Quantitative Causality Research Articles

Penggunaan Media Kartu Angka Bergambar dalam Pembelajaran Anak Usia Dini Materi Pengenalan Angka dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Motivasi Belajar

The role of learning media is very large in achieving learning messages, namely teaching material. Learning media can provide reinforcement of the explanations delivered by the teacher. Picture numeric card media is a visual media that can be used in learning or function as a learning media. The use of pictorial number card media in the Early Childhood Education (PAUD) learning is very suitable because it is relevant to the style of learning that is learning while playing. One kind of kindergarten learning material is the introduction of numbers and simple counting operations that are part of elementary level mathematics learning. Submission of numerical recognition learning materials and simple counting operations can be done using specially designed numeric card media. The use of multiple number card media in learning in this study is to see the effect on children's learning motivation. This type of research is quantitative causality, which is to see the effect of using numeric card media on children's learning motivation. Because of the quantitative type, this study uses statistical calculations through the SPSS version 22.0 program which includes a prerequisite test for normality and homogeneity, hypothesis testing with partial tests or different tests (T test). The results of this study indicate the influence of multiple number card media on early childhood learning motivation in numerical recognition learning materials and simple count operations Al-Mahrus Integrated Kindergarten, Siti Khotijah 1 PAUD and TK Labschool IKIP PGRI Jember even semester 2018/2019 academic year.

Penerapan Model Pembelajaran Sains Teknologi Masyarakat dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Hasil Belajar ditinjau dari Kemampuan Matematis

So far there is still a growing view that social and scientific scientific development are two separate entities. Science and social work in different directions even across from shared values. Interest in developing science sometimes does not consider the needs and desires of the community as a representation of the social realm, and vice versa. Learning with the Community Technology Science model will provide solution answers to scientific and social ego issues so that they will hack into the relationship between the two. The Community Technology Science learning model will present learning that instills an understanding that between science and social must go together, the development of science must answer the needs and interests of society. This study tries to apply the Science Technology Community learning model with a review of the mathematical ability of its influence on learning outcomes. This study uses a hypothesis test (T test) using a statistical program and is a type of quantitative causality research. The research locations were Ambulu SMPN 2 and Rambipuji 2 Public Middle School with respondents as students of the two schools.

Improving the Effect of Work Satisfaction on Job Performance through Employee Engagement

<em>The purpose of this study to examine the effectiveness of employee engagement increases the effect of job satisfaction on job performance. This research is quantitative causality using a survey method that examines the relationship and influence between variables of research by analyzing 138 workers any mining companies that most cannot meet production targets in Kalimantan. The findings revealed that absorption full mediated the relationship between job satisfaction and job performance Management must invite employees to formulate job satisfaction, pay attention to employee conditions, selectively select employees, provide training to increase employee engagement. This paper is the first one to examine how employee engagement can function to mediate the relationship between job satisfaction and job performance.</em>

The Effects of Tax Avoidance, Accrual Earnings Management, Real Earnings Management, and Capital Intensity on the Cost of Equity

This study aims to examine the effects of tax avoidance, accrual profit management, real profit management, and capital intensity on equity costs. The population of this study is a manufacturing company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange which amounted to 146 companies. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling and resulted in 420 units of analysis. This type of research is quantitative causality by performing hypothesis testing analysis is done by using multiple linear regression model. The findings of this research are tax avoidance will add to the risks that must be borne by investors thus increasing uncertainty over their investment. Investors consider that accrual profit management actions are opportunistic as risk-taking actions as well as real profit management actions. While on Capital Intensity, investors assume the information on the company’s fixed assets is not useful in making investment decisions. The conclusions that can be taken are tax avoidance, accrual profit management, and earnings management real positive to the cost of equity. However, capital intensity has a negative effect.

Drug-Induced Liver Injury: Why is the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM) Still Used 25Years After Its Launch?

