Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment Research Articles

Preliminary quantitative risk assessment of the effect of Salmonella on human health in retail fresh pork

A quantitative microbiological risk assessment was conducted for Salmonella spp. in fresh pork from retail stores to consumers in China in order to provide evidence for adopting effective risk management measures. The national food safety and risk monitoring data was used to estimate the initial contamination level of Salmonella in the retail fresh pork. The growth model and the cross-contamination model of Salmonella were referenced from the ComBase data base and scientific literature, respectively. Then the human health risk was predicted by the consumption of Salmonella-contaminated fresh pork and the Beta-Poisson dose-response model. The number of Salmonellosis per year among 1 million residents due to fresh pork was estimated to be 4748.The sensitivity analysis showed that the risk of Salmonellosis was mainly and positively correlated with the preparation rate of ready to eat food, the consumption quantity of pork, the initial contamination level of Salmonella in fresh pork, and the proportion of improper cleaning of knives and chopping boards. When the contamination level of Salmonella in fresh pork is controlled below 1 CFU/g, the average probability of illness will be reduced by 59.39%; the average probability of illness will be reduced by 58.97% by increasing the ratio of complete cleaning of chopping boards or the separation ratio of chopping boards for raw and ready-to-eat food to 90%. The risk could be effectively reduced by controlling the concentration of Salmonella contamination in retail pork or improving hygiene practices.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of complex microbial community in Prawn farm wastewater and applicability of nanoparticles and probiotics for eliminating of antibiotic-resistant bacteria

The current review highlighted the quantitative microbiological risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Prawn farm wastewaters (PFWWs) and the applicability of nanoparticles for eliminating antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB). The high availability of the antibiotics in the environment and their transmission into human through the food-chain might cause unknown health effects. The aquaculture environments are considered as a reservoir for the antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and contributed effectively in the increasing of ABR. The metagenomic analysis is used to explore ARGs in the non-clinical environment. V. parahaemolyticus is among the pathogenic bacteria which are transmitted through sea food causing human acute gastroenteritis due to available thermostable direct hemolysin (tdh), adhesins, TDH related hemolysin (trh). The inactivation of pathogenic bacteria using nanoparticles act by disturbing the cell membrane, interrupting the transport system, DNA and mitochondria damage, and oxidizing the cellular component by reactive oxygen species (ROS). The chloramphenicol, nitrofurans, and nitroimidazole are among the prohibited drugs in fish and fishery product. The utilization of probiotics is the most effective and safe alternative for antibiotics in Prawn aquaculture. This review will ensure public understanding among the readers on how they can decrease the risk of the antimicrobial resistance distribution in the environment.

A ready-to-use dose-response model of Campylobacter jejuni implemented in the FSKX-standard

Dose-response models are an important part of quantitative microbiological risk assessments. In this paper, we present a transparent and ready-to-use version of a published dose-response model that estimates the probability of infection and illness after the consumption of a meal that is contaminated with the pathogen Campylobacter jejuni. To this end, model and metadata are implemented in the fskx-standard. The model parameter values are based on data from a set of different studies on the infectivity and pathogenicity of Campylobacter jejuni. Both, challenge studies and outbreaks are considered, users can decide which of these is most suitable for their purpose. We present examples of results for typical ingested doses and demonstrate the utility of our ready-to-use model re-implementation by supplying an executable model embedded in this manuscript.

