Quarter Ending Research Articles

The debt counselling process – closing the loopholes in the National Credit Act 34 of 2005

According to statistics provided by the National Credit Regulator (NCR) 41.6% of the 17.57 million credit-active South Africans had impaired credit records in December 2008. This "impaired records" figure rose by 4% when compared to the quarter which ended in December 2007. Since December 2008 the number of consumers with impaired credit records has further increased. As at March 2009 credit bureaux had records for 17.61 million credit-active consumers. The data showed that the percentage of consumers with impaired records was 42.4% at the quarter ending March 2009. This was an increase of 0.8% when compared with the quarter ending December 2008 and an increase of 4% when compared with the quarter ending March 2008.

The Third Quarter Ends with a Blast: Tech, Small Caps, and Beta

The Third Quarter Ends with a Blast: Tech, Small Caps, and Beta

Strategies for Business Firms in Declining Markets

The economic crisis that has engulfed the world since 2007 has become serious by the first quarter of 2009.Many developed countries too are affected severely, namely the US, Germany, the UK and others. Fortunately, India as of now seems to be less affected, yet the winds of global recession are now felt. The Indian economy grew at an annual rate of 7.6% in the quarter ending in September, 2008. As per the projections of the government growth in the fiscal year, 2008-09 could be in the range of 7 to 8 %, which is, lower than 9% in the last year. The government has unveiled a multibillion dollar stimulus on 7th December, 2008 and 2nd January, 2009 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates aggressively. India Inc has felt the heat of the global meltdown in the third quarter ending in December, 2008 where the income has dropped by a massive 23% points compared to the previous year. Indian manufacturing activity has contracted for the second consecutive month in December, 2008 to its lowest in more than three and half years. India’s exports too have declined by 12.1 % in October, 2008 showing a negative trend for the first time in the last five years.

Effects of Posting Examinations and Answer Keys on Students’ Study Methods and Test Performance

A rich database was assembled to test the validity of contradictory claims about the effects of policy regarding posting of code-protected individual student scores and keyed examination questions. Four second-year lecture courses, each in a specialty area and each testing using multiple-choice examinations at the end of quarters, were compared. Two of the courses follow the practice of regularly posting scores and keyed questions; one holds review sessions during subsequent quarters to discuss some questions, while the other allows students to review their tests in a proctored room without access to paper and pencil. Students completed a questionnaire reporting the hours they spent studying for each test using a variety of methods, including old examinations, and estimates of the proportion of repeat questions on each test. Because most of the questionnaires were signed, it was possible to match self-reported study patterns with actual test scores and with overall GPA. Other information, such as test reliability, grading patterns, and National Board performance, was also gathered. A focus group was conducted. Results showed that students customized their study patterns and there was a minor clustering of practices such as late start for studying and use of old exams. Students with higher overall GPAs and those intending to specialize scored higher on tests. There were no associations between hours spent studying using any approach, including old exams, and test performance. There were no differences between course characteristics of the two courses that posted and the two courses that did not post exams, including National Board performance. Potential reasons why there was no association between hours or type of examination preparation and test scores are discussed. The focus group revealed that there are multiple goals among students regarding what they hope to achieve in the testing situation and that perfect performance was not a goal. Because there was no direct effect of posting exams on student test performance and because the practice of not posting exams created a climate of distance between students and faculty members, it is suggested that exams be posted as a regular policy.

Smart fund managers? Stupid money?

Abstract We develop a model of mutual fund manager investment decisions near the end of quarters. We show that when investors reward better performing funds with higher cash flows, near quarter‐ends a mutual fund manager has an incentive to distort new investment toward stocks in which his fund holds a large existing position. The short‐term price impact of these trades increase the fund's reported returns. Higher returns are rewarded by greater subsequent fund inflows which, in turn, allow for more investment distortion the next quarter. Because the price impact of trades is short term, each subsequent quarter begins with a larger return deficit. Eventually, the deficit cannot be overcome. Thus, our model leads to the empirically observed short‐run persistence and long‐run reversal in fund performance. In doing so, our model provides a consistent explanation of many other seemingly contradictory empirical features of mutual fund performance.

