Radiative Warming Research Articles

Major surface melting over the Ross Ice Shelf part I: Foehn effect

AbstractWest Antarctica (WA), especially the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), has experienced more frequent surface melting during the austral summer recently. The future is likely to see enhanced surface melting that will jeopardize the stability of ice shelves and cause ice loss. We investigate four major melt cases over the RIS via Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations (4 km resolution) driven by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) reanalysis data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed albedo. Direct warm air advection, recurring foehn effect, and cloud/upper warm air introduced radiative warming are the three major regional causes of surface melting over WA. In this paper, Part I, the first two factors are identified and quantified. The second paper, Part II, discusses the impact of clouds and summarizes all three factors from a surface energy balance perspective. With a high‐pressure ridge located westward towards the Sulzberger Ice Shelf (77° S, 148° W) and a low‐pressure center located between 165° and 180° W, warm marine air from the Ross Sea is advected towards the coastal RIS and leads to surface melting. When the high‐pressure ridge is located farther east towards Marie Byrd Land (120–150° W), the foehn effect can cause a 2–4°C increase in surface temperature on the leeside of the mountains. For three of four melt cases, more than 40% of the melting period experiences foehn warming. Isentropic drawdown is usually the dominant foehn mechanism and contributes up to a 14°C temperature increase, especially when strong low‐level blocking occurs on the upwind side. The thermodynamic mechanism can be important depending on the strength of moisture uptake and condensation on the windward side. Meanwhile, sensible heat flux contributes less to foehn warming, but still plays an important role in the melting. The prediction of future stability of the RIS should include foehn warming as a major driver.

Surface temperatures and their influence on the permafrost thermal regime in high-Arctic rock walls on Svalbard

Abstract. Permafrost degradation in steep rock walls and associated slope destabilization have been studied increasingly in recent years. While most studies focus on mountainous and sub-Arctic regions, the occurring thermo-mechanical processes also play an important role in the high Arctic. A more precise understanding is required to assess the risk of natural hazards enhanced by permafrost warming in high-Arctic rock walls. This study presents one of the first comprehensive datasets of rock surface temperature measurements of steep rock walls in the high Arctic, comparing coastal and near-coastal settings. We applied the surface energy balance model CryoGrid 3 for evaluation, including adjusted radiative forcing to account for vertical rock walls. Our measurements comprise 4 years of rock surface temperature data from summer 2016 to summer 2020. Mean annual rock surface temperatures ranged from −0.6 in a coastal rock wall in 2017/18 to −4.3 ∘C in a near-coastal rock wall in 2019/20. Our measurements and model results indicate that rock surface temperatures at coastal cliffs are up to 1.5 ∘C higher than at near-coastal rock walls when the fjord is ice-free in winter, resulting from additional energy input due to higher air temperatures at the coast and radiative warming by relatively warm seawater. An ice layer on the fjord counteracts this effect, leading to similar rock surface temperatures to those in near-coastal settings. Our results include a simulated surface energy balance with shortwave radiation as the dominant energy source during spring and summer with net average seasonal values of up to 100 W m−2 and longwave radiation being the main energy loss with net seasonal averages between 16 and 39 W m−2. While sensible heat fluxes can both warm and cool the surface, latent heat fluxes are mostly insignificant. Simulations for future climate conditions result in a warming of rock surface temperatures and a deepening of active layer thickness for both coastal and near-coastal rock walls. Our field data present a unique dataset of rock surface temperatures in steep high-Arctic rock walls, while our model can contribute towards the understanding of factors influencing coastal and near-coastal settings and the associated surface energy balance.

Wintertime direct radiative effects due to black carbon (BC) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventories in CHIMERE