Antimicrobial Resistance in U.S. Retail Ground Beef with and without Label Claims Regarding Antibiotic Use

Antibiotics used during food animal production account for approximately 77% of U.S. antimicrobial consumption by mass. Ground beef products labeled as raised without antibiotics (RWA) are perceived to harbor lower levels of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria than conventional (CONV) products with no label claims regarding antimicrobial use. Retail ground beef samples were obtained from six U.S. cities. Samples with an RWA or U.S. Department of Agriculture Organic claim (n = 299) were assigned to the RWA production system. Samples lacking these claims (n = 300) were assigned to the CONV production system. Each sample was cultured for the detection of five antimicrobial-resistant bacteria. Genomic DNA was isolated from each sample, and a quantitative PCR assay was used to determine the abundance of 10 antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes. Prevalence of tetracycline-resistant Escherichia coli (CONV, 46.3%; RWA, 34.4%; P < 0.01) and erythromycin-resistant Enterococcus (CONV, 48.0%; RWA, 37.5%; P = 0.01) was higher in CONV ground beef. Salmonella was detected in 1.2% of samples. The AMR gene blaCTX-M (CONV, 4.1 log-normalized abundance; RWA, 3.8 log-normalized abundance; P < 0.01) was more abundant in CONV ground beef. The AMR genes mecA (CONV, 4.4 log-normalized abundance; RWA, 4.9 log-normalized abundance; P = 0.05), tet(A) (CONV, 3.9 log-normalized abundance; RWA, 4.5 log-normalized abundance; P < 0.01), tet(B) (CONV, 3.9 log-normalized abundance; RWA, 4.5 log-normalized abundance; P < 0.01), and tet(M) (CONV, 5.4 log-normalized abundance; RWA, 5.8 log-normalized abundance; P < 0.01) were more abundant in RWA ground beef. Although these results suggest that antimicrobial use during U.S. cattle production does not increase human exposure to antimicrobial-resistant bacteria via ground beef, quantitative microbiological risk assessments are required for authoritative determination of the human health impacts of the use of antimicrobial agents during beef production.

Using Economic Optimization to Derive Site-Specific Treatment Objectives

A procedure to estimate the economically efficient site- or system-specific treatment objective for enteric viruses in drinking water is presented. The health benefits of treatment are estimated using an existing quantitative microbiological risk assessment model for Rotavirus, which yields a reduction in burden of disease, measured in DALYs. The community’s willingness to pay for this reduced disease burden is then inferred using an estimate of the value of an avoided DALY from the literature. Economically efficient treatment occurs where the marginal cost of additional treatment equals the marginal benefit in terms of willingness to pay for avoided illness. In a case study on a small water system, capital and operating costs are estimated for four alternative treatment levels using commercially available UV disinfection systems. The case study results compare the economically efficient virus disinfection level, risk of infection, and burden of disease to international guidelines. A sensitivity analysis suggests that source water quality, population served, and the dose–response model are key inputs. Site-specific treatment objectives offer a viable alternative to prescribed national standards while respecting water safety and local autonomy.

Growth of Listeria monocytogenes in Partially Cooked Battered Chicken Nuggets as a Function of Storage Temperature.

Battered poultry products may be wrongly regarded and treated by consumers as ready-to-eat and, as such, be implicated in foodborne disease outbreaks. This study aimed at the quantitative description of the growth behavior of Listeria monocytogenes in fresh, partially cooked (non-ready-to-eat) battered chicken nuggets as function of temperature. Commercially prepared chicken breast nuggets were inoculated with L. monocytogenes and stored at different isothermal conditions (4, 8, 12, and 16 °C). The pathogen’s growth behavior was characterized via a two-step predictive modelling approach: estimation of growth kinetic parameters using a primary model, and description of the effect of temperature on the estimated maximum specific growth rate (μmax) using a secondary model. Model evaluation was undertaken using independent growth data under both constant and dynamic temperature conditions. According to the findings of this study, L. monocytogenes may proliferate in battered chicken nuggets in the course of their shelf life to levels potentially hazardous for susceptible population groups, even under well-controlled refrigerated storage conditions. Model evaluation demonstrated a satisfactory performance, where the estimated bias factor (Bf) was 0.92 and 1.08 under constant and dynamic temperature conditions, respectively, while the accuracy factor (Af) value was 1.08, in both cases. The collected data should be useful in model development and quantitative microbiological risk assessment in battered poultry products.

