Squall Line Research Articles

Evaluation of the Representation of Raindrop Self‐Collection and Breakup in Two‐Moment Bulk Models Using a Multifrequency Radar Retrieval

AbstractUsing multifrequency radar observations providing raindrop size distribution evolution with high spatial and temporal resolution, this study aims to assess the ability of different parameterizations of raindrop self‐collection and breakup processes applied in mesoscale models, to reproduce the statistics derived from observations. The stratiform zones of two types of precipitating systems are studied, a frontal situation that occurred over Finland in June 2014 and a squall line system observed over Oklahoma in June 2011. An analysis method for determining raindrop trajectories was used to obtain the temporal variation of the total raindrop concentration from the observations. The resulting raindrop concentration rate as a function of the mean volume diameter reveals significant differences with the parameterizations currently used in two‐moment bulk microphysics schemes. These results show that even if they produce variations in raindrop concentration of the same order of magnitude as the observations, the current parameterizations diverge from the median of the observations, resulting in an overestimation of either the self‐collection or the breakup process. From the median of radar observations, new parameterizations of the self‐collection and breakup processes and of rain self‐collection efficiency are developed and can be implemented in two‐moment bulk microphysics schemes.

The Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms (PERiLS) Project

Abstract Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) are responsible for approximately a quarter of all tornado events in the United States, but no field campaigns have focused specifically on collecting data to understand QLCS tornadogenesis. The Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms (PERiLS) project was the first observational study of tornadoes associated with QLCSs ever undertaken. Participants were drawn from more than 10 universities, laboratories, and institutes, with over 100 students participating in field activities. The PERiLS field phases spanned 2 years, late winters and early springs of 2022 and 2023, to increase the probability of intercepting significant tornadic QLCS events in a range of large-scale and local environments. The field phases of PERiLS collected data in nine tornadic and nontornadic QLCSs with unprecedented detail and diversity of measurements. The design and execution of the PERiLS field phase and preliminary data and ongoing analyses are shown.

The Evolution of the 2021 Seacor Power Tragedy in Coastal Louisiana

Abstract On 13 April 2021, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) swept across the southeastern Louisiana coast, capsizing the 39-m Seacor Power roughly 7 km from shore and leaving 13 mariners drowned or missing. In addition to the severe straight-line winds that sank the vessel, sustained surface winds > 20 m s−1 behind the leading convection persisted well after the main convective band, inhibiting search and rescue efforts. Though complete historical fatality statistics are unavailable, the 13 deaths associated with this event likely represent one of the deadliest severe convective weather events in modern U.S. maritime history. This analysis integrates in situ, remotely sensed, and reanalysis datasets to reconstruct the 2021 Seacor Power accident as well as ascertain its depiction in day-of operational convection-allowing model (CAM) guidance. Results suggest that the MCS formed along an unanalyzed coastal boundary and developed a strong mesohigh to the east of the wreck as it moved offshore. The resulting zonally oriented pressure gradient directed stiff easterly winds over the wreck for several hours, even as the squall line had propagated well away from the coast. This multihour period of severe weather along the Louisiana coast was relatively well resolved by morning-of CAM guidance, providing optimism that future such events may be anticipated with the lead times required by vulnerable seacraft to reach safe harbor. Future severe convective weather watches containing marine zones might include a “marine” section detailing the potential sea conditions, analogous to the “aviation” section in current severe weather watches.

Influence of Low-Level Shear Orientation and Magnitude on the Evolution and Rotation of Idealized Squall Lines. Part I: Storm Morphology and Bulk Updraft/Mesovortex Attributes