Abstract. To reduce the uncertainty in climatic impacts induced by black carbon (BC) from global and regional aerosol–climate model simulations, it is a foremost requirement to improve the prediction of modelled BC distribution, specifically over the regions where the atmosphere is loaded with a large amount of BC, e.g. the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in the Indian subcontinent. Here we examine the wintertime direct radiative perturbation due to BC with an efficiently modelled BC distribution over the IGP in a high-resolution (0.1∘ × 0.1∘) chemical transport model, CHIMERE, implementing new BC emission inventories. The model efficiency in simulating the observed BC distribution was assessed by executing five simulations: Constrained and bottomup (bottomup includes Smog, Cmip, Edgar, and Pku). These simulations respectively implement the recently estimated India-based observationally constrained BC emissions (Constrainedemiss) and the latest bottom-up BC emissions (India-based: Smog-India; global: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 – CMIP6, Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research-V4 – EDGAR-V4, and Peking University BC Inventory – PKU). The mean BC emission flux from the five BC emission inventory databases was found to be considerably high (450–1000 kg km−2 yr−1) over most of the IGP, with this being the highest (> 2500 kg km−2 yr−1) over megacities (Kolkata and Delhi). A low estimated value of the normalised mean bias (NMB) and root mean square error (RMSE) from the Constrained estimated BC concentration (NMB: < 17 %) and aerosol optical depth due to BC (BC-AOD) (NMB: 11 %) indicated that simulations with Constrainedemiss BC emissions in CHIMERE could simulate the distribution of BC pollution over the IGP more efficiently than with bottom-up emissions. The high BC pollution covering the IGP region comprised a wintertime all-day (daytime) mean BC concentration and BC-AOD respectively in the range 14–25 µg m−3 (6–8 µg m−3) and 0.04–0.08 from the Constrained simulation. The simulated BC concentration and BC-AOD were inferred to be primarily sensitive to the change in BC emission strength over most of the IGP (including the megacity of Kolkata), but also to the transport of BC aerosols over megacity Delhi. Five main hotspot locations were identified in and around Delhi (northern IGP), Prayagraj–Allahabad–Varanasi (central IGP), Patna–Palamu (mideastern IGP), and Kolkata (eastern IGP). The wintertime direct radiative perturbation due to BC aerosols from the Constrained simulation estimated the atmospheric radiative warming (+30 to +50 W m−2) to be about 50 %–70 % larger than the surface cooling. A widespread enhancement in atmospheric radiative warming due to BC by 2–3 times and a reduction in surface cooling by 10 %–20 %, with net warming at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) of 10–15 W m−2, were noticed compared to the atmosphere without BC, for which a net cooling at the TOA was exhibited. These perturbations were the strongest around megacities (Kolkata and Delhi), extended to the eastern coast, and were inferred to be 30 %–50% lower from the bottomup than the Constrained simulation.

Midlatitude Cloud Radiative Effect Sensitivity to Cloud Controlling Factors in Observations and Models: Relationship with Southern Hemisphere Jet Shifts and Climate Sensitivity

AbstractAn effective method to understand cloud processes and to assess the fidelity with which they are represented in climate models is the cloud controlling factor framework, in which cloud properties are linked with variations in large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical variables. This study examines how midlatitude cloud radiative effects (CRE) over oceans co-vary with four cloud controlling factors: mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, estimated inversion strength (EIS), near-surface temperature advection, and sea surface temperature (SST), and assesses their representation in CMIP6 models with respect to observations and CMIP5 models.CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude CRE to perturbations in vertical velocity, and underestimate the sensitivity of midlatitude shortwave CRE to perturbations in EIS and temperature advection. The largest improvement in CMIP6 models is a reduced sensitivity of CRE to vertical velocity perturbations. As in CMIP5 models, many CMIP6 models simulate a shortwave cloud radiative warming effect associated with a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitude jet stream, an effect not present in observations. This bias arises because most models’ shortwave CRE are too sensitive to vertical velocity perturbations and not sensitive enough to EIS perturbations, and because most models overestimate the SST anomalies associated with SH jet shifts. The presence of this bias directly impacts the transient surface temperature response to increasing greenhouse gases over the Southern Ocean, but not the global-mean surface temperature. Instead, the models’ climate sensitivity is correlated with their shortwave CRE sensitivity to surface temperature advection perturbations near 40°S, with models with more realistic values of temperature advection sensitivity generally having higher climate sensitivity.

