Random Neural Network Research Articles

System-wide vulnerability of multi-component software

In software systems comprised of many interconnected components, the vulnerability of each component will affect the vulnerability of other components and of the system as a whole. Existing techniques allow the quantification of the vulnerability of individual components taken singly, but the assessment of their vulnerability when they are interconnected or interdependent remains a challenge. The present work addresses this problem with a novel System-Wide Vulnerability Assessment (SWVA) framework for interconnected software components, based on an Associated Random Neural Network (ARNN) that estimates the system-wide vulnerability of all software components from known local vulnerabilities of individual components, and from their interconnections. The ARNN uses a problem-specific weight initialization, and learns from existing software system examples with a gradient-based deep learning algorithm. The ARNN is then used to assess the vulnerability of hitherto unseen software systems. The performance of the proposed ARNN-based SWVA framework is evaluated and compared against several well-known machine learning techniques on 13 different versions of a real-world software system with up to 11 components. The experimental results show the superior performance of the ARNN achieving above 85% median accuracy and good high scalability with respect to the number of connected software components.

Enhanced lithium‐ion battery state‐of‐charge estimation for Electric Vehicles using the AOA‐DNN approach

AbstractElectric vehicles (EVs) battery management systems (BMSs) rely on exact state of charge (SoC) estimations to guarantee efficient and safe operation. Lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs) are favored for EVs due to their extended lifespan, high energy density, and minimal self‐discharge and high voltage. To address these issues, this research propose a LIB SoC prediction based on an actual BMS in EVs. The main objective is improving SoC of LIB. The proposed hybrid strategy is the combined performance of both the dynamic neural networks (DNN) and arithmetic optimization algorithm (AOA). Commonly it is named as DNN‐AOA technique. The SoC of Lithium‐ion batteries are predicted using the DNN approach. The proposed AOA is used to optimize the weight parameter of DNN to enhance prediction accuracy and reliability. By then, the operational MATLAB platform has adopted the proposed framework, and existing procedures are used to compute its execution. The proposed method demonstrates superior existing like Bayesian network (DBN), random vector functional link neural network (RVFLNN) and Gaussian progress regression (GPR). The proposed method yields a lower error value of 0.1 and a higher accuracy value of 98% compared with other existing methods.

ICURE: Intensive care unit (ICU) risk evaluation for 30-day mortality. Developing and evaluating a multivariable machine learning prediction model for patients admitted to the general ICU in Sweden.

A prediction model that estimates mortality at admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) is of potential benefit to both patients and society. Logistic regression models like Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) and APACHE are the traditional ICU mortality prediction models. With the emergence of machine learning (machine learning) and artificial intelligence, new possibilities arise to create prediction models that have the potential to sharpen predictive accuracy and reduce the likelihood of misclassification in the prediction of 30-day mortality. We used the Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR) to identify and include all patients ≥18 years of age admitted to general ICUs in Sweden from 2008 to 2022 with SAPS 3 score registered. Only data collected within 1 h of ICU admission was used. We had 153 candidate predictors including baseline characteristics, previous medical conditions, blood works, physiological parameters, cause of admission, and initial treatment. We stratified the data randomly on the outcome variable 30-day mortality and created a training set (80% of data) and a test set (20% of data). We evaluated several hundred prediction models using multiple ML frameworks including random forest, gradient boosting, neural networks, and logistic regression models. Model performance was evaluated by comparing the receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC-ROC). The best performing model was fine-tuned by optimizing hyperparameters. The model's calibration was evaluated by a calibration belt. Ultimately, we simplified the best performing model with the top 1-20 predictors. We included 296,344 first-time ICU admissions. We found age, Glasgow Coma Scale, creatinine, systolic blood pressure, and pH being the most important predictors. The AUC-ROC was 0.884 in test data using all predictors, specificity 95.2%, sensitivity 47.0%, negative predictive value of 87.9% and positive predictive value of 70.7%. The final model showed excellent calibration. The ICU risk evaluation for 30-day mortality (ICURE) prediction model performed equally well to the SAPS 3 score with only eight variables and improved further with the addition of more variables. The ICURE prediction model predicts 30-day mortality rate at first-time ICU admission superiorly compared to the established SAPS 3 score.

