This article investigates the possibility that the emergence of reflexively autocatalytic sets of peptides and polypeptides may be an essentially inevitable collective property of any sufficiently complex set of polypeptides. The central idea is based on the connectivity properties of random directed graphs. In the set of amino acid monomer and polymer species up to some maximum length, M, the number of possible polypeptides is large, but, for specifiable "legitimate" end condensation, cleavage and transpeptidation exchange reactions, the number of potential reactions by which the possible polypeptides can interconvert is very much larger. A directed graph in which arrows from smaller fragments to larger condensation products depict potential synthesis reactions, while arrows from the larger peptide to the smaller fragments depict the reverse cleavage reactions, comprises the reaction graph for such a system. Polypeptide protoenzymes are able to catalyze such reactions. The distribution of catalytic capacities in peptide space is a fundamental problem in its own right, and in its bearing on the existence of autocatalytic sets of proteins. Using an initial idealized hypothesis that an arbitrary polypeptide has a fixed a priori probability of catalyzing any arbitrary legitimate reaction to assign to each polypeptide those reactions, if any, which it catalyzes, the probability that the set of polypeptides up to length M contains a reflexively autocatalytic subset can be calculated and is a percolation problem on such reaction graphs. Because, as M increases, the ratio of reactions among the possible polypeptides to polypeptides rises rapidly, the existence of such autocatalytic subsets is assured for any fixed probability of catalysis. The main conclusions of this analysis appear independent of the idealizations of the initial model, introduce a novel kind of parallel selection for peptides catalyzing connected sequences of reactions, depend upon a new kind of minimal critical complexity whose properties are definable, and suggest that the emergence of self replicating systems may be a self organizing collective property of critically complex protein systems in prebiotic evolution. Similar principles may apply to the emergence of a primitive connected metabolism. Recombinant DNA procedures, cloning random DNA coding sequences into expression vectors, afford a direct avenue to test the distribution of catalytic capacities in peptide space, may provide a new means to select or screen for peptides with useful properties, and may ultimately lead toward the actual construction of autocatalytic peptide sets.
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