Advection Fog over the Eastern Yellow Sea: WRF Simulation and Its Verification by Satellite and In Situ Observations

An observed sea fog event over the Eastern Yellow Sea on 15–16 April 2012 was reproduced in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation with high-resolution to investigate the roles of physical processes and synoptic-scale flows on advection fog with phase transition. First, it was verified by a satellite-based fog detection algorithm and in situ observation data. In the simulation, longwave (infrared) radiative cooling (LRC) with a downward turbulent sensible heat flux (SHF), due to the turbulence after sunset, triggered cloud formation over the surface when warm-moist air advection occurred. At night, warm air advection with continuous cooling due to longwave radiation and SHF near the surface modulated the change of the SHF from downward to upward, resulting in a drastic increase in the turbulent latent heat flux (LHF) that provided sufficient moisture at the lower atmosphere (self-moistening). This condition represents a transition from cold-sea fog to warm-sea fog. Enhanced turbulent mixing driven by a buoyancy force increased the depth of the sea fog and the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) height, even at nighttime. In addition, cold air advection with a prevailing northerly wind at the top of the MABL led to a drastic increase in turbulent mixing and the MABL height and rapid growth of the height of sea fog. After sunrise, shortwave radiative warming in the fog layers offsetting the LRC near the surface weakened thermal instability, which contributed to the reduction in the MABL height, even during the daytime. In addition, dry advection of the northerly wind induced dissipation of the fog via evaporation. An additional sensitivity test of sea surface salinity showed weaker and shallower sea fog than the control due to the decrease in both the LHF and local self-moistening. Detailed findings from the simulated fog event can help to provide better guidance for fog detection using remote sensing.

The fast response of Sahel precipitation to climate change allows effective mitigation action

Climate change will drive major perturbations of the West African summer monsoon. A zonal contrast in precipitation will develop at the end of the century, with an increase in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel. Such a zonal contrast results from the antagonist effects of the fast (due to enhanced radiative warming over land, and over the North Hemisphere, relative to the South Hemisphere) and slow (associated with long-term changes in oceanic circulation) responses of precipitation to increasing greenhouse gases. While such changes have already been assessed, less attention has been given to their temporality, an issue of major importance to promote efficient mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we analyse the future evolution of precipitation changes decomposed into a fast and a slow response, showing that the fast response dominates the slow one. From this evidence, we highlight that mitigation strategies may be successful at reducing the effect of climate change on Sahel precipitation within a few decades, by muting the fast response. This decomposition also allows for a better understanding of the uncertainty of climate model predictions in Africa.

An investigation on the environmental impacts and energy efficiency of biogas and bioethanol production from sugarcane and sugar beet molasses: A case study

ABSTRACT This study presents a comparison in terms of both environmental effect/energy efficiency of different designs of the process for sugarcane/sugar beet molasses-based bioethanol. In the present work, two scenarios were designed/compared, including the production of sugarcane-based (Scenario 1) and sugar beet molasses bioethanol (Scenario 2) in Khuzestan Province as an agricultural hub of Iran. Furthermore, an improved process, including a biogas production line from the residual vinasse from the distillation of molasses for bioethanol obtaining is presented, both from sugarcane (scenario 3) and sugar beet (scenario 4), and life cycle assessment (LCA) method was employed for determination of environmental impacts. The results, in terms of net energy value (NEV), i.e. the difference between the energy content of ethanol and the energy used in its production and distribution, were very similar as 11.03 MJ and 11.15 MJ, respectively. Nevertheless, the results of the environmental impact analysis indicated that bioethanol production from sugarcane molasses had a higher impact compared to the sugar beet in terms of global warming potential, fossil, and metal depletion, particulate matter formation, human toxicity, and climate change ecosystems. Furthermore, the addition of the biogas production plant from the residual vinasse (scenarios 3 and 4) resulted in a considerable reduction of all studied environmental impacts (i.e., climate change, human toxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidant formation, terrestrial acidification, freshwater ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity, ionizing radiation, fossil depletion, and global warming). As an example, by applying scenarios 3 and 4, the global warming potential for sugarcane and sugar beet was reduced by 61.2% and 83%, and the climate change decreased by 61% and 81% for bioethanol production from sugarcane and sugar beet, respectively.

Modeling the Radiative Effect on Microphysics in Cirrus Clouds Against Satellite Observations.

The radiative effect on microphysics (REM) plays an important role in the dew/frost formation near the surface. How REM impacts cirrus clouds is investigated in this study, using bin microphysical model simulations and coincident data of the CloudSat and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellites. REM affects ice crystal spectrum with two types: radiative cooling and warming. Radiative cooling, as predicted by the bin‐model simulations, favors the formation of horizontally oriented ice crystals (HOICs), but radiative warming does not. Hence, a test of REM can be transformed to a test of HOICs, because HOICs can be measured by the microwave polarization observations of the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) at 166 GHz. To analyze the GMI data for their HOIC distribution, clouds are sorted into four groups with different optical depth and altitude, based on the radiative cooling/warming ratio (or eta) computed with satellite‐retrieved ice water content. Their HOIC distributions (e.g., the midlevel thick clouds have more HOICs than the high‐level ones) agree well with those predicted by the bin‐model simulations. The general agreement between the GMI observations and bin‐model simulations suggests that REM is common in cirrus clouds and impacts cirrus clouds significantly.