A Hybrid Traditional and Machine Learning-Based Stacking-Based Ensemble Forecasting Approach for Coal Price Prediction

Accurate coal price forecasts are crucial, as volatility in coal prices significantly impacts company performance and profitability. Traditional time series forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing, are known for their simplicity and low data requirements. In contrast, machine learning techniques, such as random forest and neural network, offer higher accuracy in predictions. However, very few attempts have been made to combine the simplicity of traditional methods with the accuracy of machine learning techniques. This paper presents a novel stacking-based model that integrates both traditional statistical methods and machine learning techniques to enhance coal price predictions. Using Indonesian coal price data from January 2009 to October 2021, we trained the models on various combinations of predictors to generate new predictions. Our findings demonstrate that our stacking-based model outperforms other models, with RMSE and MAPE values of 6.44 and 5.97%, respectively. These results indicate that the model closely forecasts actual coal prices, capturing 94.03% of the price movements. The main contribution of this study is the application of stacking-based models to coal price forecasting in Indonesia, which has not been previously explored, thus enriching the literature on this topic.

Advancing macroeconomic models through artificial intelligence integration

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into macroeconomic models marks a significant evolution in the field of economic forecasting and analysis. Traditional macroeconomic models, often constrained by linear assumptions and a limited set of variables, struggle to accurately capture the complexities of the global economy. This paper explores how AI, particularly machine learning algorithms like Random Forests and Neural Networks, enhances these models by processing and interpreting vast and diverse datasets, including unstructured data such as social media sentiment and news analysis. AI's capability to adapt and learn from new data enables dynamic models that remain relevant and accurate amidst changing economic conditions. By addressing non-linearities and enhancing model robustness, AI provides a more nuanced understanding of economic dynamics, uncovering intricate patterns missed by traditional analyses. The implications of AI-enhanced macroeconomic models are profound, offering more reliable foundations for economic research and policy-making. This paper argues that the integration of AI into economic modeling not only improves the precision of economic forecasts but also enriches the field of economic research and the formulation of more effective policy interventions. Through examples such as inflation rate forecasting and the identification of complex, non-linear economic relationships, this study highlights the transformative potential of AI in macroeconomic analysis and policy formulation.

Enhancing Talent Recruitment in Business Intelligence Systems: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models

In the competitive field of business intelligence, optimizing talent recruitment through data-driven methodologies is crucial for better decision-making. This study compares the effectiveness of various machine learning models to improve recruitment accuracy and efficiency. Using the recruitment data from a major Yemeni organization (2019–2022), we evaluated models including K-Nearest Neighbors, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Naive Bayes, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Classifier, AdaBoost Classifier, and Neural Networks. Hyperparameter tuning and cross-validation were used for optimization. The Random Forest model achieved the highest accuracy (92.8%), followed by Neural Networks (92.6%) and Gradient Boosting Classifier (92.5%). These results suggest that advanced machine learning models, particularly Random Forest and Neural Networks, can significantly enhance the recruitment processes in business intelligence systems. This study provides valuable insights for recruiters, advocating for the integration of sophisticated machine learning techniques in talent acquisition strategies.

AI-based IoT attack filtering methods in the context of connected vehicles

With the rapid development of connected vehicle technology, the volume of data generated in the context of connected vehicles is exhibiting an exponential growth trend compared to the traditional automotive industry. This data is closely related to the security of connected vehicles. However, if threats such as malicious intrusions, information tampering, and data theft cannot be effectively resisted, they will pose significant risks and hazards to users, the entire automotive industry, and society. Therefore, researching and implementing security measures for connected vehicles becomes crucial to ensure the sustainable development and widespread application of connected vehicle technology. In this regard, this paper proposes an optimized IoT attack filtering method based on random forest and neural network algorithms in deep learning to predict and filter malicious attacks. The CICIOT2023 dataset is used for training and evaluation, and results are analyzed based on accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 scores. A comparison between models constructed using random forest and neural networks reveals that while both perform similarly in terms of accuracy and precision, the model built with neural networks significantly outperforms random forest in terms of recall and F1 score. Therefore, for IoT attack filtering methods targeted at connected vehicle scenarios, the algorithm using neural networks for attack identification and filtering is recommended, as it can better protect the confidentiality and security of data in connected vehicle scenarios, ensuring user driving safety and safeguarding societal transportation security.

