Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Research Articles

Holocene climate conditions in central Yakutia (Eastern Siberia) inferred from sediment composition and fossil chironomids of Lake Temje

A 380 cm long sediment core from Lake Temje (central Yakutia, Eastern Siberia) was studied to infer Holocene palaeoenvironmental change in the extreme periglacial setting of eastern Siberia during the last 10,000 years. Data on sediment composition were used to characterize changes in the depositional environment during the ontogenetic development of the Lake Temje. The analysis of fossil chironomid remains and statistical treatment of chironomid data by the application of a newly developed regional Russian transfer functions provided inferences of mean July air temperatures (TJuly) and water depths (WD). Reconstructed WDs show minor changes throughout the core and range between 80 and 120 cm. All the fluctuations in reconstructed water depth lie within the mean error of prediction of the inference model (RMSEP = 0.35) so it is not possible to draw conclusions from the reconstructions. A qualitative and quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate in central Yakutia recognized three stages of palaeoenvironmental changes. The early Holocene between 10 and 8 ka BP was characterized by colder-than-today and moist summer conditions. Cryotextures in the lake sediments document full freezing of the lake water during the winter time. A general warming trend started around 8.0 ka BP in concert with enhanced biological productivity. Reconstructed mean TJuly were equal or up to 1.5 °C higher than today between 6.0 ka and 5.0 ka BP. During the entire late Holocene after 4.8 ka BP, reconstructed mean TJuly remained below modern value. Limnological conditions did not change significantly. The inference of a mid-Holocene climate optimum supports scenarios of Holocene climatic changes in the subpolar part of eastern Siberia and indicates climate teleconnections to the North Atlantic realm.

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate on Sicily

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene climate on Sicily

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

The importance of reconstructing past environments quantitatively in palaeoecology is reviewed by showing that many ecological questions asked of palaeoecological data commonly involve the reconstructions of past environment. Three basic approaches to reconstructing past climate from palaeoecological data are outlined and discussed in terms of their assumptions, strengths, and weaknesses. These approaches are the indicator-species approach involving bioclimateenvelope modelling; the assemblage approach involving modern analogue techniques and response surfaces; and the multivariate calibration-function approach. Topics common to all approaches are reviewed – presentation and interpretation, evaluation and validation, comparison, and general limitations of climate reconstructions. Challenges and possible future developments are presented and the potential future role of quantitative climate reconstructions in palaeoecology is summarised.

Proxy-to-proxy calibration: Increasing the temporal resolution of quantitative climate reconstructions

High-resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are often restricted by the difficulties of sampling geologic archives in great detail and the analytical costs of processing large numbers of samples. Using sediments from Lake Braya Sø, Greenland, we introduce a new method that provides a quantitative high-resolution paleoclimate record by combining measurements of the alkenone unsaturation index () with non-destructive scanning reflectance spectroscopic measurements in the visible range (VIS-RS). The proxy-to-proxy (PTP) method exploits two distinct calibrations: the in situ calibration of to lake water temperature and the calibration of scanning VIS-RS data to down core data. Using this approach, we produced a quantitative temperature record that is longer and has 5 times higher sampling resolution than the original time series, thereby allowing detection of temperature variability in frequency bands characteristic of the AMO over the past 7,000 years.

Paleoclimatic estimation reveals a weak winter monsoon in southwestern China during the late Miocene: Evidence from plant macrofossils

The late Miocene Xianfeng flora of Yunnan Province, southwestern China, was chosen to reconstruct the paleoclimate and the intensity of the Asian monsoon. Three available quantitative climate reconstruction methods from fossil plants, i.e. Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA), the Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), and the Coexistence Approach (CA) were used in this study. MATs (mean annual temperatures) resulting from these three approaches (i.e., LMA: 17.2±2.38°C; CLAMP: 15.43±1.25°C; CA: 17.2–21.7°C) appear to have been higher than the present (14.9°C), suggesting a much warmer climate in the late Miocene. Both the growing season precipitation (GSP) from CLAMP (1908.7±217.7mm) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) from CA (1206.0–1613.0mm) estimates are higher than modern values (1003.2mm (GSP) and 1038mm (MAP) respectively) indicating a more humid climate during the late Miocene. By comparing these with climates reconstructed from neighboring late Miocene floras, we conclude that the general late Miocene climate appears warmer and more humid than present conditions in southwestern China. Furthermore, the evident differences in estimated monthly temperatures between the summer and winter, and precipitations between the humid and dry seasons indicate the existence of seasonality, though not as strong as that of today. Difference in precipitation of dry season indicates a marked strengthening in the winter monsoon since the late Miocene. A new monsoon intensity index has also been defined based on precipitation seasonality to investigate the intensity of the Asian monsoon.

