reduce social frailty, and vice versa.

The Interplay Between Personal Identity and Social Identity Among Vocational High School Students: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study

AbstractAlthough identity research has predominantly focused on college-bound adolescents, it has largely neglected vocational high school students who enter the job market immediately after graduation. Furthermore, most studies have concentrated on personal identity and have overlooked the concurrent development of social identity. This study examined the relationship between adolescents’ personal and social identities over three years of vocational high school. The participants were 4,264 vocational high school students in Japan (Time 1: 46.44% girls; Mage = 15.78). Using a random intercept cross-lagged panel model, the results indicated that within-person increases in social identity predicted increases in personal identity one year later. These findings highlight the importance of social identity as a valuable resource for personal identity development among vocational high school students, a group underrepresented in identity research.

Negative self-referent cognition predicts future depression symptom change: an intensive sampling approach

ABSTRACT Cognitive theories of depression assert that negative self-referent cognition has a causal role in the development and maintenance of depression symptoms, but few studies have examined temporal associations between these constructs using intensive, longitudinal sampling strategies. In three samples of undergraduate students, we examined associations between change in self-referent processing and depression across 5 daily assessments (Sample 1, N = 303, 1,194 measurements, 79% adherence), 7 daily assessments (Sample 2, N = 313, 1,784 measurements, 81% adherence), and 7 weekly assessments (Sample 3; N = 155, 833 measurements, 81% adherence). Random intercept cross-lagged panel models indicated large cross-lagged effects in two of the three samples (Samples 1 and 3 but not Sample 2), such that more negative self-referent thinking than usual was significantly associated with a subsequent increase in depression symptoms at the next time lag. Notably, change in depression from usual was not associated with increases in negative self-referent processing at the next time point in any sample. These findings suggest that change in negative self-referent processing may be causally linked to future increases in depression on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis, although confidence in this conclusion is tempered somewhat by a lack of replication in Sample 2.

Bidirectional association between perioperative skeletal muscle and subcutaneous fat in colorectal cancer patients and their prognostic significance.

Low skeletal muscle mass and high adipose tissue coexist across the body weight spectrum and independently predict the survival ratio of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This combination may lead to a mutually exacerbating vicious cycle. Tumor-associated metabolic conditions primarily affect subcutaneous adipose tissue, but the nature and direction of its relationship with skeletal muscle are unclear. This study aims to examine the bidirectional causal relationship between skeletal muscle index (SMI) and subcutaneous fat index (SFI) during the perioperative period in CRC patients; as well as to validate the association between perioperative SMI, SFI, and CRC prognosis. This population-based retrospective cohort study included patients with stage I-III colorectal cancer who underwent radical resection at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University between September 2012 and February 2019. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 1,448 patients were analyzed. Preoperative (P1), 2 months postoperative (P2), and 5 months postoperative (P3) CT scans were collected to evaluate the skeletal muscle index (SMI; muscle area at the third lumbar vertebra divided by height squared) and subcutaneous fat index (SFI; subcutaneous fat area at the third lumbar vertebra divided by height squared). A random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) was used to examine the intra-individual relationship between SMI and SFI, and Cox regression was employed to assess the association between SMI, SFI, recurrence-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS). The median age at diagnosis was 59.00 years (IQR: 51.00-66.00), and 587 patients (40.54%) were female. RI-CLPM analysis revealed a negative correlation between SFI and subsequent SMI at the individual level: P1-P2 (β = -0.372, p = 0.038) and P2-P3 (β = -0.363, p = 0.001). SMI and SFI showed a negative correlation during P1-P2 (β = -0.363, p = 0.001) but a positive correlation during P2-P3 (β = 0.357, p = 0.006). No significant correlation was found between the random intercepts of SFI and SMI at the between-person level (r = 0.157, p = 0.603). The Cox proportional hazards multivariate regression model identified that patients with elevated SFI had poorer recurrence-free survival (HR, 1.24; 95% CI: 1.00-1.55). Compared to patients with normal preoperative SMI and SFI, those with low SMI or high SFI had poorer recurrence-free survival (HR, 1.26; 95% CI: 1.03-1.55) and overall survival (HR, 1.39; 95% CI: 1.04-1.87). However, no significant association between SMI and SFI and the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients was observed postoperatively. In CRC patients, preoperative muscle loss leads to postoperative fat accumulation, exacerbating muscle loss in a feedback loop. Elevated preoperative SFI predicts poorer survival outcomes. Monitoring SMI and SFI is crucial as prognostic indicators, despite non-significant postoperative associations. Further research is needed to improve patient outcomes.

Self-Esteem and Sexual Experiences.