MRI-based radiomics signatures for preoperative prediction of Ki-67 index in primary central nervous system lymphoma

PurposeThe aim of this study was to develop and validate radiomics signatures based on MRI for preoperative prediction of Ki-67 proliferative index (PI) expression in primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL). MethodsA total of 341 patients with PCNSL were retrospectively analyzed, including 286 patients in one center as the training set and 55 patients in another two centers as the external validation set. Radiomics features were extracted and selected from preoperative contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images, fluid attenuation inversion recovery to build radiomics signatures according to the Ki-67 PI. The predictive performances of the radiomics model were evaluated using four classifiers including random forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Network and Decision Tree. A combined model was built by incorporating radiomics signature, clinical variables and MRI radiological characteristics using multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram was established to predict the expression of Ki-67 individually. The predictive performances of the models were evaluated using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). ResultsRadiomics signatures were independent predictors of the expression level of Ki-67 (OR: 2.523, P < 0.001). RF radiomics models had the highest accuracy (0.934 in the training set and 0.811 in the external validation set) and F1 Score (0.920 in the training set and 0.836 in the external validation set). The clinic-radiologic-radiomics nomogram showed better predictive performance with AUCs of 0.877(95 % CI: 0.837–0.918) in the training set and 0.866(95 % CI: 0.774–0.957) in the external validation set. The calibration curve and DCA demonstrated goodness-of-fit and improved benefits in clinical practice of the nomogram. ConclusionsNomograms integrating MRI-based radiomics and clinical-radiological characteristics could effectively predict Ki-67 PI in primary PCNSL.

Greedy deep stochastic configuration networks ensemble with boosting negative correlation learning

Deep stochastic configuration networks (DSCNs) employ data-dependent supervision mechanism to randomly assign node parameters and incrementally construct the deep neural network structure, thereby ensuring the model's universal approximation property. To build a random neural networks ensemble model with better generalization performance, we propose a novel greedy deep stochastic configuration networks ensemble model based on boosting negative correlation learning, termed as GDSCNE. Firstly, greedy optimization strategy based on inequality constraints is utilized to generate random parameters of base components with multi-layer architecture, which can accelerate the decline of network residuals when configuring a new node. Additionally, boosting negative correlation learning framework is presented for the base components ensemble process, which uses least square approach with negative correlation learning penalty term to update the ensemble output weights for each base component, subsequently, boosting method is applied to construct a stronger ensemble model by adaptive weighting through the results of base components. Finally, we evaluated GDSCNE on the popular regression benchmark datasets from the KEEL, experimental results demonstrate that GDSCNE outperforms state-of-the-art random learning algorithms in terms of regression accuracy and generalization performance across several regression datasets with varying sizes.

Investigation of the Influence of Roughness on the Shear Resistance of Concrete-Rock Interfaces Using Random Field Simulations, Numerical Simulations, and Neural Network Modeling: Proposition of Two Approaches for the Estimation of the Peak Shear Strength

Investigation of the Influence of Roughness on the Shear Resistance of Concrete-Rock Interfaces Using Random Field Simulations, Numerical Simulations, and Neural Network Modeling: Proposition of Two Approaches for the Estimation of the Peak Shear Strength

Discontinuous transition to chaos in a canonical random neural network.

We study a paradigmatic random recurrent neural network introduced by Sompolinsky, Crisanti, and Sommers (SCS). In the infinite size limit, this system exhibits a direct transition from a homogeneous rest state to chaotic behavior, with the Lyapunov exponent gradually increasing from zero. We generalize the SCS model considering odd saturating nonlinear transfer functions, beyond the usual choice ϕ(x)=tanhx. A discontinuous transition to chaos occurs whenever the slope of ϕ at 0 is a local minimum [i.e., for ϕ^{'''}(0)>0]. Chaos appears out of the blue, by an attractor-repeller fold. Accordingly, the Lyapunov exponent stays away from zero at the birth of chaos.

Forecasting ASEAN-5 Stock Index Price Movement Using Machine Learning Techniques

This research investigates the effectiveness of various machine learning models, including Random Forest, Neural Networks, Adaboost, Discriminant Analysis, Logit Model, Support Vectors, and Kernel Factory. The study aims to forecast fluctuations in the ASEAN-5 stock index prices within an eleven-year period. The study provides useful information about how well machine learning techniques can predict changes in the stock market, with potential implications for both academic researchers and market participants. The findings imply that Adaboost consistently outperforms all others in predicting price changes accurately. This shows that machine learning algorithms are capable of accurately forecasting the movement of the ASEAN-5 stock index values. This study contributes to the growing body of research on the use of machine learning techniques in finance and provides investors with information to make informed decisions about investments in the ASEAN-5 region, ultimately leading to increased returns and improved portfolio performance.

