Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Research Articles

Evaluation of the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BackgroundThe American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator (SRC) aims to help predict patient-specific risk for morbidity and mortality. The performance of the SRC among an elderly population undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unknown. MethodsPatients > 70 years of age who underwent hepatectomy for HCC between 1998 and 2017 were identified using a multi-institutional international database. To estimate the performance of SRC, 12 observed postoperative outcomes were compared with median SRC-predicted risk, and C-statistics and Brier scores were calculated. ResultsAmong 500 patients, median age was 75 years (IQR 72–78). Most patients (n = 324, 64.8%) underwent a minor hepatectomy, while 35.2% underwent a major hepatectomy. The observed incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) (3.2%) and renal failure (RF) (4.4%) exceeded the median predicted risk (VTE, 1.8%; IQR 1.5–3.1 and RF, 1.0%; IQR 0.5–2.0). In contrast, the observed incidence of 30-day readmission (7.0%) and non-home discharge (2.5%) was lower than median-predicted risk (30-day readmission, 9.4%; IQR 7.4–12.8 and non-home discharge, 5.7%; IQR 3.3–11.7). Only 57.8% and 71.2% of patients who experienced readmission (C-statistic, 0.578; 95%CI 0.468–0.688) or mortality (C-statistic, 0.712; 95%CI 0.508–0.917) were correctly identified by the model. ConclusionAmong elderly patients undergoing hepatectomy for HCC, the SRC underestimated the risk of complications such as VTE and RF, while being no better than chance in estimating the risk of readmission. The ACS SRC has limited clinical applicability in estimating perioperative risk among elderly patients being considered for hepatic resection of HCC.

Gerofit Prehabilitation Pilot Program: Preparing Frail Older Veterans for Surgery.

Older Veterans are increasingly undergoing surgery and are at particularly high risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Prehabilitation has emerged as a method to improve postoperative outcomes by enhancing the patient's preoperative condition. We present data from our prehabilitation pilot project and plans for expansion and dissemination of a nationwide quality improvement effort. The infrastructure of the existing Veterans Affairs (VA) Gerofit health and exercise program was used to create our pilot. Pilot patients were screened for risk of postoperative functional decline, assessed for baseline physical function, enrolled in a personalized exercise program, and prepared to transition into the hospital for surgery. Patients (n = 9) completed an average of 17.7 prehabilitation sessions. After completing the program, 55.6% improved in ≥2 of the 5 fitness assessments completed. Postoperative outcomes including complications, 30-day mortality, and 30-day readmissions were better than predicted by the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator. We have obtained institutional support for implementing similar prehabilitation programs at VA hospitals nationally through our designation as a VA Patient Safety Center for Inquiry. This is the first multi-institutional prehabilitation program for frail, older Veterans and represents an essential step toward optimizing surgical care for this vulnerable population.

Clinically meaningful labs for left pancreatectomy using the american college of surgeons national surgical quality improvement program (ACS-NSQIP®) surgical risk calculator

Clinically meaningful labs for left pancreatectomy using the american college of surgeons national surgical quality improvement program (ACS-NSQIP®) surgical risk calculator

Assessing the Performance of National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator in Elective Spine Surgery: Insights from Patients Undergoing Single-Level Posterior Lumbar Fusion

The American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator is a tool developed to use 21 individual patient characteristics to make predictions for occurrence of 13 general and 2 procedure-specific outcomes. The goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Surgical Risk Calculator in predicting outcomes in patients receiving posterior lumbar fusion. American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use File for 2015 was queried for patients with age ≥18 years undergoing single-level posterior lumbar fusion (PLF) surgery. Individual patient characteristics were entered into the online risk calculator interface to retrieve the predicted estimated risk for perioperative outcomes and complications. Following this, predictive performance was analyzed by computing Brier score, c-statistic, and sensitivity values for all observed outcomes. A total of 2808 patients undergoing single-level PLF were included in the analysis. Overall, a very low incidence of 30-day postoperative complications was observed with the procedure (0.9%-6.3%). Poor predictive performance was found for all outcomes, including readmissions (c-statistic= 0.63; sensitivity= 15.28%; Brier score= 0.048) and returns to operating room (c-statistic= 0.56; sensitivity= 21.05%; Brier score= 0.032). The best performance was observed for venous thromboembolism (c-statistic=0.66: Brier score= 0.008), although sensitivity was poor (3.85%) on account of low incidence. Predictive performance for length of stay revealed good agreement between observed and predicted values with the exception of prolonged predicted hospital stays (>3.5 days). This study assesses the performance of the risk calculator for a homogenous population of patients undergoing a single-level PLF. Although the calculator did not fare well in predicting most outcomes, results need to be interpreted in the context of the low incidence rate of such outcomes.

