Random Forest Variable Importance Research Articles

Association between sensitivity to thyroid hormones and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND Dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are chronic conditions with substantial public health implications. Effective management of lipid metabolism in patients with T2DM is critical. However, there has been insufficient attention given to the relationship between thyroid hormone sensitivity and dyslipidemia in the T2DM population, particularly concerning non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C). AIM To clarify the association between thyroid hormone sensitivity and dyslipidemia in patients with T2DM. METHODS In this cross-sectional study, thyroid hormone sensitivity indices, the thyroid feedback quantile-based index (TFQI), the thyroid-stimulating hormone index (TSHI), the thyrotrophic T4 resistance index (TT4RI), and the free triiodothyronine (FT3)/free thyroxine (FT4) ratio were calculated. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the associations between those composite indices and non-HDL-C levels. Random forest variable importance and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) summary plots were used to identify the strength and direction of the association between hyper-non-HDL-C and its major predictor. RESULTS Among the 994 participants, 389 (39.13%) had high non-HDL-C levels. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the risk of hyper-non-HDL-C was positively correlated with the TFQI (OR: 1.584; 95%CI: 1.088-2.304; P = 0.016), TSHI (OR: 1.238; 95%CI: 1.034-1.482; P = 0.02), and TT4RI (OR: 1.075; 95%CI: 1.006-1.149; P = 0.032) but was not significantly correlated with the FT3/FT4 ratio. The relationships between composite indices of the thyroid system and non-HDL-C levels differed according to sex. An increased risk of hyper-non-HDL-C was associated with elevated TSHI levels in men (OR: 1.331; 95%CI: 1.003-1.766; P = 0.048) but elevated TFQI levels in women (OR: 2.337; 95%CI: 1.4-3.901; P = 0.001). Among the analyzed variables, the average SHAP values were highest for TSHI, followed by TT4RI. CONCLUSION Impaired sensitivity to thyroid hormones was associated with high non-HDL-C levels in patients with T2DM.

Explainable artificial intelligence on safe balance and its major determinants in stroke patients

This study develops explainable artificial intelligence for predicting safe balance using hospital data, including clinical, neurophysiological, and diffusion tensor imaging properties. Retrospective data from 92 first-time stroke patients from January 2016 to June 2023 was analysed. The dependent variables were independent mobility scores, i.e., Berg Balance Scales with 0 (45 or below) vs. 1 (above 45) measured after three and six months, respectively. Twenty-nine predictors were included. Random forest variable importance was employed for identifying significant predictors of the Berg Balance Scale and testing its associations with the predictors, including Berg Balance Scale after one month and corticospinal tract diffusion tensor imaging properties. Shapley Additive Explanation values were calculated to analyse the directions of these associations. The random forest registered a higher or similar area under the curve compared to logistic regression, i.e., 91% vs. 87% (Berg Balance Scale after three months), 92% vs. 92% (Berg Balance Scale after six months). Based on random forest variable importance values and rankings: (1) Berg Balance Scale after three months has strong associations with Berg Balance Scale after one month, Fugl-Meyer assessment scale, ipsilesional corticospinal tract fractional anisotropy, fractional anisotropy laterality index and age; (2) Berg Balance Scale after six months has strong relationships with Fugl-Meyer assessment scale, Berg Balance Scale after one month, ankle plantar flexion muscle strength, knee extension muscle strength and hip flexion muscle strength. These associations were positive in the SHAP summary plots. Including Berg Balance Scale after one month, Fugl-Meyer assessment scale or ipsilesional corticospinal tract fractional anisotropy in the random forest will increase the probability of Berg Balance Scale after three months being above 45 by 0.11, 0.08, or 0.08. In conclusion, safe balance after stroke strongly correlates with its initial motor function, Fugl-Meyer assessment scale, and ipsilesional corticospinal tract fractional anisotropy. Diffusion tensor imaging information aids in developing explainable artificial intelligence for predicting safe balance after stroke.