Abstract Observational and modeling efforts have explored the formation and maintenance of mesovortices, which contribute to severe hazards in quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). There exists an important interplay between environmental shear and cold-pool-induced circulations which, when balanced, allow for upright QLCS updrafts with maximized lift along storm outflow boundaries. Numerical simulations have primarily tested the sensitivity of squall lines to zonally varying low-level (LL) shear profiles (i.e., purely line-normal, assuming a north–south-oriented system), but observed near-storm environments of mesovortex-producing QLCSs exhibit substantial LL hodograph curvature (i.e., line-parallel shear). Therefore, previous QLCS simulations may fail to capture the full impacts of LL shear variability on mesovortex characteristics. To this end, this study employs an ensemble of idealized QLCS simulations with systematic variations in the orientation and magnitude of the ambient LL shear vector, all while holding 0–3-km line-normal shear constant. This allows for a nuanced examination of how line-parallel shear modulates system structure, as well as mesovortex strength, size, and longevity. Results indicate that hodographs with LL curvature support squall lines with prominent bowing segments and wider, more intense rotating updrafts. Shear orientation also impacts mesovortex characteristics, with curved hodographs favoring cyclonic vortices that are stronger, wider, deeper, and longer-lived than those produced with straight-line wind profiles. These results provide a more complete physical understanding of how LL shear variability influences the generation of rotation in squall lines. Significance Statement Research related to linear storms has largely focused on vertical changes in winds (i.e., shear) oriented perpendicular to squall lines given its ability to balance storm cold pools and keep updrafts upright, thus promoting long-lived storms that presumably can go on to produce rotation. However, squall lines that produce a great deal of rotation often have a component of low-level shear oriented parallel to storms. This study gauges the sensitivity of simulated squall lines to changes in the direction and strength of shear close to the surface. We find that shear oriented parallel to linear storms creates stronger and larger updrafts that in turn support the development of intense and persistent rotation with characteristics supportive of tornadoes. These insights have impacts on both our physical understanding and prediction of the rotation and associated hazards of linear storms.

Quasi-Linear Convective Systems and Derechos across Europe: Climatology, Accompanying Hazards, and Societal Impacts

Abstract In this work, we use 8 years (2014–21) of Operational Programme for the Exchange of Weather Radar Information (OPERA) radar data, ESWD severe weather reports, and arrival time difference (ATD) lightning detection network (ATDnet) data to create a climatology of quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) across Europe. In the first step, 15-min radar scans were used to identify 1475 QLCS polygons. Severe weather reports, lightning data, and morphological properties were used to classify QLCSs according to their intensity into 1151 marginal (78.0%), 272 moderate (18.5%), and 52 derecho (3.5%) events. The manual evaluation led to the recognition of QLCS morphological and precipitation archetypes, areal extent, duration, speed, forward motion, width, length, accompanying hazards, injuries, and fatalities. Results indicate that QLCSs are the most frequent during summer in central Europe, while in southern Europe, their occurrence is extended to late autumn. A bow echo feature occurred in around 29% of QLCS cases, while a mesoscale convective vortex occurred in almost 9%. Among precipitation modes, trailing and embedded stratiform types accounted for around 50% of QLCSs. The most frequent hazard accompanying QLCSs was lightning (taking up on average 94.4% of the area impacted by QLCS), followed by severe wind gusts (7.9%), excessive precipitation (6.1%), large hail (2.9%), and tornadoes (0.5%). Derechos had the largest coverage of severe wind reports (49.8%), while back-building QLCSs were the most prone to excessive precipitation events (13.5%). QLCSs caused 104 fatalities and 886 injuries. Severe wind gusts were responsible for 87.6% of fatalities and 73.6% of injuries. Nearly half of all fatalities and injuries were associated with only the 10 most impactful QLCS events, mostly warm-season derechos.

Dynamics of Two Episodes of High Winds Produced by an Unusually Long-Lived Quasi-Linear Convective System in South China