The American College of Surgeon's surgical risk calculator's ability to predict disposition in older gynecologic oncology patients undergoing laparotomy.

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator calculates risk of postoperative complications utilizing clinically apparent preoperative variables. If validated for patients with gynecologic cancers, this can be an effective tool in to use for shared decision-making, especially in the older (70+ years of age) patient population for whom surgical risks and potential loss of independence is increased. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator to predict discharge to a post-acute care among older (age 70+ years) gynecologic oncology patients undergoing laparotomy. The secondary objectives were to assess its ability to predict postoperative complications and death. This was a retrospective cohort study of gynecologic oncology patients 70+ years of age undergoing laparotomy. Surgical procedures, 21 preoperative variables, postoperative complications, and patient disposition were abstracted from the medical record. Risk scores for seven postoperative complications and discharge to post-acute care were calculated. The association between risk scores and outcomes were assessed using logistic regression and predictive ability was evaluated using the c-statistic and Brier score. 204 surgeries were performed on 200 patients between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013. The mean age was 76.3 ± 5.1 years; 87% were independent at baseline. A total of 79 (41%) were discharged to post-acute care. The calculator's ability to predict discharge to post-acute care was reasonable (c- statistic =0.708, Brier = 0.205). Although the calculator did not accurately predict all postoperative complications, the calculator's ability to predict death was strong (c-statistic = 0.811, Brier = 0.015). For older patients with an elevated calculated risk of discharge to post acute care the possibility of discharge to post-acute care should be discussed preoperatively. For patients with a higher risk of death, non-surgical management options should be considered when available.

Validation of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Risk Model for Patients Undergoing Panniculectomy.

This retrospective study included all patients who underwent a panniculectomy procedure at our institution from 2005 to 2016. Baseline characteristics, preoperative risk factors, medical comorbidities, and postoperative complications were collected via retrospective chart review. Two hundred sixty-four patients who underwent a panniculectomy were identified. The odds ratios of any postoperative complication were 8.26, 7.76, and 16.6 for patients with classes 1, 2, and 3 obesity, respectively (P < 0.05). Statistical modeling was utilized to evaluate the predictive performance of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator. We calculated the C-statistic for the ACS-NSQIP model to be only 0.61, indicating that although the model is associated with the risk of complication, it does not have a strong predictive value for this particular procedure. This study is one of the first to characterize postoperative complication rate based on extremum of body mass index for panniculectomy patients. Our results show that the utilization of the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator in this particular patient population underestimates the complication risk as a whole, which may necessitate the future development of a separate risk assessment model for this procedure.

Hypothyroidism Prolongs Hospitalization Following Surgery

Objective: Each year 45 million surgical procedures are performed in the United States, and a significant number of these are performed on hypothyroid patients. Little guidance is available to determine the postoperative risk to these subjects. We hypothesized that new surgical techniques and modern anesthesia would lead to no differences in outcome between hypothyroid patients and euthyroid controls. Methods: We queried surgical databases in our health system for patients who underwent an operative procedure between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015 with a TSH > 10 mcU/mL or a FT4 < 0.6 ng/dL. Identified patients were matched to euthyroid controls selected for age, sex, surgical procedure, and search interval. Predicted length of hospital stay (LOS) was determined using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator. Results: We identified 29 hypothyroid patients. The LOS was significantly longer for the hypothyroid patients compared to the predicted LOS (14.4 vs 6.7 days, P < 0.001). The LOS in the matched controls was not significantly different than their predicted LOS (9.6 vs 7.1 days, P = 0.11). Other complications were not different between the hypothyroid and control patients. Conclusions: In contrast to our initial hypothesis, hypothyroidism is associated with a 2-fold longer LOS following surgery. Hypothyroidism continues to place patients at increased surgical risk.

Rates of Serious Complications Estimated by the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Predicting Oncologic Outcomes of Patients Treated with Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Pancreatic Head Cancer