Using Risk–Benefit Analysis to Control Salmonella in Chicken Meat

Abstract We have created a risk–benefit analysis (RBA) model to assist in food safety decision-making by analyzing Salmonella control in Brazilian chicken meat. First, we described the issues in a risk profile and used a 5×5 matrix to rank the risks associated with Salmonella. We then classified the magnitude of benefits and costs of control measures using another matrix. Finally, we verified the beneficial effects of recommended control measures using Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). The RBA classified Salmonella contamination as risk 6, indicating that control measures should be taken in the short and medium terms. It also recommended the adoption of biosecurity measures on farms to reduce the prevalence of Salmonella in birds, better control of carcass washings and chiller tank management, and information placement on packages and campaigns to raise the awareness of the population about the need to control Salmonella contamination before consumption. On the other hand, it did not recommend better controls at scalding and defeathering. QMRA confirmed the beneficial effects of the recommended control measures. For example, as Salmonella prevalence in poultry increased from 4.04 per cent to 50 per cent, the risk of infection per serving also increased from 0.0080 to 0.071. Although better controls in washings and chiller tank management did not affect the risk of infection, it reduced Salmonella counts on carcasses. We assume that the presence of Salmonella on carcasses was due to improper thermal processing or cross-contamination, which increased the risk from 0.0080 to 0.015962. The RBA demonstrated the logic involved in the adoption of control measures, and this can be helpful in the risk management of food safety issues.

Emission characteristics of bioaerosol and quantitative microbiological risk assessment for equipping individuals with various personal protective equipment in a WWTP

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are a nonnegligible source of bioaerosols that can pose health risks to workers and nearby residents. Thus, this study systematically investigated the emission characteristics of the size distribution and concentration of Staphylococcus aureus bioaerosol in a WWTP. Then, the research focused on the quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of workers and nearby residents for equipping them with various grades personal protective equipment (PPE). Results showed that the peak proportion of the size distributions of bioaerosol particles in the three sources all obtained a size range between 3.3 and 4.7 μm. In the residential building, the peak proportion was larger (>7.0 μm). Referring to the three sources, the average bioaerosol concentrations were in the following sequence: inverted umbrella aerator tank > residual sludge storage yard > microporous aerator tank. The health risks of residents were generally 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than the other two exposure scenarios and were clearly beyond the benchmarks. Meanwhile, the health risks of the field engineer were usually lower than those of the staff at the residual sludge storage yard. In general, equipping workers and residents with PPE could at least decrease the health risks by one order of magnitude, and higher-grade PPE could appropriately promote the reduction of health risks. This research systematically delivered a series of novel data about the emission characteristics of Staphylococcus aureus bioaerosol in a WWTP. It advanced the understanding of the quantitative health risks of equipping individuals with various PPE.

Quantitative risk assessment of haemolytic uremic syndrome associated with beef consumption in Argentina.

We developed a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC)-contaminated beef (intact beef cuts, ground beef and commercial hamburgers) in children under 15 years of age from Argentina. The QMRA was used to characterize STEC prevalence and concentration levels in each product through the Argentinean beef supply chain, including cattle primary production, cattle transport, processing and storage in the abattoir, retail and home preparation, and consumption. Median HUS probability from beef cut, ground beef and commercial hamburger consumption was <10−15, 5.4x10-8 and 3.5x10-8, respectively. The expected average annual number of HUS cases was 0, 28 and 4, respectively. Risk of infection and HUS probability were sensitive to the type of abattoir, the application or not of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) for STEC (HACCP-STEC), stx prevalence in carcasses and trimmings, storage conditions from the abattoir to retailers and home, the joint consumption of salads and beef products, and cooking preference. The QMRA results showed that the probability of HUS was higher if beef cuts (1.7x) and ground beef (1.2x) were from carcasses provided by abattoirs not applying HACCP-STEC. Thus, the use of a single sanitary standard that included the application of HACCP-STEC in all Argentinean abattoirs would greatly reduce HUS incidence. The average number of annual HUS cases estimated by the QMRA (n = 32) would explain about 10.0% of cases in children under 15 years per year in Argentina. Since other routes of contamination can be involved, including those not related to food, further research on the beef production chain, other food chains, person-to-person transmission and outbreak studies should be conducted to reduce the impact of HUS on the child population of Argentina.

