Random Intercept Cross-lagged Panel Model Research Articles

How the educational level of confidants impacts our political attitudes?

Abstract The role of an individual’s educational level in shaping their political attitudes is very well documented. Also, social networks formed by both our strong and weak ties are generally segregated by educational level. Dove-tailing these two observations raised the question of whether the educational level of one’s confidants also independently impacts an individual’s political attitudes; however, this question has gotten hardly any attention. Therefore, we theorize and study the role of education in the core discussion network, including the question under what conditions the influence of our confidant’s education on our political attitudes is especially strong. Empirically, we use a random intercept cross-lagged panel model to disentangle selection effects from the influence effects of interest. We find a small but robust influence effect of confidants’ educational attainment on political attitudes of ego. However, confidants’ influence does not depend on the degree of dyadic political discussion, confidant newness, and dyadic similarity.

Relations Between Academic and Behavioral Adaptations: The Antecedent Effects of Executive Function.

Using a large sample (n = 1163) from the National Institute of Child Health and Development Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, the Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model was employed to unpack the between-person and within-person aspects in the relations between children's academic performance and externalizing/internalizing behaviors during primary school and examined the predictive role of early executive function. Results showed that the reciprocal relations between state-level fluctuations in children's behavioral problems and academic performance were largely unsupported. Children with more advanced early executive function were found to have better academic performance and fewer behavioral problems throughout primary school, supporting the antecedent role of early executive function. These findings suggest that fostering executive function skills early on could be a key strategy for improving both academic outcomes and behavioral adjustment in children.

Examining Between- and Within-subjects Effects of Posting and Exposure to Alcohol-Related Social Media Content on Drinking Over Time.

Social media content featuring alcoholic beverages is posted and viewed by college students. Limited longitudinal research suggests that increased alcohol-related content (ARC) posting and exposure is associated with increased alcohol consumption among college students over time. Emerging evidence suggests this association may be bidirectional, with drinking predicting later ARC posting. The current study examined longitudinal bidirectional associations between alcohol consumption and: posting ARC (aim 1) and friend ARC exposure (aim 2). College students engaging in heavy or problematic drinking (N = 384; Mage = 20.04; 74.2% female; 79.6% White) completed four surveys (baseline, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month). Each survey assessed social media use (including ARC posting) and alcohol use, along with ARC posting behaviors of their social network (i.e., important friends). Random-intercept cross-lagged panel models revealed significant large associations only at the within-subjects level for posting ARC, but significant medium-large between- and within-subjects associations for ARC exposure. Within-subjects, greater alcohol consumption predicted posting 1 month later, and posting at the 3-month follow-up predicted increased drinking at 6-months (aim 1). Between-subjects, individuals who reported greater social network ARC exposure were more likely to report greater alcohol consumption. Within-subjects, greater-than-average ARC exposure at 1-month predicted decreased alcohol consumption at 3-months (aim 2). Results suggest the relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol posting (self and ARC exposure) is complex and not necessarily bidirectional, with associations between posting and drinking fluctuating within subjects, while between- and within-subjects associations were observed for exposure and drinking. Associations between posting and drinking vary within individuals over time, while associations between exposure and drinking exist for groups, indicating the more people are exposed, the more alcohol they consume.

Longitudinal relationship between adolescent emotional self-regulation and prosocial behavior toward powerful people: Disentangling between-person differences from within-person effects.

This study investigated the longitudinal effects between adolescent emotional self-regulation and prosocial behavior toward powerful people (i.e., actions aimed at benefiting or supporting individuals who hold significant influence or authority within a group or society), based on the perspective of positive socialization cycle. We recruited 543 Chinese adolescents (284 girls, M age at Time 1 = 11.27 years) and collected three waves of data over 3 years, each approximately 1 year apart (n Time 2 = 449, n Time 3 = 417). Traditional cross-lagged panel model was conducted to test the longitudinal relationship between emotional self-regulation and prosocial behavior toward powerful people. Then, a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model was performed to disentangle the between-person differences from the within-person predictive processes. The results showed that, emotional self-regulation in the previous year was positively associated with prosocial behavior toward powerful people in the next year, whereas earlier prosocial behavior toward powerful people was not predictive of subsequent emotional self-regulation. Findings advocate the domain-specific nature of self-regulation and prosocial behavior and deepen our understanding of the relationship between the two from the culture-specific perspective. This study also highlights the value of emotional self-regulation intervention as a viable way to promote adolescent prosocial development. Theoretical and empirical implications are discussed.