Ambivalent effects of mass cultivation of biodiesel producible green alga Tetraselmis striata on a microbial ecosystem: Evidence from mesocosm experiments

A 280-ton plant for the mass cultivation of Tetraselmis striata was operated from 2012 to 2019 to produce biodiesel fuel in western Korean coastal waters (Incheon) as a pilot project. This was the first instance globally where a microalgal mass cultivation plant for biodiesel production was implemented in coastal waters, and no prior studies had investigated the impact of microalgal mass cultivation plant on surrounding microecosystems. In this study, bioreactors (1× and 10×) mimicking a large-scale T. striata cultivation plant were installed in semi-permeable a mesocosms (5 tons) to assess their impact on the microbial ecosystem. The results showed that the release of large amounts of dissolve organic carbon (DOC) from the T. striata bioreactors. The 10× pond had a DOC concentration of 21.3 mg/L compared to the control pond of 2.1 mg/L. For the Water Quality Index (WQI), the 1× and 10× bioreactor installed mesocosms improved from Class II (Good) at the beginning of the experiment to Class I (Excellent) via decreasing nutrient levels and increasing of DO levels. However, from a biodiversity perspective, the microbial ecosystem deteriorated, with reductions in the diversity of zooplankton, ciliates, and phytoplankton. The correlation analysis and random forest variable importance measures indicated that the primary factor driving these changes was the alteration of the bacterial community due to elevated DOC levels. These findings indicate that while the mass cultivation of T. striata may improve physicochemical water quality, it has adverse effects on biological environments. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor physical, chemical, and biological factors comprehensively when cultivating microalgae on a large scale in marine environments.

Quantitative analysis of soil potassium by near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy combined with a three-step progressive hybrid variable selection strategy

Soil potassium is a crucial nutrient element necessary for crop growth, and its efficient measurement has become essential for developing rational fertilization plans and optimizing crop growth benefits. At present, data mining technology based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy analysis has proven to be a powerful tool for real-time monitoring of soil potassium content. However, as technology and instruments improve, the curse of the dimensionality problem also increases accordingly. Therefore, it is urgent to develop efficient variable selection methods suitable for NIR spectroscopy analysis techniques. In this study, we proposed a three-step progressive hybrid variable selection strategy, which fully leveraged the respective strengths of several high-performance variable selection methods. By sequentially equipping synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the random forest variable importance measurement (RF(VIM)), and the improved mean impact value algorithm (IMIV) into a fusion framework, a soil important potassium variable selection method was proposed, termed as SiPLS-RF(VIM)-IMIV. Finally, the optimized variables were fitted into a partial least squares (PLS) model. Experimental results demonstrated that the PLS model embedded with the hybrid strategy effectively improved the prediction performance while reducing the model complexity. The RMSET and RT on the test set were 0.01181% and 0.88246, respectively, better than the RMSET and RT of the full spectrum PLS, SiPLS, and SiPLS-RF(VIM) methods. This study demonstrated that the hybrid strategy established based on the combination of NIR spectroscopy data and the SiPLS-RF(VIM)-IMIV method could quantitatively analyze soil potassium content levels and potentially solve other issues of data-driven soil dynamic monitoring.

Machine learning analysis with population data for prepregnancy and perinatal risk factors for the neurodevelopmental delay of offspring

Neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD) in offspring are associated with a complex combination of pre-and postnatal factors. This study uses machine learning and population data to evaluate the association between prepregnancy or perinatal risk factors and the NDD of offspring. Population-based retrospective cohort data were obtained from Korea National Health Insurance Service claims data for 209,424 singleton offspring and their mothers who gave birth for the first time in 2007. The dependent variables were motor development disorder (MDD), cognitive development disorder (CDD) and combined overall neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) from offspring. Seventeen independent variables from 2002 to 2007 were included. Random forest variable importance and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were calculated to analyze the directions of its associations with the predictors. The random forest with oversampling registered much higher areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves than the logistic regression of interaction and non-linearity terms, 79% versus 50% (MDD), 82% versus 52% (CDD) and 74% versus 50% (NDD). Based on random forest variable importance, low socioeconomic status and age at birth were highly ranked. In SHAP values, there was a positive association between NDD and pre- or perinatal outcomes, especially, fetal male sex with growth restriction associated the development of NDD in offspring.

