Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Research Articles

Improving Explainability of Deep Learning for Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Estimation

AbstractMachine learning‐based approaches demonstrate a significant potential in radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) applications. In contrast to conventional methods that depend on local raindrop size distributions, deep learning (DL) can establish an effective mapping from three‐dimensional radar observations to ground rain rates. However, the lack of transparency in DL models poses challenges toward understanding the underlying physical mechanisms that drive their outcomes. This study aims to develop a DL‐based QPE system and provide a physical explanation of radar precipitation estimation process. This research is designed by employing a deep neural network consisting of two modules. The first module is a quantitative precipitation estimation network that has the capability to learn precipitation patterns and spatial distribution from multidimensional polarimetric radar observations. The second module introduces a quantitative precipitation estimation shapley additive explanations method to quantify the influence of each radar observable on the model estimate across various precipitation intensities.

Towerpy: An open-source toolbox for processing polarimetric weather radar data

Weather radars produce high spatial and temporal resolution observations of precipitation events. Over the years, weather radar operators have updated their radar networks to exploit the latest technological advancements. One of the most significant improvements in this matter was providing the radars with polarimetric capabilities, as this allows the radars to gather more detailed information about the precipitation targets’ shape, size, phase, and orientation. The radar research community has been working along with these advancements to develop robust algorithms that boost the radar data applications, such as radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), rain microphysics analysis, nowcasting of precipitation or numerical weather prediction based on radar measurements. Some of these algorithms have been implemented in open-source toolboxes that aim to facilitate the processing and quality control of radar data produced by different radar systems. However, these open-source projects have not yet included a chain process tailored to the UK radar research context. This paper presents a TOolbox to process WEather Radar data in PYthon (Towerpy). Towerpy can read, process and display polarimetric radar data from different radar systems, but it is specially customised for data produced by the UK Met Office radar network. Towerpy is built upon robust algorithms that cover various aspects of the radar data quality control (e.g., calibration of radar measurements, identification of non-meteorological echoes, attenuation correction, among others) and the computation of radar rainfall rates. Additionally, a radar processing chain was devised using the Towerpy modules to produce radar rainfall estimates. Raw polarimetric radar measurements collected by the UK Met Office radar network throughout the UK’s wettest day on record were used as input for this processing chain. The results confirm that Towerpy is a powerful radar research tool and demonstrate its ability to generate functional radar QPE that can be used to improve operational radar rainfall products.

Improving CINRAD Radar QPE Through GPM‐DPR Reflectivity Bias Correction

AbstractReflectivity bias of ground‐based weather radar (GR) is a common error source that can lead to biases in quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). In this study, the Dual‐frequency Precipitation Radar onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission Core Observatory (GPM‐DPR) is used to correct GR reflectivity bias. The reflectivity bias correction comprehensively considers variations in GR‐DPR reflectivity difference associated with radar frequency difference, data matching approach, precipitation type, GR orographic beam blockage, attenuation, and sample size. The criteria to perform a robust GR‐DPR comparison are presented. Disdrometer validation, based on eight typical rain events from April to August 2019, demonstrates that GPM‐DPR can effectively reduce GR reflectivity bias to ±1 dB. For the period from June to August 2021, the reflectivity correction method is applied to 17 operational GRs. The multiradar QPE shows a significant increase in correlation coefficient (from 0.62 to 0.71), and decreases in relative mean bias (from −0.28 to −0.19) and root mean square error (from 3.96 to 3.54 mm) compared to rain gauges. These results confirm that GPM‐DPR can effectively correct the reflectivity biases of a GR network and improve multiradar QPE accuracy and consistency.

Spatial Variability of Raindrop Size Distribution at Beijing City Scale and Its Implications for Polarimetric Radar QPE

Understanding the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) is crucial to improve our knowledge of the microphysical processes of precipitation and to improve the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). In this study, the spatial variability of DSD in different regions of Beijing and its influence on radar QPE are analyzed using 11 disdrometers. The DSD data are categorized into three regions: Urban, suburban, and mountainous according to their locations. The DSD exhibits evidently different characteristics in the urban, suburban, and mountain regions of Beijing. The average raindrop diameter is smaller in the urban region compared to the suburban region. The average rain rate and raindrop number concentration are lower in the mountainous region compared to both urban and suburban regions. The difference in DSD between urban and suburban regions is due to the difference in DSD for the same precipitation types, while the difference in DSD between mountain and plains (i.e., urban and suburban regions) is the combined effect of the convection/stratiform ratio and the difference of DSD for the same precipitation types. Three DSD-based polarimetric radar QPE estimators were retrieved and estimated. Among these three QPE estimators, R(ZH), R(Kdp), and R(Kdp, ZDR), R(Kdp, ZDR) performs best, followed by R(Kdp), and R(ZH) performs worst. R(Kdp) is more sensitive to the representative parameters, while R(ZH) and R(Kdp, ZDR) are more sensitive to observational error and systematic bias (i.e., calibration).