Human landscapes and climate change during the Holocene

Palaeoecological and archaeobotanical studies of past environments are essential for understanding the kinds of natural settings in which agriculture and prehistoric societies evolved. They increase our knowledge of how human activities have changed environment and vice versa. Human impact on vegetation cover was recognised from the beginning of modern palynological research (Firbas 1937; Iversen 1941). Based on plant communities described from traditional agriculture and the evidence from archaeobotanical records, Behre (1981) identified palynological anthropogenic indicators. They comprise pollen of cultivated plants together with their associated arable weeds and ruderals. These indicators have been widely used and adapted in different European regions (e.g. Rosch 1996; Brun 2011) and the Near East (e.g. Behre 1990). Apart from reconstructing the vegetation dynamics caused by humans, current palynological research attempts to identify the spatial scale and variation of human activities, and their precise duration and location in given landscapes. Recent advances in quantification and numerical analyses of pollen data including climate reconstruction and vegetation/land-cover modelling, which allow for more precise estimates of the opening of woodlands in past times as well as simulating possible scenarios of human impact on the vegetation and landscapes (e.g. Gaillard et al. 2008). With these methodologies, past and future anthropogenic land cover change can be explored (Gaillard et al. 2010). However, until now most applications of these approaches have mainly concentrated on northwestern Europe. Extending them to further regions would be of great interest. Numerical analyses are of increasing importance for estimating human impact on vegetation and to allow disentangling the human and climatically induced vegetation changes in some cases (Feurdean et al. 2010; Bakker et al. 2012). Climate models can be used for the interpretation of human–environment interactions (e.g. Riehl et al. 2009). However, climatic changes of the last millennia are usually too small in amplitude to be detected by most of the quantitative climate reconstructions using pollen data (Kuhl et al. 2010). Also, microand macro-charcoal records in palaeoecological and archaeobotanical studies serving as climate and human indicators are becoming increasingly relevant (Carcaillet et al. 2002). Investigations of charcoal in soil have focussed on the tropics, the boreal zone and around the Mediterranean, however recently the temperate zone has been integrated as well. In addition, on-site wood charcoal analyses can contribute to reconstructing the human impact on vegetation, especially in areas where no suitable pollen archives are available near human occupation sites (Riehl and Marinova 2008). E. Marinova (&) Centre for Archaeological Sciences, University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, bus 2408, 3001 Leuven, Belgium e-mail: elena.marinova@bio.kuleuven.be

Holocene vegetation and climate history at Haligu on the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain, Yunnan, SW China

This paper uses pollen analysis to investigate and document the changing climate and vegetation during the Holocene based on a 400 cm core in depth obtained at a wetland site at Haligu (3,277 m a. s. l.) on the Jade Dragon Snow Mountain in Yunnan, China. By applying the Coexistence Approach to pollen data from this core, a quantitative reconstruction of climate over the last 9,300 years was made based on each pollen zone and individual core sample, which reveals the temperature and precipitation change frequently during that time. The qualitative analyses show that from 9300 to 8700 cal. yr BP, the vegetation was dominated by needle-leaved forest (mainly Pinus and Abies), indicating a slightly cool and moderately humid climate. Between 8700 and 7000 cal. yr BP, evergreen broad-leaved forest, dominated by Quercus, became the predominant vegetation type, replacing needle-leaved forest at this elevation, implying a warmer and more humid climate. During the period 7000 to 4000 cal. yr BP, the vegetation changed to mixed needle-leaved and evergreen broad-leaved forest, indicating a warm and moderately humid climate, but somewhat cooler than the preceding stage. From 4000 to 2400 cal. yr BP, the vegetation was again dominated by evergreen broad-leaved forest, but coniferous trees (mainly Pinus) began to increase, especially relative to a decline in Quercus. This implies that the climate remained warm and humid but slight drier than previously. The evergreen Quercus phase (8700–2400 yr BP) was designated as the Holocene climatic optimum in the Haligu core sediments. It is correlated with a markedly greater abundance and diversity of pteridophytes spores than was recorded before or after this period. From 2400 cal. yr BP to present, the vegetation was dominated by needle-leaved forest, of which Pinus formed the predominant component, accompanied by Abies and Tsuga. This reflects a slightly cooler, humid climate but also correlates with a period of increasing human settlement on the lower slopes of the mountain. At this elevated site, several hundred metres above the highest present day settlements, direct palynological evidence of anthropogenic activity is uncertain but we discuss ways in which the marked decline in Quercus pollen during this period may reflect the impact of ways in which natural resources of the mountain have been utilised.