Hybrid wavelength selection strategy combined with ATR-FTIR spectroscopy for preliminary exploration of vintage labeling traceability of sauce-flavor baijiu

The allure of substantial profits has perpetuated the illicit trade of counterfeit vintage labels for baijiu. While various approaches have been employed to intelligently ascertain the vintage of baijiu, many of them are both cost-intensive and time-consuming. This work pioneered the use of Attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, coupled with chemometric analysis, offering a non-destructive and economically viable method for discriminating sauce-flavor baijiu across different aging periods (1-, 2-, and 3-year). In this research, principal component analysis (PCA) was first conducted to explore clustering trends among distinct vintage groups. Subsequently, the effect of spectral pre-processing on modeling performance was explored. For wavelength selection, four wavelength selection methods (ReliefF, random forest variable importance (RFVI), variable importance in projection (VIP), and Venn) were first used to identify the subset of candidate features that potentially best mapped the vintage labels. Immediately following this, to explore the possibility of further improving the identification capabilities of the model as well as to reduce the redundant data that may still be present, sequential backward selection (SBS) was utilized for secondary feature reduction within the subset of candidates. The amalgamation of these two techniques is termed a “hybrid wavelength selection strategy.” Additionally, the dimensionality reduction effects of PCA and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) were compared to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed method. Finally, classification models such as partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), random forest (RF), and grasshopper optimization algorithm-based support vector machine (GOA-SVM) were developed. The results show that the spectral data need not be pre-processed, and the proposed hybrid wavelength selection strategy can further improve the identification ability of the model. Among the many models developed, ReliefF-SBS-GOA-SVM emerged as the most proficient classification model, yielding accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity rates of 94.44%, 95.23%, and 94.44%, respectively. This method not only holds promise for the discrimination of baijiu class attributes such as brand, origin, flavor, and vintage but also exhibits potential applicability in other non-targeted identification studies involving spectroscopy methodologies.

ProkDBP: Toward more precise identification of prokaryotic DNA binding proteins.

Prokaryotic DNA binding proteins (DBPs) play pivotal roles in governing gene regulation, DNA replication, and various cellular functions. Accurate computational models for predicting prokaryotic DBPs hold immense promise in accelerating the discovery of novel proteins, fostering a deeper understanding of prokaryotic biology, and facilitating the development of therapeutics targeting for potential disease interventions. However, existing generic prediction models often exhibit lower accuracy in predicting prokaryotic DBPs. To address this gap, we introduce ProkDBP, a novel machine learning-driven computational model for prediction of prokaryotic DBPs. For prediction, a total of nine shallow learning algorithms and five deep learning models were utilized, with the shallow learning models demonstrating higher performance metrics compared to their deep learning counterparts. The light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), coupled with evolutionarily significant features selected via random forest variable importance measure (RF-VIM) yielded the highest five-fold cross-validation accuracy. The model achieved the highest auROC (0.9534) and auPRC (0.9575) among the 14 machine learning models evaluated. Additionally, ProkDBP demonstrated substantial performance with an independent dataset, exhibiting higher values of auROC (0.9332) and auPRC (0.9371). Notably, when benchmarked against several cutting-edge existing models, ProkDBP showcased superior predictive accuracy. Furthermore, to promote accessibility and usability, ProkDBP (https://iasri-sg.icar.gov.in/prokdbp/) is available as an online prediction tool, enabling free access to interested users. This tool stands as a significant contribution, enhancing the repertoire of resources for accurate and efficient prediction of prokaryotic DBPs.

DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE IN INDONESIAN COMPANIES FROM 2011 – 2022

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine the variables influencing capital structure in Indonesian businesses. The dependent factors in this case are the debt to asset ratio (DAR) and the debt-to-equity ratio (DER), while the independent variables are profitability, growth potential, size, dividend policy, liquidity, and business risk. All industries in Indonesia are represented in the research sample, except for the banking industry. The panel regression analytical method is used. Furthermore, Random Forest's variable importance analysis is used in this work. The outcome demonstrated that dividends, tangibility, profitability, and liquidity are important components of both DAR and DER models. Strong tangible assets raise both DAR and DER, but favorable profitability and liquidity typically lower them. Additionally, businesses that pay out larger dividends typically have smaller debt loads. Therefore, businesses should concentrate on sustaining strong profitability as it is closely related to sales. To guarantee continuous liquidity, which enables businesses to fulfill both short- and long-term obligations, care must be taken while paying out dividends.</p>

Explainable artificial intelligence for predicting red blood cell transfusion in geriatric patients undergoing hip arthroplasty: Machine learning analysis using national health insurance data.