Bioindication of the dangerous geomorphological processes’ activity centers (on the example of the central part of the Chornohora massif)

Rapid climate change in the Ukrainian Carpathians has triggered the intensity and recurrence of geomorphological processes that in turn has changed the vertical structure of landscape complexes. Forest ecosystems serve apparent indicators of the processes. Accordingly, the study aims to identify the spatio-temporal features of avalanche processes, landslides, rock falls using bioindication in the central part of the Chornogora massif in the Ukrainian Carpathians. The main reasons for the intensification of current geomorphological processes include 1) climatic changes and variability in the course of precipitation and air temperatures in the cold season, 2) terrain features (slope, slope exposure and surface type), 3) vegetation features, etc. Snow avalanche activity is influenced by the fluctuation of diurnal temperature within -1 to +5 ° C. Temperature features of the territory have a direct impact on the formation of the structure of snow, stratigraphy, and thickness. One of the important factors triggering snow avalanches are the steepness of the slopes equal to 30-45. The main reasons for the manifestation of such are the force of gravity, which itself affects the movement of rocks from the slopes from elevated to low terrain. The causes of landslides and rock falls are sharp daily changes in air temperature, heavy rainfall, permafrost, melting snow, weathering and more. In mountainous areas, such processes are quite common, and they are associated with morphological, lithological, climatic and other conditions associated with the passage of these processes. The description of the five most intense centers of avalanches was identified and compiled based on the surveys of the Bystrets local residents and the detected deformations and damages of forest formations. The most intensive events were distinguished in 1977, 1995, 1998 and 2001. These avalanche events have caused the greatest changes in the landscape complexes of the central part of the Chornohora. The area occupied by the avalanche flows and the area of damaged forests were detected with the satellite images. According to the remaining tree material (trunks up to 1 m high), the main tree species damaged by the destructive force of the avalanche were identified. In addition, in the period of 2014-2018, 7 avalanche streams have taken place in the central part of the Chornohora. We also discovered a new avalanche centre, in addition to those mentioned earlier. This centre is located on the northeastern slope of the Gomul peak (1788 m). 57% of all the detected snow avalanches are considered epigenetic, 29% are syngenetic and 14% are polygenic. Most of them are associated with either the advection of warm Mediterranean air or local radiation warming of the surface air layer. The results of the survey of avalanche sites indicate a determinative role of tree-shrub formations in the indication of the destructive forces and consequences of avalanches. The restoration of landscapes after snow avalanche processes is also accompanied by the replacement of forest ecosystems with shrubs and the loss of valuable ecosystems, which may lead to the search for climatic explanations for such changes. Other geomorphological processes studied during the expeditions in 2019-2020 are landslides and rock falls. During the survey of the central part of the Chornohora massif for the manifestation of the processes, one active landslide was detected within the forest belt at the altitudes of 1000-1600 meters a.s.l l. Traces of bifurcations, scars and tilted tree species witness the landslide activity. The number of detected damaged trees reaches 20 units per 40 m2. Identified damaged coniferous formations serve valuable data for perspective dendrogeomorphological studies to reconstruct snow avalanches and other geomorphological processes of the past, as well as to distinguish local climate features.

Evaluation of Ocean Color Remote Sensing Algorithms for Diffuse Attenuation Coefficients and Optical Depths with Data Collected on BGC-Argo Floats

The vertical distribution of irradiance in the ocean is a key input to quantify processes spanning from radiative warming, photosynthesis to photo-oxidation. Here we use a novel dataset of thousands local-noon downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (Ed(490)) and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) profiles captured by 103 BGC-Argo floats spanning three years (from October 2012 to January 2016) in the world’s ocean, to evaluate several published algorithms and satellite products related to diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd). Our results show: (1) MODIS-Aqua Kd(490) products derived from a blue-to-green algorithm and two semi-analytical algorithms show good consistency with the float-observed values, but the Chla-based one has overestimation in oligotrophic waters; (2) The Kd(PAR) model based on the Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) performs well not only at sea-surface but also at depth, except for the oligotrophic waters where Kd(PAR) is underestimated below two penetration depth (2zpd), due to the model’s assumption of a homogeneous distribution of IOPs in the water column which is not true in most oligotrophic waters with deep chlorophyll-a maxima; (3) In addition, published algorithms for the 1% euphotic-layer depth and the depth of 0.415 mol photons m−2 d−1 isolume are evaluated. Algorithms based on Chla generally work well while IOPs-based ones exhibit an overestimation issue in stratified and oligotrophic waters, due to the underestimation of Kd(PAR) at depth.