One-way ticket to the moon? An NLP-based insight on the phenomenon of small-scale neo-broker trading

We present an Natural Language Processing based analysis on the phenomenon of “Meme Stocks”, which has emerged as a result of the proliferation of neo-brokers like Robinhood and the massive increase in the number of small-scale stock investors. Such investors often use specific Social Media channels to share short-term investment decisions and strategies, resulting in partial collusion and planning of investment decisions. The impact of online communities on the stock prices of affected companies has been considerable in the short term. This paper has two objectives. Firstly, we chronologically model the discourse on the most prominent platforms. Secondly, we examine the potential for using collaboratively made investment decisions as a means to assist in the selection of potential investments.. To understand the investment decision-making processes of small-scale investors, we analyze data from Social Media platforms like Reddit, Stocktwits and Seeking Alpha. Our methodology combines Sentiment Analysis and Topic Modelling. Sentiment Analysis is conducted using VADER and a fine-tuned BERT model. For Topic Modelling, we utilize LDA, NMF and the state-of-the-art BERTopic. We identify the topics and shapes of discussions over time and evaluate the potential for leveraging information of the decision-making process of investors for trading choices. We utilize Random Forest and Neural Network Models to show that latent information in discussions can be exploited for trend prediction of stocks affected by Social Network driven herd behavior. Our findings provide valuable insights into content and sentiment of discussions and are a vehicle to improve efficient trading decisions for stocks affected from short-term herd behavior.

USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO ANALYZE AND PREDICT ELECTORAL ACTIVITY IN BLOCKCHAIN VOTING SYSTEMS

This study explored the integration of artificial intelligence with blockchain technology to analyze and predict electoral activity in blockchain voting systems. The aim was to enhance the efficiency, transparency, and security of electronic voting by leveraging artificial intelligence 's predictive capabilities. The research focused on the application of machine learning algorithms to detect voting patterns, identify anomalies, and forecast voter turnout. By utilizing a combination of historical voting data and real-time blockchain records, the study demonstrated how artificial intelligence could provide valuable insights into voter behavior and election trends. The methodology included the use of an artificial intelligence model implemented on blockchain technology, the creation of synthetic data sets, data pre-processing, engineering functions and linear regression methods, machine learning models using random variables and neural networks. Model performance was evaluated using Mean Squared Error and R² Score. The implementation of artificial intelligence in blockchain voting systems was evaluated through a series of experimental simulations, highlighting the accuracy and reliability of predictions. The findings indicated that artificial intelligence -driven analysis could significantly improve the management and oversight of electronic elections, contributing to more robust and trustworthy voting processes. This paper presented a comprehensive methodology, discussed the results, and offered recommendations for future research and practical applications in the field of electoral technology.

Infinite-dimensional reservoir computing

Reservoir computing approximation and generalization bounds are proved for a new concept class of input/output systems that extends the so-called generalized Barron functionals to a dynamic context. This new class is characterized by the readouts with a certain integral representation built on infinite-dimensional state–space systems. It is shown that this class is very rich and possesses useful features and universal approximation properties. The reservoir architectures used for the approximation and estimation of elements in the new class are randomly generated echo state networks with either linear or ReLU activation functions. Their readouts are built using randomly generated neural networks in which only the output layer is trained (extreme learning machines or random feature neural networks). The results in the paper yield a recurrent neural network-based learning algorithm with provable convergence guarantees that do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality when learning input/output systems in the class of generalized Barron functionals and measuring the error in a mean-squared sense.

Behavioral Adaptations in Tropical Dairy Cows: Insights into Calving Day Predictions.

This study examined changes in the activity patterns of tropical dairy cows during the transition period to assess their potential for predicting calving days. This study used the AfiTag-II biosensor to monitor activity, rest time, rest per bout, and restlessness ratio in 298 prepartum and 347 postpartum Holstein Friesian cows across three lactation groups (1, 2, and ≥3). The data were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models in SPSS, and five machine learning models, including random forest, decision tree, gradient boosting, Naïve Bayes, and neural networks, were used to predict the calving day, with their performance evaluated via ROC curves and AUC metrics. For all lactations, activity levels peak on the calving day, followed by a gradual return to prepartum levels within two weeks. First-lactation cows displayed the shortest rest duration, with a prepartum rest time of 568.8 ± 5.4 (mean ± SE), which is significantly lower than higher-lactation animals. The random forest and gradient boosting displayed an effective performance, achieving AUCs of 85% and 83%, respectively. These results indicate that temporal changes in activity behavior have the potential to be a useful indicator for calving day prediction, particularly in tropical climates where seasonal variations can obscure traditional prepartum indicators.