INTERMACS: Interval Analysis of Registry Data

The Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) is an NIH-sponsored registry of US FDA-approved mechanical circulatory support devices (MCSDs) used for destination therapy, bridge to transplantation (BTT), or recovery of the heart. INTERMACS data were analyzed through the most recent quarter ending March 31, 2008. INTERMACS variables include demographics, patient outcomes (survival and adverse events), hemodynamic data, and laboratory values. Data were analyzed with competing outcomes methods. Risk factors were identified for death and transplantation. Ninety-four sites have prospectively enrolled 483 patients in INTERMACS (BTT, 80%; destination therapy, 15%; bridge to recovery, 5%). Forty-two percent of patients had critical cardiogenic shock before implantation, 38% had progressive circulatory decline despite inotropic agents, and 8% were stable but inotropic agent-dependent. The remaining 12% had recurrent advanced heart failure, severe exercise intolerance, or advanced class III heart failure. At 6 months postimplantation, the competing outcomes for the 483 patients included ongoing support (42%), cardiac transplantation (33%), cardiac recovery with pump removal (3%), or death (22%). The most common causes of death were central nervous system events (11%), cardiovascular failure (8%), or respiratory failure (8%). Less common causes were infection (4%), device malfunction (4%), and liver failure (3%). Survival for BTT and destination therapy were similar (p = 0.53). Patient profile at the time of implantation (critical cardiogenic shock versus others) influenced survival (p = 0.007), as did device configuration (left ventricular assist device versus biventricular ventricular assist device; p < 0.0001). INTERMACS has increasing participation among domestic MCSD centers. The influence of preimplantation patient condition on survival underscores the importance of timely referral before critical cardiogenic shock occurs. As more devices achieve US FDA approval, INTERMACS will become useful for comparing MCSDs.

“I Want to be a Better Parent” Examining an Applied Approach to an Undergraduate Parent-Child Course

This study explores the effects of an undergraduate parent-child relations designed to integrate instruction of developmental and parenting theory into an applied, skill-based parenting framework. It was hypothesized that students in the applied teaching group would demonstrate significantly more improvement in effective parenting behaviors from pre-test to post-test than control group students who were enrolled in a traditional text-based course. The results suggested the 10 week curricula positively impacted the parenting skills of treatment group participants (N = 54), but not control group participants (N = 25), as evidenced by blind, quantitative coding of responses to hypothetical parent-child scenarios. As an instructor of an undergraduate parent-child relations course, I frequently ask students during the first session to indicate why they chose this class, and how they anticipate using the class content after the quarter ends. Every time I have asked, the vast majority of my students have indicated that, at the conclusion of the class, they wanted to either be a better or help someone else to be a better parent. Their responses are not particularly surprising, given that being a better parent is perhaps the most natural and obvious application of material from a parenting and family relations course. However, a cursory review of available college-level family texts suggests that the instruction of parenting skills is not typically an explicit focus; rather, parenting skills are often considered the domain of community parenting education programming. College level family interaction texts and classes instead emphasize developmental theories, parenting frameworks, and empirical studies related to children and parents. Although those areas do indeed represent important bodies of scholarship in the parent-child domain, and thus appropriately occupy a central role in a university course, the present study is based on the premise that students' parenting skills can be significantly improved by utilizing an applied, skill-based text and specifically integrating developmental theory, parent-child conceptual frameworks, and empirical studies into the curriculum. An Curriculum Applied curriculum here refers to both the material communicated and the manner of communication. Specifically, I propose a that includes (a) developmental theory, emphasizing the appropriate role of parents from each theoretical perspective and (b) research- supported parenting conceptual frameworks, specifying from both dimensional and typological

THE ECONOMY AND THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 2008

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.Prior to the 2008 presidential election we provided forecasts of the final vote relying on a model containing only two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the thirteenth quarter of the sitting president's term; and (2) the incumbent party candidate's share in the most recent trial-heat polls. The novelty is the reliance on the advanced reading of the economy from the quarter ending in March of the election year. (The exact equation and the exact forecast change as the poll readings get closer to the election.) Our final forecast (Erikson and Wlezien 2008) based on trial-heat polls in August was that Barack Obama would win 52.2% of the two-party popular vote. This turned out to be quite close to the Election Day outcome of 53.5% (as of December 2), a little more than one percentage point above what we predicted.

Smart Fund Managers? Stupid Money?

We develop a model of mutual fund manager investment decisions near the end of quarters. We show that when investors reward better performing funds with higher cash flows, near quarter-ends a mutual fund manager has an incentive to distort new investment toward stocks in which his fund holds a large existing position. The short-term price impact of these trades increase the fund's reported returns. Higher returns are rewarded by greater subsequent fund inflows which, in turn, allow for more investment distortion the next quarter. Because the price impact of trades is short-term, each subsequent quarter begins with a larger return deficit. Eventually, the deficit cannot be overcome. Thus, our model leads to the empirically observed short-run persistence and long-run reversal in fund performance. In doing so, our model provides a consistent explanation of many other seemingly contradictory empirical features of mutual fund performance.

The Telling Trades of Mutual Funds

Under the assumption that mutual funds trade at quarter commencement, some funds exhibit and exploit persistent stock selection talent; i.e., the stocks purchased consistently outperform the stocks sold, and the higher turnover of these funds indicates that managers are capitalizing on their forecasting abilities. However, any evidence of sustained stock selection skill disappears when alternate trade-timing assumptions are considered, suggesting that some skilled managers are electing to trade earlier than previously assumed. Overall, my results question the appropriateness of the quarter end trading assumption and the validity of existing studies which employ it.