Subjective well-being and attitudes toward outgroup members

There is a large body of literature on the effect of negative attitudes toward outgroup members on target individuals and groups. However, less attention was devoted to their effects on those who hold these attitudes. The current study hypothesized that there would be a bidirectional relationship between subjective well-being and attitudes toward outgroup members. In Study 1, data from the Integrated Values Surveys, the Ecology-Culture Dataset, and the World Happiness Report 2022 were used. In Study 2, a random intercept cross-lagged panel model was implemented using longitudinal data over a six-year period from the GESIS Panel (n = 6783 people living in Germany). Results of Study 1 demonstrated a significant negative relationship between subjective well-being and negative attitudes toward outgroup members both at the country level (118 countries) and at the individual level (663,965 participants in 120 countries around the world). In Study 2, a random intercept cross-lagged panel model revealed significant within-person reciprocal relations between life satisfaction and negative attitudes toward refugees. This study provides evidence for a bidirectional relationship between subjective well-being and negative attitudes toward outgroup members.

Longitudinal Associations Between Physical Health Conditions in Childhood and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms at Age 17

ADHD is associated with lower birth weight, but also with obesity in childhood. Findings on the direction of this association are mixed. This study investigated the relationship between weight and ADHD from birth across development. We used data from the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), collected at seven time points between 9 months and 17 years. ADHD diagnosis status and scores on the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) were used to create an ADHD group and a control group. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models were conducted in females (N=4051) and males (N=3857) to examine bidirectional associations between BMI z-scores and SDQ scores between ages three and 17. Analyses were adjusted for common risk factors for ADHD and obesity, such as sex assigned at birth, multiple births, and ADHD medication status. Children in the ADHD group were significantly lighter at birth than the control group (t(5674)=2.65, 95% CI [0.02, 0.14] p=.008) and significantly more likely to have obesity at age five onwards (OR range 1.57-2.46, RR range 0.98-2.29). Path analyses conducted separately for males and females showed that higher ADHD symptoms in females at ages 7, 11 and 14 significantly predicted higher BMI z-score at ages 11, 14 and 17 respectively. In males, this association was only seen between age 11 and 14 (β= 0.07; 95% CI, 0.04-0.10, p < .001). Results suggest that interventions for children with ADHD, and their parents, should begin as soon as possible, prenatally if possible. Developmental sex differences should be considered.

Adjustment problems and school bullying in grade school: Differentiating between- and within-person associations

This study examined the longitudinal relations between adjustment problems and school bullying in middle childhood by differentiating between- and within-person effects and putting the co-occurrence into consideration. Participants were 1091 U.S. children (51.2 % boys, 80.5 % White) and their teachers. When children were in the third, fifth, and sixth grades, bullying perpetration and victimization were self-reported and adjustment problems were rated by teachers. Using the random intercept cross-lagged panel models, the results demonstrated that adjustment problems, particularly externalizing problems, were independently predicative of bullying and victimization at the between-person level, adjusting for within-person fluctuations and the co-occurrence of adjustment problems. Moreover, at the between-person level, bullying perpetration and victimization were positively related, as were internalizing and externalizing problems. The findings contribute evidence that adjustment problems and school bullying were stably related over time and highlight the importance of adjustment problems in better understanding involvement in school bullying among school-aged children.

Bidirectional Relations Among Maternal Positive Emotion, Infant Positive Emotionality, and Infant Physiological Regulation Across the First 18 Months of Life.

Respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), a marker of self-regulation, has been linked to developmental outcomes in young children. Although positive emotions may have the potential to facilitate physiological self-regulation, and enhanced self-regulation could underlie the development of positive emotions in early childhood, the relation between positive emotions and physiological self-regulation in infancy has been relatively overlooked. The current study examined the bidirectional associations among maternal positive emotion, infant positive emotionality, and infant resting RSA across the first 18 months of life. We used data from the Longitudinal Attention and Temperament Study (LanTs; N=309 in the current analysis) to test the within- and between-person relations of study variables over time using a random-intercepts cross-lagged panel model. We found that infants with higher overall levels of positive emotionality also displayed greater resting RSA, and their mothers exhibited higher levels of positive emotion. However, there were negative cross-lagged associations within-person; higher than average infant positive emotionality predicted lower levels of infant resting RSA at the subsequent timepoint during early infancy, whereas higher than average infant RSA subsequently predicted decreased levels of infant positive emotionality later in infancy. Results highlight the importance of considering transactional relations between positive emotion and physiological self-regulation in infancy.