Abstract Using radar observation and convection-permitting simulation, this work studies the storm-scale dynamics governing the generation of two episodes of high winds by an unusually long-lived quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) in South China on 21 April 2017. The first episode of high winds occurred at the apex of a bowing segment in the southern QLCS due to the downward transport of high momentum by a descending rear-inflow jet (RIJ). The RIJ was initially elevated which was generated as low-frequency gravity wave response to the thermal forcing in the QLCS leading convective line. It descended to the surface owing to the enhancement of low-level diabatic cooling which strengthened the downdrafts at the RIJ leading edge. The vertical momentum budget revealed that the downdrafts were initiated by the negative buoyancy of the cold pool and strengthened by the weakened buoyancy-induced upward pressure gradient force in the boundary layer and enhanced hydrometeor loading above. The second episode of high winds occurred in the decaying stage of the QLCS which, however, redeveloped as its northern part interacted with an intensifying large-scale shear line to the east. A zonal convective line developed along the shear line and finally merged with the QLCS. The merger greatly enhanced the low-level convergence, leading to the downward development of the line-end vortex via vertical stretching of vertical vorticity. The area of high winds was notably increased by the superposition of the ambient translational wind with the vortex rotational flow. The findings provide new insights into the generation of high winds by the QLCS-MCS merger, highlighting the importance of low-level vortices in addition to the RIJ. Significance Statement Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) are prolific producers of high winds at the surface. While conceptual models have been established for high winds produced by single QLCSs, this is not the case for the high winds generated by QLCSs merging with other convective systems. This work revealed different dynamics for two episodes of high winds produced by a long-lived QLCS merging with an MCS in South China. The first episode resulted from the descending rear-inflow jet (RIJ) as in the case of single QLCSs. The second and stronger one was due to the superposition of ambient flow with a line-end vortex that developed downward given the enhanced low-level convergence by the merger. This finding sheds light on the importance of mergers in high-wind generation which has even greater damaging potential than the RIJ.

Sensitivity of Coastal Squall-Line Evolution to Numerical Sea-Breeze Initialization Method

Abstract This study employs 3D idealized numerical experiments to investigate the physical processes associated with coastal convection initiation (CI) as an offshore-moving squall line traverses a mountainous coastal region. A squall line can propagate discretely as convection initiates over the lee slope downstream of the primary storm as the cold pool collides with a sea breeze. Intensity of the initiating convection, thus the downstream squall line, is sensitive to the sea-breeze numerical initialization method, since it influences sea-breeze and cold pool characteristics, instability and vertical wind shear in the sea-breeze environment, and ultimately the vertical acceleration of air parcels during CI. Here, sea breezes are generated through four commonly used numerical methods: a cold-block marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), a prescribed surface sensible heat flux function, a prescribed surface sensible plus latent heat flux functions, and radiation plus surface-layer parameterization schemes. For MABL-initialized sea breezes, shallow weak sea-breeze flow in a relatively low instability environment results in weak CI. For the remainder, deeper stronger sea-breeze flow in an environment of enhanced instability supports more robust CI. In a subset of experiments, however, the vertical trajectory of air parcels is suppressed leading to weaker convection. Downward acceleration forms due to the horizontal rotation of the sea-breeze flow. Accurate simulations of coastal convective storms rely on an accurate representation of sea breezes. For idealized experiments such as the present simulations, a combination of initialization methods likely produces a more realistic representation of sea breeze and the associated physical processes.

Radar Signatures Associated with Quasi-Linear Convective System Mesovortices

Abstract Recent operationally driven research has generated a framework, known as the three ingredients method and mesovortex warning system, that can help forecasters anticipate mesovortex development and issue warnings within quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). However, dual-polarization radar data has not yet been incorporated into this framework. Therefore, several dual- and single-polarization radar signatures associated with QLCS mesovortices were analyzed to determine if they could provide additional information about mesovortex development and intensity. An analysis of 167 mesovortices showed that 1) KDP drops precede ∼95% of mesovortices and provide an initial indication of where a mesovortex may develop; 2) midlevel KDP cores are a potentially useful precursor signature because they precede a majority of mesovortices and have higher magnitudes for mesovortices that produce wind damage or tornadoes; 3) low-level KDP cores and areas of enhanced spectrum width have higher magnitudes for mesovortices that produce wind damage or tornadoes but tend to develop at about the same time as the mesovortex, which makes them more useful as diagnostic than as predictive signatures; and 4) as range from the radar increases, the radar signatures become less useful in anticipating mesovortex intensity but can still be used to anticipate mesovortex development or build confidence in mesovortex existence. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to look at weather radar features that might help forecasters predict the development and intensity of tornadoes and strong winds within linear thunderstorm systems. Our results show that the intensity and trends of some radar features are helpful in showing when these hazards might develop and how strong they might be, while other radar features are less helpful. This information can help forecasters focus on the most useful radar features and ultimately provide the best possible warnings.

Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity Estimation

Abstract Given the obvious difficulties in directly sampling tornadic wind fields, ongoing work continues to improve estimates of near-ground wind speeds in tornadoes. This study builds upon a recently proposed empirical relationship between radar-observed velocities in the lowest 150 m above ground level (AGL) and the theoretical peak 15-m AGL wind speed. We create and analyze a dataset of 194 velocity observations within tornadoes in the lowest 150 m AGL. These observations are drawn from 105 individual tornadoes that occurred across a diverse range of EF-scale ratings (EF0–4), convective modes (discrete supercell and quasi-linear convective system), geographical regions, and housing unit densities (HUDs). Comparing the radar-estimated and damage-estimated tornado wind speeds, and corresponding EF- and F-scale ratings, is the primary focus of the ensuing analysis. Consistent with recent work, damage-estimated tornado wind speeds tend to be lower than radar-estimated near-surface wind speeds, especially for stronger tornadoes. Damage- and radar-estimated wind speed differences are not strongly related to the availability of damage indicators (as measured by HUD). While some relationship exists—particularly underestimates of peak wind speeds for strong–violent tornadoes in low HUD areas—the tendency of radar-based strong/violent tornado intensity estimates to be meaningfully higher than EF-scale-based damage estimates exists across the HUD spectrum. The legacy F-scale wind speed ranges may ultimately provide a better estimate of peak tornado wind speeds at 10–15 m AGL for strong–violent tornadoes and a better damage-based intensity rating for all tornadoes. These results are contextualized with regard to ongoing community efforts to improve tornado intensity estimation. Significance Statement Due to the numerous difficulties in collecting direct observations of tornado wind speeds, we compare methods that are used to estimate near-ground wind speeds using both radar measurements of wind speeds aloft and damage. Our results show that 1) the damage-estimated intensities of stronger tornadoes are more likely to be underestimates of true wind speeds than weaker tornadoes based on radar observations, 2) this bias is present for tornadoes that occur in more built-up areas as well as more sparsely populated ones, and 3) the legacy Fujita scale may provide better wind speed estimates in stronger tornadoes. These findings contribute to community-wide efforts to improve damage-based estimates of peak tornado wind speeds.

An ML‐Based P3‐Like Multimodal Two‐Moment Ice Microphysics in the ICON Model

AbstractMachine learning (ML) is used to build a bulk microphysical parameterization including ice processes. Simulations of the Lagrangian super‐particle model McSnow are used as training data. The ML performs a coarse‐graining of the particle‐resolved microphysics to multi‐category two‐moment bulk equations. Besides mass and number, prognostic particle properties (P3) like melt water, rime mass, and rime volume are predicted by the ML‐based bulk model. The ML‐based scheme is tested with simulations of increasing complexity. As a box model, the ML‐based bulk scheme can reproduce the simulations of McSnow quite accurately. In 3d idealized squall line simulations, the ML‐based P3‐like scheme provides a more realistic extended stratiform region when compared to the standard two‐moment bulk scheme in ICON. In a realistic case study, the ML‐based scheme runs stably, but can not significantly improve the results. This shows that ML can be used to coarse‐grain super‐particle simulations to a bulk scheme of arbitrary complexity.

A 4-years of radar-based observation of bow echo over Bandung basin Indonesia

BackgroundThis study presents a 4-year (January 2019–April 2023) X-band radar network-based bow echo observation over Great Bandung Indonesia. This study provides insight into the temporal and spatial variability of bow echo distribution and presents the atmospheric condition associated with the bow echo events. Temporal analysis is categorical into monthly, seasonally, and diurnal. The analysis was performed using X-band radar network and reanalysis data (ERA5).ResultAt least 26 bow echoes were identified across the Bandung basin from X-band radar network during the study period. From this total number of bow echoes, the observation of initiation modes is primarily generated from a weakly organized cell, with few coming from the squall line. The bow echo mostly evolved from noon until afternoon. The rainy season (December–January–February) and transition season (March–April–May) is the most frequent period of bow echo occurrence, with March being the most active month. Nevertheless, this study also found bow echo occurrence in the dry season (June–July–August). For the spatial analysis, the studied area is divided into two regions representing the eastern and western part of Bandung basin. The eastern region recorded the most intense occurrences with 14 events. The movement of bow echo in this region covered a shorter distance (average distance only 4.56 km), with all initiation modes occurring inside the region. The atmospheric condition within this region has less moisture flux, with higher CAPE and slightly higher surface temperature. Meanwhile, in the western region have different characteristics with higher moisture flux, a slight effect of CAPE and CINH, with longer distance and zonal movement direction of bow echo displacement.ConclusionThese conditions indicate that local convection is the dominant mode of bow echo initiation mode in the eastern region of Bandung basin. Meanwhile, the monsoon effect influences the bow echo initiation mode in the western region. Given that the observed 4-year bow echo has different characteristics from previous studies of bow echo in mid latitudes, developing different criteria for bow echo detection in the tropics is crucial.