Comparing different calibration methods (WA/WA-PLS regression and Bayesian modelling) and different-sized calibration sets in pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction

We compare a Bayesian modelling-based technique with weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression in pollen-based summer temperature transfer function calibration. We test the methods using a new, 113-sample calibration set from Estonia, Lithuania and European Russia, and a Holocene fossil pollen sequence from Lake Kharinei, a previously studied lake in northeast European Russia. We find WA-PLS to outperform WA, probably because of smaller edge-effect biases in the ends of the calibration set gradient. The Bayesian-based calibration models show further improved performance compared with WA-PLS in leave-one-out cross-validation, while additional h-block cross-validation shows the Bayesian method to be little affected by spatial autocorrelation. Comparison with independent climate proxies reveals, however, some clear biases in the Bayesian palaeotemperature reconstructions, likely reflecting in part some specific limitations of our calibration set. As the selected prior parameters can significantly affect both Bayesian cross-validation performance and reconstructions, there is a clear need to further test the Bayesian method in different geographic contexts and over different timescales, with special attention given to the selection of the most realistic priors in each situation. In general, our finding that statistically well-performing transfer functions may produce clearly differing palaeotemperature reconstructions urges caution in transfer function-based inferences. We additionally test a spatially restricted, 58-sample subset of the full 113-sample calibration set. We find some reduced biases with the smaller set, likely because of complex, partially bimodal responses of several taxa along the longer temperature gradient, ill-suited for calibration methods assuming unimodal responses to climate.

Quantitative climate reconstruction from late-glacial and early Holocene plant macrofossils in western Norway using the probability density function approach

Climate changes during the deglaciation are often derived from proxies such as chironomids and pollen but reconstructions are particularly difficult during cold periods. Plant macrofossils in lake sediments can be numerous during cold, treeless periods. They can often be identified to species level and therefore have the potential to be used for quantitative climate reconstructions in treeless situations such as the late-glacial in western Norway.To explore the potential of using plant macrofossils to quantify late-glacial climate change we prepared a modern data-set by digitizing 600 arctic circumpolar species distributions. We combined them with gridded climate data to determine their species-climate envelopes for mean January and July temperatures. As a test, we selected species that grow in arctic Fennoscandia today and applied a probabilistic indicator species approach (probability density functions — pdf) to their modern occurrence data and found that contemporary temperatures can be reconstructed within the uncertainty ranges.We applied the approach to a late-glacial and early Holocene plant macrofossil sequence from Kråkenes, western Norway (5°E 62°1′N) and compared it to existing reconstructions made from pollen and chironomid fossil data. The reconstructed deglacial climate based on the plant macrofossil assemblage was comparable to the other proxy reconstructions except that the mean July temperature was higher during the coldest phase.Plant macrofossils provide additional information to the other proxy reconstructions and a probabilistic approach gives robust uncertainty estimates. This is a good starting point for obtaining more knowledge on late-glacial climate change using plant macrofossils.

A chironomid-based reconstruction of late glacial summer temperatures in the southern Carpathians (Romania)

Late glacial and early Holocene summer temperatures were reconstructed based on fossil chironomid assemblages at Lake Brazi (Retezat Mountains) with a joint Norwegian–Swiss transfer function, providing an important addition to the late glacial quantitative climate reconstructions from Europe. The pattern of the late glacial temperature changes in Lake Brazi show both similarities and some differences from the NGRIP δ18O record and other European chironomid-based reconstructions. Our reconstruction indicates that at Lake Brazi (1740ma.s.l.) summer air temperature increased by ~2.8°C at the Oldest Dryas/Bølling transition (GS-2/GI-1) and reached 8.1–8.7°C during the late glacial interstade. The onset of the Younger Dryas (GS-1) was characterized by a weak (<1°C) decrease in chironomid-inferred temperatures. Similarly, at the GS-1/Holocene transition no major changes in summer temperature were recorded. In the early Holocene, summer temperature increased in two steps and reached ~12.0–13.3°C during the Preboreal. Two short-term cold events were detected during the early Holocene between 11,480–11,390 and 10,350–10,190calyr BP. The first cooling coincides with the Preboreal oscillation and shows a weak (0.7°C) temperature decrease, while the second is characterized by 1°C cooling. Both cold events coincide with cooling events in the Greenland ice core records and other European temperature reconstructions.