Longitudinal Relationships among Parenting, Prosocial Behaviors, and Emotional Problems: Examining Between- and Within-Person Associations in Adolescents.

Although bidirectional associations between parenting and adolescents' social and emotional outcomes have been investigated, how parental warmth and harsh parenting as two different parenting dimensions, adolescents' prosocial behaviors, and emotional problems were longitudinally and bidirectionally related at between- and within-person levels remains unclear. With a three-wave longitudinal design, the present study examined these associations by employing the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model. Data from 606 Chinese adolescents (Mage = 13.80 years, SD = 0.52, at T1; 45.7% girls) were collected at six-month intervals over one year, and participants completed questionnaires assessing their perception of parenting, prosocial behaviors, and emotional problems online. The results indicated that parental warmth and harsh parenting were significantly associated with adolescents' prosocial behaviors and emotional problems at the between-person level. At the within-person level, adolescents' more prosocial behaviors at T1 predicted later within-person decreases in their emotional problems at T2, which in turn predicted subsequent increased prosocial behaviors and more parental warmth at T3. Additionally, a higher level of harsh parenting at T2 unidirectionally predicted more adolescents' emotional problems at T3. These findings highlighted the developmental cascade processes among adolescents' prosocial behaviors, emotional problems, and parenting and the importance of fostering adolescents' prosocial behaviors in reducing their emotional problems and then promoting subsequent psychosocial adjustment and parent-child bonding.

Exploring the developmental changes in and the relationship between resilience and anxiety and depression in older gastric cancer survivors: A latent growth mixture model and random intercept cross-lagged panel model analysis.

This study aims to investigate the independent and joint trajectories of resilience, anxiety, and depression symptoms and research the interaction between older gastric cancer survivors' resilience and anxiety-depression during the period of 1 year after surgery. The participants were 381 older gastric cancer survivors, with a mean age of 69 years. Resilience, anxiety, and depression symptoms were assessed immediately after surgery, and at 3, 6, and 12 months post-surgery, respectively. A longitudinal design was employed to capture the dynamic changes in resilience, anxiety, and depression levels among older gastric cancer survivors post-surgery. Latent growth mixture model and random intercept cross-lagged panel model were used to analyse the trajectories of resilience and anxiety-depression and the interaction between them. Two latent trajectories were identified for the resilience, four latent trajectories were identified for the anxiety, and five latent trajectories were identified for the depression, respectively, with three joint trajectories identified: gradual-increasing resilience, gradual-decreasing anxiety, and depression group (10.0%); gradual-decreasing resilience, gradual-increasing anxiety, and depression group (21.2%); and rapid-growth resilience, rapid-decline anxiety, and depression group (68.8%). Resilience among older gastric cancer survivors exhibits significant bidirectional and negative predictive effects on anxiety and depression. Individual differences in resilience, anxiety, and depression trajectories exist among older gastric cancer survivors, with heterogeneous joint progression patterns, and the relationship between resilience and anxiety-depression appears bidirectional. More sophisticated intervention programmes tailored to the unique characteristics of the relevant trajectories are necessary to enhance resilience and mitigate the risk of anxiety and depression.

Self-Perceived Employability and Psychological Well-Being Among Italian Students and Graduates: A Three-Wave Cross-Lagged Study

This study investigated the reciprocal relationship between self-perceived employability (SPE) and psychological well-being (PWB), a connection previously suggested by theory but not yet explored empirically in early career research. Drawing from the Conservation of Resources theory, we analysed the reciprocal effects between SPE and PWB. Using data collected from 376 Italian university students and graduates, we tested the hypotheses with the random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) to analyse the SPE-PWB reciprocal linkage at both the between-person and within-person levels. While we observed a reciprocal SPE-PWB association across three waves at the between-person level, we obtained mixed findings at the within-person level. This study is the first to test the reciprocal associations between SPE and PWB among labour market entrants adopting a within-person approach. The findings offer new empirical insights into SPE during early career stages, with implications for both future research and practical applications.