A clustering-based method for identifying and tracking squall lines

A clustering-based method for identifying and tracking squall lines

Studies on in-flight aircraft rerouting

With the publication of this article, the authors continue the research on the development and testing of a methodology for in-flight aircraft rerouting which have begun in previously published articles in the Civil Aviation High Technologies of the Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation. This article presents the results of the study in terms of developing the potentials of the methodology from reconfiguring a route of a hypothetical aircraft and obstacles in the horizontal plane, which were previously demonstrated, prior to rerouting in both the horizontal and vertical planes for two different types of obstacles: 1) ground natural or artificial (mountain, power line support, etc.); 2) air (squall line, prohibited flight area, etc.) and their combinations using an example of a Mi-8 helicopter flight on route using a real digital map of the terrain. As mentioned above, a large amount of aviation accidents is associated with the loss of control in-flight, as well as the collision with terrain in a controlled flight (categories LOC-I, CFIT, LALT). As a result of the investigation of the aviation accidents, it was found that these accidents are often caused by the requirement to reroute quickly due to obstacles, for example, a squall line. When determining alternatives to avoid an obstacle, as well as while implementing the selected route for avoiding action, the crew makes errors due to the increased psychophysiological load and lack of time. The methodology and the algorithms, proposed by the authors, make it possible to assess the safety of an original route, estimate options for alternatives to avoid around obstacles detected in-flight, check them for feasibility, taking into account aircraft performance, flight envelope, and also select the optimal route from the view of some criterion, for example, based on minimizing the route length increase, reducing additional fuel consumption, the time required to implement a new route of flight, etc.

Investigating Temporal Characteristics of Polarimetric and Electrical Signatures in Three Severe Storms: Insights from the VORTEX-Southeast Field Campaign

Abstract The dual-polarization radar characteristics of severe storms are commonly used as indicators to estimate the size and intensity of deep convective updrafts. In this study, we track rapid fluctuations in updraft intensity and size by objectively identifying polarimetric fingerprints such as ZDR and KDP columns, which serve as proxies for mixed-phase updraft strength. We quantify the volume of ZDR and KDP columns to evaluate their utility in diagnosing temporal variability in lightning flash characteristics. Specifically, we analyze three severe storms that developed in environments with low-to-moderate instability and strong 0–6-km wind shear in northern Alabama during the 2016–17 VORTEX-Southeast field campaign. In these three cases (a tornadic supercell embedded in stratiform precipitation, a nontornadic supercell, and a supercell embedded within a quasi-linear convective system), we find that the volume of the KDP columns exhibits a stronger correlation with the total flash rate. The higher covariability of the KDP column volume with the total flash rate suggests that the overall electrification and precipitation microphysics were dominated by cold cloud processes. The lower covariability with the ZDR column volume indicates the presence of nonsteady updrafts or a less prominent role of warm rain processes in graupel growth and subsequent electrification. Furthermore, we observe that the majority of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strikes a carried negative charge to the ground. In contrast to findings from a tornadic supercell over the Great Plains, lightning flash initiations in the Alabama storms primarily occurred outside the footprint of the ZDR and KDP column objects. Significance Statement This study quantifies the correlation between mixed-phase updraft intensity and total lightning flash rate in three severe storms in northern Alabama. In the absence of direct updraft velocity measurements, we use polarimetric signatures, such as ZDR and KDP columns, as proxies for updraft strength. Our analysis of polarimetric radar and lightning mapping array data reveals that the lightning flash rate is more highly correlated with the KDP column volume than with the ZDR column volume in all three storms examined. This contrasts with previous findings in storms over the central Great Plains, where the ZDR column volume showed higher covariability with flash rate. Interestingly, lightning initiation in the Alabama storms mainly occurred outside the ZDR and KDP column areas, contrary to previous findings.

