Pup Counts Research Articles

Initial growth of northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) colonies at the South Farallon, San Miguel, and Bogoslof Islands

Understanding the colonization or recolonization of breeding sites used by colonial animals is fundamental to metapopulation theory and has practical applications in conservation biology. Historically, pinniped species were heavily exploited worldwide, resulting in some breeding colonies becoming extirpated. As populations recover, some abandoned sites may be recolonized or new sites can be colonized. We analyzed aerial and ground survey data on pup counts from 3 islands (South Farallon, San Miguel, and Bogoslof) (re)colonized by northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus), using classical and Bayesian state-space modeling approaches to describe population growth rates during their initial 21 years, with particular focus on the South Farallon Islands. We used information from tagged animals that immigrated to the South Farallon Islands from San Miguel Island to describe the age and sex structure of the founding recolonizers of the South Farallon Islands. We also examined the evidence for the generality of Roux's (1987) description of fur seal population recovery using a literature review of published fur seal population growth rates. We found the 3 colonies had different annual population growth rates (South Farallon = 34%, San Miguel = 45%, Bogoslof = 59%), but all were growing at rates among the fastest observed for fur seals worldwide. Immigrants from San Miguel to the South Farallon Islands were younger and femalebiased relative to the tagged population at San Miguel Island. The general framework described by Roux (1987) was an effective description of observed fur seal population recovery. Our results inform our understanding of the initiation and growth of pinniped breeding colonies.

Increase of sub-Antarctic fur seals at the Tristan da Cunha Islands

Sub-Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus tropicalis, pups were counted on some of the beaches on all four Tristan da Cunha (TdC) islands, in January 2017, to determine the status of the population, in the face of climate change that is magnified in polar regions. Compared to counts done 40 years earlier on Gough, the breeding population increased markedly on some beaches, although negligibly on the largely open boulder beaches on the leeward northeastern sector of the island. Similarly, on the northern group of the TdC islands, the breeding population had increased markedly (including the very first pup counts at Inaccessible and Nightingale), despite fur seal females currently selecting only certain beaches for pupping (at Inaccessible and Tristan). At Tristan da Cunha, only one small breeding colony occurs which is remote from the human settlement, probably the result of anthropogenic disturbance.

Looking Without Landing—Using Remote Piloted Aircraft to Monitor Fur Seal Populations Without Disturbance

Technical advances in monitoring devices, specifically drones, are allowing managers and scientists to obtain quality information on ecosystem health with minimal disturbance to ecosystems and the wildlife they support. Temporal and spatial indicators of ecosystem health, such as population size and/or abundance estimates of marine mammals are the basis for our understanding and prediction of ecosystem change. This is critical for the achievement of conservation goals and sustainable natural resources use. Performing surveys to obtain abundance estimates can be logistically demanding and expensive particularly in offshore marine environments, and can cause significant disturbance to wildlife. These constraints may lead to sub-optimal monitoring programs that reduce the frequency and/or precision of surveys at the cost of data quality and confidence in the resulting analyses. Using Remote Piloted Aircraft (RPAs) can be a solution to this challenge. With appropriate testing and ethical consideration; for many situations, RPAs can perform surveys with increased frequency, higher data resolution and less disturbance than typical methods that involve people being present on the ground, thereby enabling more robust programs for monitoring. We demonstrate the process of testing images from RPAs for estimating the abundance of Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) at one of their largest colonies on Seal Rocks, Australia. Two sizes of quadcopter (1400 mm and 350 mm) with different imaging equipment were tested at 40, 60 and 80 m altitude above sea level. We assessed wildlife disturbance levels and optimised a methodology for effective and economical monitoring of this site. We employed commercially available and open-source software for programming survey flights (Drone Deploy), image processing (Agisoft Photoscan and Autopano Giga), data collation and analyses (R and Python). An online portal was developed to facilitate data collection, with the ultimate goal being the engagement of the public as citizen scientists in fur seal counts from RPA images. Preliminary comparisons show that a small RPA at 40 m altitude can produce pup counts 20-32% higher than corresponding ground counts without observable disturbance. The benefits and disadvantages of the RPA trials are discussed, as well as important considerations for those looking to incorporate similar methodologies in