Launched in 1993 and partially based on the results of an international consensus meeting organized under the auspices of the Council of International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS), the Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method (RUCAM) is the most used causality assessment tool worldwide for the diagnosis of drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and herb-induced liver injury (HILI) in a large number of epidemiological studies, case reports, and case series. The 25-year experience of RUCAM use confirmed that the success was due to its objective, standardized, and liver-injury-specific approach structured with defined key elements derived from a series of DILI cases with positive rechallenge. Using this series, the validation procedure avoided arbitrary definitions and confirmed scores to key items. The algorithm provides a quantitative causality grading of highly probable, probable, possible, unlikely, or excluded relationship between the liver injury and the suspected product(s). Despite challenges, prospective use of RUCAM fosters case data completeness and transparent causality adjudication in real time, as opposed to subjective opinion resulting from several rounds by experts lacking defined key elements and scores. In 2016, RUCAM was updated with specification of alcohol use and Hepatitis E Virus (HEV) biomarkers and simplified item handling to further reduce inter-observer variability. RUCAM-based probable and highly probable DILI and HILI cases are essential for the detection of new hepatotoxins, confirmation of new biomarkers, description of clinical features and risk factors, and determination of incidence in pharmacoepidemiological studies. This article is intended to encourage systematic use of sophisticated causality assessment methods such as RUCAM to improve DILI and HILI case evaluation and to increase confidence in published cases.

LEADERSHIP STYLE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TEACHER PERFORMANCE IN SMAN 1 GAMBIRAN BANYUWANGI

The objective of this researchwas to analyze the influence of Leadership Style, Work Atmosphere, and Career Development on Teacher Performance.The object of this research is teacher at SMAN I GambiranBanyuwangi. Type of this research was quantitative causality. Respondents who were samples in this research were 51 teachers consisting of 44 civil servant teachers and 7 non-civil servant teachers. Data analysis tool used in this research was doubled linear regression. Technically, SPSS software version 2.2 was used to analyze the data. Respondents were 51 teachers consisting of civil servant and non-civil servant teachers. The results showed that the leadership style, work atmosphere and teacher career development partially affect the improvement of teacher performance. From the analysis result, three variables simultaneously also affect the performance of teachers. While of the three independent variables studied, the dominant variablewhich affects teacher performance was the principal leadership style. The results of this researchreinforced previous studies which state that leadership style is a very important variable in improving performance. The implications of this research showed that to improve teacherperformance, the principal needed to have a leadership style which is appropriate to the character of the organization he leaded. A supportive working environment would help teachers feel comfortable and secure so that their performance improves. Similarly career development needed to be planned so that teachers had the motivation to improve performance in the long termand it would be the capital to fulfill the expectations in their career development. The advice was given to improve career development performance in SMAN 1 GAMBIRAN is by develop the principal leadership style by the improvement of task oriented stye to support the implementation of the curiculum instead.

Effect of Spiritual Leadership to Organizational Culture and Employee’s Loyalty

<p>Although the leader of the Society’s Eye Hospital, East Java has the characteristics of spiritual leadership as in the dimensions of spiritual leadership developed by Fry (2003) including vision, hope / faith, and altruistic love, however the level of employee turn over is still high. To address this problem, the research is using a quantitative causality approach and SEM PLS model as the data analysis technique used. The result of the research shows that there is a significant positive influence on spiritual leadership towards the organizational culture. A significant positive influence of organizational culture also seen on employee’s loyalty, and there is a positive but insignificant influence of spiritual leadership on employee’s loyalty.</p>

PENGARUH FAKTOR SOSIAL TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN WISATAWAN DOMESTIK DALAM MEMILIH HOTEL BERBINTANG DI KAWASAN WISATA SENGIGI PULAU LOMBOK

This research is aimed at determining the effect of Reference Group, Family, Role and Status on the decision of Domestic Tourists in Choosing Tourist Hotel in Lombok. This research is quantitative causality study. The population of this research are customers of Sheraton Hotel and Killa Hotel. The samples were 100 respondents selected through purposive sampling. The data were analyzed with multiple linear regression using SPSS program.The research showed that reference group variable had positive and significant effect on the decision of domestic tourists in choosing Tourist hotel in Lombok, the family variable had positive and significant effect on the decision of domestic tourists in choosing Tourist hotel in Lombok, the role and status variable had positive and significant effect on the decision of domestic tourists in choosing Tourist hotel in Lombok. Keywords:Reference Group, Family, Role and Status, Decision of Domestic Tourists