Role of AMOC in Transient Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing in Two Coupled Models

AbstractAs the greenhouse gas concentrations increase, a warmer climate is expected. However, numerous internal climate processes can modulate the primary radiative warming response of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas forcing. Here the particular internal climate process that we focus on is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an important global-scale feature of ocean circulation that serves to transport heat and other scalars, and we address the question of how the mean strength of AMOC can modulate the transient climate response. While the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM1) have very similar equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, our analysis suggests that a weaker AMOC contributes in part to the higher transient climate response to a rising greenhouse gas forcing seen in E3SM1 by permitting a faster warming of the upper ocean and a concomitant slower warming of the subsurface ocean. Likewise the stronger AMOC in CESM2 by permitting a slower warming of the upper ocean leads in part to a smaller transient climate response. Thus, while the mean strength of AMOC does not affect the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, it is likely to play an important role in determining the transient climate response on the centennial time scale.

The April 2010 North African heatwave: when the water vapor greenhouse effect drives nighttime temperatures

North Africa experienced a severe heatwave in April 2010 with daily maximum temperatures ( $$T_{max}$$ ) frequently exceeding $$40\,^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$$ and daily minimum temperatures ( $$T_{min}$$ ) over $$27\,^{\circ }\mathrm{C}$$ for more than five consecutive days in extended Saharan and Sahelian areas. Observations show that areas and periods affected by the heatwave correspond to strong positive anomalies of surface incoming longwave fluxes ( $$LW_{in}$$ ) and negative anomalies of incoming shortwave fluxes ( $$SW_{in}$$ ). The latter are explained by clouds in the Sahara, and by both clouds and dust loadings in the Sahel. However, the strong positive anomalies of $$LW_{in}$$ are hardly related to cloud or aerosol radiative effects. An analysis based on climate-model simulations (CNRM-AM) complemented by a specially-designed conceptual soil-atmospheric surface layer model (SARAWI) shows that this positive anomaly of $$LW_{in}$$ is mainly due to a water vapor greenhouse effect. SARAWI, which represents the two processes driving temperatures, namely turbulence and longwave radiative transfer between the soil and the atmospheric surface layer, points to the crucial impact of synoptic low-level advection of water vapor on $$T_{min}$$ . By increasing the atmospheric infrared emissivity, the advected water vapor dramatically increases the nocturnal radiative warming of the soil surface, then in turn reducing the nocturnal cooling of the atmospheric surface layer, which remains warm throughout the night. Over Western Sahel, this advection is related to an early northward incursion of the monsoon flow. Over Sahara, the anomalously high precipitable water is due to a tropical plume event. Both observations and simulations support this major influence of the low-level water vapor radiative effect on $$T_{min}$$ during this spring heatwave.

Surface Ocean Warming Around Australia Driven by Interannual Variability and Long‐Term Trends in Southern Hemisphere Westerlies

AbstractThe ocean surface temperature and sea level response around Australia to both interannual variability as well as observed and projected changes in surface winds is presented. A hindcast ocean experiment shows interannual southward shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds drive ocean surface warming events in the South Australian Basin. Twenty‐first century climate and ocean projections in an ensemble of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models show that wind trends could play a role comparable in magnitude to that of radiative warming in driving surface ocean temperature change in this region. To evaluate the wind's role in these projected changes, we use an ocean experiment perturbed by the projected end of 21st century wind anomalies to show that the wind trends alone can generate approximately half of the ocean surface warming and sea level rise predicted by the CMIP5 models in the Tasman Sea.

Laminated Fibrous Membrane Inspired by Polar Bear Pelt for Outdoor Personal Radiation Management.