Early life social predictors of longitudinal relations between childhood BMI and overeating

Abstract Introduction The progression of obesity is a continuous process involving a complex system of genetic, environmental, and behavioural factors. Socioeconomic disadvantage as well as psychological distress may lead to overeating, subsequently associated with increased energy intake and weight gain. Recent evidence indicated that the association between childhood obesity and overeating might be bidirectional. Therefore, this study aimed to longitudinally investigate the directionality of the association between childhood BMI and overeating and to identify antecedent early childhood predictors. Methods The study sample included 5,777 children from the European Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ELSPAC), collected between 18 months and 11 years of child age. The outcomes were child BMI and overeating. Predictors included maternal BMI, maternal education, single-parent households, financial difficulties, and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). The random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) was applied. Results The results showed temporal stability in the development of overeating and BMI, with a bidirectional relationship that strengthened over time. The child’s BMI was predicted by maternal BMI (β = 0.37, p &amp;lt; 0.001). The child’s overeating was predicted by maternal BMI (β = 0.13, p &amp;lt; 0.001), but a stronger effect was found for ACEs (β = 0.24, p &amp;lt; 0.001). ACEs mediated the impact of maternal education, financial difficulties, and single parenthood on overeating with indirect effects of β = -0.01 (p = 0.005), β = 0.04, (p &amp;lt; 0.001), and β = 0.07 (p &amp;lt; 0.001), respectively. Conclusions We observed stable bidirectional longitudinal effects, with a stronger association from BMI to overeating. The results suggested two main pathways: one linked to maternal BMI and early childhood BMI increase followed by overeating, and the other associated with ACEs mediating the effect of early childhood socioeconomic factors on overeating, leading to gradual BMI gain. #NGEU Key messages • The study revealed a stable bidirectional association between childhood BMI and overeating, with a stronger association from BMI to overeating. • There are two potential pathways in childhood obesity development, one involving maternal BMI, and the second associated with social disadvantage and ACEs.

Reciprocal Relationships Between Coping Strategies and Well-Being in Children and Adolescents

Abstract: Background: Not much is known about reciprocal prospective within-person effects between various coping strategies or between coping strategies and well-being in minors. Aims: Therefore, we used a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) with four-time points spaced 6 months apart to analyze how five coping strategies (seeking social support, problem-solving, avoidant coping, palliative emotion regulation, anger-related emotion regulation) were associated with each other and with well-being. Method: The sample comprised 702 minors. Their age at Time 1 was 10.30 years ( SD = 1.35; range: 8–14). Results: On the between-person level, problem-solving and palliative emotion regulation were positively related to well-being, whereas anger-related emotion regulation was negatively related. Among the coping strategies themselves, anger-related emotion regulation and problem-solving were positively correlated with seeking social support, and problem-solving and seeking social support were negatively correlated with avoidant coping. At the within-person level, avoidant coping was negative, and seeking social support was positively bidirectionally associated with well-being. Additionally, well-being positively influenced problem-solving, and seeking social support was positively and avoidant coping was negatively bidirectionally associated with problem-solving. Limitations: Due to the 6-month interval, statements are limited to only this time period. Furthermore, whereas we controlled for time-invariant covariates, we did not control for time-varying covariates. Conclusion: The findings underscore the importance of simultaneously examining different coping strategies along with well-being in a within-person design. Understanding the links between coping and well-being can contribute to the development and use of interventions promoting minors’ coping and well-being.

Examining systemic inflammation as a pathway linking peer victimization to depressive symptoms in adolescence.