Difference between Upshear- and Downshear-Propagating Waves Associated with the Development of Squall Lines

Abstract During the development of squall lines, low-frequency gravity waves exhibit contrasting behaviors behind and ahead of the system, corresponding to its low-level upshear and downshear sides, respectively. This study employed idealized numerical simulations to investigate how low-level shear and tilted convective heating influence waves during two distinct stages of squall-line evolution. In the initial stage, low-level shear speeds up upshear waves, while it has contrasting effects on the amplitudes of different wave modes, distinguishing it from the Doppler effect. Downshear deep tropospheric downdraft (n = 1 wave) exhibits larger amplitudes, resulting in strengthened low-level inflow and upper-level outflow. However, n = 2 wave with low-level ascent and high-level descent has higher amplitude upshear and exhibits a higher altitude of peak w values downshear, leading to the development of a more extensive upshear low-level cloud deck and a higher altitude of downshear cloud deck. In the mature stage, as the convective updraft greatly tilts rearward (upshear), stronger n = 1 waves occur behind the system, while downshear-propagating n = 2 waves exhibit larger amplitudes. These varying wave behaviors subsequently contribute to the storm-relative circulation pattern. Ahead of the squall line, stronger n = 2 waves and weaker n = 1 waves produce intense outflow concentrated at higher altitudes, along with moderate midlevel inflow and weak low-level inflow. Conversely, behind the system, the remarkable high pressure in the upper troposphere and wake low are attributed to more intense n = 1 waves. Additionally, the cloud anvil features greater width and depth rearward and is situated at higher altitudes ahead of the system due to the joint effects of n = 1 and n = 2 waves. Significance Statement Squall lines are a significant source of high-impact weather events, and their development has been partially explained through linear wave dynamics. While the recurrent generation of waves during squall-line evolution has been found, the differentiation of wave behavior behind and ahead of the system, as well as its implications for storm circulation, has remained unclear. This study employs idealized simulations to reveal that during different stages of convection, low-level shear and the tilting of convective heating exert contrasting effects on wave behaviors. Moreover, various wave modes exhibit distinct responses to specific factors, and their combined effect elucidates the structural discrepancies observed both rearward and forward of the convective updraft. These findings could allow a step toward a better understanding of the intricate interaction between waves and convections.

Evolution Mechanism of a Severe Squall Line Triggered by the Coupling of a Sea Breeze Front and a Gust Front

Evolution Mechanism of a Severe Squall Line Triggered by the Coupling of a Sea Breeze Front and a Gust Front

How frequent and which variables of automatic weather station data should be assimilated into WRF-3DVar model? A case study of a squall line event in Beijing

Accurate precipitation forecasting is one of the most challenging problems in mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The utilization of 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVar) Data Assimilation technique based on automatic weather station (AWS) data can significantly enhance the accuracy of precipitation simulations and forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, the impacts of different assimilation frequencies and meteorological variables on the accuracy of precipitation forecasts remain unclear. This study comprehensively evaluated the impact of different assimilation frequencies and meteorological variables on precipitation forecasts, as illustrated by a case study of a squall line event on August 2, 2017, in Beijing. Eight experiments were conducted by assimilating different combinations of meteorological variables (air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction) at various time intervals (1 h, 3 h, and 6 h). The results indicated that the WRF model roughly simulated the evolution of this event but overestimated the precipitation amount, accompanied by a large deviation in precipitation areas. Assimilating detailed AWS data significantly improves the model performance in precipitation forecasts. The experiment assimilating all variables at a 3 h interval yielded the most accurate forecasts, with the maximum threat score (TS) increasing from 0.02 to 0.56. Higher assimilation frequencies do not guarantee a better performance. In practice, a 3 h assimilation frequency emerges as an optimal choice for AWS data assimilation. The assimilation of various variables enhanced precipitation forecasts to varying degrees, with the optimum results achieved when all variables were assimilated. Wind speed and direction were the most significant factors in dynamically enhancing the simulation of precipitation areas. Relative humidity and temperature influenced the precipitation intensity by affecting the evolution of convective precipitation thermodynamically. The findings of this study can contribute to the development of AWS data assimilation strategies for the WRF-3DVar model, thereby enhancing the precipitation forecast accuracy.

