Quasi-stationary Solar Wind Research Articles

Modeling of Solar Wind Disturbances Associated with Coronal Mass Ejections and Verification of the Forecast Results

Solar wind (SW) disturbances associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause significant geomagnetic storms, which may lead to the malfunction or damage of sensitive on-ground and space-based critical infrastructure. CMEs are formed in the solar corona, and then propagate to the Earth through the heliosphere as Interplanetary CME (ICME) structures. We describe the main principles in development with the online, semi-empirical system known as the Space Monitoring Data Center (SMDC) of the Moscow State University, which forecasts arrival of ICMEs to Earth. The initial parameters of CMEs (speeds, startup times, location of the source) are determined using data from publicly available catalogs based on solar images from space telescopes and coronagraphs. After selecting the events directed to Earth, the expected arrival time and speed of ICMEs at the L1 point are defined using the Drag-Based model (DBM), which describes propagation of CMEs through the heliosphere under interaction with the modeled quasi-stationary SW. We present the test results of the ICME forecast in the falling phase of Cycle 24 obtained with the basic version of SMDC in comparison with results of other models, its optimization and estimations of the confidence intervals, and probabilities of a successful forecast.

Medium-term prediction of the fluence of relativistic electrons in geostationary orbit using solar wind streams forecast based on solar observations

The new approaches to the modelling of the Sun-solar wind-magnetosphere-radiation belts chain and their implementation at MSU's Space weather center (Space Monitoring Data Center, SMDC) are presented. The main idea is to use data from medium-term (3–5 days) forecasts of the speed of quasi-stationary solar wind streams based on data obtained from solar images in the UV wavelength range to improve the quality of forecasts of the magnetospheric factors of the space environment. An operational model for predicting the daily fluence of relativistic electrons (>2 MeV) in the Earth's outer radiation belt has been developed, with the extended set of input parameters that include the forecast of the solar wind velocity. To validate the model, the period from October 11, 2016 to February 18, 2017 was considered, during which the Sun made several revolutions and it was possible to observe the evolution of coronal holes and the development of solar sporadic phenomena. The arrival of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes to the Earth's magnetosphere, as well as, as impact of coronal mass ejections, provoked geomagnetic disturbances of various intensity, and caused significant variations of the electron fluxes of the Earth's outer radiation belt. SMDC website implements solar wind model based on the data of solar observations by the AIA instrument of the SDO space observatory at wavelengths of 19.3 and 21.1 nm that forecasts the daily fluence of relativistic electrons (E > 2 MeV) in geostationary orbit. It is shown that the use of the results of medium-term forecasting of the solar wind speed as an input parameter in the daily electron fluence forecast model can significantly improve its quality with a forecast horizon of up to 4 days.

Use of the DBM Model to the Predict of Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections to the Earth

This paper analyzes the results of modeling coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation in 2010–2011 obtained using input data from different sources: CME catalogs SEEDS and CACTus, and predictions of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind fluxes, as an environment, through which CMEs propagate. As the model of quasi-stationary solar wind fluxes, the model for predicting the velocity of the solar wind of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Moscow State University, operating online, is used. The CME prediction is carried out using the Simple Drag-Based Model. A comparison was performed between the ICME arrival time and their velocities obtained when modeling with data from the open ICME catalogs: the Richardson and Cane ICME catalog and the GMU CME List. Based on the comparison, it was concluded that a more accurate prediction for the growth phase of the 24th solar activity cycle was obtained using data on CME parameters from the CACTus database. The obtained errors in predicting the ICME parameters are comparable with the errors of other existing models.

Analysis of Quasistationary Solar Wind Stream Forecasts for 2010–2019

Analysis of Quasistationary Solar Wind Stream Forecasts for 2010–2019

Анализ результатов прогнозирования скорости квазистационарных потоков солнечного ветра за период 2010—2019 гг.

