Quantitative Decision Analysis Research Articles

The 'Chagrin Factor' and Qualitative Decision Analysis

When clinicians evaluate the complicated benefits, risks, and costs of alternative options in patient care, a method of easing the decisional process is offered by the formal quantitative strategy called decision analysis . 1,2 Many practicing clinicians, however, are uncomfortable with quantitative decision analysis, because its mathematical components differ substantially from the customary processes of clinical judgment. According to the quantitative model, the best decision in a particular clinical situation depends on an appropriately added series of individual probability-utility scores. The individual scores are formed when a probability value, which represents the estimated rate of occurrence for each possible outcome event, is multiplied by a utility value, which is an arbitrarily assigned numerical rating for the relative degree of joy, despair, or costs associated with the event. These composite scores are an unfamiliar quantitative element in clinical reasoning. 3 Clinicians are accustomed to thinking separately about individual probabilities for the possible

Decision analysis for water resources planning

Quantitative decision analysis techniques were applied to a particular problem of water resources planning: how should the water supply of the metropolitan Boston area be increased to meet the projected demand for 1990? The analytic approach used a multiattribute value model to evaluate several alternatives from the points of view of different interested constituencies. The model was presented to a number of individuals and groups with responsibility for recommending policy, and they indicated an interest in the findings.

Negotiation of International Oil Tanker Standards: An Application of Multiattribute Value Theory

Quantitative decision analysis techniques are applied to a particular problem of bargaining and negotiation: How should a negotiating team representing the United States prepare for an international conference on tanker safety and pollution prevention? The negotiating team had a short time to prepare for the Conference, which was to consider a number of complex and difficult measures on which there were considerable differences of opinion. The analytic approach used focused on a multiattribute value model that incorporated the views of many of the negotiating countries. This model was refined over the preparation period by both analysts and negotiators. The U.S. negotiators found that the model was useful for evaluating alternative proposals, anticipating and understanding the negotiating positions of other countries, generating promising compromise proposals, and communicating with other U.S. interest groups. The modeling effort helped the negotiators to identify a compromise proposal very similar to the one finally adopted by the Conference. As a result of the Conference important new international measures to improve the safety of oil tankers and help prevent pollution of the seas from ships were adopted.

Multiattribute decision analysis of desalination plant engineering management options with applications to Saudi Arabia

A quantitative approach based on decision and utility theories is applied to the selection of engineering management strategies for the operation of desalination plants. The method is powerful in dealing with multiobjective decisions and in accommodating for preferences of decision-makers. The analysis could be influenced by subjective valuation of attributes; however, thorough consideration of all the factors affecting the decision, both qualitatively and quantitatively is possible. As a demonstration of the methodology, analysis is made of the management policies of desalination plants in Saudi Arabia. The options in this case include reliance upon expatriates, indigent personnel, computer and automation or a mix between such alternate strategies. Qualitative investigation shows that shortage in properly trained manpower in developing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and the associated eagerness for development have made reliance on foreign expertise inevitable. However, foreign experts face several difficulties which often result in discouraging competent personnel especially those with management experience from being actively engaged in management of desalination plants. The host country often suffers in implementing large desalination projects, because of the inferior quality of available personnel, the lack of dedication and the temporariness of the nature of jobs held by foreigners including management positions. Participation of indigent personnel in management of large desalination plants may increase the opportunity of success; however, this is often done prematurely leading to setbacks in the execution of those projects. Intuitively, a mix between foreign and local experts and the use of computers and management strategies requiring minimum number of personnel seems to provide a large potential of success. However, proper selection and supervision of foreign experts is necessary. Such option requires the simultaneous development of adequate data and information banks. Use of quantitative decision analysis shows that extensive use of computers with minimum utilization of indigent personnel is the most preferred option. The second preference is the dependence on indigent personnel with extensive foreign training. Rank order of other options is also given.

Use of Decision Analysis for Optimizing Choice of Fire Protection and Insurance: An Airport Study

Use of Decision Analysis for Optimizing Choice of Fire Protection and Insurance: An Airport Study