Outdoor cold stress often causes an undesired threat to public health, but devising an efficient strategy to achieve localized outdoor warming of the human body is still a great challenge. Polar bear pelt can absorb sunlight and reflect thermal radiation generated inside the body, which helps in adapting to the cold environment. Inspired by the radiation control strategy of the polar bear pelt, this study reports a porous Ag/cellulose/carbon nanotube (CNT)-laminated nanofiber membrane, in which one side of the cellulose basement membrane is coated with CNTs using a foam finishing process and the Ag layer is deposited on the other side by magnetron sputtering. Based on the high solar radiation absorptivity from CNT coating and the high infrared radiation reflectivity from Ag coating, the biomimetic membrane provides radiation warming by maximizing the heat input from the sun and minimizing the human radiation heat output. Because of excellent electrical conductivity, the Ag layer can work as a wearable heater to induce fast thermal response and uniform electroheating for extra warmth under a low supplied voltage. Moreover, the biomimetic membrane possesses porosity, hydrophilicity, breathability, flexibility, and mechanical stability, suggesting its huge potential for outdoor personal thermal management. Because of their versatility, the applications of the biomimetic membranes may be extended to wearable electronics, smart garments, and thermal control materials.

Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting substances

The rapid warming of the Arctic, perhaps the most striking evidence of climate change, is believed to have arisen from increases in atmospheric concentrations of GHGs1 since the Industrial Revolution. While the dominant role of carbon dioxide is undisputed, another important set of anthropogenic GHGs was also being emitted over the second half of the twentieth century: ozone-depleting2 substances (ODS). These compounds, in addition to causing the ozone hole over Antarctica, have long been recognized3 as powerful GHGs. However, their contribution to Arctic warming has not been quantified. We do so here by analysing ensembles of climate model integrations specifically designed for this purpose, spanning the period 1955–2005 when atmospheric concentrations of ODS increased rapidly. We show that, when ODS are kept fixed, forced Arctic surface warming and forced sea-ice loss are only half as large as when ODS are allowed to increase. We also demonstrate that the large impact of ODS on the Arctic occurs primarily via direct radiative warming, not via ozone depletion. Our findings reveal a substantial contribution of ODS to recent Arctic warming, and highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol as a major climate change-mitigation treaty. Arctic warming is attributed to GHGs and feedbacks, but the specific contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODS)—also potent GHGs—has never been quantified. Here, model simulations suggest ODS contributed 0.8°C of Arctic warming and led to considerable sea-ice loss during the period 1955–2005. [This summary has been amended to reflect the addendum published 28 January 2020]

Observed changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation for 1980–2018

Previous work has examined the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) changes for 1980–2009 based on satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU/AMSU) lower-stratospheric temperature (TLS) observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Here we examine the BDC changes for the longer period now available (1980–2018), which also allows analysis of both the ozone depletion (1980–1999) and ozone healing (2000–2018) periods. We provide observational evidence that the annual mean BDC accelerated for 1980–1999 but decelerated for 2000–2018, with the changes largely driven by the Southern Hemisphere (SH), which might be partly contributed by the effects of ozone depletion and healing. We also show that the annual mean BDC has accelerated in the last 40 years (at the 90% confidence level) with a relative strengthening of ∼1.7% per decade. This overall acceleration was driven by both Northern Hemisphere (40%) and SH (60%) cells. Significant SH radiative warming is also identified in September for 2000–2018 after excluding the year 2002 when a very rare SH stratospheric sudden warming occurred, supporting the view that healing of the Antarctic ozone layer has now begun to occur during the month of September.

A Recent Systematic Increase in Vapor Pressure Deficit over Tropical South America

We show a recent increasing trend in Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) over tropical South America in dry months with values well beyond the range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the undisturbed Preindustrial climate and the climate over 850–1850 perturbed with natural external forcing. This trend is systematic in the southeast Amazon but driven by episodic droughts (2005, 2010, 2015) in the northwest, with the highest recoded VPD since 1979 for the 2015 drought. The univariant detection analysis shows that the observed increase in VPD cannot be explained by greenhouse-gas-induced (GHG) radiative warming alone. The bivariate attribution analysis demonstrates that forcing by elevated GHG levels and biomass burning aerosols are attributed as key causes for the observed VPD increase. We further show that There is a negative trend in evaporative fraction in the southeast Amazon, where lack of atmospheric moisture, reduced precipitation together with higher incoming solar radiation (~7% decade−1 cloud-cover reduction) influences the partitioning of surface energy fluxes towards less evapotranspiration. The VPD increase combined with the decrease in evaporative fraction are the first indications of positive climate feedback mechanisms, which we show that will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change.