Correction of Fused Rainfall Data Based on Identification and Exclusion of Anomalous Rainfall Station Data

High-quality rainfall data are crucial for accurately forecasting flash floods and runoff simulations. However, traditional correction methods often overlook errors in rainfall-monitoring data. We established a screening system to identify anomalous stations using the Hampel method, Grubbs criterion, analysis of surrounding measurement stations, and radar-assisted verification. Three rainfall data-fusion methods were used to fuse rainfall station data with radar quantitative precipitation estimation data; the accuracies of the fused data products with and without anomalous data identification were compared. Validation was performed using four 2012 rainfall events in Hebei Province. The 08:00–19:00 July 3 rainfall event had the highest number of anomalous stations (11.5% of the total), while the 01:00–17:00 August 9 event had the lowest number (7.8%). By comparing stations deemed to be anomalous with stations that were actually anomalous, we determined that the accuracy of reference station determination using Hampel’s method and Grubbs’ test was 94.2%. Radar-assisted validation improved the average accuracy of anomalous station identification during the four typical rainfall events from 89.7 to 93.7%. Excluding anomalous data also significantly impacted the efficacy of rainfall-data fusion, as it improved the quality of the rainfall station data. Among the performance indicators, 95% improved after the exclusion of anomalous data for all four rainfall events.

Improving the utility of weather radar for the spatial frequency analysis of extreme precipitation

Spatially seamless quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from weather radars have the potential to address key limitations of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations derived from sparse rain gage measurements. However, this potential has not been yet fully explored. Here, a methodological framework is designed for the spatial frequency analysis of extreme precipitation (P) with radar QPEs that leads to realistic quantile patterns while reducing the sampling uncertainty. The framework was applied with 19 years of QPEs from 1-h, 4-km Stage IV reanalysis from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network and robustly tested against (1) a network of 204 high-resolution rain gages in central Arizona with one of the largest densities and spatial coverages in the world, and (2) extreme P quantiles from NOAA Atlas 14. It was first showed that (1) the generalized extreme value (GEV) is a suitable distribution to model the series of annual P maxima of gage records and radar QPEs across multiple durations from 1 h to 24 h, and (2) correcting the bias of the GEV shape parameter estimates due to the short sample size is a critical step. Spatial estimates of extreme P quantiles were then obtained through a hierarchical approach based on the index-flood method and the spatial smoothening (interpolation) of the GEV parameters estimated from radar QPEs (gage records). For each parameter, the most effective interpolation method was identified that limits the uncertainty caused by the short sample size and captures the local variability of extreme P. The extreme P quantiles generated from radar QPEs exhibited similar or, in some cases, higher accuracy than those generated by interpolating sparse gage information and exhibit more realistic patterns. While derived in central Arizona, the insights of this work are useful to incorporate radar QPEs into operational IDF curves in any region of the world monitored by weather radars.

Variability of sampling adjustment factors for extreme rainfall in Germany

The sampling adjustment factor (SAF) can correct the underestimation of fixed time interval maxima (F-Maxima) relative to maxima of moving time windows (M-Maxima) as a direct consequence of temporal discretization of time series. Radar data can help to understand the significance of using moving window aggregation rather than fixed window. Here, we investigate SAFs for two gridded radar quantitative precipitation estimates from the German Meteorological Service (RADKLIM-RW and RADKLIM-YW, DWD 2018) with different temporal resolutions (5 min and hourly) and a spatial resolution of 1 km times 1 km from 2001 to 2016. For each grid cell’s time series within Germany, the overall maximum intensities per chosen duration were derived with (1) moving and (2) fixed window aggregation. Correction factors (SAF) from fixed to moving window were retrieved. The findings of this study partly match previous findings, more for the 5-min product than for the hourly product. No clear dependency on topography or season could be derived from the analysis. It showed that high SAF are usually related to high(er) actual rainfall values. The study emphasises the probabilistic nature of the rainfall maxima correction and shows that it is important to not only consider average SAFs, but also take an in-depth look at the distribution when correcting maxima. As a consequence, design precipitation as used, e.g., in context of flash or urban floods could profit from spatially adjusted or uniform scaling, depending on the characteristics found in the spatial distribution of the SAFs.