This study uses machine learning and population data to analyze major determinants of blood transfusion among patients with hip arthroplasty. Retrospective cohort data came from Korea National Health Insurance Service claims data for 19,110 patients aged 65 years or more with hip arthroplasty in 2019. The dependent variable was blood transfusion (yes vs no) in 2019 and its 31 predictors were included. Random forest variable importance and Shapley Additive Explanations were used for identifying major predictors and the directions of their associations with blood transfusion. The random forest registered the area under the curve of 73.6%. Based on random forest variable importance, the top-10 predictors were anemia (0.25), tranexamic acid (0.17), age (0.16), socioeconomic status (0.05), spinal anesthesia (0.05), general anesthesia (0.04), sex (female) (0.04), dementia (0.03), iron (0.02), and congestive heart failure (0.02). These predictors were followed by their top-20 counterparts including cardiovascular disease, statin, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, peripheral vascular disease, liver disease, solid tumor, myocardial infarction and hypertension. In terms of max Shapley Additive Explanations values, these associations were positive, e.g., anemia (0.09), tranexamic acid (0.07), age (0.09), socioeconomic status (0.05), spinal anesthesia (0.05), general anesthesia (0.04), sex (female) (0.02), dementia (0.03), iron (0.04), and congestive heart failure (0.03). For example, the inclusion of anemia, age, tranexamic acid or spinal anesthesia into the random forest will increase the probability of blood transfusion among patients with hip arthroplasty by 9%, 7%, 9% or 5%. Machine learning is an effective prediction model for blood transfusion among patients with hip arthroplasty. The high-risk group with anemia, age and comorbid conditions need to be treated with tranexamic acid, iron and/or other appropriate interventions.

Machine learning analysis for the association between breast feeding and metabolic syndrome in women

This cross-sectional study aimed to develop and validate population-based machine learning models for examining the association between breastfeeding and metabolic syndrome in women. The artificial neural network, the decision tree, logistic regression, the Naïve Bayes, the random forest and the support vector machine were developed and validated to predict metabolic syndrome in women. Data came from 30,204 women, who aged 20 years or more and participated in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2010–2019. The dependent variable was metabolic syndrome. The 86 independent variables included demographic/socioeconomic determinants, cardiovascular disease, breastfeeding duration and other medical/obstetric information. The random forest had the best performance in terms of the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, e.g., 90.7%. According to random forest variable importance, the top predictors of metabolic syndrome included body mass index (0.1032), medication for hypertension (0.0552), hypertension (0.0499), cardiovascular disease (0.0453), age (0.0437) and breastfeeding duration (0.0191). Breastfeeding duration is a major predictor of metabolic syndrome for women together with body mass index, diagnosis and medication for hypertension, cardiovascular disease and age.

Machine learning analysis with population data for the associations of preterm birth with temporomandibular disorder and gastrointestinal diseases.

This study employs machine learning analysis with population data for the associations of preterm birth (PTB) with temporomandibular disorder (TMD) and gastrointestinal diseases. The source of the population-based retrospective cohort was Korea National Health Insurance claims for 489,893 primiparous women with delivery at the age of 25-40 in 2017. The dependent variable was PTB in 2017. Twenty-one predictors were included, i.e., demographic, socioeconomic, disease and medication information during 2002-2016. Random forest variable importance was derived for finding important predictors of PTB and evaluating its associations with the predictors including TMD and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were calculated to analyze the directions of these associations. The random forest with oversampling registered a much higher area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve compared to logistic regression with oversampling, i.e., 79.3% vs. 53.1%. According to random forest variable importance values and rankings, PTB has strong associations with low socioeconomic status, GERD, age, infertility, irritable bowel syndrome, diabetes, TMD, salivary gland disease, hypertension, tricyclic antidepressant and benzodiazepine. In terms of max SHAP values, these associations were positive, e.g., low socioeconomic status (0.29), age (0.21), GERD (0.27) and TMD (0.23). The inclusion of low socioeconomic status, age, GERD or TMD into the random forest will increase the probability of PTB by 0.29, 0.21, 0.27 or 0.23. A cutting-edge approach of explainable artificial intelligence highlights the strong associations of preterm birth with temporomandibular disorder, gastrointestinal diseases and antidepressant medication. Close surveillance is needed for pregnant women regarding these multiple risks at the same time.

Who seeks care after intimate partner violence in Cameroon? sociodemographic differences between a hospital and population sample of women.