A lacustrine GDGT-temperature calibration from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctic: Renewed potential for the application of GDGT-paleothermometry in lakes

Quantitative climate reconstructions are fundamental to understand long-term trends in natural climate variability and to test climate models used to predict future climate change. Recent advances in molecular geochemistry have led to calibrations using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), a group of temperature-sensitive membrane lipids found in Archaea and bacteria. GDGTs have been used to construct temperature indices for oceans (TEX 86 index) and soils (MBT/CBT index). The aim of this study is to examine GDGT-temperature relationships and assess the potential of constructing a GDGT-based palaeo-thermometer for lakes. We examine GDGT-temperature relationships using core top sediments from 90 lakes across a north–south transect from the Scandinavian Arctic to Antarctica including sites from Finland, Sweden, Siberia, the UK, Austria, Turkey, Ethiopia, Uganda, Chile, South Georgia and the Antarctic Peninsula. We examine a suite of 15 GDGTs, including compounds used in the TEX 86 and MBT/CBT indices and reflecting the broad range of GDGT inputs to small lake systems. GDGTs are present in varying proportions in all lakes examined. The TEX 86 index is not applicable to our sites because of the large relative proportions of soil derived and methanogenic components. Similarly, the MBT/CBT index is also not applicable and predicts temperatures considerably lower than those measured. We examine relationships between individual GDGT compounds and temperature, pH, conductivity and water depth. Temperature accounts for a large and statistically independent fraction of variation in branched GDGT composition. We propose a GDGT-temperature regression model with high accuracy and precision ( R 2 = 0.88; RMSE = 2.0 °C; RMSEP = 2.1 °C) for use in lakes based on a subset of branched GDGT compounds and highlight the potential of this new method for reconstructing past temperatures using lake sediments.

Onset and termination of the late-glacial climate reversal in the high-resolution diatom and sedimentary records from the annually laminated SG06 core from Lake Suigetsu, Japan

High-resolution diatom, sediment and pollen analyses of two sections from the annually laminated SG06 core from Lake Suigetsu were used to study the onset and termination of the late-glacial climate reversal in central Japan. Its broadly recognised counterpart is the Younger Dryas or Greenland Stadial-1 (ca. 12.85–11.65 cal. kyr BP based on the NGRIP ice core records). Our study suggests that accumulation of the analysed late-glacial sediments occurred in a deep and relatively cold water meso-eutrophic lake with a strong mixing regime and relatively high silica content. Combining these results together with available pollen-based environmental reconstructions we suggest that climate cooling, together with an intensified winter monsoon and thicker snow cover could influence changes in regional vegetation, sedimentation processes and trophic status of the lake during the transition from the last interstadial to stadial around Lake Suigetsu. A decrease in total pollen concentration and increase in Fagus pollen percentage indicate local vegetation stress/disturbances and suggest that cooling started at least 2–3 decades prior to the major shift in the inorganic sediment (accumulation of detrital layers) and in diatom assemblages (change from Aulacoseira ambigua to Aulacoseira subarctica dominance), which took about 10 years. The transition from the last stadial to the Holocene again shows that vegetation in the lake catchment area reacted first to the regional climate change, i.e. to the weakening of the winter monsoon and decrease in winter snow accumulation. The increase in the vegetation cover density and reduced volume of surface runoff associated with the decrease in melt water supply is likely responsible for the reduced soil erosion activity which caused the cessation in detrital layer accumulation and consequent decrease in the amount of nutrients brought to the lake and lowering of the water nutrient status. The latter process finally influenced changes in the diatom assemblages, including the return to dominance of A. subarctica ca. 30 years after the virtual disappearance of detrital layers from the sediment. Our results demonstrate the rapid response of the Lake Suigetsu system to the global cooling and subsequent warming, and allow clear definition of the onset and termination of the late-glacial climate reversal. Despite the fact that the lake system shows a more abrupt shift from the warm to cold (and cold to warm) environments than terrestrial records of vegetation demonstrate, we do not see any delayed response of local vegetation to the climate change. This last conclusion is of particular importance for application of the SG06 pollen record for quantitative climate reconstruction.