Modelling and magnitude estimation of cross-contamination in the kitchen for quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA).

In the kitchen of the consumer, two main transmission routes are relevant for quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA): the cross‐contamination route, where a pathogen on a food product may evade heating by transmission via hands, kitchen utensils and other surfaces, e.g. to non‐contaminated products to be consumed raw; and the heating route, where pathogens remain on the food product and are for the most part inactivated through heating. This project was undertaken to model and estimate the magnitude of cross‐contamination in the domestic environment. Scientific information from the relevant literature was collected and analyzed, to define the cross‐contamination routes, to describe the variability sources and to extract and harmonise the transfer fractions to be included as model parameters. The model was used to estimate the relative impact of the cross‐contamination routes for different scenarios. In addition, the effectiveness of several interventions in reducing the risk of food‐borne diseases due to cross‐contamination was investigated. The outputs of the model showed that the cutting board route presents a higher impact compared to other routes and replacement of the kitchen utensils is more effective than other interventions investigated; the transfer to other surfaces and objects, which can house bacteria in the environment, is also described. Laboratory cross‐contamination trials have been performed to estimate bacterial transfer via cutting, from the external surface of the meat to the cutting surfaces and to the knife. The results, obtained from the laboratory trials, show magnitudes of and differences in the bacterial transfer fraction to the knife and the cutting surface in relation to which side of the meat is contaminated. Despite the complexity of factors which influence bacterial transfer, the combination of laboratory work with mathematical modelling enhanced scientific understanding and appreciation of the uncertainty of the estimates. QMRA methodology results in magnitude estimation of cross‐contamination in the kitchen and evaluation of intervention strategies.

Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis associated with fermented sausage and dry-cured pork shoulder consumption in Argentina

The risk of acquiring listeriosis from consuming fermented sausages and dry-cured pork shoulder (capicola/bondiola) in Argentina was estimated using quantitative microbiological risk assessment. The model included data about initial prevalence and contamination level of Listeria monocytogenes, product formulation with or without a starter culture (lactic acid bacteria [LAB]), time and temperature during distribution and storage prior to consumption, and consumption patterns. The probability of listeriosis from fermented sausage consumption in at-risk populations was estimated with average values of <10−11 per portion consumed. The main factor associated with such probability was the use of LAB in fermented sausage production, which reduced the risk by at least three orders of magnitude. Meat mass pH during fermentation and water activity (aw) at the end of ripening were the factors having the greatest impact on the probability of listeriosis. Thus, LAB added during production, pH values < 5.1 at the end of fermentation and aw <0.93 during ripening indicated that the environment was not appropriate for L. monocytogenes development, suggesting that fermented sausages had an adequate safety level. On the other hand, the risk of listeriosis from dry-cured pork shoulder consumption was negligible, even in the most susceptible populations. Both aw level and the strict control of process temperature were the main risk factors for acquiring listeriosis. The level of protection given by the current Argentine microbiological criterion for fermented sausages and dry-cured pork shoulder (absence of L. monocytogenes in 25 g of product) would guarantee the safety of these products similarly to the <100 cfu/g cut used in other countries.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater treatment plants