A new approach for quantitative precipitation estimation from radar reflectivity using a gated recurrent unit network

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) utilizing radar data plays a vital role in weather monitoring, hydrological modelling and prediction. In previous research, some regression techniques such as the reflectivity (Z) - rainfall (R) relationship and artificial intelligence methods were employed for radar QPE; however, the estimation results remain limited the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall results in large errors in radar QPE. Recently, an emerging deep learning approach that can be applied in hydrological areas for QPE, namely, the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network method, has been used. GRU networks have evolved from long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, with improved training speed and modelling accuracy. In this research, the GRU network is applied to QPE using the three-dimensional structure of reflectivity from the Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator (3D CAPPI) for an urban catchment in Seoul, South Korea. Simultaneously, a “complete” 3D CAPPI based on a cubic grid of 4 × 4 km2 that is highly suitable for the study area is proposed. Based on the comparison of the results of the GRU model with those of the artificial neural networks (ANNs), recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and LSTM networks, and the Z-R relationship, namely the least-squares model (LSM) for 2 testing strategies including traditional test strategy and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) strategy, the results indicate that the GRU model is superior to other models in radar QPE, with improvements by 3.3 ∼ 46.2%, 25 ∼ 70% and 1.2 ∼ 44.8% in the root mean square error (RMSE), bias and correlation coefficient (CC). This study presents a valuable method for improving the accuracy of radar QPE that can be actively employed in the future.

Estimation of extreme precipitation events in Estonia and Italy using dual-polarization weather radar quantitative precipitation estimations

Abstract. Evaluating extreme rainfall for a certain location is commonly considered when designing stormwater management systems. Rain gauge data are widely used to estimate rainfall intensities for a given return period. However, the poor spatial and temporal resolution of operational gauges is the main limiting factor. Several studies have used rainfall estimates based on weather radar horizontal reflectivity (Zh), but they come with a great caveat: while proven reliable for low or moderate rainfall rates, they are subject to major errors in extreme rainfall and convective cases. It is widely known that C-band weather radar can underestimate precipitation intensity due to signal attenuation or overestimate it due to hail and clutter contamination. From the late 1990s, dual-polarization weather radar started to become operational in the national surveillance radar network in Europe, providing innovative quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on polarimetric variables. This study circumvents Zh shortcomings by using specific differential-phase (Kdp) data from operational dual-polarization C-band weather radars. The rain intensity estimates based on a specific differential-phase data are immune to attenuation and less affected by hail contamination. In this study, for the first time, QPEs based on polarimetric observations by operational C-band weather radars and without any rain gauge adjustments are analyzed. The purpose is to estimate return periods for 1 h rainfall total computed from polarimetric weather radar data using non-adjusted QPEs based on R(Zh,Kdp) data and to compare the results with those derived using R(Zh) and rain gauge data. Only the warm period during the year is considered here, as most of the extreme precipitation events for such a duration occur for both places studied (Italy and Estonia) at this time. Limiting the dataset to warm periods also allows us to use the radar-based rainfall quantitative precipitation estimations, which are more reliable than the snowfall ones. Data from operational dual polarimetric C-band weather radar sites are used from both Italy and Estonia. Given climatologically homogeneous regions, this study demonstrates that polarimetric weather radar observations can provide reliable QPEs compared to single-polarization estimates with respect to rain gauges and that they can provide a reliable estimation of return periods of 1 h rainfall total, even for relatively short time series.

Microphysical Characteristics of Raindrop Size Distribution and Implications for Dual-Polarization Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimations in the Tianshan Mountains, China

