Abstract. The purpose of the article is to determine the main patterns and research of the current state of the fuel and energy complex, as a main section in ensuring the stability of the country’s economy, within the western region of Ukraine. The main factors that affect energy, the development of an effective system for providing qualitative and quantitative assessments of the results of the fuel and energy complex at the regional level, which will allow developing effective strategies for the development of energy on the basis of the information obtained, have been determined. An important element of the development of such strategies is the assessment and construction of technological forecasts, which allow to control the quality and timeliness of the implementation of current plans and which allow to monitor the change in the structure of influencing factors, etc. The method of developing scenarios is suitable for providing qualitative assessments, as it takes into account various factors, and also considers the change in the nature of their influence on the explored phenomenon. To evaluate the efficiency and build forecasts of the results of the fuel and energy sector, after bringing the dynamic series to a stationary form, the ARMA (p;q) and SARMA(p;q) models were chosen, on the basis of which forecasts of final production were built, in particular, the activities of: oil and gas complex, coal complex, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants, hydroelectric power plants, solar and wind power plants. These models make it possible to estimate and obtain accurate and adequate forecasts of technological indicators of energy development, as they take into account lags in the change of production capacities, as well as changes in the nature of the influence of certain factors of the past. The described angle allows taking into account both the long-term nature of capacity changes and the influence of factors that can be defined under other conditions as random deviations. Key words: Fuel and energy complex; ARMA model; SARMA model; Jarque-Bera test; autocorrelation; prognostication; diversification