Reconstructions of annual summer precipitation and temperature in north-central China since 1470 AD based on drought/flood index and tree-ring records

The understanding of the ongoing climate change needs high-resolution records of the past, which are difficult to obtain in north-central China. Historical documents are unique materials for high-resolution (up to season) climate change reconstruction. Here, we report an attempt of quantitative climate reconstruction covering the main part of north-central China, by combining historical drought/flood index and tree-ring data. The rigorous verification tests confirm the fidelity of transfer functions used in the reconstructions. The precipitation and temperature anomalies/intervals were then defined based on the reconstructions. Finally, the intensity of several big droughts recorded in historical documents was re-examined and the dominant and recessive patterns of heat/water changes within the study area were identified. We concluded that (1) the droughts, occurred during the years of 1484 AD, 1585–1587 AD, 1689–1691 AD, 1784–1786 AD and 1876–1878 AD, were the results of rainless and torrid combination; (2) the droughts, occurred during the years of 1560–1561 AD, 1599–1601 AD, 1609 AD, 1615–1617 AD, 1638–1641 AD and 1899–1901 AD, were first caused by rainless summer, and then controlled by low precipitation and/or high temperature; (3) the droughts, occurred during the years of 1527–1529 AD, 1720–1722 AD, 1813–1814 AD, 1856–1857 AD and 1926–1930 AD, were first caused by torrid summer, and then controlled by both low precipitation and high temperature; (4) the dominant climate pattern within the study area consisted of warm–dry and cold–wet alternations, and the recessive pattern consisted of cold–dry and warm–wet alternations. We also showed that the drought/flood index is a valuable climate proxy in quantitative reconstructions, especially in places where tree-ring data is not available.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative Climate Reconstructions Based on Late-Quaternary Biological Proxies

The importance of reconstructing past environments quantitatively in palaeoecology is reviewed by showing that many ecological questions asked of palaeoecological data commonly involve the reconstructions of past environment. Three basic approaches to reconstructing past climate from palaeoecological data are outlined and discussed in terms of their assumptions, strengths, and weaknesses. These approaches are the indicator-species approach involving bioclimateenvelope modelling; the assemblage approach involving modern analogue techniques and response surfaces; and the multivariate calibration-function approach. Topics common to all approaches are reviewed – presentation and interpretation, evaluation and validation, comparison, and general limitations of climate reconstructions. Challenges and possible future developments are presented and the potential future role of quantitative climate reconstructions in palaeoecology is summarised.

PAGES international course: South American climatology and quantitative high-resolution climate reconstructions in Palaeoecology

PAGES international course: South American climatology and quantitative high-resolution climate reconstructions in Palaeoecology

Quantitative climate reconstruction linking meteorological, limnological and XRF core scanner datasets: the Lake Sanabria case study, NW Spain

Monthly limnological monitoring in Lake Sanabria (Spain) since 1986 provided a unique opportunity to test relationships among climate, hydrology and lake dynamics and how they are recorded in the lake sediments. Four datasets were employed: (1) meteorological (monthly maximum and minimum air temperature and total precipitation), (2) limnological (Secchi disk, water temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, silicon, total and reactive phosphorus, and total chlorophylls and chlorophyll a), (3) hydrological (Tera River water input and output), and (4) XRF core scanner measurements carried out in short cores. Linear models between the different dataset variables allowed us to characterize the climate signal transmission from one to the other and cross-correlation analyses permitted us to identify the different response times (if any) between them. Principal Component Analyses (PCA) of the limnological and geochemical datasets allowed us to identify the main processes that link lake dynamics, primarily nutrient supply and organic productivity, with some sedimentological processes, e.g. organic matter and phosphorus accumulation. Sediment chronology was established by gamma spectrometry (210Pb). Water input to Lake Sanabria is controlled mostly by the Tera River input and is linked directly to precipitation. Response of the Lake Sanabria water budget to climate oscillations is immediate, as the strongest correlation between these two datasets occurs with no lag time. PCA of the limnological dataset indicated that most of the variance is related to nutrient input, and comparison with the Tera River water discharge shows that nutrient input was controlled mainly by oscillations in the hydrological balance. The lag time between the hydrological and limnological datasets is 1 month. The PCA of the XRF core scanner dataset showed that the principal process that controls the chemical composition of the Lake Sanabria sediments is related to sediment and nutrient delivery from the Tera River and organic productivity. Comparison of the nutrient input reconstructed using the limnological dataset and the XRF core scanner data indicated that the sediments act as a low-pass filter, smoothing the climate signal. It was, however, possible to establish the link between these datasets, and obtain a quantitative reconstruction of precipitation for the 1959–2005 AD period that captures the regional variability. This quantitative precipitation reconstruction suggests it is possible to obtain accurate climate reconstructions using non-laminated sediments.

