The transformation of marine and glaciomarine clay deposits into high sensitive and quick clays is largely dependent on the influence of local and regional geologic history and the resulting stratigraphy. The general conditions that facilitate quick-clay development are well known from numerous laboratory investigations during the last century, but their local and regional in-field variation is less understood. In this study, the geographic distribution of quick clay in SW Sweden is predicted using a multicriteria evaluation model that incorporates both qualitative information (established theory and expert judgment concerning the influences on both quick-clay development and the stratigraphic and geomorphologic distribution of sediment types) and observational data (maps of surficial deposits, geotechnical records and digital elevation data). This information duality cannot be avoided if knowledge from different disciplines is utilized. Considering this, model transparency is important for improvements and for characterizing its reliability for risk analysis. The model was constructed stepwise by an initial parameterization with subsequent hierarchical structuring, weighting and standardization of criteria, before running the full analysis. Comparisons between regional model results and geotechnically documented localities have yielded promising results concerning the model’s ability to predict general trends. However, the large natural and site-specific variability of clay sensitivities is not always captured by the model. These deviations are examined and suggestions are given for minimizing their effect. Applications of model methodology and results are briefly discussed.
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