Radar Signatures Associated with Quasi-Linear Convective System Mesovortices

Abstract

Abstract Recent operationally driven research has generated a framework, known as the three ingredients method and mesovortex warning system, that can help forecasters anticipate mesovortex development and issue warnings within quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs). However, dual-polarization radar data has not yet been incorporated into this framework. Therefore, several dual- and single-polarization radar signatures associated with QLCS mesovortices were analyzed to determine if they could provide additional information about mesovortex development and intensity. An analysis of 167 mesovortices showed that 1) KDP drops precede ∼95% of mesovortices and provide an initial indication of where a mesovortex may develop; 2) midlevel KDP cores are a potentially useful precursor signature because they precede a majority of mesovortices and have higher magnitudes for mesovortices that produce wind damage or tornadoes; 3) low-level KDP cores and areas of enhanced spectrum width have higher magnitudes for mesovortices that produce wind damage or tornadoes but tend to develop at about the same time as the mesovortex, which makes them more useful as diagnostic than as predictive signatures; and 4) as range from the radar increases, the radar signatures become less useful in anticipating mesovortex intensity but can still be used to anticipate mesovortex development or build confidence in mesovortex existence. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to look at weather radar features that might help forecasters predict the development and intensity of tornadoes and strong winds within linear thunderstorm systems. Our results show that the intensity and trends of some radar features are helpful in showing when these hazards might develop and how strong they might be, while other radar features are less helpful. This information can help forecasters focus on the most useful radar features and ultimately provide the best possible warnings.