Population growth and status of california sea lions

ABSTRACTThe California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) population in the United States has increased steadily since the early 1970s. The Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (MMPA) established criteria for management of marine mammals based on the concept of managing populations within the optimal sustainable population (OSP), defined as a range of abundance from the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) to carrying capacity (K). Recent declines in California sea lion pup production and survival suggest that the population may have stopped growing, but the status of the population relative to OSP and MNPL is unknown. We used a time series of pup counts from 1975 to 2014 and a time series of mark‐release‐resight‐recovery data from 1987 to 2015 for survival estimates to numerically reconstruct the population and evaluate the current population status relative to OSP using a generalized logistic model. We demonstrated that the population size in 2014 was above MNPL and within its OSP range. However, we also showed that population growth can be dramatically decreased by increasing sea surface temperature associated with El Niño events or similar regional ocean temperature anomalies. In this analysis we developed a critical tool for management of California sea lions that provides a better understanding of the population dynamics and a scientific foundation upon which to base management decisions related to complex resource issues involving this species. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Echoes from the past: Regional variations in recovery within a harbour seal population.

Terrestrial and marine wildlife populations have been severely reduced by hunting, fishing and habitat destruction, especially in the last centuries. Although management regulations have led to the recovery of some populations, the underlying processes are not always well understood. This study uses a 40-year time series of counts of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the Wadden Sea to study these processes, and demonstrates the influence of historical regional differences in management regimes on the recovery of this population. While the Wadden Sea is considered one ecologically coupled zone, with a distinct harbour seal population, the area is divided into four geo-political regions i.e. the Netherlands, Lower Saxony including Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Denmark. Gradually, seal hunting was banned between 1962 and 1977 in the different regions. Counts of moulting harbour seals and pup counts, obtained during aerial surveys between 1974 and 2014, show a population growth from approximately 4500 to 39,000 individuals. Population growth models were developed to assess if population growth differed between regions, taking into account two Phocine Distemper Virus (PDV) epizootics, in 1988 and 2002 which seriously affected the population. After a slow start prior to the first epizootic, the overall population grew exponentially at rates close to assumed maximum rates of increase in a harbour seal population. Recently, growth slowed down, potentially indicative of approaching carrying capacity. Regional differences in growth rates were demonstrated, with the highest recovery in Netherlands after the first PDV epizootic (i.e. 17.9%), suggesting that growth was fuelled by migration from the other regions, where growth remained at or below the intrinsic growth rate (13%). The seals’ distribution changed, and although the proportion of seals counted in the German regions declined, they remained by far the most important pupping region, with approximately 70% of all pups being born there. It is hypothesised that differences in hunting regime, preceding the protection in the 1960’s and 1970’s, created unbalance in the distribution of breeding females throughout the Wadden Sea, which prevailed for decades. Breeding site fidelity promoted the growth in pup numbers at less affected breeding sites, while recolonisation of new breeding areas would be suppressed by the philopatry displayed by the animals born there. This study shows that for long-lived species, variable management regimes in this case hunting regulations, across a species’ range can drive population dynamics for several generations.

Comparing occupied and unoccupied aircraft surveys of wildlife populations: Assessing the gray seal (<i>Halichoerus grypus</i>) breeding colony on Muskeget Island, USA

Unoccupied aircraft systems (UAS) are now frequently used in wildlife research, including studies of marine species. Researchers are turning to UAS platforms for population assessment purposes because they may provide flexible, safe, and low-cost data collection. In these cases, it is important that the accuracy and precision of UAS-based approaches are evaluated to ensure data quality and comparability with legacy data. The present study compares image quality and survey performance of two small UAS with that of an occupied aircraft as applied to a population survey and molt-stage assessment of gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) in the northeastern United States. Population surveys using fixed-wing UAS and occupied aircraft provided similar quality imagery with only minor deviations in counts of both adult seals (<1% difference) and pups (3.7% difference). The multicopter UAS proved especially useful for molt-stage assessment when compared to both fixed-wing UAS and occupied aircraft surveys. The results of this study clearly illustrate that small UAS are reliable tools for conducting population assessments of pinnipeds and establishing life history stages of animals. These new tools provide flexibility in operations and may reduce costs and human risk in some cases.

