Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods Research Articles

Socioecological vulnerability and the risk of zoonotic disease emergence in Brazil.

In developing countries, outbreaks of zoonotic diseases (ZDs) result from intertwined ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic processes that shape conditions for (i) increased contact between vulnerable human population and wildlife in areas undergoing environmental degradation and (ii) the rapid geographic spread of infections across socially vulnerable regions. In Brazil, recent increases in environmental and social vulnerabilities, amplified by economic and political crises, are potential triggers for outbreaks. We discuss Brazilian features that favor outbreaks and show a novel quantitative method for zoonotic risk assessment. Using data on nine ZDs from 2001 to 2019, we found that the most significant causal variables were vegetation cover and city remoteness. Furthermore, 8 of 27 states presented low-level risk of ZD outbreaks. Given the ZD-bushmeat connection, we identified central hunted mammals that should be surveilled to prevent spillover events. The current challenge is to coordinate intersectoral collaboration for effective One Health management in megadiverse countries with high social vulnerability and growing environmental degradation like Brazil.

Risk identification and quantitative assessment method of offshore platform equipment

Equipment failure risk identification and risk assessment are essential part of offshore platform equipment integrity management. Realizing the risk identification and quantitative assessment of offshore platform equipment and failure modes will help to formulate more reasonable risk management measures. However, the previous methods are not enough to support precise risk assessment of offshore platform equipment. Therefore, this paper proposes a new quantitative risk assessment method based on fuzzy set theory, gray correlation analysis and fuzzy Borda method. This paper creatively proposed the approach, which integrates the solid expressive ability of the fuzzy set theory to vagueness and uncertainty information, the strong point of GRA method in studying the dependence of failure modes, and the advantage of FBM for aggregating experts’ diversity evaluations. Based on the above integrated approach, the proposed risk assessment model can favorably capture and aggregate diversity evaluations of FMECA team members. In addition, the effectiveness of this method is verified by the risk assessment of offshore platform equipment. The new method solves the problem existing in the quantitative risk assessment of multiple risks and multiple FMECA reports. This comprehensive quantitative risk assessment method can screen out high-risk failure modes and essential components in a system, and provide a reference for maintenance decision-making of complex industrial systems. This paper is conducive to promote the application of PHM, RCM and AIM in high-risk industries such as oil and gas production.

Acceptable surface limits (ASLs) of skin sensitizers derived from the local lymph node assay (LLNA): BrdU-ELISA EC1.6 values and their relationships to known sensitization potency information.

Skin sensitization is an extremely important risk factor for occupational health and safety, and it would be desirable to set health-based exposure limits (HBELs) for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) based on the skin sensitizing potencies of chemical. We attempted to set acceptable surface limits (ASLs) as HBELs for skin sensitizers in the workplace based on the local lymph node assay (LLNA): BrdU-ELISA EC1.6 values. To calculate the ASLs, a safety assessment factor (SAF)interspecies value of 6, based on the EC1.6 values/human repeat insult patch test (HRIPT) NOEL ratios, a SAFinterindividual value of 10, and a SAFfrequency/duration value of 3 were applied, referring to previous literatures on SAFs for skin sensitization QRA, and the composite SAF was calculated as 180. The ASLs (mg/100 cm2 ) derived thus for 33 chemicals ranged from 0.001 to 10.417. Comparison of the ranges with known human sensitization potency classes and GHS subcategories revealed that use of GHS Category 1A chemicals needs to be controlled to ensure surface residue levels of less than 1mg/100 cm2 . To minimize sensitization risks, a quantitative sensitization risk assessment method for chemicals and appropriate risk management are necessary. This report provides a potentially useful ASL-based method of managing sensitization risk derived from LLNA: BrdU-ELISA EC1.6 values, comparison of the ASLs and known human sensitization potency data showed that GHS subcategorization results would be a primary information notifying ASL ranges to be required for minimizing the sensitization risk.