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to validate the predictive value of the oncologic outcome in addition to the validation of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator in patients treated with pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) or pylorus-preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy (PPPD) for pancreatic head cancer. MethodsFrom June 2005 to December 2014, 199 patients underwent PD or PPPD for pancreatic head cancer. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed for investigating general patient characteristics and any comorbid diseases. The calculated perioperative complication risks from the ACS NSQIP calculator were compared with observed complication rates. In a propensity score matching analysis, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated according to calculated severe complication rate (CSCR). ResultsThe CSCR > 17.9% (n = 69) and CSCR < 17.9% (n = 130) groups were significantly different considering number of the retrieved lymph nodes (22.95±14.0 vs 18.80 ± 10.1, p = 0.029), histologic grade (p = 0.0235), and incidence of lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.026). The CSCR < 17.9% group had longer DFS (17.0 vs. 11.0 months, p = 0.015), but the OS was similar between the groups (39.0 vs. 23.0 months, p = 0.48). In the 1:2 propensity score analysis, the CSCR < 17.9% group had longer DFS and OS (DFS 26.0 vs. 11.0 months, p = 0.009; OS 44.0 vs. 26.0 months, p = 0.023). ConclusionThe ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator predicts surgical risk in patients with pancreatic head cancer who undergo PD or PPPD. Furthermore, this tool can help predict the prognosis of surgically treated pancreatic head cancer.

Impact of the Choice of Risk Model for Identifying Low-risk Patients Using the 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Perioperative Guidelines

WHAT THIS ARTICLE TELLS US THAT IS NEW: BACKGROUND:: The 2014 American College of Cardiology Perioperative Guideline recommends risk stratifying patients scheduled to undergo noncardiac surgery using either: (1) the Revised Cardiac Index; (2) the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator; or (3) the Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest calculator. The aim of this study is to determine how often these three risk-prediction tools agree on the classification of patients as low risk (less than 1%) of major adverse cardiac event. This is a retrospective observational study using a sample of 10,000 patient records. The risk of cardiac complications was calculated for the Revised Cardiac Index and the Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest models using published coefficients, and for the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator using the publicly available website. The authors used the intraclass correlation coefficient and kappa analysis to quantify the degree of agreement between these three risk-prediction tools. There is good agreement between the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest estimates of major adverse cardiac events (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.70), while only poor agreement between (1) American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator and the Revised Cardiac Index (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.37; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.40), and (2) Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest and Revised Cardiac Index (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.30). The three prediction models disagreed 29% of the time on which patients were low risk. There is wide variability in the predicted risk of cardiac complications using different risk-prediction tools. Including more than one prediction tool in clinical guidelines could lead to differences in decision-making for some patients depending on which risk calculator is used.

Impact of a Novel Surgical Wound Protection Device on Observed versus Expected Surgical Site Infection Rates after Colectomy Using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Risk Calculator.

Surgical site infection (SSI) remains a persistent and morbid problem in colorectal surgery. A novel surgical device that combines barrier surgical wound protection and continuous surgical wound irrigation was evaluated in a cohort of elective colorectal surgery patients. A retrospective analysis was performed comparing rates of SSI observed in a prospective cohort study with the predicted rate of SSI using the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Risk Calculator. A prospective multi-center study of colectomy patients was conducted using a study device for surgical site retraction and protection, as well as irrigation of the incision. Patients were followed for 30 days after the surgical procedure to assess for SSI. After completion of the study, patients' characteristics were inserted into the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator to determine the predicted rate of SSI for the given patient population and compared with the observed rate in the study. A total of 108 subjects were enrolled in the study. The observed rate of SSI in the prospective study using the novel device was 3.7% (4/108). The predicted rate of SSI in the same patient population utilizing the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator was estimated to be 9.5%. This demonstrated a 61% difference (3.7% vs. 9.5%, p = 0.04) in SSI from the NSQIP predicted rate with the use of the irrigating surgical wound protection and retraction device. These data suggest the use of a novel surgical wound protection device seems to reduce the rate of SSIs in colorectal surgery.

Patient and Caregiver Understanding of Prognosis After Hip Fracture.

BackgroundHip fracture (HF) is common and requires communication between patient, family, surgeons, and hospitalists. Patient and family understanding of the seriousness of HF is unclear.MethodsWe interviewed older patients (age > 65 years) hospitalized with HF at two Canadian academic hospitals, or their surrogate decision-makers (SDMs). We used qualitative methods to explore understanding of HF treatment options and prognosis. Participants estimated probability of mortality and living independently 30 days after surgery. Results were compared with estimates from the National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) surgical risk calculator.Results9 patients and 3 SDMs were interviewed. Mean age of 12 patients was 82.5 years (75% female). Participants were uncertain about recovery timeline and degree of functional recovery, as well as content and duration of rehabilitation. Participants’ mean estimated 30-day mortality of 6.7% did not differ significantly from estimated mortality predicted by NSQIP (7.5%; p = .88). Participants’ mean estimated probability of living independently 30 days after surgery was 90.8% (range 65–100%).ConclusionsOlder patients and SDMs lack understanding about prognosis and functional recovery even after providing informed consent for HF surgery. Clinical teams should improve communication of prognosis and recovery information to patients and surrogates.