In order to improve the understanding of the microphysical characteristics of raindrop size distribution (DSD) under different rainfall rates (R) classes, and broaden the knowledge of the impact of radar wavelengths and R classes on the QPE of dual-polarization radars in the Tianshan Mountains, a typical arid area in China, we investigated the microphysical characteristics of DSD across R classes and dual-polarimetric radar QPE relationships across radar wavelengths and R classes, based on the DSD data from a PARSIVEL2 disdrometer at Zhaosu in the Tianshan Mountains during the summers of 2020 and 2021. As the R class increased, the DSD became wider and flatter. The mean value of the mass-weighted mean diameters (Dm) increased, while the mean value of logarithm normalized intercept parameters (log10 Nw) decreased after increasing from C1 to C3, as the R class increased. The largest contributions to R and the radar reflectivity factor from large raindrops (diameter > 3 mm) accounted for approximately 50% and 97%, respectively, while 84% of the total raindrops were small raindrops (diameter < 1 mm). Dual-polarization radars—horizontal polarization reflectivity (Zh), differential reflectivity (Zdr), and specific differential phase (Kdp)—were retrieved based on the DSD data using the T-matrix scattering method. The DSD-based polarimetric radar QPE relations of a single-parameter (R(Zh), R(Kdp)), and double-parameters (R(Zh,Zdr), R(Kdp,Zdr)) on the S-, C-, and X-bands were derived and evaluated. Overall, the performance of the R(Kdp) (R(Kdp,Zdr)) scheme was better than that of R(Zh) (R(Zh,Zdr)) for the QPE in the three bands. Furthermore, we have for the first time confirmed and quantified the performance differences in the QPE relationship of dual-polarization radars under different schemes, radar wavelengths, and R classes in typical arid areas of China. Therefore, selecting an appropriate dual-polarization radar band and QPE scheme for different R classes is necessary to improve the QPE ability compared with an independent scheme under all R classes.

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Improve Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Precipitation Estimates in the Western United States

Abstract The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system produces a suite of hydrometeorological products that are widely used for applications such as flash flood warning operations, water resource management, and climatological studies. The MRMS radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products have greater challenges in the western United States compared to the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS due to terrain-related blockages and gaps in radar coverage. Further, orographic enhancement of precipitation often occurs, which is highly variable in space and time and difficult to accurately capture with physically based approaches. A deep learning approach was applied in this study to understand the correlations between several interacting variables and to obtain a more accurate precipitation estimation in these scenarios. The model presented here is a convolutional neural network (CNN), which uses spatial information from small grids of several radar variables to predict an estimated precipitation value at the central grid point. Several case analyses are presented along with a yearlong statistical evaluation. The CNN model 24-h QPE shows higher accuracy than the MRMS radar QPE for several cool season atmospheric river events. Areas of consistent improvement from the CNN model are highlighted in the discussion along with areas where the model can be further improved. The initial findings from this work help set the foundation for further exploration of machine learning techniques and products for precipitation estimation as part of the MRMS operational system. Significance Statement This study explores the development and use of a deep learning model to generate precipitation fields in the complex terrain of the western United States. Generally, the model is able to improve on the statistical performance of existing radar-based precipitation estimation methods for several case studies and over a long-term period in 2021. We explore the patterns associated with certain areas of strong performance and suggest potential means of improving areas with weaker performance. These initial results indicate the potential of deep learning to supplement radar-based approaches in areas with observational limitations.

Dual-Pol VPR Corrections for Improved Operational Radar QPE in MRMS

Abstract The radar bright band is caused by melting ice crystals, and results in inflated reflectivity observations. If uncorrected, the bright band can result in large errors in radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). In the operational Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system up to version 12.1, the effects of the bright band are corrected through the use of a reflectivity-only, tilt-based apparent vertical profile of reflectivity (tilt-VPR). This study utilizes dual-polarization (dual-pol) radar observations to improve the tilt-VPR methodology. To accomplish this, a brightband area delineation was developed within the MRMS framework and the brightband top and bottom heights were identified for individual tilts of radar data. This information was used to develop a radially dependent dual-pol VPR (dpVPR) model that can better correct reflectivity in situations of nonisotropic bright bands and low brightband events. This algorithm has been tested on 14 varying brightband events across the CONUS and compared with the tilt-VPR and the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler Level-3 Digital Precipitation Rate (DPR) products. The radially dependent dpVPR correction provided a more accurate detection of brightband areas and a more effective reduction in QPE errors within and above the bright band than the tilt-VPR and DPR QPEs, especially for precipitation events with low melting layers or with strong variability of vertical motions. The brightband delineation and dpVPR methodology are also evaluated in the real-time MRMS testbed for their robustness and computational efficiency and has been transitioned into operations in 2022.