Little is known regarding health care seeking behaviors of women in sub-Saharan Africa, specifically Cameroon, who experience violence. The proportion of women who experienced violence enrolled in the Cameroon Trauma Registry (CTR) is lower than expected. We concatenated the databases from the October 2017-December 2020 CTR and 2018 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) into a singular database for cross-sectional study. Continuous and categorical variables were compared with Wilcoxon rank-sum and Fisher's exact test. Multivariable logistic regression examined associations between demographic factors and women belonging to the DHS or CTR cohort. We performed additional classification tree and random forest variable importance analyses. 276 women (13%) in the CTR and 197 (13.1%) of women in the DHS endorsed violence from any perpetrator. A larger percentage of women in the DHS reported violence from an intimate partner (71.6% vs. 42.7%, p<0.001). CTR women who experienced IPV demonstrated greater university-level education (13.6% vs. 5.0%, p<0.001) and use of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cooking fuel (64.4% vs. 41.1%, p<0.001). DHS women who experienced IPV reported greater ownership of agricultural land (29.8% vs. 9.3%, p<0.001). On regression, women who experienced IPV using LPG cooking fuel (aOR 2.55, p = 0.002) had greater odds of belonging to the CTR cohort while women who owned agricultural land (aOR 0.34, p = 0.007) had lower odds of presenting to hospital care. Classification tree variable observation demonstrated that LPG cooking fuel predicted a CTR woman who experienced IPV while ownership of agricultural land predicted a DHS woman who experienced IPV. Women who experienced violence presenting for hospital care have characteristics associated with higher SES and are less likely to demonstrate factors associated with residence in a rural setting compared to the general population of women experiencing violence.

Random Forest Variable Importance Measures for Spatial Dynamics: Case Studies from Urban Demography

Population growth in urban centres and the intensification of segregation phenomena associated with international mobility require improved urban planning and decision-making. More effective planning in turn requires better analysis and geospatial modelling of residential locations, along with a deeper understanding of the factors that drive the spatial distribution of various migrant groups. This study examines the factors that influence the distribution of migrants at the local level and evaluates their importance using machine learning, specifically the variable importance measures produced by the random forest algorithm. It is conducted on high spatial resolution (100×100 grid cells) register data in Amsterdam and Copenhagen, using demographic, housing and neighbourhood attributes for 2018. The results distinguish the ethnic and demographic composition of a location as an important factor in the residential distribution of migrants in both cities. We also examine whether certain migrant groups pay higher prices in the most attractive areas, using spatial statistics and mapping for 2008 and 2018. We find evidence of segregation in both cities, with Western migrants having higher purchasing power than non-Western migrants in both years. The method sheds light on the determinants of migrant distribution in destination cities and advances our understanding of the application of geospatial artificial intelligence to urban dynamics and population movements.

Exploring the variable importance in random forests under correlations: a general concept applied to donor organ quality in post-transplant survival

Random Forests are a powerful and frequently applied Machine Learning tool. The permutation variable importance (VIMP) has been proposed to improve the explainability of such a pure prediction model. It describes the expected increase in prediction error after randomly permuting a variable and disturbing its association with the outcome. However, VIMPs measure a variable’s marginal influence only, that can make its interpretation difficult or even misleading. In the present work we address the general need for improving the explainability of prediction models by exploring VIMPs in the presence of correlated variables. In particular, we propose to use a variable’s residual information for investigating if its permutation importance partially or totally originates from correlated predictors. Hypotheses tests are derived by a resampling algorithm that can further support results by providing test decisions and p-values. In simulation studies we show that the proposed test controls type I error rates. When applying the methods to a Random Forest analysis of post-transplant survival after kidney transplantation, the importance of kidney donor quality for predicting post-transplant survival is shown to be high. However, the transplant allocation policy introduces correlations with other well-known predictors, which raises the concern that the importance of kidney donor quality may simply originate from these predictors. By using the proposed method, this concern is addressed and it is demonstrated that kidney donor quality plays an important role in post-transplant survival, regardless of correlations with other predictors.