Pengukuran Hasil Pendampingan Kelompok Wirausaha Baru di Kota Batu Tahun 2014

At the end of 2015, Indonesia will be entering ASEAN Economic Community. Indonesia as the largest population in South East Asia will be the largest market if the number of entrepreneur is less than standard number. Especially the competitiveness index of Indonesia comes to the 34th position in the world and in the 4th position in ASEAN. Indonesia economic growth cannot be separated from the contribution of SME. It contributes 98.7% of employment and 59,08% on gross domestic product. As contributor for Indonesia economic growth, SME also faces complex problems both internal and external. In attempt to improve quantity and quality of SME it requires well-programmed moves one of which is recent entrepreneurial assistance program organized by East Java Government. The present study aims at determining knowing mentoring component description and the effect of learning component on the success of recent entrepreneurial assistance program, the result of recent entrepreneurial assistance program, and supporting and obstacle Faktor of recent entrepreneurial assistance program in Batu. The present study employed quantitative causality associative model and embedded model of qualitative. The study consists of independent variable (X); purpose, material, instructor, media, and assistance method and dependent variable is the success of assistance program. The population of the study is the participants of entrepreneurship assistance program in Batu of 2014. The sampling technique employed is saturated sampling with 40 respondents. Analysis technique employed is multiple linear regression analysis and strengthens by the result of qualitative data analysis. The data obtained through questionnaires with Likert scale and interview. In conclusion, that the description of the mentoring program components assessed both by the participants, the size of the success of the mentoring program could be said to be good in size softskill but less good in size hardskill, the learning components; purpose, affects negatively to the success of assistance program, instructors and media affects significantly and positively to the success of assistance program, material and method do not affects significantly and positively to the assistance program. The supporting Faktor affecting the participants is faith and motivation while the obstacle Faktor is capital, tools and marketing management. The suggestions can be given is improving instructor competences and evaluating material and method of assistance program based on the needs of the participants.

Exploring the Big Data Using a Rigorous and Quantitative Causality Analysis

Causal analysis is a powerful tool to unravel the data complexity and hence provide clues to achieving, say, better platform design, efficient interoperability and service management, etc. Data science will surely benefit from the advancement in this field. Here we introduce into this community a recent finding in physics on causality and the subsequent rigorous and quantitative causality analysis. The resulting formula is concise in form, involving only the common statistics namely sample covariance. A corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing philosophical debate over correlation versus causation. The applicability to big data analysis is validated with time series purportedly generated with hidden processes. As a demonstration, a preliminary application to the gross domestic product (GDP) data of United States, China, and Japan reveals some subtle USA-China-Japan relations in certain periods.

Quantitative causality

Quantitative causality

Quantitative causality

Events generated by the execution of a distributed system are related by causality and concurrency. While providing a means of reasoning about the relative occurrence of events, this partial order fails to represent the timeliness of occurrence. In this paper, we develop a novel means of assigning weights to events where the weights are reduced as the temporal proximity to an anchor event decreases. This weight quantifies the strength of the causal or concurrent relationship with respect to an anchor event. Those events that causally succeed the anchor are the focus of this paper with concurrency and causally preceding being part of future work plans. Three methods of computing event weights for causally succeeding events are defined. Each contains a tunable parameter to determine the rate of weight decrease. The methods are piece-wise linear, exponential, and relevant vector difference decay. A case study has been performed that applied quantitative causality to the well-known software engineering problem of feature location. A summary of the case study results is provided to illustrate the utility of quantitative causality for succeeding events.