Microphysical processes of super typhoon Lekima (2019) and their impacts on polarimetric radar remote sensing of precipitation

Abstract. The complex precipitation microphysics associated with super typhoon Lekima (2019) and its potential impacts on the consistency of multi-source datasets and radar quantitative precipitation estimation were disentangled using a suite of in situ and remote sensing observations around the waterlogged area in the groove windward slope (GWS) of Yandang Mountain (YDM) and Kuocang Mountain, China. The main findings include the following: (i) the quality control processing for radar and disdrometers, which collect raindrop size distribution (DSD) data, effectively enhances the self-consistency between radar measurements, such as radar reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and the specific differential phase (KDP), as well as the consistency between radar, disdrometers, and gauges. (ii) The microphysical processes, in which breakup overwhelms coalescence in the coalescence–breakup balance of precipitation particles, noticeably make radar measurements prone to be breakup-dominated in radar volume gates, which accounts for the phenomenon where the high number concentration rather than the large size of drops contributes more to a given attenuation-corrected ZH (ZHC) and the significant deviation of attenuation-corrected ZDR (ZDRC) from its expected values (Z^DR) estimated by DSD-simulated ZDR–ZH relationships. (iii) The twin-parameter radar rainfall estimates based on measured ZH (ZHM) and ZDR (ZDRM), and their corrected counterparts ZHC and ZDRC, i.e., R(ZHM, ZDRM) and R(ZHC, ZDRC), both tend to overestimate rainfall around the GWS of YDM, mainly ascribed to the unique microphysical process in which the breakup-dominated small-sized drops above transition to the coalescence-dominated large-sized drops falling near the surface. (iv) The improved performance of R(ZHC, Z^DR) is attributed to the utilization of Z^DR, which equals physically converting breakup-dominated measurements in radar volume gates to their coalescence-dominated counterparts, and this also benefits from the better self-consistency between ZHC, Z^DR, and KDP, as well as their consistency with the surface counterparts.

Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on the Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Network and Echo-Top Data

Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Based on the Gated Recurrent Unit Neural Network and Echo-Top Data

Geostationary Precipitation Estimates by PDF Matching Technique over the Asia-Pacific and Its Improvement by Incorporating with Surface Data

An Infrared (IR)-passive microwave (PMW) blended technique is developed to derive precipitation estimates over the Asia-Pacific domain through calibrating the temperature of brightness blackbody from the Japanese Himawari-8 satellite to precipitation derived from the combined PMW retrievals (currently MWCOMB2x) based on the probability density function (PDF)-matching concept. Called IRQPE, the technique is modified and fine-tuned to better represent the spatially rapidly changing cloud–precipitation relationship over the target region with PDF-matching tables established over a refined spatial resolution of 0.5° lat/lon grid. The evaluation of the IRQPE shows broadly comparable performance to that of the CMORPH2 in detecting rainfall systems of large and medium-scales at a resolution of 1.0° degree. Rainfall variations from the two datasets over El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation active convective centers show well consistency of each other, suggesting usefulness of the IRQPE in climate applications. Two approaches for regional improvements are explored by establishing the PDF tables for a further refined spatial resolution and by replacing the PMW-based precipitation ‘truth’ fields with the surface gauge data to overcome the shortcoming of PMW-based retrievals in capturing orographic rainfall over the Taiwan area. The results show significant improvements. The rainfall patterns of revised the IRQPE at a resolution of 0.1° degree on above the 5-day timescale correlate well with the Taiwan official surface ground truth called the QPESUMS, which is a gridded set of gauge-corrected Radar quantitative precipitation estimations. The root mean square error of the revised IRQPE on estimating the Taiwan overall land rainfall is close to Radar-derived rainfall accumulations on a 30-day time-scale.

Extracting 3-D Radar Features to Improve Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Complex Terrain based on Deep Learning Neural Networks

Abstract This paper proposes a new quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) technique to provide accurate rainfall estimates in complex terrain, where conventional QPE has limitations. The operational radar QPE in Taiwan is mainly based on the simplified relationship between radar reflectivity Z and rain rate R [R(Z) relation] and only utilizes the single-point lowest available echo to estimate rain rates, leading to low accuracy in complex terrain. Here, we conduct QPE using deep learning that extracts features from 3-D radar reflectivities to address the above issues. Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used to analyze contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) to generate the QPE. CNN models are trained on existing rain gauges in northern and eastern Taiwan with the three-year data during 2015–17 and validated and tested using 2018 data. The weights of heavy rains (≧10 mm h-1) are increased in the model loss calculation to handle the unbalanced rainfall data and improve accuracy. Results show that the CNN outperforms the R(Z) relation based on the 2018 rain-gauge data. Furthermore, this research proposes methods to conduct 2-D gridded QPE at every pixel by blending estimates from various trained CNN models. Verification based on independent rain gauges shows that the CNN QPE solves the underestimation of the R(Z) relation in mountainous areas. Case studies are presented to visualize the results, showing that the CNN QPE generates better small-scale rainfall features and more accurate precipitation information. This deep learning QPE technique may be helpful for the disaster prevention of small-scale flash floods in complex terrain.