Adolescents exposed to victimization are at an increased risk for a variety of adverse mental health outcomes, including depressive symptoms. Yet, the biological pathways underlying these associations remain poorly understood. Focusing on within-person processes, we examined whether low-grade systemic inflammation mediated the longitudinal associations between peer victimization and depressive symptoms in adolescence. 207 adolescents (at baseline Mage = 12.69 years; SD = 0.49; 43.5% female) participated in a multi-wave longitudinal study, with assessments repeated every 6 months over 1.5 years. At each assessment wave, participants self-reported their peer victimization experiences and depressive symptoms. Dried blood spots were collected at each wave using a finger prick procedure to assay a key marker of low-grade systemic inflammation, interkeukin-6 (IL-6). Data were analyzed using random-intercept cross-lagged panel models. The cross-lagged paths from IL-6 to depressive symptoms were significant across all models and waves (β12 = .13; β23 = .12; β34 = .08), indicating that when adolescents' levels of low-grade systemic inflammation were above their person-specific average, they reported increased levels of depressive symptoms in the subsequent months. However, no significant cross-lagged within-person associations emerged between peer victimization and either IL-6 or depressive symptoms. The findings provide no evidence for the hypothesized mediating role of inflammation in the within-person associations between peer victimization and depressive symptoms. Nevertheless, they extend prior research by indicating that elevated levels of low-grade systemic inflammation predict the development of depressive symptoms in adolescence.

Longitudinal associations between personality traits and cognitive complaints in midlife and older age across 20 years

Cross-sectional work suggests that higher neuroticism and lower conscientiousness are consistently related to more subjective cognitive complaints. Little is known about the longitudinal associations. We used data from the Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study of Adult Development to examine how personality and cognitive complaints jointly unfolded over 20 years. Participants came from a midlife ( n = 502, Mage = 43.7) and an older age group ( n = 500, Mage = 62.5). Random-intercept cross-lagged panel models were used to test the personality-complaint associations at the between-person and within-person levels. Analyses controlled for gender, education, subjective health, objective health, and memory. At the between-person level, higher neuroticism and lower conscientiousness were associated with more cognitive complaints over 20 years, and these associations were stronger in older than middle-aged adults. Among older adults, lower extraversion, openness, and agreeableness were longitudinally associated with more cognitive complaints. At the within-person level, all five traits were concurrently related to cognitive complaints, with small to medium-sized effects, but not across all measurement occasions. Few cross-lagged effects were found, with no consistent pattern across time or age cohorts. This work provides longitudinal evidence of personality-complaint associations and suggests that these associations varied more across individuals than within individuals over time.

Fluctuations in Prejudice Do Not Track Fluctuations in Ordinary Contact in Three 5-Wave “Shortitudinal” Studies Examining Daily, Weekly, or Monthly Intervals

Intergroup contact is regarded as one of the most effective ways to reduce prejudice. However, recent longitudinal studies using contemporary statistical techniques (e.g., random intercept cross-lagged panel models [RI-CLPMs]) have failed to find evidence of within-person changes in prejudice following contact fluctuations. We propose that past time-lags may have been too long to capture change and conducted three studies with shorter time-lags of single days, weeks, or months. We also considered effects of positive versus negative contact frequency. We consistently found that people who are less prejudiced have more contact (i.e., between-person effects); however, fluctuations in naturally occurring contact were not followed by corresponding within-person changes in prejudice, suggesting shorter-term contact fluctuations are detached from prejudice. With abundant support for contact in the field, we argue that prejudice may be impacted by major contact events, or through gradually acquired cumulative experiences, but effects are not apparent when examining “thin-slices” of time.

Occupational future time perspective and mental health problems across adolescence: Random-intercept cross-lagged panel analysis and alternative variations.

Adolescence is a crucial developmental stage characterized by escalating mental health issues as well as an increasing awareness of future career possibilities. Occupational future time perspective has been shown to be a promotive factor for social functioning and mental health, and a component in evidence-based clinical practices and randomized controlled trial intervention studies. However, it requires more rigorous and ecological corroboration from longitudinal analysis at the within-person level. Random intercept cross-lagged panel models with several adjustments and sensitivity analyses were applied to the longitudinal data from the Zurich Project on the Social Development from Childhood to Adulthood (Zurich, Switzerland), to analyze how occupational future time perspective and psychological/neurodevelopmental outcomes (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms/externalizing/internalizing problems) covaried across ages 13 (N = 1365), 15 (N = 1446), and 17 (N = 1305) in the years 2016, 2018, and 2020, after controlling for sex (52% male), SES, and school type. A small effect was found in a random intercept cross-lagged panel model whereby occupational future time perspective at age 15 predicted externalizing problems at age 17 (β = .146, p = .05, [95% CI = 0.000, 0.292]), and in a random intercept (contemporaneous) reciprocal panel model specification attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms at age 17 were contemporaneously associated with occupational future time perspective at age 17 (β = -.310, p < .05, [95% CI = -0.580, -0.041]). No cross-lagged associations were found to be robust across different model specifications/adjustments. These findings suggest that improving occupational future time perspective may have limited impact on enhancing mental health, offering valuable insights for school-based interventions. Further research and replication are necessary to confirm these results.