Portfolio Pumping: An Examination of Investment Manager Quarter-End Trading and Impact on Performance

Utilizing a database of daily institutional fund manager trades, we examine the contribution of strategic trading at quarter-end associated with potential 'portfolio pumping' or 'ramping up' of reported stock prices around quarter ends. We provide the first direct evidence that active fund managers tend to purchase illiquid stocks on the last day of the quarter, in stocks in which they already hold overweight portfolio positions. Consistent with the way fund managers are evaluated, we find the poor-performing managers display greater evidence of portfolio pumping. Both increased regulatory scrutiny and improvements to market microstructure design reduce the severity of stock price changes at quarter ends.

Lessons from the management of acute myocardial infarction

The National Service Framework for coronary heart disease set a number of challenging targets for the care of patients following an acute myocardial infarction. The Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project...

BUILDING THE PORTFOLIO

AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS SEEMED TO BE HANDLING the economic slowdown well enough earlier this year. Although business was less than stellar, units that were a real drag were going out the door. Money from the disposals went to shore up strong positions and add more attractive businesses. But when the firm reported earnings for the quarter ending June 30, it also announced a $153 million pretax charge. It was the fourth such charge in four years. Overcapacity led the company to bite the bullet and shut down some industrial gas and chemical businesses, halt some incomplete gas expansion projects, and eliminate a number of positions. Although the actions were harsh, they weren't unusual for Air Products, the 11th largest U.S.-based chemical company. In my mind, we've been restructuring for a while, says John P.Jones III, chairman, president, and chief executive officer. When the economy starts moving again, he expects four key areas to provide ...

Review of Trends in Insurance Securitization April 2002 to March 2003

The year 2002 was a record for insurance securitization. It's official. According to Marsh and McLennan $1.22 billion bonds were issued in 2002 versus $1.136 billion in 2000. Our own readings of history are slightly off calendar, usually measuring the 12 months in between first quarter ends. Nevertheless, like Marsh we believe that the most recent 12 months represent something of an uptick in activity. Like the margin by which the Marsh record was set, the magnitude of the uptick is small, tiny in fact, but potentially a significant harbinger of directional change. In truth, these are crumbs of comfort for those toiling in the vineyards of insurance securitization. The harvest from a great deal of intellectual and financial investment still eludes us. Notwithstanding, this article records the trends that have occurred during our last 12 months and the messages they contain for that brighter securitization future that surely lies ahead.

Short-Term Estimates of Euro Area Real GDP by Means of Monthly Data

The first official data releases of quarterly real GDP for the euro area are published about eight weeks after the end of the reference quarters. Meanwhile, ongoing economic developments must be assessed from various, more readily available, monthly indicators. We examine in the context of univariate forecasting equations to what extent monthly indicators provide useful information for predicting euro area real GDP growth over the current and the next quarter. In particular, we investigate the performance of the equations under the case that the monthly indicators are only partially available within the quarter. For this purpose, we use time series models to forecast the missing observations of monthly indicators. We then examine GDP forecasts under different amounts of monthly information. We find that already a limited amount of monthly information improves the predictions for current-quarter GDP growth to a considerable extent, compared with ARIMA forecasts. JEL Classification: C22, C53

The Impact of Announcement Timing on the Informativeness of Earnings and Dividends

We relate the informativeness of earnings and dividend announcements to their timing relative to the fiscal quarter end to which the earnings pertain. Evidence is provided that the information content of earnings decreases as the timing of its announcement relative to the fiscal quarter end increases, and that such information erosion is more pronounced for smaller firms. Evidence is also provided that the information content of dividend announcements increases as its timing relative to the fiscal quarter end increases, and that such information enhancement is relatively more pronounced for larger firms. The results suggest that preannouncement information precision and announced information precision have offsetting effects on the informativeness of financial information, and that the nature of the offset depends on the type of information and firm size. More specifically, the predisclosure information effect is more pronounced for earnings and small firms, whereas the announced (new) information effect is more pronounced for dividends and large firms.

Beyond Redemption: The Reporting Practices Of Unlisted Property Trusts

The deterioration over recent years of the Australian real property market brought the focus of public attention on to the investment entities which manage holdings of real properties. Concerns grew particularly about the stability and liquidity of unlisted property trusts. Some of the worries related to asset valuations and whether the balance-sheet representations of trusts' real property reflected likely recoverable amounts. These concerns were realised on 23 July 1991 when the Federal Government announced a 12-month freeze on redemptions from all existing unlisted property trusts. The significance of the financial reporting policies of unlisted property trusts is amplified when their size is considered: for the quarter ending 30 June 1991, assets under management in unlisted property trusts which were members of the Investment Funds Association of Australia (IFA) totalled $6.7 billion. This article describes a survey of unlisted property trusts' general-purpose financial reports.

Membership Admissions and Transfers during Quarter ending 31st July, 1964

Membership Admissions and Transfers during Quarter ending 31st July, 1964

Membership admissions and transfers during Quarter ending 31st January, 1964

Membership admissions and transfers during Quarter ending 31st January, 1964

Membership admissions and transfers during Quarter ending 31st October, 1963

Membership admissions and transfers during Quarter ending 31st October, 1963