CON: Revised Cardiac Risk Index Should Be Used in Preference to American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator for Estimating Cardiac Risk in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery

CON: Revised Cardiac Risk Index Should Be Used in Preference to American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator for Estimating Cardiac Risk in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery

PRO: American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Risk Calculators Should Be Preferred Over the Revised Cardiac Risk Index for Perioperative Risk Stratification

PRO: American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Risk Calculators Should Be Preferred Over the Revised Cardiac Risk Index for Perioperative Risk Stratification

Complications Predicting Perioperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Elective Craniotomy: A Population-Based Study

The objective of this study was to assess the independent effect of complications on 30-day mortality in 32,695 patients undergoing elective craniotomy. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was queried for patients undergoing elective craniotomy from 2006 to 2015. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the effect of complications on mortality independent of preoperative risk and other postoperative complications. This effect was further assessed in risk-stratified patient subgroups using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator. Of 13 complications analyzed, the 5 most strongly associated with mortality independent of preoperative risk factors were unplanned intubation (odds ratio [OR], 12.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.5-15.4; P < 0.001), stroke (OR, 11.1; 95% CI, 8.3-14.9; P < 0.001), ventilator requirement >48 hours after surgery (OR, 9.9; 95% CI, 7.9-12.6; P < 0.001), and renal failure (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 4.4-16.2; P < 0.001). These same complications were also the 5 most associated with mortality independent of other postoperative complications. They were also associated with mortality across all risk-stratified patient subgroups. On the contrary, venous thromboembolism (OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.98-1.7; P= 0.06), urinary tract infection (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.76-1.6; P= 0.61), unplanned reoperation (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.83-1.4; P= 0.55), and surgical site infection (OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18-0.71; P= 0.004) showed no significant link with increased mortality independent of other complications. Of 13 complications analyzed, myocardial infarction, unplanned intubation, prolonged ventilator requirement, stroke, and renal failure showed the strongest association with mortality independent of preoperative risk, independent of other complications, and across all risk-stratified subgroups. These findings help identify causes of perioperative mortality after elective craniotomy. Dedicating additional resources toward preventing and treating these complications postoperatively may help reduce rates of failure-to-rescue in the neurosurgical population.

Revised cardiac risk index poorly predicts cardiovascular complications after adhesiolysis for small bowel obstruction

BackgroundThe number of patients undergoing preoperative risk stratification in the United States is expected to increase as the population ages. A large percentage of patients undergo some form of preoperative testing, and society guidelines suggest that up to 50% of the testing in lower risk surgical subgroups is unnecessary. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index and the risk calculator of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program are widely used tools as the first step of preoperative cardiac evaluation. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index was developed to fill a need for objective perioperative cardiac risk evaluation. Despite the ease of use of Revised Cardiac Risk Index, it is uncertain if the stratification is accurate for surgical patients because its accuracy in large surgical samples has not been tested. With the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk calculator having excellent accuracy in estimating cardiac complications (area under the receiver operating characteristic 0.895), a unique opportunity to test the predictive accuracy of postsurgical cardiac events became available. The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index for predicting cardiovascular complications after adhesiolysis for small bowel obstruction. MethodsFrom 2005 to 2015, 34,032 cases of open or laparoscopic adhesiolysis (Current Procedural Terminology codes 44005 and 44180) for small bowel obstruction (International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition [ICD-10]) were analyzed using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program dataset. Revised Cardiac Risk Index estimates were calculated for each case and compared to reported cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction or cardiac arrest) using univariable logistic regression. Overall predictive accuracy was assessed by measuring model discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic) and model calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistics). ResultsAlthough the Revised Cardiac Risk Index predicted cardiovascular complications with an odds ratio of 2.3 and a 95% confidence interval of 1.9 to 2.8 (P < .001) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square was significant (0.22, P = 0.64), the area under the receiver operating characteristic was poor (0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.59–0.67). ConclusionDespite its relative simplicity, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index performed poorly as a predictor of cardiovascular complications after adhesiolysis for small bowel obstruction. These findings question the utility of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index in this patient population. Future studies should aim to develop models that are computationally simple while retaining predictive accuracy.