A re-examination of the timing of pupping for Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus breeding on two islands in Alaska

ESR Endangered Species Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials ESR 32:213-222 (2017) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00796 A re-examination of the timing of pupping for Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus breeding on two islands in Alaska Carey E. Kuhn*, Kathryn Chumbley, Devin Johnson, Lowell Fritz Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center/National Marine Fisheries Service/NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA *Corresponding author: carey.kuhn@noaa.gov ABSTRACT: Steller sea lions are distributed from Japan to the California coast, USA, and population demographics vary spatially, with populations in some regions increasing while others are declining. To assess changes in population size, aerial surveys are conducted annually to quantify pup production. The timing of these surveys is critical for accurate population estimates, and survey windows were determined based on historical estimates of mean pupping date. We reassessed the timing of pupping for Steller sea lions at 2 breeding islands in the central Gulf of Alaska, USA (Marmot Island) and the eastern Aleutian Islands (Ugamak Island) for evidence of temporal shift. Using land-based counts of pups, we quantified mean pupping date and the duration of the pupping season between 2003 and 2013 and compared these data to historical mean pupping dates between 1977 and 1999. The mean pupping date of 9 June on Marmot Island was not significantly different than the mean pupping date on Ugamak Island, 8 June. On Marmot Island, mean pupping date differed by 3.7 ± 0.9 d between beaches; however, mean pupping date did not differ between beaches on Ugamak Island. On Ugamak Island, mean pupping date was significantly earlier than previously reported by 2.5 d, but this may be an artifact of the limited number of years available for comparison. On Marmot Island mean pupping date was not different from historical dates. On both islands, 94.2 ± 1.6% of the pups were born prior to the planned start of aerial surveys in Alaska (23 June). Our results demonstrate that although mean pupping date was variable and may have shifted earlier relative to historical data at Ugamak Island, the current timing of the aerial survey is suitable for obtaining peak pup counts for Steller sea lions in these regions. KEY WORDS: Marmot Island · Pupping date · Pup production · Reproduction · Ugamak Island Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Kuhn CE, Chumbley K, Johnson D, Fritz L (2017) A re-examination of the timing of pupping for Steller sea lions Eumetopias jubatus breeding on two islands in Alaska. Endang Species Res 32:213-222. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr00796 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in ESR Vol. 32. Online publication date: February 28, 2017 Print ISSN: 1863-5407; Online ISSN: 1613-4796 Copyright © 2017 Inter-Research.

Variability in haul-out behaviour by male Australian sea lions Neophoca cinerea in the Perth metropolitan area, Western Australia

Pinnipeds spend significant time hauled out, and their haul-out behaviour can be dependent on environment and life stage. In Western Australia, male Australian sea lions Neo - phoca cinerea haul out on Perth metropolitan islands, with numbers peaking during aseasonal (~17.4 mo in duration), non-breeding periods. Little is known about daily haul-out patterns and their association with environmental conditions. Such detail is necessary to accurately monitor behavioural patterns and local abundance, ultimately improving long-term conservation manage- ment, particularly where, due to lack of availability, typical pup counts are infeasible. Hourly counts of N. cinerea were conducted from 08:00 to 16:00 h on Seal and Carnac Islands for 166 d over 2 yr, including 2 peak periods. Generalised additive models were used to determine effects of temporal and environmental factors on N. cinerea haul-out numbers. On Seal Island, numbers increased significantly throughout the day during both peak periods, but only did so in the second peak on Carnac. During non-peak periods there were no significant daytime changes. Despite high day-to-day variation, a greater and more stable number of N. cinerea hauled out on the sig- nificantly smaller beach of Seal Island during 1 peak. Overall, numbers hauled out were associ- ated with temperature and tidal height, but not wind speed. Relative percentages of age classes hauled out also varied with time of breeding cycle. Due to high variability in haul-out behaviour in space and time, and its association with environmental conditions, we conclude that counts for monitoring relative abundance in management decisions should be conducted systematically, using robust survey designs with relatively large sample sizes.