Improved quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline considering high-consequence areas

Currently, quantitative risk assessment is often used for pipeline safety analysis. However, the low probability of pipeline failure may produce a false safety evaluation result because high-consequence areas with high population densities cannot be effectively identified. Furthermore, nearly half of the gas leakage accidents in China have occurred in densely populated areas. Therefore, an improved quantitative risk assessment method is proposed. First, we establish two models: (1) a failure probability model based on improved historical failure and disaster derivation probabilities and (2) a risk consequence model considering potential direct and indirect losses based on the probability of disaster evolution. Considering the concept of human rights equality and the social model of “life is first” in China, a method to correct the loss value of life according to population density is proposed, which can effectively avoid the hidden phenomenon of high-consequence areas mentioned above. A pipeline in China is evaluated using this improved method. Compared with traditional evaluation results, the new evaluation method can effectively identify a high-consequence area and obtain more reasonable results. Thus, a pipeline maintenance plan can ensure the interests of enterprises and fully respect the lives of individuals threatened by the potential risk of the pipeline.

Quantitative risk assessment methodology of installation process for deepwater oil and gas equipment

Proper installation of deepwater oil and gas equipment is a prerequisite to ensure its service life. Deepwater equipment faces many challenges during installation, such as the complexity of the installation process and uncertainty of the environment. Thus, risk assessment is necessary to guide personnel in avoiding and addressing potential problems during the installation of deepwater equipment. This study proposes a quantitative risk assessment method of installation process for deepwater oil and gas equipment based on fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs). First, the flow chart of deepwater oil and gas equipment in installation process is translated into a main Bayesian networks (BNs). Second, risk factors in different stages of installation are determined from human, management, equipment, environment and third-party interference, and entire risk assessment model is established. Finally, the FBN model is quantitatively analyzed by introducing fuzzy set theory. An empirical study on the installation process of subsea blowout preventer (BOP) is conducted. The results show that the failure of the subsea BOP installation is a small probability event, and equipment factors have the most prominent effect on the installation process. The sensitivity analysis results are consistent with the quantitative analysis. The corresponding improvement measures are proposed according to the analysis results.

Tolerable Risk for Hydrogen Sulfide in Sewage Treatment Plant- STP

Hydrogen sulphide is a toxic gas, it can cause a range of physiological responses from simple annoyance to permanent injury and death. There are a number of approaches to deal with the impacts of toxic gases. This study focused on minimizing the hazard exposure for hydrogen sulfide in the different operational zones for activated sludge process in sewage waterplant. Research tools/ approaches conducted were interviews, toxic gas testers, analysis report interpretation & quantitative risk assessment method. The study was conducted on Arabian Peninsula during the period (September 2019- September 2021). The (13) operational locations tested for toxic gas concentrations were inlet chamber, outlet channel, coarse /fine screens, primary sedimentation tank, activated sludge tanks, secondary sedimentation tanks, gas desulfurization unit, disc filters, chlorine dosing unit, sludge dewatering, sludge silos and digester tanks. The study found that the highest concentration for H<sub>2</sub>S in the inlet chamber/ outlet channel. The severity hazards in the sewage treatment plant using activated sludge process are the asphyxiation by H<sub>2</sub>S was extremely high can cause harm to public health, followed by the radiation hazard followed by electrical hazard, then (working at height, mechanical, traffic, health, chemical, physical, ergonomic, environmental, microbial and natural). The frequency of hazards occurrence is asphyxiation by H<sub>2</sub>S was extremely high followed by the radiation hazard and health hazard including the infection with Covid 19 virus followed by mechanical hazard then (electrical, traffic, ergonomic, natural, chemical, physical and natural). Control measures were recommended to minimize the risk of asphyxiation by H<sub>2</sub>S in the working environment at the STP.

РИЗИКИ У ПРОЦЕСІ ОЦІНКИ ВАРТОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВА

Анотація. Досліджуються ризики у процесі оцінки вартості підприємства в системі обліково-аналітичного забезпечення. Метою дослідження є виявлення ризиків у процесі оцінки вартості підприємства, визначення можливих шляхів їх зниження, визначення ступеня генерації чи зниження вартості підприємства за поточного рівня ризику. Була сформульована гіпотеза, яка згодом отримала підтвердження. Досліджено сутність і роль ризиків у процесі оцінки вартості підприємства, а також процес розрахунку ризику визначення вартості підприємства через використання кількісних та якісних методів оцінки, сутність і роль ризиків у процесі оцінки вартості підприємства. Виявлено характер і види ризиків оцінки вартості підприємства. Запропоновано систему кількісних та якісних методів оцінки ризиків, що дає можливість визначити кількісні параметри ризиків і врахувати їх у показниках вартості підприємства шляхом її коригування. Досліджено структурно-логічну схему комплексної оцінки ризику; роботу багатьох учених з питання розроблення методологічних підходів до оцінки ризику цінності. Визначено загрози і фактори ризику, що визначають можливість використання відповідних методів оцінки ризиків (сценарії, аналогії, економіко-математичні, експертні оцінки тощо). Запропоновано розрахунок показників рівня ризиків. Досліджено етапи оцінки ризику в системі вартості підприємства. Визначено алгоритм формування вартості підприємства з урахуванням притаманних йому ризиків, що включає кілька етапів. Ключові слова: облік, вартість, ризик, підприємство, оцінка, система. Формул: 1; рис.: 2; табл.: 0; бібл.: 23.

