Coal and gas outbursts pose significant threats to underground personnel, making the development of accurate prediction models crucial for reducing casualties. By addressing the challenges of highly nonlinear relationships among predictive parameters, poor interpretability of models, and limited sample data in existing studies, this paper proposes an interpretable Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves–Transformer–Support Vector Machine (AFT-Transformer-SVM) model with high predictive accuracy. The Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves (AFT) algorithm is employed to optimise a Transformer-based feature extraction, thereby reducing the degree of nonlinearity among sample data. A Transformer-SVM model is constructed, wherein the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model provides negative feedback to refine the Transformer feature extraction, enhancing the prediction accuracy of coal and gas outbursts. Various classification assessment methods, such as TP, TN, FP, FN tables, and SHAP analysis, are utilised to improve the interpretability of the model. Additionally, the permutation feature importance (PFI) method is applied to conduct a sensitivity analysis, elucidating the relationship between the sample data and outburst risks. Through a comparative analysis with algorithms such as eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), radial basis function networks (RBFNs), and Bayesian classifiers, the proposed method demonstrates superior accuracy and effectively predicts coal and gas outburst risks, achieving 100% accuracy in the sample dataset. The influence of parameters on the model is analysed, highlighting that the coal seam gas content is the primary factor driving the outburst risks. The proposed approach provides technical support for coal and gas outburst predictions across different mines, enhancing emergency response and prevention capabilities for underground mining operations.
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