Herbalife hepatotoxicity: Evaluation of cases with positive reexposure tests

To analyze the validity of applied test criteria and causality assessment methods in assumed Herbalife hepatotoxicity with positive reexposure tests. We searched the Medline database for suspected cases of Herbalife hepatotoxicity and retrieved 53 cases including eight cases with a positive unintentional reexposure and a high causality level for Herbalife. First, analysis of these eight cases focused on the data quality of the positive reexposure cases, requiring a baseline value of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) < 5 upper limit of normal (N) before reexposure, with N as the upper limit of normal, and a doubling of the ALT value at reexposure as compared to the ALT value at baseline prior to reexposure. Second, reported methods to assess causality in the eight cases were evaluated, and then the liver specific Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale validated for hepatotoxicity cases was used for quantitative causality reevaluation. This scale consists of various specific elements with scores provided through the respective case data, and the sum of the scores yields a causality grading for each individual case of initially suspected hepatotoxicity. Details of positive reexposure test conditions and their individual results were scattered in virtually all cases, since reexposures were unintentional and allowed only retrospective rather than prospective assessments. In 1/8 cases, criteria for a positive reexposure were fulfilled, whereas in the remaining cases the reexposure test was classified as negative (n = 1), or the data were considered as uninterpretable due to missing information to comply adequately with the criteria (n = 6). In virtually all assessed cases, liver unspecific causality assessment methods were applied rather than a liver specific method such as the CIOMS scale. Using this scale, causality gradings for Herbalife in these eight cases were probable (n = 1), unlikely (n = 4), and excluded (n = 3). Confounding variables included low data quality, alternative diagnoses, poor exclusion of important other causes, and comedication by drugs and herbs in 6/8 cases. More specifically, problems were evident in some cases regarding temporal association, daily doses, exact start and end dates of product use, actual data of laboratory parameters such as ALT, and exact dechallenge characteristics. Shortcomings included scattered exclusion of hepatitis A-C, cytomegalovirus and Epstein Barr virus infection with only globally presented or lacking parameters. Hepatitis E virus infection was considered in one single patient and found positive, infections by herpes simplex virus and varicella zoster virus were excluded in none. Only one case fulfilled positive reexposure test criteria in initially assumed Herbalife hepatotoxicity, with lower CIOMS based causality gradings for the other cases than hitherto proposed.

Thermoeconomic diagnosis for improving the operation of energy intensive systems: Comparison of methods

The aim of thermoeconomic diagnosis of operating energy intensive systems is the determination of fuel consumption, the identification of the causes of its increment from design conditions and the quantification of the effect of each one of these causes. For this task, besides data acquisition and monitoring systems, a thermoeconomic diagnosis methodology is needed. After a review of methodologies, three of them are compared: quantitative causality analysis, linear regression and neural networks. These methods are based on thermodynamic indicators (more close to daily operation) instead of thermoeconomic parameters (which allow a homogeneous formulation); however, the first one is based on a thermodynamic description of the system, while the others are empirical. The comparison is based on the diagnosis of a 3 × 350 MW coal-fired-power plant for a time span of more than 6 years. Results show that quantitative causality analysis is able to quantify the effects of all variables while the others are only suitable for the most influential ones.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: Kava hepatotoxicity: comparative study of two structured quantitative methods for causality assessment

Ingestion of the medicinal herb kava has been associated with hepatotoxicity. We aimed to compare two different quantitative methods of causality assessment of patients with assumed hepatotoxicity by the herb. We assessed causality in 26 patients from Germany and Switzerland, using two structured quantitative analytical methods: the system of Maria and Victorino (MV) and that of the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS). In all 26 patients, regulatory ad hoc evaluation had suggested a causal relationship between liver disease and kava use. Assessment with the MV scale resulted in no or low graded causality for kava in the 26 patients with liver disease. Causality was probable (n=1), possible (n=2), unlikely (n=7), and excluded (n=16). Causality for kava was more evident with the CIOMS scale: highly probable (n=1), probable (n=2), possible (n=6), unlikely (n=2) and excluded (n=15). However, the results of both quantitative causality assessments are not supportive for most of the regulatory ad hoc causality assessments of the 26 patients. Grades of causality for suspected hepatotoxicity by kava were much lower when evaluated by structured quantitative causality assessment scales than by regulatory ad hoc judgements. The quantitative CIOMS scale is the preferable tool for causality assessment of spontaneous reports of hepatotoxcity involving kava.