The current global Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic has heightened calls for studies to evaluate respiratory exposure for wastewater treatment workers. In this global first study, we assess occupational health risks to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) operators from inhalation of aerosolized SARS-CoV-2 using a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework. The following considerations were used to develop the QMRA and assess the illness risks to workers: a) the proportion of the population who are infected and thus responsible for shedding SARS-CoV-2 into raw wastewater; b) the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in raw and treated wastewater; c) the volume of aerosolized water inhaled by a WWTP operator during work; d) humidity and temperature-dependent viability of coronaviruses in aerosolized waste water; e) estimation of the amount, frequency, and duration of exposure; and f) exposure doses. The variables were then fed into an exponential dose response model to estimate the risks in three scenarios representing low-grade, moderate and aggressive outbreaks. These scenarios were designed on the assumption of 0.03%, 0.3% and 3% of the wastewater-generating population being infected with SARS-CoV-2. In terms of averaged-out illness risk profiles, the individual illness risks for low grade, moderate and aggressive outbreak scenarios respectively are 0.036, 0.32 and 3.21 illness cases per 1000 exposed WWTP operators. Our study suggests that the risk of accidental occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in raw wastewater, via inhalation at the WWTP environment, is negligible, particularly when less than 0.3% of the population served by the plant are actively infected.

A Note to Review Information for the Risk Management of Salmonella on Raw Peanuts

ABSTRACT A Salmonella outbreak in 2007 affected at least 625 people in 47 states. As a result of this outbreak a number of initiatives were undertaken by the peanut industry. Review of scientific literature found very little data on the prevalence or thermal inactivation of Salmonella. Additional outbreaks reinforced the need for more data. Research was commissioned by the American Peanut Council (APC) to provide processors information needed in mitigating the risk of Salmonella in raw peanuts. Studies were completed to provide prevalence, concentration, and time/temperature conditions to thermally inactivate Salmonella present. Subsequently, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was performed and published. These studies and QMRA were reviewed with their results used to suggest potential risk management practices. When considering risk management both actual baseline results and what-if data for factors were explored. Prevalence and concentration of Salmonella is best controlled with established Good Agricultural Practices that can be recommended by processors to suppliers. Storage was shown to significantly reduce Salmonella levels, however there is limited opportunity for control due to quality requirements that are dependent on shelf-life. Blanching was shown to only minimally reduce Salmonella levels. Lower consumption of raw peanuts reduced risk moderately. Higher log reductions through roasting was shown to effectively reduce risk, potentially more so for split peanuts. This article reviews the research studies commissioned by the American Peanut Council and related quantitative microbiological risk assessments and factors for decision making that risk managers at peanut and peanut product processing facilities should consider for hazard control measures.

Human campylobacteriosis related to cross-contamination during handling of raw chicken meat: Application of quantitative risk assessment to guide intervention scenarios analysis in the Australian context

Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a methodology used to organize and analyze scientific information to both estimate the probability and severity of an adverse event as well as prioritize efforts to reduce the risk of foodborne pathogens. No QMRA efforts have been applied to Campylobacter in the Australian chicken meat sector. Hence, we present a QMRA model of human campylobacteriosis related to the occurrence of cross-contamination while handling raw chicken meat in Western Australia (WA). This work fills a gap in Campylobacter risk characterization in Australia and enables benchmarking against risk assessments undertaken in other countries. The model predicted the average probability of the occurrence of illness per serving of salad that became cross-contaminated from being handled following the handling of fresh chicken meat as 7.0 × 10−4 (90% Confidence Interval [CI] ± 4.7 × 10−5). The risk assessment model was utilized to estimate the likely impact of intervention scenarios on the predicted probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) per serving. Predicted relative risk reductions following changes in the retail prevalence of Campylobacter were proportional to the percentage desired in the reduction scenario; a target that is aiming to reduce the current baseline prevalence of Campylobacter in retail chicken by 30% is predicted to yield approximately 30% relative risk reduction. A simulated one-log reduction in the mean concentration of Campylobacter is anticipated to generate approximately 20% relative risk reductions. Relative risk reduction induced by a one-log decrease in the mean was equally achieved when the tail of the input distribution was affected—that is, by a change (one-log reduction) in the standard deviation of the baseline Campylobacter concentration. A scenario assuming a 5% point decrease in baseline probability of cross-contamination at the consumer phase would yield relative risk reductions of 14%, which is as effective as the impact of a strategic target of 10% reduction in the retail prevalence of Campylobacter. In conclusion, the present model simulates the probability of illness predicted for an average individual who consumes salad that has been cross-contaminated with Campylobacter from retail chicken meat in WA. Despite some uncertainties, this is the first attempt to utilize the QMRA approach as a scientific basis to guide risk managers toward implementing strategies to reduce the risk of human campylobacteriosis in an Australian context.

