Analysis of the operational data related to rails failure showed that contact-fatigue defects consistently hold a prominent place. The goal of the study is to show the possibilities of using modern numerical methods in calculation assessment of the service life of rails before the onset of contact fatigue crack formation on a running surface depending on the values of axial load. To calculate a stress-strain state in the area of contact interaction between the wheel and rail a detailed finite-element model implemented in the MSC. Marc software package is used. The analysis revealed complex multiaxial and non-proportional nature of the stress-strain state. The Brown – Miller multiaxial fatigue model implemented in the MSC. Fatigue software package was taken to determine accumulation of the contact fatigue damages on a rail running surface. The model is based on the assumption that maximum fatigue damages in the metal occur in the area with the maximum shear stress. The impact of normal stresses in this area is also taken into account. The results of a comparative computational analysis of the rail life time confirm that the service life decreases with increasing axial loads, all other conditions being the same. With a share of 20% of freight trains with axle loads of 25 tonf in a daily pattern one should expect a decrease in the contact fatigue life of rails by 3 – 4 %. It is possible to improve the method for prediction of the contact fatigue life of rails in terms of experimental definition of the fatigue and strength characteristics of the rail steel depending on the degree of hardening of the running surface, their probabilistic properties and the use of a cumulative distribution of vertical forces taking into account the structure of the freight traffic passing through the section.