Explainable artificial intelligence on life satisfaction, diabetes mellitus and its comorbid condition

This study uses artificial intelligence for testing (1) whether the comorbidity of diabetes and its comorbid condition is very strong in the middle-aged or old (hypothesis 1) and (2) whether major determinants of the comorbidity are similar for different pairs of diabetes and its comorbid condition (hypothesis 2). Three pairs are considered, diabetes-cancer, diabetes-heart disease and diabetes-mental disease. Data came from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2016–2018), with 5527 participants aged 56 or more. The evaluation of the hypotheses were based on (1) whether diabetes and its comorbid condition in 2016 were top-5 determinants of the comorbidity in 2018 (hypothesis 1) and (2) whether top-10 determinants of the comorbidity in 2018 were similar for different pairs of diabetes and its comorbid condition (hypothesis 2). Based on random forest variable importance, diabetes and its comorbid condition in 2016 were top-2 determinants of the comorbidity in 2018. Top-10 determinants of the comorbidity in 2018 were the same for different pairs of diabetes and its comorbid condition: body mass index, income, age, life satisfaction—health, life satisfaction—economic, life satisfaction—overall, subjective health and children alive in 2016. In terms of SHAP values, the probability of the comorbidity is expected to decrease by 0.02–0.03 in case life satisfaction overall is included to the model. This study supports the two hypotheses, highlighting the importance of preventive measures for body mass index, socioeconomic status, life satisfaction and family support to manage diabetes and its comorbid condition.

ATR-FTIR spectroscopy combined with chemometrics to assess the spectral markers of irradiated baijius and their potential application in irradiation dose control

Although some methods have been proposed for the identification of irradiated baijius, they are often costly, time-consuming, and destructive. It is also unclear what instrumentation can be used to fully characterize the quality changes in irradiated baijius. To address this issue, this study pioneers the use of attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy in combination with chemometrics to open up new avenues for characterizing irradiated baijius and their quality control. Principal component analysis, five spectral pre-processing methods (Savitzky-Golay smoothing (S-G), second-order derivative (SD), multiple scattering correction (MSC), S-G + SD and S-G + MSC), five wavelength selection methods (random forest variable importance (RFVI), two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2D-COS), variable importance in projection (VIP), ReliefF, and Venn), and three classification models (partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA), random forest (RF), and grasshopper optimization algorithm-based support vector machine (GOA-SVM)) were integrated into the analytical framework of ATR-FTIR spectroscopy, aiming to accurately identify baijiu samples according to different irradiation doses and to search for irradiation-induced spectral difference characteristics (spectral markers). The results showed that SD was the best spectral pre-processing method, and RF models constructed using the 20 most competitive and discriminative spectral markers (selected by Venn) could achieve accurate identification of baijiu samples based on irradiation dose (0, 4, 6, and 8 kGy). After Pearson correlation analysis, the five significantly (P＜0.05) changed spectral markers (1596, 2025, 2309, 2329, and 2380 cm−1) were attributed to changes in the content of total acids, alcohols, and aromatic compounds. These findings demonstrate for the first time the potential of ATR-FTIR spectroscopy as a fast, low-cost, and non-destructive tool for the characterization and identification of irradiated baijiu samples. This approach may also offer a promising solution for labeling management of irradiated foods, vintage identification of baijius, and brand protection.

Cable Temperature Prediction Based on RF-GPR for Digital Twin Applications

With the wide application of power cables in the field of transmission and distribution and the increasing emphasis of power departments on the reliability, safety and stability of power cable operation, how to more accurately and quickly analyze the temperature distribution of power cables and how to evaluate the running state of power cables have become research hotspots. Through the combination of finite element calculation and the artificial intelligence method, an innovative method of digital twin cable temperature prediction based on RF-GPR is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the finite element method is used to calculate the coupling of the electromagnetic field and temperature field of a 10 kV AC cable laid in the cable trench, and a certain amount of basic data are provided through the finite element calculation results. Then, using the basic principle of the random forest (RF) variable importance score, the RF-GPR cable temperature prediction model is constructed using the series hybrid model and Gaussian process regression (GPR), the model prediction results are compared and analyzed, and the calculation time is improved by about 1500 times. Finally, a digital twinning platform for cable temperature calculation based on RF-GPR is designed, which provides technical support for the application of digital twinning.

Use and misuse of random forest variable importance metrics in medicine: demonstrations through incident stroke prediction