Differences in resistance to different environmental stresses and non-thermal food preservation technologies among Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica strains

In this work the resistance of 15 strains belonging to 11 serovars of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica to several different environmental stresses (acid, hydrogen peroxide, NaCl and heat) and non-thermal food preservation technologies (HHP, PEF, UV) was determined and compared. Results obtained showed that differences in resistance among strains, quantified as 2D-values, varied less than 2.4-fold for all agents, including heat if S. senftenberg 775W is excluded from the analysis. These results also indicate that variability in resistance among strains of the same serovar was comparable to inter-serovar variability. Salmonella strains that were the most resistant to a given stress were not more resistant to other types of stress. Nevertheless, a positive correlation was observed between the resistance of Salmonella strains to oxidative and osmotic stress, as well as between UV and PEF resistance. These results would be especially helpful in defining safe food preservation processes and might be very useful for improving quantitative microbiological risk assessments of Salmonella in food products.

A Systematic Review of Beef Meat Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Models.

Each year in Europe, meat is associated with 2.3 million foodborne illnesses, with a high contribution from beef meat. Many of these illnesses are attributed to pathogenic bacterial contamination and inadequate operations leading to growth and/or insufficient inactivation occurring along the whole farm-to-fork chain. To ensure consumer health, decision-making processes in food safety rely on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) with many applications in recent decades. The present study aims to conduct a critical analysis of beef QMRAs and to identify future challenges. A systematic approach, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, was used to collate beef QMRA models, identify steps of the farm-to-fork chain considered, and analyze inputs and outputs included as well as modelling methods. A total of 2343 articles were collected and 67 were selected. These studies focused mainly on western countries and considered Escherichia coli (EHEC) and Salmonella spp. pathogens. Future challenges were identified and included the need of whole-chain assessments, centralization of data collection processes, and improvement of model interoperability through harmonization. The present analysis can serve as a source of data and information to inform QMRA framework for beef meat and will help the scientific community and food safety authorities to identify specific monitoring and research needs.

Application of data science in risk assessment and early warning.

The food supply chain has been recognised by the EU as a critical infrastructure, and its complexity is the main cause of vulnerability. Depending on the food matrix, natural and/or deliberate contamination, food‐borne diseases or even food fraud incidents may occur worldwide. Consequently, robust predictive models and/or software tools are needed to support decision‐making and mitigating risks in an efficient and timely manner. In this frame, the fellow participated in data collection and analysis tasks, so as to provide additional predictive models. The working programme, covered a wide range of aspects related to risk assessment including identification of emerging risks (quantitative), microbiological risk assessment, authenticity assessment, spatio‐temporal epidemiological modelling and database formation for hosting predictive microbial models. The training and close integration, in the open‐source, in‐house (German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR)) developed software tools under the framework of FoodRisk‐Labs (https://foodrisklabs.bfr.bund.de.) for data analysis, predictive microbiology, quantitative microbiological risk assessment and automatic data retrieval purposes allowed for the independent use. Moreover, the fellow actively contributed to the update of the upcoming Yersinia enterocolitica risk assessment, and also in authenticity assessment of edible oils. Over the course of the year, the fellow was closely involved in international and national research projects with experts in the above‐mentioned disciplines. Lastly, he consolidated his acquired knowledge by presenting his scientific work to conferences, and BfR‐internal meetings.

Quantitative risk assessment ofListeria monocytogenes in a traditional RTE product.