There is evidence that people with higher self-esteem tend to have more satisfying sexual relationships, but little is known about how changes in people's self-esteem and sexual experiences are related over time. Several theories predict reciprocal effects between self-esteem and sexual experiences. The present study tested these theories using 12-wave longitudinal data from more than 11,000 participants of a representative sample in Germany. Data were analyzed using Random Intercept Cross-lagged Panel Models. Results indicated significant between-person associations between stable levels of self-esteem and both the frequency and the quality of sexual experiences. Moreover, we found reciprocal within-person transactions between self-esteem and sexual satisfaction but not sexual frequency. Overall, the present pattern of results provides evidence for theories that consider self-esteem as both a source and consequence of intimate sexual relationships.

Whether and How Family Functioning Relates to the Development of Self-Compassion and Emotion Regulation in Chinese Migrant Children? A Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Analysis.

Given the heightened difficulties in social adjustment and the potential diminishment of social networks encountered by migrant children, family functioning may play a crucial role in their development. Existing research has highlighted the significance of family environment in shaping adolescent self-compassion and emotion regulation, which can serve as protective factors against adverse emotional outcomes. However, there remains a lack of comparative studies to examine the specific effects of family functioning on fostering self-compassion and emotion regulation in both migrant and their non-migrant counterparts. The present study utilized a three-wave longitudinal design with 12-month intervals to examine the longitudinal effects of family functioning on self-compassion and emotion regulation, while also examining potential variations in these associations between migrant and non-migrant children. A total of 244 migrant children and 491 non-migrant children from a high school in Guangdong Province (357 females; Mage = 15.3 at Time 1, SDage = 0.53) participated in this study. Random-intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPMs) were utilized to examine the longitudinal associations among family functioning, self-compassion, and emotion regulation in both groups. The results showed that, at the within-person level, family functioning reciprocally predicted self-compassion over time among migrant children, and it also exerted an indirect effect on emotion regulation, mediated by self-compassion. Among non-migrant children, emotion regulation positively predicted self-compassion over time, with no other observed cross-lagged effects.

Longitudinal Associations between Future Time Perspective, Sleep Problems, and Depressive Symptoms among Chinese College Students: Between- and within-Person Effects.

Depressive symptoms and sleep problems are extremely prevalent in adolescence, and future time perspective has been found to be strongly associated with them. However, little is known about the longitudinal relationship and the temporal dynamics of future time perspective, sleep problems, and depressive symptoms. Moreover, it is unclear whether sleep problems mediate the associations between future time perspective and depressive symptoms. To address this gap, a one-year longitudinal study was performed using data collected at three waves from 622 Chinese college students (aged 17-22 years, Mage = 18.16, SD = 1.49, 46.95% males). The results of cross-lagged panel models showed a bidirectional relationship between future time perspective and depressive symptoms, and that sleep problems were a mediating mechanism for these relationships. The results of random intercept cross-lagged panel models showed that at the within-person level, the change of sleep problems and depressive symptoms significantly affected the development of future time perspective, but the reverse effect not significant. Moreover, sleep problems mediated the within-person effect of depressive symptoms on future time perspective. These findings deepen the understanding of the longitudinal relationship between future time perspective, sleep problems and depressive symptoms, and emphasize the important role of sleep health in adolescent mental health and future development.

A multigroup random-intercept cross-lagged panel model for Finnish secondary school students in frame of situated expectancy-value theory

The aim of this study is to examine both within-person and between-person associations of academic self-concept and task values in literacy and mathematics to identify the most promising motivational construct to prevent motivational decline during school transitions. The sample included 3636 students (average age at the start: 15.73 years, SD: 0.32 years) followed up three times from lower secondary school (T1) to the third year (T3) of upper secondary education, either in vocational or academic tracks. Multi-group random intercept cross-lagged panel models detected several spillover (cross-lagged) effects between self-concept and task values in mathematics but not in literacy. There were also marginal but significant differences between students from different educational tracks in both subjects. Overall, utility value and academic self-concept in mathematics were found to be the most promising motivational constructs in changing motivational beliefs, thus presenting important starting points in motivational interventions. Educational relevance and implications statementThis study highlights that spillover effects are more pronounced in maths than in literacy, emphasising the need for tailored interventions in mathematics education. Moreover, the potential disruption in students' motivational beliefs during school transitions suggests the importance of ensuring continuity in support to help mitigate the impact of these transitions. While our results indicate limited carryover effects, it is possible that school transitions are experienced as breaks in motivational development. The role of utility value in exhibiting spillover effects over school transitions in both maths and literacy suggests the significance of emphasising the practical relevance of academic subjects to sustain students' motivation. Additionally, recognising the superior role of academic self-concept in maths in spillover effects on task values underscores the importance of nurturing students' confidence and beliefs in their own mathematical abilities.