Holocene seasonality changes in the central Mediterranean region reconstructed from the pollen sequences of Lake Accesa (Italy) and Tenaghi Philippon (Greece)

This study presents pollen-based climate reconstructions of Holocene temperature and precipitation seasonality for two high-resolution pollen sequences from the central (Lake Accesa, central Italy) and eastern Mediterranean (Tenaghi Philippon, Greece) regions. The quantitative climate reconstruction uses multiple methods to provide an improved assessment of the uncertainties involved in palaeoclimate reconstructions. The multimethod approach comprises Partial Least Squares regression, Weighted Average Partial Least Squares regression, the Modern Analogues Technique, and the Non-Metric-Multidimensional Scaling/Generalized Additive Model method. We find two distinct climate intervals during the Holocene. The first is a moist period from 9500 to 7800 cal. BP characterised by wet winters and dry summers, resulting in a strongly seasonal hydrological contrast (stronger than today) that is interrupted by a short-lived event around 8200 cal. BP. This event is characterised by wet winters and summers at Accesa whereas at Tenaghi Philippon the signal is stronger, reversing the established seasonal pattern, with dry winters and wet summers. The second interval represents a later aridification phase, with a reduced seasonal contrast and lower overall precipitation, lasting from 7800 to 5000 cal. BP. Present-day Mediterranean conditions were established between 2500 and 2000 cal. BP. Many studies show the Holocene to have a complex pattern of climatic change across the Mediterranean regions. Our results confirm the traditional understanding of an evolution from wetter (early Holocene) to drier climatic conditions (late Holocene), but highlight the role of changing seasonality during this time. Our data yield new insights into the aspect of seasonality changes, and explain the apparent discrepancies between the previously available climate information based on pollen, lake-levels and isotopes by invoking changes in precipitation seasonality.

Vegetation response to obliquity and precession forcing during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition in Western Mediterranean region (ODP site 976)

The ODP leg 161 Site 976 (Alboran Sea) is a deep-sea section sampled at a water depth of 1108 m in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Pollen analysis provides a vegetation and climate record of the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT), roughly one million years ago. The age-model tied to biostratigraphic events was revised by aligning the pollen climate index (PCI) to Mediterranean (KC01b) and global (LR04) oxygen isotope records. The studied time slice spans the interval ∼1.09 Ma (MIS 31) to ∼0.90 Ma (MIS 23). Across this interval, past phytogeography of nowadays extinct taxa, which were rare, allows a successful application of the modern analogues technique (MAT) to quantitative climate reconstructions for the MPT. Five, long-term, obliquity-related vegetation successions (O1 to O5), and eight short-term, precession-related vegetation successions (P1 to P8) are observed within the studied interval. These vegetation successions, regardless of their duration, show the same pattern: the progressive replacement of temperate trees by mountainous taxa, and then by herbs and steppe maxima. Precession-related successions correspond, therefore, to as dramatic vegetation changes as those driven by obliquity, including a final steppe phase under deteriorated climate conditions. Wavelet analysis of the PCI record shows that the Western Mediterranean experienced a shift at 1.01 Ma from precession-dominated frequencies (1.05–1.01 Ma) to obliquity-dominated frequencies (1.01–0.9 Ma). There is, therefore, an apparent discrepancy between wavelet analysis results and vegetation dynamic analysis (which suggests that obliquity and precession are recorded throughout the entire studied interval). This discrepancy could result from the fact that the PCI record sums, somehow, similar vegetation changes (wet to dry) occurring at different periodicities. Such a complex vegetation dynamics is mathematically rendered through a single parameter (i.e. principal component), which does not successfully catch the subtle combinations of variability occurring at two close periodicities. Furthermore, the pollen-inferred Early Pleistocene vegetation dynamic (and climate) of the Western Mediterranean region does not show a decrease of the obliquity response relative to the precession response at the onset of the MPT.