An asymmetrical reinforcing spiral? Disentangling the longitudinal dynamics of media use and mainstream media trust

Abstract While numerous studies have documented an association between mainstream media trust and mainstream media use, only little is known about potential causal mechanisms underlying the association. We theorize that selective exposure, social influence, and the reinforcing spirals model offer three possible mechanisms that may underlie the association. These possibilities were studied using random intercept cross-lagged panel models and latent curve models on a four-wave panel data set (n = 3,540). For mainstream media, the results show an asymmetrical reinforcing spiral, in which the effect of mainstream media trust on use can be considered as one of yielding maintenance, while the impact of media use on mainstream media trust to a limited degree is in line with the notion of a spiral gradually (though inconsistently) increasing trust over time. We also find that use of right-wing alternative media consistently and sometimes robustly leads to decreasing mainstream media trust.

A longitudinal study of adolescent pathways differentiating suicide ideation and attempt in early adulthood.

Suicide ideation and attempt are leading risk factors for mortality in young adults. However, the adolescent risk factors distinguishing suicide ideation from attempt in young adults remain unclear. The present study aimed to examine the extent to which within-person stability and change in depressive symptoms, school difficulties, and peer victimization from ages 12 to 17 were differentially associated with later suicide ideation and attempt from ages 20 to 23. The study included 1647 participants from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 52% female). Participants reported on their depressive symptoms, school difficulties, and peer victimization at ages 12, 13, 15, and 17, and on suicide ideation and attempt at ages 20 and 23. Data were collected in the Province of Quebec, Canada, between 2010 and 2021. Results indicated that 11% (N = 121) and 8% (N = 86) reported suicide ideation and attempt, respectively, between ages 20 and 23. A random-intercept cross-lagged panel model showed that within-person increases in depressive symptoms during adolescence were related to both suicide ideation and attempt, whereas within-person increases in school difficulties and peer victimization were for the most part related to suicide attempt only. Within-person stability in depressive symptoms from ages 12 to 17 years were also related to suicide attempt, and not ideation. However, this association was only marginally significant. Findings suggest that experiencing unusual rises in school difficulties and peer victimization during adolescence, as well as depressive symptoms persisting over time, may distinguish young adults who think about suicide from those who attempt suicide.

Prospective Relations Between Inferential Styles and Depressive Symptoms Among Children of Mothers with Major Depression

ABSTRACT Objective Current models of depression risk in children include both family history and cognitive models of risk; however, these models are rarely integrated. This study aimed to address this gap by examining how cognitive vulnerabilities featured in the hopelessness theory of depression – negative inferential styles for the causes, consequences, and self-characteristic implications of negative events – may increase risk for the intergenerational transmission of depression. Specifically, we examined whether children of mothers with a history of major depressive disorder (MDD), compared to children of never-depressed mothers, exhibit more negative inferential styles and whether maternal history of MDD moderates prospective relations between children’s inferential styles and depressive symptoms. Method Participants were 251 children (ages 8–14 at baseline; 51% girls; 81% Non-Hispanic White) of mothers with (n = 129) or without (n = 122) a history of MDD. Children’s inferential styles and depressive symptoms were assessed at baseline and then every 6 months for 2 years. Results Using random intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPMs), we found that children of mothers with a history of MDD, compared to children of never-depressed mothers, had more negative inferential styles for the causes and consequences of negative events, but not for self-characteristics, and higher depressive symptom levels, across the follow-up. In addition, there were reciprocal, transactional relations between children’s inferential styles for causes and their depressive symptoms across the follow-up, with no evidence for moderation by maternal MDD. Conclusions Children’s inferential styles for the causes of negative events may be a useful marker of risk for the intergenerational transmission of depression, which could be targeted to reduce risk for depression.