Rapid recovery of Dutch gray seal colonies fueled by immigration

AbstractGray seals were first observed breeding in the Dutch Wadden Sea in 1985, after centuries of absence. The breeding colony there is now the largest on the European continent. We describe the changes in gray seal numbers and their geographical expansion, and estimate how these processes were influenced by immigration from other colonies. Counts of hauled out animals were carried out between 1985 and 2013, monitoring three different periods of the seals' annual cycle. Using priors determined for the UK population, a Bayesian demographic model was fitted to pup numbers to estimate the population parameters driving the growth. This included immigration of subadults into the breeding population, which contributed to an average growth rate in the pup counts of 19%/yr, much higher than expected in a closed population. This immigration may account for approximately 35% of the total annual growth. In addition, at least 200 gray seals from the UK visit the area temporarily. Recovery of the population in the Netherlands occurred more than 50 yr after gray seals were protected in the UK. These time scales should be taken into account when studying long living marine mammals, e.g., in impact and conservation studies.

Examining the utility of fishery and survey data to detect prey removal effects on Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

One focus of mitigation for Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) declines in Alaska has been to restrict commercial fishery activity around sea lion rookeries and haul-outs. However, a variety of statistical hypothesis tests have failed to relate sea lion population metrics to fish and fishing variables, prompting speculation that regulations may be unwarranted. In this study, we use simulation to show that standard hypothesis tests often have overstated power to detect a relationship between Steller sea lion vital rates and fish or fishing variables. The power and utility of hypothesis tests largely depend on choosing appropriate dependent and independent variables. In particular, pup counts were the most effective for diagnosing fecundity effects, and successive ratios of adult counts were the most effective for diagnosing survival effects. Fish relative abundance was the most effective independent variable, with other choices (e.g., fishery catch) often resulting in misleading inferences. We argue that Bayes factors are best suited for characterizing the relationship between fish abundance and Steller sea lion vital rates and that existing evidence does not preclude a strong relationship between sea lion fecundity and the availability of commercially harvested fish stocks.

Linking Reproduction and Survival Can Improve Model Estimates of Vital Rates Derived from Limited Time-Series Counts of Pinnipeds and Other Species

We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))—and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

The status of grey seals in Britain

Grey seal pup production in Scotland was estimated through annual aerial surveys of the main grey seal breeding colonies. Between 3 and 7 counts of pups were obtained for each colony at intervals through the course of the breeding season. Pup production for individual colonies was estimated from the series of counts using a maximum likelihood model. At 3 colonies, 2 in England, annual pup production was estimated using ground counts. Between the early 1960s and the early 1990s, grey seal pup production progressively increased. At colonies in the Inner and Outer Hebrides, production appeared to stabilize during the 1990s and has remained so. Pup production at colonies in Orkney and in the North Sea has continued to increase but in recent years the rate of increase has declined. This may imply that the UK grey seal population is reaching some limit to its size. The observed changes in pup production imply that some density dependent factors are affecting the British grey seal population. Changes in either juvenile survival and/or female fecundity are the most likely options. Without knowing which of these, or what combination of these factors, is operating, estimating total population size is complicated.