Ready to Eat (RTE) cooked meat products are among the most consumed RTE food subcategories in the EU. They are also associated with the highest number of listeriosis cases per year. Contamination with Listeria monocytogenes may arise from post‐processing and its growth is often supported by the pH and water activity of the product. L. monocytogenes may grow during refrigeration and reach unacceptable levels at the time of consumption, posing a public health risk. The aim of this study was to conduct a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) of L. monocytogenes in a traditional Italian RTE cooked meat product. Data for the risk assessment included prevalence and concentration of the microorganism, temperature‐time conditions during transport and storage, information on the growth of the microorganism and its potential for disease (dose–response). These data were obtained from laboratory analysis of product samples (n = 50), a consumer survey (n = 160), recordings of temperatures of domestic refrigerators (n = 60) and were complemented with information from the literature. The data were described with appropriate probability distributions and introduced into a previously described growth model of L. monocytogenes. Based on the above components, a probabilistic model was created to evaluate the growth of L. monocytogenes at each stage of the product pathway (retail storage, transportation and domestic storage) using Monte Carlo simulations. The model design for this pathogen/food product combination, alongside with the findings of the study are included in a separate publication (manuscript under preparation). The results may help risk managers to apply appropriate control measures to minimise the public health risk. The project contributed to further education of the fellow, especially in the use of QMRA risk analysis tools and laid the foundations for future collaborations between the fellow's home institution, the University of Crete, Greece and the University of Perugia, Italy.

A quantitative risk assessment model for salmonellosis due to milk chocolate consumption in Brazil

This study intended to estimate the probability of salmonellosis in the Brazilian population due to milk chocolate consumption using a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA). The QMRA model was built to predict the fate of Salmonella through milk chocolate production. The model was divided into three modules: (a) cocoa pre-processing, (b) milk chocolate processing, and (c) milk chocolate consumption and risk characterization, in which was considered the exposure to Salmonella and the risk of illness. Sixteen scenarios were evaluated considering different levels of cocoa seeds contamination (from −2.0 to 1.0 log CFU/g and from −1.4 to 4.0 log CFU/g of Salmonella), different roasting temperature (110 °C and 140 °C) for 15–50 min, cocoa formats (whole-beans or nibs)], and the occurrence of cross-contamination after roasting (from −2.0 to 1.0 log CFU/g of Salmonella. Simulations predicted that consumption of milk chocolate contaminated with Salmonella would result in a mean number of salmonellosis cases/week of 1.3E+05 when the initial concentration of this pathogen ranged from Pert (−2.0 to 1.0 log CFU/g) and nibs were roasted at 140 °C for 15–50 min. On the other hand, when the initial concentration of Salmonella ranged from Pert (−1.4 to 4.0 log CFU/g) and nibs were roasted at 110 °C for 15–50 min; the predictions indicated a mean number of salmonellosis cases/week of 3.2E+07. The simulations also indicated that scenarios in which cross-contamination could occur (in the levels studied) after roasting did not influence the risk of salmonellosis significantly. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the risk of salmonellosis due to the consumption of milk chocolate in the Brazilian population, which can help risk managers and the chocolate industry to enhance the food safety of this product.

Human mastadenovirus in water, sediment, sea surface microlayer, and bivalve mollusk from southern Brazilian beaches

Anthropogenic contamination of beaches in the south of Brazil was assessed by detection of Escherichia coli, human mastadenovirus species C (HAdV-C) and F (HAdV-F) and hepatitis E virus (HEV). Sampling was carried out in October (2016), and in January, April and July (2017). Water, sediment, sea surface microlayer (SML), bivalves, and air sentinel samples were evaluated. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was used to estimate the probability of swimmer infection. HAdV-C was present in 26% of the samples, for both qPCR and viral isolation. The highest rates of detection in genomic copies (GC) were in water (2.42E+10 GC/L), SML (2.08E+10 GC/L), sediment (3.82E+08 GC/g) and bivalves (3.91E+07 GC/g). QMRA estimated daily and annual risks with a maximum value (9.99E-01) in almost all of the samples. Viable HAdV-C was often detected in the SML, pointing that this is a source of infection for people bathing in these waters.