Tendencias climáticas para los pastizales pampeanos durante el Pleistoceno tardío-Holoceno: estimaciones cuantitativas basadas en secuencias polínicas fósiles

CLIMATIC TRENDS FOR THE PAMPA GRASSLANDS DURING THE LATE PLEISTOCENE-HOLOCENE: QUANTITATIVE ES- TIMATIONS BASED ON FOSSIL POLLEN SEQUENCES. Pollen-climate calibration models for mean annual temperature (Tan), annual precipitation (Pan) and precipitation efficiency (EP) are presented for the Pampa grasslands region (33o-41oS and 56o-67oW). The Pan and EP models were optimal (r2 boots =0,669 and 0,717; RMSEPboots= 16%) to apply Modern Analog Technique and to obtain late Pleistocene-Holocene quantitative climatic estimations ba- sed on fossil pollen from two alluvial sequences. In the central Pampa grasslands, Pan and EP values were 100 to 200 mm lower than present ones during the late Pleistocene (16000-12000 yr cal BP). During the Pleistocene- Holocene transition, early Holocene and late Holocene the values were similar to modern ones. In the southwest, Pan and EP values were c. 200 mm higher than present ones during the mid-Holocene (5500-3000 yr cal BP), and decreased during the late Holocene reaching similar modern values during the last 500 years cal. The climatic inferences agree with previous paleoclimatic interpretations that state dry to semiarid conditions during the la- te Pleistocene, and subhumid humid conditions during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and early Holocene. However, there are discrepancies as from 5000 yr cal BP, probably related to the different sensitivity of the cli- mate proxy data. The NE-SW precipitation gradient during the last c. 5500 yr cal may have been steeper than at present. These estimations are the first quantitative climatic reconstructions for the Pampa grasslands region, and should be taken as trends until new reconstructions confirm them.

Calibration-in-time versus calibration-in-space (transfer function) to quantitatively infer July air temperature using biological indicators (chironomids) preserved in lake sediments

Calibration-in-space (i.e. modern taxonomic assemblages of biota from many lakes located along a wide temperature gradient calibrated against meteorological data) is generally used to derive species-specific optima and tolerances. This results in transfer functions which then are applied to subfossil assemblages to quantitatively reconstruct environmental variables such as air/water temperature. Developing such transfer functions is time- and money-consuming, thus many biota-inferred temperature records are either based on transfer functions from other regions which might not take into account local characteristics or are only used qualitatively. In varved Lake Silvaplana (Engadine, Switzerland), another way of obtaining quantitative climate reconstructions from taxonomical assemblages preserved in lake sediments was assessed for the past 1000years. A calibration-in-time (i.e. taxonomic-assemblage-of-biota time series calibrated against meteorological data covering the same time period) was developed for chironomids (non-biting midges) using a weighted-average-partial-least-square (WAPLS) model and compared with a calibration-in-space model. The calibration-in-time had a weaker correlation coefficient (r2=0.71) than the calibration-in-space (r2=0.86), but the error of prediction (RMSEP=0.58°C) and the maximum bias (Max Bias=0.73°C) outperformed the statistics of the calibration-in-space (RMSEP=1.5°C; Max Bias=1.72). This result is probably due to the smaller temperature gradient of the calibration-in-time (6.5°C) than the calibration-in-space (11.5°C). For the last 150years, the Pearson correlation coefficient was significant between the two reconstructions (rPearson=0.52; p<0.01) suggesting that both models recorded a similar pattern of temperature changes. On the millennium time-scale, both models showed a warm “Medieval Climate Anomaly”, a cold “Little Ice Age” and a warming through the present with significant correlations (rPearson corrected for autocorrelation (corr)=0.61, p<0.01) until ca. 1780 AD and between ca. 1937 and 2000AD (rPearson corr=0.90, p<0.01). The reconstructions using both models significantly diverged between ca. 1780 and 1937AD (rPearson corr=−0.47, p<0.01). The results of both reconstruction methods were compared with four independent local and regional records of early instrumental and documentary data during the period of divergence. Both reconstructions showed similarities with the early instrumental/documentary records, thus it was inconclusive which of the reconstruction models provides the better estimates. However, these results suggest that a calibration-in-time can be used to reconstruct climate over the last 1000years when no calibration-in-space is available.