A real-time model for predicting the quasistationary solar wind speed at the near-Earth orbit is presented. The forecast of the high-speed solar wind stream velocity is obtained with an empirical model linking the areas of coronal holes to the solar wind speed. The forecast of the slow solar wind is based on data on the observed solar wind speed from the previous solar rotation. Over the whole analyzed period from May 2010 to December 2019, the coefficient of correlation between the observed and predicted solar wind speed values is 0.45, and the standard deviation is 88 km/s. The accuracy of forecasting the speed of quasistationary solar wind streams is comparable to the results of foreign models.

ДИАМАГНИТНЫЕ ПЛАЗМОИДЫ КАК СОСТАВНАЯ ЧАСТЬ ДИАМАГНИТНЫХ СТРУКТУР МЕДЛЕННОГО СОЛНЕЧНОГО ВЕТРА И ИХ ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ НА МАГНИТОСФЕРУ ЗЕМЛИ

We have shown that diamagnetic structures (DSs), which form the basis of the slow quasi-stationary solar wind (SW), are observed in Earth’s orbit as a sequence of DSs of various scales. The analysis of this phenomenon indicates that diamagnetic plasmoids in SW, whose concept was introduced by Karlsson in 2015, are identical to small-scale DSs. We have found that the impact of a sequence of DSs in the slow SW on Earth’s magnetosphere causes an increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated DSs generate short-term magnetic disturbances whose duration is approximately equal to the DS duration. Hence, a sequence of DSs can cause sawtooth substorms. We emphasize that the interaction of DS in the slow SW under northward interplanetary magnetic field can be associated with penetration of DS high-density plasma into the magnetosphere.

DIAMAGNETIC PLASMOIDS AS PART OF DIAMAGNETIC STRUCTURES OF THE SLOW SOLAR WIND AND THEIR IMPACT ON EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE

We have shown that diamagnetic structures (DSs), which form the basis of the slow quasi-stationary solar wind (SW), are observed in Earth’s orbit as a sequence of DSs of various scales. The analysis of this phenomenon indicates that diamagnetic plasmoids in SW, whose concept was introduced by Karlsson in 2015, are identical to small-scale DSs. We have found that the impact of a sequence of DSs in the slow SW on Earth’s magnetosphere causes an increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated DSs generate short-term magnetic disturbances whose duration is approximately equal to the DS duration. Hence, a sequence of DSs can cause sawtooth substorms. We emphasize that the interaction of DS in the slow SW under northward interplanetary magnetic field can be associated with penetration of DS high-density plasma into the magnetosphere.

COMPOSITION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS

ABSTRACT We analyze the physical origin of plasmas that are ejected from the solar corona. To address this issue, we perform a comprehensive analysis of the elemental composition of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) using recently released elemental composition data for Fe, Mg, Si, S, C, N, Ne, and He as compared to O and H. We find that ICMEs exhibit a systematic abundance increase of elements with first ionization potential (FIP) < 10 eV, as well as a significant increase of Ne as compared to quasi-stationary solar wind. ICME plasmas have a stronger FIP effect than slow wind, which indicates either that an FIP process is active during the ICME ejection or that a different type of solar plasma is injected into ICMEs. The observed FIP fractionation is largest during times when the Fe ionic charge states are elevated above Q Fe > 12.0. For ICMEs with elevated charge states, the FIP effect is enhanced by 70% over that of the slow wind. We argue that the compositionally hot parts of ICMEs are active region loops that do not normally have access to the heliosphere through the processes that give rise to solar wind. We also discuss the implications of this result for solar energetic particles accelerated during solar eruptions and for the origin of the slow wind itself.

ON THE ORIGIN OF MID-LATITUDE FAST WIND: CHALLENGING THE TWO-STATE SOLAR WIND PARADIGM

The bimodal paradigm of solar wind describes a slow solar wind situated near the heliospheric current sheet while a fast wind overexpands from the poles to fill in the remainder of the heliosphere. In this paper, we challenge this paradigm and focus here on mid-latitude wind using three fast-latitude passes completed by the Ulysses spacecraft. Based on its composition and dynamic properties, we discuss how this wind differs from both the fast, polar coronal hole wind and the low latitude, streamer-associated slow solar wind. Using a detailed analysis of ionic and elemental abundances, as well as solar wind dynamic properties, we conclude that there is a third quasi-stationary solar wind state, called the boundary wind. This boundary wind is characterized by a charge-state distribution that is similar to slow wind, but with an elemental composition that is coronal hole like. Based on these data, we present arguments for the location of the origin of this wind. We conclude that the boundary wind is a subset of the fast wind emanating from regions close to the boundaries of coronal holes and is accelerated by a similar process.