Structural changes and variability of the ITCZ induced by radiation\u2013cloud\u2013convection\u2013circulation interactions: inferences from the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (GMMF) experiments

In this paper, we have investigated the impact of radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interaction (RC3I) on structural changes and variability of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, where cloud processes are super-parameterized, i.e., explicitly resolved with 2-D cloud resolving models embedded in each coarse grid of the host Goddard Earth Observing System-Version 5 global climate model. Experiments have been conducted under prescribed sea surface temperature conditions for 10 years (2007–2016), with and without cloud radiation feedback in the atmosphere, respectively. Diagnostic analyses separately for January and July show that RC3I leads to an enhanced and expanded Hadley Circulation characterized by (1) a quasi-uniform warming and moistening of the tropical atmosphere and a sharpening of the ITCZ with enhanced deep convection, more intense precipitation and higher clouds, (2) extended drying of the tropical marginal convective zones, and extratropical mid- to lower troposphere, and (3) a cooling of the polar regions, with increased baroclinicity and midlatitude storm track activities. Computations based on the zonal mean thermodynamic energy balance equation show that the radiative warming and cooling are strongly balanced by local adiabatic processes associated with changes in large-scale vertical motions, as well as horizontal atmospheric heat transport. In the tropics, enhanced short-wave absorption and longwave water vapor greenhouse effects by high clouds play key roles in providing strong positive feedback to the tropospheric warming. In the extratropics, increased atmospheric heat transport associated with changes in the Hadley circulation is balanced by strong longwave cooling above, and warming below due to increased high clouds. We also find a strong positive correlation between daily and pentad heavy rain in the ITCZ core, and expansion of the drier zones coupled to a contraction of the highly convective zones in the ITCZ, indicating a strong tendency RC3I-induced convective aggregation in tropical clouds i.e., wet-regions-get-wetter and contracted, and dry-areas-get-drier and expanded.

Enhancement of vertical cloud-induced radiative heating in East Asian monsoon circulation derived from CloudSat-CALIPSO observations

ABSTRACT Improving the understanding of cloud–radiation–monsoon interactions is difficult due to the limited knowledge regarding the impacts of vertical cloud radiative forcing on monsoon circulation. Here, we focus on the annual cycle of the vertical structure of cloud-induced radiative heating (CRH) to evaluate further their impacts on the East Asian monsoon circulation (100°–140° E, 20°–45° N) derived from satellite observations and reanalysis datasets. Entire troposphere and lower stratosphere are heated by vertical CRH, with the peak reaching 1 K day−1 at the mid-level troposphere (4–10 km) during summer. Although radiative warming occurs below 3 km from the prevailing stratocumulus, widespread weak radiative cooling (approximately −0.2 K day−1) occurs at a wide vertical range above 3 km during winter. Consequently, the wind vector variations resulting from vertical CRH highly coincide with the monsoon circulation, leading to the increase in wind speeds by 1.8 and 0.5 m s−1 during summer and winter, respectively, while a weakly negative influence (about 0.3 m s−1) occurs at the low-level troposphere below 3 km during winter. Although high clouds, stratiform clouds, and stratocumulus dominate these wind vector variations, deep convective clouds generate the strongest updraft (up to 7 m s−1) amongst all cloud categories despite their low occurrence frequency. Results highlight the important enhancement of vertical CRH to East Asian monsoon circulation by perturbing the vertical structure of heating rate.

On the Shoulders of Giants: Continuing the Legacy of Large-Scale Ecosystem Manipulation Experiments in Puerto Rico

There is a long history of experimental research in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. These experiments have addressed questions about biotic thresholds, assessed why communities vary along natural gradients, and have explored forest responses to a range of both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic disturbances. Combined, these studies cover many of the major disturbances that affect tropical forests around the world and span a wide range of topics, including the effects of forest thinning, ionizing radiation, hurricane disturbance, nitrogen deposition, drought, and global warming. These invaluable studies have greatly enhanced our understanding of tropical forest function under different disturbance regimes and informed the development of management strategies. Here we summarize the major field experiments that have occurred within the Luquillo Experimental Forest. Taken together, results from the major experiments conducted in the Luquillo Experimental Forest demonstrate a high resilience of Puerto Rico’s tropical forests to a variety of stressors.