Study on quantification scheme of weight coefficient for electrical fire risk assessment of high-rise building

Electrical fire is a very important fire type in high-rise building fire. Therefore, it has high research value for risk assessment of electric fire in high-rise buildings. However, it is difficult to accurately obtain the weight index coefficient of electrical fire risk assessment by single qualitative or quantitative risk assessment method, so the reliability and objectivity of electrical fire risk assessment cannot be guarantee. In order to solve this problem, a method of using numerical simulation to obtain different types of fire risk data is proposed. Then, taking fire risk influencing factors as the research object, a comprehensive fire risk evaluation system is established. Through the comprehensive evaluation system, the electrical fire risk data are evaluated to determine the electrical fire risk weight coefficient. The results show that the fire risk quantification scheme of weight coefficient proposed in this paper can eliminate the subjectivity of traditional expert ratings. The proposed evaluation standard is a comprehensive evaluation system based on the numerical simulation and analytic hierarchy process. Above mentioned method can improve the reliability and accuracy of the weight coefficient of electrical fire risk assessment, and provide a theoretical basis for the research and classification of fire risk.

Comparative analysis of risk assessment methods and the effectiveness of risk factor management

The modern conditions of the market economy create the need to develop a new strategy for managing a production enterprise operating under risk, to develop a risk analysis and assessment methodology. In order to successfully manage risks, it is necessary to be able to identify, analyze and predict them. The article considers approaches to risk assessment for industrial enterprises. A comparative analysis of methods for qualitative and quantitative risk assessment is presented and general measures for risk reduction are proposed.

Risk of Waterborne Parasitic Infection among Vegetables Producers in the City of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: An Attempt to Quantify Them Using the Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment Method

The use of wastewater in urban agriculture has been promoted as an alternative to water scarcity and as a means to increase soil fertilizer. However, the use of wastewater in urban agriculture raises major public health concerns, mainly due to the often high concentration of pathogenic micro-organisms. Waterborne parasites are a major health concern in this regard, especially in endemic areas, mainly due to the high environmental resistance of eggs/cysts combined with a low infectious dose. In this study, the parasitological risk to vegetables producers in Ouagadougou using polluted water was evaluated through the quantitative microbiological risk analysis method. For this purpose, the search for and quantification of viable parasite eggs and cysts in irrigation water was coupled with epidemiological surveillance of vegetables producers in Ouagadougou. Protozoa and helminths belonging to 9 species were recorded and samples analyzed. These include Ancylostoma sp., Ascaris lumbricoides, tapeworm’s sp, Strongyloides stercoralis, Entamoeba histolytica, Giardia lamblia. Despite the variability of isolated parasitic species, Ancylostoma sp. eggs were common and severe to all types of water. Moreover, epidemiological approach showed that there were more parasitic species found in irrigation water and also other parasitic species circulating among vegetable farmers. In addition, there is no statistical significant association between the type of water used for irrigation and the carried parasites by vegetable gardeners. However, contamination of the groups using the raw wastewater is once higher than those using well water. When one is interested in the groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation, these risks of contaminations are halved. These contaminations are halved when one looks at groups using treated wastewater as a source of irrigation water. Still, whatever the type of water used by the gardeners, they have a probability of infection with Ancylostoma sp. of around 9.83 × 10−1 pppy.