BackgroundMachine learning tools such as random forests provide important opportunities for modeling large, complex modern data generated in medicine. Unfortunately, when it comes to understanding why machine learning models are predictive, applied research continues to rely on ‘out of bag’ (OOB) variable importance metrics (VIMPs) that are known to have considerable shortcomings within the statistics community. After explaining the limitations of OOB VIMPs – including bias towards correlated features and limited interpretability – we describe a modern approach called ‘knockoff VIMPs’ and explain its advantages.MethodsWe first evaluate current VIMP practices through an in-depth literature review of 50 recent random forest manuscripts. Next, we recommend organized and interpretable strategies for analysis with knockoff VIMPs, including computing them for groups of features and considering multiple model performance metrics. To demonstrate methods, we develop a random forest to predict 5-year incident stroke in the Sleep Heart Health Study and compare results based on OOB and knockoff VIMPs.ResultsNearly all papers in the literature review contained substantial limitations in their use of VIMPs. In our demonstration, using OOB VIMPs for individual variables suggested two highly correlated lung function variables (forced expiratory volume, forced vital capacity) as the best predictors of incident stroke, followed by age and height. Using an organized analytic approach that considered knockoff VIMPs of both groups of features and individual features, the largest contributions to model sensitivity were medications (especially cardiovascular) and measured medical risk factors, while the largest contributions to model specificity were age, diastolic blood pressure, self-reported medical risk factors, polysomnography features, and pack-years of smoking. Thus, we reach very different conclusions about stroke risk factors using OOB VIMPs versus knockoff VIMPs.ConclusionsThe near-ubiquitous reliance on OOB VIMPs may provide misleading results for researchers who use such methods to guide their research. Given the rapid pace of scientific inquiry using machine learning, it is essential to bring modern knockoff VIMPs that are interpretable and unbiased into widespread applied practice to steer researchers using random forest machine learning toward more meaningful results.

Multicenter analysis of immunosuppressive medications on the risk of malignancy following adult solid organ transplantation.

This study aimed to assess the risk of maintenance immunosuppression on the post-transplant risk of malignancy across all solid organ transplant types. This is a retrospective cohort study from a multicenter hospital system in the United States. The electronic health record was queried from 2000 to 2021 for cases of solid organ transplant, immunosuppressive medications, and post-transplant malignancy. A total of 5,591 patients, 6,142 transplanted organs, and 517 post-transplant malignancies were identified. Skin cancer was the most common type of malignancy at 52.8%, whereas liver cancer was the first malignancy to present at a median time of 351 days post-transplant. Heart and lung transplant recipients had the highest rate of malignancy, but this finding was not significant upon adjusting for immunosuppressive medications (heart HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.72 - 1.3, p = 0.88; lung HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.77 - 1.33, p = 0.94). Random forest variable importance calculations and time-dependent multivariate cox proportional hazard analysis identified an increased risk of cancer in patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy with sirolimus (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.05 - 1.9, p = 0.04), azathioprine (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.58 - 2.79, p < 0.001), and cyclosporine (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.17 - 2.17, p = 0.007), while tacrolimus (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.44 - 0.81, p < 0.001) was associated with low rates of post-transplant neoplasia. Our results show varying risks of immunosuppressive medications associated with the development of post-transplant malignancy, demonstrating the importance of cancer detection and surveillance strategies in solid organ transplant recipients.

Independent prognostic value of method of detection in lung cancer: Analysis of the PLCO lung screening trial.

e22526 Background: Prognostic models in cancer use patient and tumor characteristics to predict survival and disease progression. Many tumors are detected as part of screening programs such as colonoscopy for colorectal cancer, mammograms for breast cancer, and pap tests for cervical cancer. Past work in breast cancer has shown that screen detected tumors exhibit better prognosis than symptom detected tumors. The prognostic significance of method of detection in other types of cancers is less well understood. Further, the importance of method of detection, relative to other prognostic variables such as sex, age, cancer stage at diagnosis, and histology, is largely unknown. Methods: The prognostic significance of method of detection in the PLCO Lung cancer screening trial was investigated. PLCO randomized patients to intervention, with four annual chest x-ray (CXR) screenings, or control, usual care. Patients were followed for a total of approximately 13 years. All patients diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer within 4 years of randomization were considered in the analysis (N = 934). Cox proportional hazards model and Random Survival Forests were used to build prognostic models to predict overall survival. The importance of each variable in prognostic models was assessed using hazard ratios and Random Forest variable importance measures. Results: Screen detected tumors exhibit stage shift and have better prognosis than interval and control detected tumors. The improved prognosis remains significant after controlling for stage at diagnosis and other variables commonly used in prognostic models (e.g., age, histology, sex). Variable importance measures show that method of detection is a more important prognostic indicator than sex and histology. Results are robust to different methods for cohort selection. Conclusions: Method of cancer detection should be considered when developing prognostic models in lung cancer studies. Cancer registries should routinely collect method of cancer detection.