Solar wind elemental abundances related to the Sun's open magnetic flux

Context. We present an investigation of the effects of solar magnetic field on the elemental abundance ratios of heavy ions in the solar wind.Aims. We compare the elemental abundance ratios Fe/O, Si/O, Mg/O, Ne/O, and C/O over the 23rd solar cycle, attention being given to the varying fraction of open magnetic flux on the visible side of the solar disc.Methods. We use ACE solar wind data, the current sheet source surface (CSSS) model of the corona, and SoHO/MDI data to relate solar wind compositional properties with the fraction of open magnetic flux on the Sun. We include both a quasi-stationary and intermittent solar wind.Results. For the six investigated solar wind speed ranges, the elemental composition shows a similar FIP-bias of the quasi-stationary solar wind composition with respect to the photosphere but with three plateaus separating low-, mid-, and high-FIP elements. The average enrichment factor for the low-FIP element group (Mg, Fe, Si) with respect to the photospheric values is between 1.67 and 2.47 when the fraction of open magnetic flux on the visible side of the solar disc is above 14%, and it ranges from 2.78 to 4.15 when this fraction is less than 7%. They are close to the enrichment of low-FIP elements with respect to the photospheric values in quasi-stationary fast- and slow- solar wind, which implies similar fractionation mechanisms for the stationary solar wind and the intermittent solar wind. In the low alpha ( is the fraction of open magnetic flux on the visible side of the solar disc), the enrichment of heavy elements for the fast solar wind is well correlated with the high fraction of CMEs. In addition, both the charge state ratios and the elemental abundance ratios exhibit a lower dependence on alpha in a slow solar wind than in a fast solar wind. The dependence of the charge state ratios on alpha is correlated with FIP, which implies that solar magnetic effects play a non-negligible role in the elemental fractionation of the solar wind. We suggest that lower hybrid waves play an important role in the possible linkage between solar magnetic field and elemental fractionation.

Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence fS of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the Kp index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and Kp(t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.

Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko[4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.

The existence of long-lived rays of the coronal streamer belt - Radial density and velocity distributions of the solar wind flowing in them

A technique is proposed for separating the rays of the streamer belt with quasi-stationary and non-stationary solar wind (SW) flows. It is shown that the lifetime of rays with a quasi-stationary SW can exceed 20 days. A new method has been developed for measuring the relative density distribution of a quasi-stationary slow SW flowing along the streamer belt's ray of increased brightness, based on the LASCO/SOHO data. It is shown that the density n for such SW flows varies with the radius R according to the relationship n∼R−α, where α=α1≈3.3–3.9 within 4 R0 ≤R ≤ 6 R0 (here R0 is the solar radius), and decreases gradually further away. It is also shown that the V(R)-profiles in some rays of the streamer belt differ little from each other, although the value of the mass flow density, jE, at the Earth's orbit in them can vary more than by a factor of 4. This distinguishes in a crucial respect a slow SW in the streamer belt's rays from a fast SW originating in coronal holes, for which jE≈constant and the dependences V(R) in different fast flows can differ greatly.

QUASI-STATIONARY SOLAR WIND IN RAY STRUCTURES OF THE STREAMER BELT

It is shown on the basis of analyzing the LASCO/SOHO data that the main quasi-stationary solar wind (SW), with a typical lifetime of up to 10 days, flows in the rays of the streamer belt. Depending on R, its velocity increases gradually from V≈3 km s−1 at R≈1.3 R⊙ to V≈170 km s−1 at R≈15 R⊙. We have detected and investigated the movement of the leading edge of the main solar wind at the stage when it occupied the ray, i.e., at the formative stage of a quasi-stationary plasma flow in the ray. It is shown that the width of the leading edge of the main SW increases almost linearly with its distance from the Sun. It is further shown that the initial velocity of the inhomogeneities (`blobs') that travel in the streamer belt rays increases with the distance from the Sun at which they originate, and is approximately equal to the velocity of the main solar wind which carries them away. The characteristic width of the leading edge of the `blob' δ≈R⊙, and remains almost unchanging as it moves away from the Sun. Estimates indicate that the main SW in the brightest rays of the streamer belt to within distances at least of order R≈3 R⊙ represents a flow of collisional magnetized plasma along a radial magnetic field.