Assessing the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program Risk Calculator in Cholecystectomy

The Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) risk calculator has been validated for several operations but has not been assessed specifically for cholecystectomy. Our aim was to externally validate the VASQIP calculator's accuracy in predicting 30-day morbidity and mortality (M&M) for patients undergoing cholecystectomy. A retrospective review of patients undergoing cholecystectomy at the North Texas Veterans Affairs hospital was performed. The VASQIP risk calculator was used to determine predicted 30-day M&M, which was compared with actual M&M. The predictive accuracy of the Veterans Affairs risk calculator was assessed using the C-statistic and a graphical assessment of a locally weighted least squares regression smoother. Overall, 848 patients were included in the study. Actual M&M were 6.3 and 0.94 per cent, respectively, whereas predicted M&M were 6.0 and 0.54 per cent. The C-statistic was 0.75 for morbidity and 0.78 for mortality. In our analysis, the VASQIP risk calculator reasonably predicted 30-day M&M.

Validation of the American College of Surgeons Risk Calculator for preoperative risk stratification

ObjectiveVarious risk prediction models are available to stratify patients before non-cardiac surgery and pave the way for anticipative and preventive measures. The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality...

Accuracy of the ACS NSQIP Online Risk Calculator Depends on How You Look at It: Results from the United States Gastric Cancer Collaborative

The objective of this study is to assess the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program online risk calculator for estimating risk after operation for gastric cancer using the United States Gastric Cancer Collaborative. Nine hundred and sixty-five patients who underwent resection of gastric adenocarcinoma between January 2000 and December 2012 at seven academic medical centers were included. Actual complication rates and outcomes for patients were compared. Most of the patients underwent total gastrectomy with Roux-en-Y reconstruction (404, 41.9%) and partial gastrectomy with gastrojejunostomy (239, 24.8%) or Roux-en-Y reconstruction (284, 29.4%). The C-statistic was highest for venous thromboembolism (0.690) and lowest for renal failure at (0.540). All C-statistics were less than 0.7. Brier scores ranged from 0.010 for venous thromboembolism to 0.238 for any complication. General estimates of risk for the cohort were variable in terms of accuracy. Improving the ability of surgeons to estimate preoperative risk for patients is critically important so that efforts at risk reduction can be personalized to each patient. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk calculator is a rapid and easy-to-use tool and validation of the calculator is important as its use becomes more common.

ACSNSQIP Risk Calculator in Indian Patients Undergoing Surgery for Head and Neck Cancers: Is It Valid?

Pre-operative assessment is vital to determine patient-specific risks and minimize them in order to optimize surgical outcomes. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACSNSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator is the most comprehensive surgical risk assessment tool available. We performed this study to determine the validity of ACSNSQIP calculator when used to predict surgical complications in a cohort of patients with head and neck cancer treated in an Indian tertiary care center. Retrospective data was collected for 150 patients with head and neck cancer who were operated in the Department of Head and Neck Oncology, Amrita Institute of Medical Sciences, Kochi, in the year 2016. The predicted outcome data was compared with actual documented outcome data for the variables mentioned. Brier's score was used to estimate the predictive value of the risk assessment generated. Pearson's r coefficient was utilized to validate the prediction of length of hospital stay. Brier's score for the entire calculator was 0.32 (not significant). Additionally, when the score was determined for individual parameters (surgical site infection, pneumonia, etc.), none were significant. Pearson's r value for length of stay was also not significant (p = .632). The ACSNSQIP risk assessment tool did not accurately reflect surgical outcomes in our cohort of Indian patients. Although it is the most comprehensive tool available at present, modifications that may improve accuracy are allowing for input of multiple procedure codes, risk stratifying for previous radiation or surgery, and better risk assessment for microvascular flap reconstruction.

Predicting morbidity of liver resection.

Multiple models have attempted to predict morbidity of liver resection (LR). This study aims to determine the efficacy of American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) surgical risk calculator and the Physiological and Operative Severity Score in the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) in predicting post-operative morbidity in patients who underwent LR. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients who underwent elective LR. Morbidity risk was calculated with the ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator and POSSUM equation. Two models were then constructed for both ACS-NSQIP and POSSUM-(1) the original risk probabilities from each scoring system and (2) a model derived from logistic regression of variables. Discrimination, calibration, and overall performance for ACS-NSQIP and POSSUM were compared. Sub-group analysis was performed for both primary and secondary liver malignancies. Two hundred forty-five patients underwent LR. Two hundred twenty-three (91%) had malignant liver pathologies. The post-operative morbidity, 90-day mortality, and 30-day mortality rate were 38.3%, 3.7%, and 2.4% respectively. ACS-NSQIP showed superior discriminative ability, calibration, and performance to POSSUM (p = 0.03). Hosmer-Lemeshow plot demonstrated better fit of the ACS-NSQIP model than POSSUM in predicting morbidity. In patients undergoing LR, the ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator was superior to POSSUM in predicting morbidity risk.