Methods for estimating spatial trends in Steller sea lion pup production using the Kalman filter

Many species exhibit spatially varying trends in population size and status, often driven by differences among factors affecting individual subpopulations. Estimation and differentiation of such trends may be important for management, and a driving force for monitoring programs. The ability to estimate spatial differences in population trend may depend on assumptions regarding connectivity among subpopulations (stock structure or spatial overlap in stressors), information that is often poorly known. Linear state-space models using the Kalman filter were developed, tested, and applied for trend estimation of pup production for the western Alaska stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), given only count data. Models were able to estimate trends and abundance even when data were missing. Models that assumed spatial correlation in trend among rookeries were more robust to stock structure assumptions when the stock structure was potentially mis-specified. High levels of spatial correlation among rookeries estimated from Steller sea lion pup count data are consistent with large-scale covariance of population trend within the Steller sea lion metapopulation.

Pup numbers of the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) at The Pages Islands, South Australia, over two decades

The Australian sea lion is an Australian endemic, restricted to South Australia and Western Australia, with 86% of the population in South Australia. It was listed under the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act as Vulnerable in February 2005, and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature has listed it as Endangered. Sea lions are taken as bycatch in the gill-net fishery for school shark and gummy shark, and the risk of extinction of breeding colonies is high even from low levels of bycatch. We assessed trends in pup population size at The Pages Islands, a large breeding colony in South Australia. Pup abundance was estimated by direct counting of live and dead pups; the maximum count in each breeding season was used for trend analysis. The average of direct counts of pups in 14 breeding seasons between 1989–90 and 2009–10 was 473 (s.d. = 58.4). There was no trend in pup numbers, contrasting with two other large colonies: Seal Bay, Kangaroo Island (decreasing), and Dangerous Reef (increasing since 2000). The Australian Sea Lion Management Strategy of the Australian Fisheries Management Authority aims to reduce sea lion bycatch in the shark fishery; a key item is a fishery closure around each breeding colony in South Australia. Implementation of the closure around The Pages should lower the risk of bycatch of its sea lions with foraging areas that previously overlapped with the fishery and should allow the colony’s population size to increase.

Spatio‐temporal shifts of the dynamic Cape fur seal population in southern Africa, based on aerial censuses (1972–2009)

AbstractA time series of aerial censuses of Cape fur seal colonies, spanning four decades (1972–2009) and three countries (South Africa, Namibia, and Angola), was analyzed to assess spatio‐temporal changes in population numbers. A weighted quantile regression approach was used to estimate trends in pup counts that were used as proxies for numbers of older animals at breeding colonies. There was a 74% increase in the number of breeding colonies over the study period, from 23 in 1973 to 40 in 2009. There was also a significant northward shift in the distribution of the breeding population. This was largely attributable to events in the northern part of the population's range coinciding with Namibia, where seal numbers declined at most colonies in the south of Namibia while several new breeding colonies developed in the northern part of Namibia and one in southern Angola. Despite range expansion and the development of new colonies, the overall size of the population in 2009 was similar to that of the early 1990s, according to the pup count models. Potential mechanisms for the observed changes, and their management implications, are discussed.

Response of common seals (Phoca vitulina) to human disturbances in the Dollard estuary of the Wadden Sea

The Dollard area is a core breeding area of common seals, Phoca vitulina, in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Seals mainly use this area in the birth season, and it is at this time that mother and pup pairs are prone to disturbance. Seals in the Dollard lie on sandbanks close to the dyke area which exposes them to various human activities on land and in the coastal waters.The colony of common seals on the sandbanks of the Dollard has increased from 77 individuals in 1993 to 332 in 2010. Observations were made during the pupping and lactation seasons in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. In total, 692h of observations were made over the last 4 years, and a total of 1329 potential disturbances were recorded. Human activities were more frequent on land than on water or in the air. In total, most disturbances were also recorded as arising from land. Actual disturbances of seals were recorded 344 times; seals were alerted 249 times and seals escaped into the water 95 times. An escape response was observed for 81 of the 1037 (7.8%) recorded land activities, 6 of the 92 (6.5%) recorded water activities, and 8 of the 200 (4%) air activities. These percentages of escape responses did not differ significantly between the land, water and air activities.The construction of a culvert in the dyke in 2001, and the building up of sand ridges along the water flow towards the culvert, provided the seals with an extra place to haul out. Land activities only affected seals resting on these sand ridges which are at a distance of 50–200m of the dyke. Boats have the potential to disturb seals on all sandbanks of the study area. They affected the highest number of seals per disturbance, with up to 117 animals fleeing into the water. Flying at lower altitudes appeared to cause more disturbances of seals. Therefore, the effect of flying at low altitudes (150–300m) warrants further investigation.Disturbances which lead to fleeing into the water create the potential risk of separating pups from their mothers. This may contribute to the high incidence of orphaned pups found in the Dollard region. Yearly numbers fluctuated between 13 and 24 orphans representing a substantial proportion of the seals born in this area (with highest pup counts of ca. 100). In addition to separation, disturbances may also impact the condition of pups if they occur repeatedly during suckling.The results of this study demonstrate that disturbance is caused by various human activities to a colony of seals using sandbanks close to the mainland. As these disturbances pose a risk that pups become orphaned or are impacted in terms of their body condition, efforts should be made to minimise the effects of human presence.