Extended Abstract to: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods for Carbon Storage: A Case Study for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage Facility

Extended Abstract to: Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods for Carbon Storage: A Case Study for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage Facility

A Dynamic and Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Marine Oil Spills Accruing in Extreme Winds Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

A Dynamic and Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Marine Oil Spills Accruing in Extreme Winds Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Standards and Problems for Epidemic Prevention in Buildings: A Systemic Review

The complexity of the building environment directly affects the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 inside the building. Therefore, the paper systematically reviewed the effective and feasible measures, designs and relevant epidemic prevention guidelines formed in the field of epidemic prevention during the period of COVID-19, as well as the excellent research and projects around the world. The study found that most of the people infected with COVID-19 were infected indoors, but the current building design was not included in the scope of epidemic prevention design, not effectively resist the spread of infectious diseases, and there is no standard guideline for epidemic prevention building design so far. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate building epidemic prevention standards, and by considering the epidemic prevention design in the architectural planning and design stage, the use of building epidemic prevention products, healthy wind environment design, etc. to establish a healthy building environment can effectively reduce the risk of epidemic transmission inside the building. However, due to insufficient epidemiological data and pathological research on the risk of epidemic transmission among residents, further research on the standards for epidemic prevention and quantitative risk assessment methods of building is limited.

Absence of virological and epidemiological evidence that SARS-CoV-2 poses COVID-19 risks from environmental fecal waste, wastewater and water exposures.

This review considers evidence for infectious severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) presence and COVID-19 infection and illness resulting from exposure to environmental fecal wastes and waters. There is no documented evidence that (1) infectious, replication-capable SARS-CoV-2 is present in environmental fecal wastes, wastewater or water, and (2) well-documented epidemiological evidence of COVID-19 infection, illness or death has never been reported for these exposure media. COVID-19 is transmitted mainly by direct personal contact and respiratory secretions as airborne droplets and aerosols, and less so by respiratory-secreted fomites via contact (touch) exposures. While SARS-CoV-2 often infects the gastrointestinal tract of infected people, its presence as infectious, replication-capable virus in environmental fecal wastes and waters has never been documented. There is only rare and unquantified evidence of infectious, replication-capable SARS-CoV-2 in recently shed feces of COVID-19 hospital patients. The human infectivity dose-response relationship of SARS-CoV-2 is unknown, thereby making it impossible to estimate evidence-based quantitative health effects assessments by quantitative microbial risk assessment methods requiring both known exposure assessment and health effects assessment data. The World Health Organization, Water Environment Federation, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and others do not consider environmental fecal wastes and waters as sources of exposure to infectious SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 infection and illness.

Monitoring and Quantitative Human Risk Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Using Integrated Satellite–UAV–Ground Survey Approach

Landfills are the dominant method of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in many developing countries, which are extremely susceptible to failure under circumstances of high pore water pressure and insufficient compaction. Catastrophic landfill failures have occurred worldwide, causing large numbers of fatalities. Tianziling landfill, one of the largest engineered sanitary landfills in China, has experienced massive deformation since January 2020, making early identification and monitoring of great significance for the purpose of risk management. The human risk posed by potential landfill failures also needs to be quantitatively evaluated. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, and ground measurements were combined to obtain landfill deformation data in this study. The integrated satellite–UAV–ground survey (ISUGS) approach ensures a comprehensive understanding of landfill deformation and evolution. The deformation characteristics obtained using the InSAR technique and UAV photogrammetry were analyzed and compared. A close relationship between the most severe mobility events, precipitation episodes, and was observed. Based on early hazard identification using ISUGS, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) method and F-N curves were proposed, which can be applied to landfills. The comparison showed that ISUGS allowed a better understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of the landfill and more accurate QRA results, which could be as references for local governments to take effective precautions.

Improving Risk Assessment for Transporting Dangerous Goods through European Road Tunnels: A Delphi Study

Managing the transportation of dangerous goods (DG) through road tunnels is of great importance since it is associated with a serious risk of accidents. The consequences of an accident involving DG, especially in the closed tunnel environment, might be more significant and even more catastrophic compared to the same accident occurring on an open road. This article presents the Greek experience regarding the application of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods for the transportation of DG through Greek road tunnels. The modified Delphi method, with the participation of nine experts, is employed to investigate the obstacles to successfully conforming with the mandatory European Union regulatory framework that applies to transport operations within the Trans-European road network. Recommendations are made to improve the applied QRA approach, to facilitate the cooperation between tunnel managers and emergency services, to communicate lessons learned and to enhance the training of risk assessors.