Combining radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) with distributed hydrological model for controlling transit of flash-flood upstream of crowded human habitats in Romania

Combining radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) with distributed hydrological model for controlling transit of flash-flood upstream of crowded human habitats in Romania

Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Algorithm Based on Precipitation Classification and Dynamical Z-R Relationship

The choice of Z-R relationship is an essential source of error in radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE). A QPE algorithm combining the Optimization process of precipitation Classification and Dynamical adjustments (OCD) is proposed to improve the accuracy of QPE in Yinchuan city, China. A detailed evaluation and study of Z = 300R1.4 (fixed Z-R), Optimization Processing (OP), Optimization processing of Dynamical Adjustments (ODA) and OCD were performed using various evaluation metrics. The results show that ODA and OCD can significantly reduce the error of QPE, with OCD being the best estimator, reaching a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.7 and reducing mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) by 31% and 34%, respectively. OCD outperforms other algorithms in terms of MAE and RMSE for different rain rates (RR), and the various assessment metrics at hourly scales are also more concentrated in reasonable intervals. OP gives fair results at weaker rain rates (0.2 ≤ RR < 8 mm/h) but underestimates rainfall more incorrectly at stronger rain rates (8 mm/h ≤ RR). Both the OCD and ODA provide a more significant improvement in the estimation of the area and magnitude of strong rainfall, with the OCD providing a better description of the local characteristics of the rainfall distribution, further demonstrating the advantages of the ODA.

Evaluating the Influence of Multisource Typhoon Precipitation Data on Multiscale Urban Pluvial Flood Modeling

Based on station precipitation observations, radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE), and radar fusion data during Typhoon Fitow (2013), the influence of multisource precipitation data on multiscale urban typhoon pluvial flood modeling is studied. Using Shanghai, China, as the study area, a simplified 2D hydrodynamic model is applied to simulations. Combined with actual flood incidents reported by the public and soil moisture data, we perform multiscale verifications and determine the applicability of three precipitation datasets in the modeling. The results are as follows: (1) At the city scale, although QPE have higher spatial resolution, these estimates are lower than station observations. Radar fusion data have both high accuracy and high spatial resolution. For flood depths above 5 cm, the radar fusion precipitation scenario can improve the matching probability by 6%. (2) At the neighborhood scale, the radar fusion precipitation scenario can effectively mitigate the problems of an uneven spatial distribution of stations and a weak QPE to accurately capture pluvial details. (3) One fixed-point assessment shows that different precipitation data have little influence on the temporal characteristics of the modeling result—all three types of data can accurately reflect flood occurrence times. This work can provide a scientific basis for constructing effective urban pluvial flood monitoring systems.

Statistical Characteristics of Warm Season Raindrop Size Distribution in the Beibu Gulf, South China

Raindrop size distribution (DSD) can be used to improve the accuracy of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and further understand the microphysical process of precipitation; however, its spatio-temporal characteristics vary with different climates, rain types, and geographical locations. Due to the lack of observations, the DSD characteristics in the Beibu Gulf, especially at the rainfall center of Guangxi in South China, is poorly understood. In this paper, these regional DSD characteristics were analyzed during the warm season with an upgraded version of the OTT Particle Size Velocity (Parsivel) (OTT2) disdrometer. The DSD datasets from June to October 2020 and March to May 2021 were grouped into convective and stratiform precipitation by rain rate (R). The rainfall parameters were calculated from DSDs to further understand the rain characteristics. The results showed that: (1) the regional DSDs feature the lowest concentration of largest-sized drops when compared with the statistical results for other areas such as Zhuhai in South China, Nanjing in East China, Hubei province in Central China and Beijing in North China; (2) the raindrop spectra have an excellent fit with the three-parameter gamma distribution, particularly in regard to the medium-size raindrops; (3) the μ–Λ relation is closer to the coastal regions than the inland area of South China; (4) the localized Z−R relations differ greatly for convective rainfall (Z = 202.542 R1.553) and stratiform rainfall (Z = 328.793 R1.363). This study is the first study on DSDs in the Beibu Gulf region. The above findings will provide a better understanding of the microphysical nature of surface precipitation for different rain types along the Beibu Gulf in southern China, which may improve precipitation retrievals from remote sensing observations.