An investigation of the fine ray structure of the coronal streamer belt using LASCO data

It is shown that within R>3–4 R⊙from the solar center the coronal streamer belt consists in a sequence of radial brightness rays. A minimum angular size of the individual ray d≈2.0°–2.5°, which is about the same in the directions normal to and along the streamer-belt, is independent of the distance from the Sun at R=4–6 R⊙. The lifetime of the rays can exceed 10 days. From time to time, inhomogeneities of material inside the rays begin to move in the antisunward direction. Plots of increase in their velocity with the distance from the Sun are similar to those obtained by Sheeley et al. (1997) for inhomogeneities that are carried by a quasi-stationary solar wind in streamers. It is concluded that the phenomena discussed in this paper and by Sheeley et al. (1997) share a common origin. It is suggested that a different origin of solar wind flows in streamers and in coronal holes may be associated with a different character of flows in microtubes of the magnetic field comprising a total solar wind flow. These tubes are observed as brightness rays in streamer belts and plumes in coronal holes.

Origin of the solar wind from composition data

The ESA/NASA spacecraft Ulysses is making, for the first time, direct measurements in the solar wind originating from virtually all places where the corona expands. Since the initial two polar passes of Ulysses occur during relatively quiet solar conditions, we discuss here the three main regimes of quasi-stationary solar wind flow: the high speed streams (HSSTs) coming out of the polar coronal holes, the slow solar wind surrounding the HSSTs, and the streamers which occur at B-field reversals. Comparisons between H-α maps and data taken by Ulysses demonstrate that as a result of super-radial expansion, the HSSTs occupy a much larger solid angle than that derived from radial projections of coronal holes. Data obtained with SWICS-Ulysses confirm that the strength of the FIP effect is much reduced in the HSSTs. The systematics in the variations of elemental abundances becomes particularly clear, if these are plotted against the time of ionisation (at the solar surface) rather than against the first ionisation potential (FIP). We have used a superposed-epoch method to investigate the changes in solar wind speed and composition measured during the 9-month period in 1992/93 when Ulysses regularly passed into and out of the southern HSST. We find that the patterns in the variations of the Mg/O and O7+/O6+ ratios are virtually identical and that their transition from high to low values is very steep. Since the Mg/O ratio is controlled by the FIP effect and the O7+/O6+ ratio reflects the coronal temperature, this finding points to a connection between chromospheric and coronal conditions.

On the existence of the heliospheric current sheet without a neutral line (HCS without NL)

By investigating quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) streams, it has been shown that there exists, along with the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) with a neutral line (NL), the HCS without NL. Chains of streamers which in the solar corona separate regions having the same directions of the radial magnetic field B r, correspond to it near the Sun. In the presence of a sporadic stream, SW structures involving a change of sign of B r, can be interpreted as a bend of the HCS with NL.

Relationships of quasi-stationary solar wind flows with their sources on the Sun

In this paper, by considering an example of four Carrington rotations (1671,1672,1681, and 1682), it is shown that there generally exists an exhaustive correspondence between quasi-stationary flows of ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ solar wind (SW), on the one hand, and their sources on the Sun: coronal holes (CHs) and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), on the other. It is also shown that by knowing characteristics such as the coordinate of the center of gravity of CHs on the Sun, their areas S and the positions of the neutral line (NL) and of the HCS without the NL on the Sun, it becomes possible to calculate the time of appearance and the amplitude of three points on the SW velocity profile at the Earth's orbit, namely time, t F ,and velocity amplitude, V F ,corresponding to the mean point of the forward front of the SW flow velocity profile, the value of V = V m in the central part of the flow, and angular width Δϕ + of the flow at level V = V F .Calculated values agree with those observed.