Shear wave velocity prediction for fractured limestone reservoirs based on artificial neural network

AbstractShear wave velocity is an essential parameter in reservoir characterization and evaluation, fluid identification and prestack inversion. However, conventional data‐driven or model‐driven shear wave velocity prediction methods exhibit several limitations, such as lack of training data sets, poor model generalization and weak model robustness. In this study, a model‐ and data‐driven approach is presented to facilitate the solution of these problems. We develop a theoretical rock physics model for fractured limestone reservoirs and then use the model to generate synthetic data that incorporates geological and geophysical knowledge. The synthetic data with random noise is utilized as the training data set for the artificial neural network, and a well‐trained shear wave velocity prediction model, random noise shear wave velocity prediction neural network, is established by parameter tuning, which fits the synthetic data with noise well. The neural network is applied directly to the real field area. Compared with conventional shear wave prediction methods, such as empirical formulas and the improved Xu–White model, the prediction results show that the random noise shear wave velocity prediction neural network has better prediction performance and generalization. Furthermore, the prediction results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach, and the approach has the potential to perform shear wave velocity prediction in real areas where training data sets are unavailable.

Using machine learning algorithms to identify farms on the 2022 Census of Agriculture

As is the case for many National Statistics Institutes, the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has observed dwindling survey response rates, and the requests for more information at finer temporal and spatial scales have led to increased response burdens. Non-survey data are becoming increasingly abundant and accessible. Consequently, NASS is exploring the potential to complete some or all of a survey record using non-survey data, which would reduce respondent burden and potentially lead to increased response rates. In this paper, the focus is on a large set of records associated with potential farms, which are operations with undetermined farm status (farm/non-farm) and are referred to here as operations with unknown status (OUS). Although they usually have some agriculture, most OUS records are eventually classified as non-farms. Those OUS that are classified as farms tend to have higher proportions of producers from under-represented groups compared to other records. Determining the probability that an OUS record is a farm is an important step in the imputation process. The OUS records that responded to the 2017 U.S. Census of Agriculture were used to develop models to predict farm status using multiple data sources. Evaluated models include bootstrap random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), neural network (NN), and support vector machine (SVM). Although the SVM had the best outcomes for three of the five metrics, the sensitivity for identifying farms was the lowest (13.8%). The NN model had a sensitivity of 80.5%, which was substantially higher than the other models, and its specificity of 45.3% was the lowest of all models. Because sensitivity was the primary metric of interest and the NN performed reasonably well on the other metrics, the NN was selected as the preferred model.

Application of multi-temporal satellite imagery for urban tree species identification

Accurate tree inventories are critical for urban forest management but challenging to obtain, as many urban trees are on private property (backyards, etc.) and are excluded from public inventories. Here, we examined the feasibility of tree species identification in a large heterogenous urban area (>850 km2) by using multi-temporal PlanetScope images (3.2 m resolution, multi-spectral) and inventory data from more than 20,000 ground observations within the urban forest of the Greater Chicago area. Our approach achieved an overall classification accuracy of 0.60 and 0.71 for 18 species and ten genera, respectively, but varied from moderate to high for certain species (0.59–0.92) and genera (0.61–0.91). In particular, we identified key host tree species (Fraxinus americana, F. pennsylvanica, and Acer saccharinum) for two damaging invasive insects, emerald ash borer (EAB, Agrilus planipennis) and Asian longhorn beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis), with over 0.80 accuracies. In addition, we demonstrated that including images from the autumn months (September–November), either for a single-season model or a combined multiple-season model, improved the identification accuracy of temperate deciduous trees. Further, the high classification accuracy of support vector machine (SVM) over random forest (RF) and neural network (NN) approaches suggests that future work might benefit from comparing multiple classification methods to select the approach that maximizes species classification accuracy. Our study demonstrated the potential for applying multi-temporal high-resolution images in urban tree classification, which can be used for urban forest management at a large spatial scale.

Navigating the confluence of econometrics and data science: Implications for economic analysis and policy

This paper explores the transformative integration of econometrics and data science, a synergy poised to redefine empirical research within economics. By merging traditional econometric methods with advanced data science techniques, such as machine learning algorithms and big data analytics, this interdisciplinary approach enables a deeper, more nuanced understanding of complex economic phenomena. We delve into the theoretical foundations underlying this integration, highlighting how machine learning algorithms like random forests and neural networks complement conventional regression analysis, thereby enhancing model complexity and predictive accuracy. The paper further discusses methodological advancements, including handling high-dimensional data, incorporating unstructured data through natural language processing, and the evolution of model selection processes empowered by machine learning. Practical applications are thoroughly examined across three pivotal areas: economic forecasting and policy analysis, financial markets and risk management, and social economic analysis and public policy, showcasing the significant contributions of this convergence to economic forecasting, policy formulation, and the assessment of public interventions. This comprehensive exploration underscores the potential of combining econometrics and data science to offer more precise and actionable insights for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners in the field of economics.