Modeling the Impact of Secondary Ice Production on the Charge Structure of a Mesoscale Convective System

AbstractThe charge structure in thunderstorms may be strongly affected by different secondary ice production (SIP) processes, but has not been well understood. In this study, the impacts of three SIP mechanisms on microphysics and electrification in a squall line are investigated using model simulation, including the rime‐splintering, ice‐ice collisional breakup, and shattering of freezing drops. The parameterization of the three SIP mechanisms, a noninductive and an inductive charging parameterization are implemented in the spectral bin microphysics. The results show that with SIP processes included, the modeled radar reflectivity is more consistent with observation. It is found that both the mass and concentrations of graupel/hail are enhanced by SIP processes, while the diameter decreases. The mixing ratio of ice/snow decreases due to the rime‐splintering, and increases in mixing ratio are due to the shattering of freezing drops. Particle charging is significantly affected by SIP, leading to a dipole structure of the total charge density, which includes a lower negative and an upper positive charge region. With both the noninductive and inductive charging considered, the charge carried by graupel/hail changes from negative to a bipolar structure, and the charge sign carried by ice/snow is inverted due to the SIP. The modeled lightning activity is enhanced by implementing all three SIP processes, while if only considering the rime‐splintering process, the flash rate would be suppressed. The insights obtained from this study highlight the importance of considering different mechanisms of SIP in modeling the charge structure and lightning activity in thunderstorms.

Kinematic and Dynamic Structure of the 18 May 2020 Squall Line over South Korea

The diagonal squall line that passed through the Korean Peninsula on the 18 May 2020 was examined using wind data retrieved from multiple Doppler radar synthesis focusing on its kinematic and dynamic aspects. The low-level jet, along with warm and moist air in the lower level, served as the primary source of moisture supply during the initiation and formation process. The presence of a cold pool accompanying the squall line played a role in retaining moisture at the surface. As the squall line approached the Korean Peninsula, the convective bands in the northern segment (NS) and southern segment (SS) of the squall line exhibited distinct evolutionary patterns. The vertical wind shear in the NS area was more pronounced compared to that in the SS. The ascending inflow associated with the tilted updraft in the NS reached an altitude of 7 km, whereas it was only up to 4 km in the SS. The difference was caused by the strong descending rear flow, which obstructed the ascending inflow and let to significant updraft in the SS.

Atmospheric conditions conducive to thunderstorms with downbursts in Canada and a downburst precursor parameter

Thunderstorm winds are the costliest wind hazard in Canada, but they have not been well studied. This paper investigates atmospheric conditions prone to downbursts in Canada using a combination of reported downbursts from damage survey reports, ERA5 reanalysis data, lightning flash observations, radar imagery, and upper air measurements for the period of 2019–2023. We propose a novel Downburst Precursor Parameter (DPP) by integrating two low-correlated thermodynamic and kinematic parameters. DPP outperforms other existing instability indices in downburst diagnosis in Canada. Our spatial analysis reveals the absence of damaging downbursts west of the Rockies, while approximately half of all recorded damaging downbursts occurred in southeastern Canada. Squall lines and supercells are the most common types of downburst-generating storms in Canada. Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of storms are squall lines when a downburst is accompanied by lightning flashes, which occurred in ∼71% of all cases. The remaining ∼29% of downbursts without lightning are mostly dry downbursts, typically displaying a disorganized pattern of convective storms on a radar screen. The equivalent potential temperature difference between the surface and mid-level in the troposphere (∆θe) exceeds 13 K prior to 61% of damaging downbursts. This result indicates that ∆θe might be a useful downburst indicator in Canada despite lower values compared to many regions in the United States.