Use of the DBM Model to the Predict of Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections to the Earth

Abstract

This paper analyzes the results of modeling coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation in 2010–2011 obtained using input data from different sources: CME catalogs SEEDS and CACTus, and predictions of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind fluxes, as an environment, through which CMEs propagate. As the model of quasi-stationary solar wind fluxes, the model for predicting the velocity of the solar wind of the Space Weather Forecast Center of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Moscow State University, operating online, is used. The CME prediction is carried out using the Simple Drag-Based Model. A comparison was performed between the ICME arrival time and their velocities obtained when modeling with data from the open ICME catalogs: the Richardson and Cane ICME catalog and the GMU CME List. Based on the comparison, it was concluded that a more accurate prediction for the growth phase of the 24th solar activity cycle was obtained using data on CME parameters from the CACTus database. The obtained errors in predicting the ICME parameters are comparable with the errors of other existing models.