Energy efficiency assessment and improvement in energy intensive systems through thermoeconomic diagnosis of the operation

Advanced monitoring techniques can play a key role in improving energy efficiency of operating energy intensive systems. In particular, thermoeconomic diagnosis aims at the determination of fuel consumption variation, the identification of causes of its increment from design conditions and the quantification of the effect of each one of these causes. A thermoeconomic diagnosis system installed in a coal-fired power plant has been used to analyse its operation during a time span of more than 6 years, quantifying the effects of variations in components (degradation, repairing and substitution), fuel quality, ambient conditions and operation strategy. The diagnosis method proposed (quantitative causality analysis) provides a precision of ±3% in addressing the source of inefficiency for about 70% of the cases.

Application of Quantitative Causality Analysis to the Quantification of Intrinsic and Induced Effects in the Thermoeconomic Diagnosis of a Coal-fired Power Plant

The aim of thermoeconomic diagnosis is to detect malfunctioning components in thermal systems and to quantify the additional fuel consumption caused by each these components. Thermoeconomics provides tools for this task such as malfunctions, malfunction costs and fuel impact formula, whose applicability to real examples may be difficult due to induced effects. On the other hand, the quantitative causality analysis is a diagnosis method based on a thermodynamic description of the system. In this paper, both approaches are integrated by applying the quantitative causality analysis to perform a systematic quantification of intrinsic and induced effects. The formulation is successfully applied to a coal-fired power plant. This paper is an updated version of a paper published in the ECOS'08 proceedings.

Kava hepatotoxicity: Regulatory data selection and causality assessment

Kava hepatotoxicity in 20 patients from Germany has been debated worldwide following a regulatory ad hoc causality assessment and ban of kava, an anxiolytic herbal remedy obtained from the rhizome of Piper methysticum Forster. We assessed causality with a quantitative structured causality analysis in all 20 cases of patients with liver disease, presented by the German regulatory agency that assumed a causal relationship with the use of kava extracts. The quantitative scale of CIOMS (Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences) in its updated form was employed for causality assessment and quality evaluation of the regulatory data presentation. The regulatory information is scattered and selective, and items essential for causality assessment, such as exclusion of kava independent causes, were not, or only marginally, considered by the regulator. Quantitative causality assessment for kava was possible (n=2), unlikely (n=12), or excluded (n=6), showing no concordance with the regulatory ad hoc causality evaluation. The regulatory data regarding kava hepatotoxicity is selective and of low quality, not supportive of the regulatory proposed causality; but instead, is an explanation of the overall causality discussions of kava hepatotoxicity. We are proposing that the regulatory agency reports data in full length and reevaluates causality.

Quantitative Causality Analysis for the Diagnosis of Energy Systems

The aim of Thermoeconomic diagnosis is to identify malfunctioning components in energy systems and to quantify the impact on fuel consumption caused by each of them. The quantitative causality analysis is a method based on the linearization of the thermodynamic model of the system. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated by quantifying the error produced in the diagnosis of a large amount of points of a real example. Additionally, a formulation to combine this approach with thermoeconomic analysis has been developed. It allows to precisely quantify intrinsic and induced effects. Finally, the method is compared with two diagnosis approaches based on linear regression and neural networks.

Kava hepatotoxicity: a clinical survey and critical analysis of 26 suspected cases

Hepatotoxicity has been previously suspected by national regulatory agencies in 26 patients in causal relationship with the treatment by kava extracts commonly used as herbal anxiolytic drugs. A quantitative causality assessment was undertaken using the system of the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences, scale of objective probability scoring. Causality was unassessable, unrelated, or excluded in 16 patients owing to lack of temporal association and causes independent of kava or comedicated drugs. Low Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences scores additionally resulted in excluded or unlikely causality assessments (n=2), leaving a total of eight patients with various degrees of causality for kava +/- comedicated drugs. Only one out of these eight patients adhered to the regulatory recommendations regarding both daily dose (<or=120 mg kavapyrones) and duration of therapy (<or=3 months) and experienced toxic liver injury with a probable causality for kava. In six cases with kava overdose and/or increased duration of kava treatment causality for kava was possible (n=3) and for kava together with the comedicated drug(s) possible (n=2) or probable (n=1). Kava taken as recommended is associated with rare hepatotoxicity, whereas overdose, prolonged treatment, and comedication may carry an increased risk.