ENSURING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE ORGANIZATION BY REDUCING RISKS

The article examines the problems of ensuring the economic security of the organization, which are associated with external and internal risks that affect the stability of its functioning. For risk assessment, the methodology that provides for the calculation of integral indicators of the level of risk by its main types was used and it is based on the use of quantitative and qualitative methods of risk assessment, ta king into account the assessment of the probability of risk occurrence, as well as the amount of expected damage. Using modern research methods on the example of JSC Interregional TransitTelecom, an algorithm for determining the magnitude of risks is shown and a set of measures to identify, neutralize or minimize risks that can destabilize the functioning of an organization and lead it to bankruptcy is proposed.

A Systematic Review on Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control in Academic Laboratory

Laboratory work, practical work, and practical work-related experiments are usually carried out in academic laboratories. Laboratory users are continuously exposed to hazardous substances and equipment in the laboratory. Limited research has been conducted on risk assessment in academic laboratories. However, there is no comprehensive review on hazard identification and risk assessment in the academic laboratory. Thus, this paper presents an overview of the academic laboratory’s risk assessment, focusing on the risk assessment method, type of hazard, and control measures applied to eliminate the hazard. A total of 61 publications were identified from Scopus, IEEE Explore, and manual searching. The study was guided by PRISMA, and after the screening and eligibility process, 13 publications were selected and reviewed. Fifteen risk assessment methods were identified in the publication, with 53.3 % applied semi-quantitative method, 26.7% qualitative method and 20% quantitative method. For hazard identification, 54% discussed specific hazards, while 46% discussed non-specific hazards. Most of the hazard discussed was chemical hazard due to the hazardous nature of the chemical, the usage of chemical to conduct experiments in the laboratory, and the type of laboratory assessed which is mainly chemical laboratory. Most of the publications used at least more than one control measure to overcome the risk. The most common control measure applied is the combination of engineering control, administrative control, and personal protective equipment (PPE). In future work, simple, fast, low cost and efficient risk assessment is needed to aid academic laboratories in further improving laboratory risk management. A combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods may be required to enhance the risk assessment process by utilizing the positive aspect of both approaches. An online risk assessment may be needed to effectively communicate the risk to laboratory users to eliminate or reduce accident cases in the academic laboratory.

Development of a quantitative risk assessment method for a biomass gasification unit by combining DEMATEL-ISM and CM-TOPSIS

Development of a quantitative risk assessment method for a biomass gasification unit by combining DEMATEL-ISM and CM-TOPSIS

Актуальні аспекти формування системи ризик-менеджменту в банках України

Abstract. Introduction. The article discusses the main directions of organizing a risk management system in Ukrainian banks. In the process of creating effective banking management systems, it is necessary to ensure the optimal infrastructure of risk management. The current risk management mechanism requires improvement, taking into account the achievements of economic science, the real state and prospects of the development of banking, world experience. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to consider the main directions of the organization of the system - risk management of the bank, as well as the identification of the problems of formation and submission of proposals to improve the risk management system in banks of Ukraine. Results. The organizational and functional support of risk management in banks is investigated. It is determined that the banking risk management process should cover all structural levels of the bank - from the top management of the bank to the level at which risk is directly accepted. The main types of banking risks are considered: credit risk, currency risk, liquidity risk, interest rate and market risks. The main problems of the formation of the risk management system that the bank faces in the process of operating activities are identified. Among the current problems of risk management are the following: a low level of participation of bank supervisory boards in risk management, a lack of qualified personnel, an insufficient level of use of quantitative risk assessment methods, which can lead to inadequate assessment by banks of the level of riskiness of their operations; unprotected exchange of information between specialized branches of the bank. The main prospects for the development of risk management in Ukrainian banks are highlighted - this is the search for the optimal organizational structure that would organically include risk management at all stages of banking. Based on the analysis, proposals were made to improve the risk management system in Ukrainian banks: - high qualification of members of the risk management group; clear distribution of responsibilities in the middle of the group; confidence in personal responsibility. Conclusions. The solution of the main problems, among which there is a shortage of qualified personnel, a low corporate culture, a weak level of distribution of powers of collegial bodies and weak risk assessment methods, will make it possible to increase the efficiency of systemic management in banks, including in conditions of economic stability and stability of the banking system in Ukraine.