Estimating pup production in a mammal with an extended and aseasonal breeding season, the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea)

Context The Australian sea lion population at Seal Bay Conservation Park, South Australia, was estimated to be declining at a rate of 1.14% per breeding season, on the basis of maximum counts of live pups in each of 13 breeding seasons (Shaughnessy et al. 2006). The reliability of the pup-production estimates used to identify this decline is uncertain. Aims Our aims were to obtain representative and repeatable estimates of pup production and to assess the current rate of decline. Methods We compared four estimates of pup abundance over five breeding seasons (2002–03, 2004, 2005–06, 2007, 2008–09), including the count of cumulative new births, the maximum live-pup count, the number of pups given passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and mark–recapture methods using the Petersen estimate. Key results A total of 90% of pup births occurred over a mean of 124 days (s.d. = 14). Final estimates of pup production (from the largest of the four estimation methods used) in the five seasons were 227 (CL 221–239), 288 (CL 273–302), 219 (NA), 260 (CL 254–272) and 268 (CL 268–269). The average estimate of pup mortality was 28.6% (s.d. = 6.3%). The decline in the population at Seal Bay over 17 breeding seasons on the basis of maximum counts of live pups was 0.51% per year or 0.76% per breeding season. However, this trend was not based on best estimates of pup production. On the basis of final estimates for the last five breeding seasons, there is no declining trend. Conclusions The count of cumulative new births was the most reliable measure of pup production; the Petersen mark–recapture estimate provided a check for accuracy and confidence limits about the estimate. Implications The actual rate of change and the expected trajectory of the Seal Bay population remain uncertain. Ongoing monitoring is a priority for this site, using the reliable methods of estimating pup production identified in the present study.

Causes of mortality in South American fur seal pups (Arctophoca australis gracilis) at Guafo Island, southern Chile (2004–2008)

AbstractAs part of population dynamics studies of the South American fur seal (Arctophoca australis gracilis) rookery at Punta Weather in Guafo Island (43°36'S, 74°43’W), the causes and extent of pup mortality were monitored. During four breeding seasons, daily counts of live and dead pups were carried out to determine pup production and pup mortality. Dead pups were retrieved from the rookery to perform necropsies. The mean pup production was 1,735.5 ± 336 pups and the mean pup mortality up to 12 wk old was 6.0%± 2.6%. The major causes of death were enteritis with microscopic lesions of bacteremia (28.4%), starvation (23.5%), drowning (21%), trauma (19.8%), and stillbirths (2.5%). Enteritis with microscopic lesions of bacteremia, and starvation had higher incidence during January (beginning and middle of the breeding season) while most trauma and drowning occurred during February (end of the breeding season). In the 2006–2007 breeding season there was an increase in mortality due to starvation and trauma. Most pup deaths at Guafo Island are generated by extrinsic factors; therefore, additional studies that assess the impact of environmental changes and fishing activities, are needed in order to determine the exact causes of the decline of this species along Chilean coasts.

An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts

For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density-dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density-dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. It requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used and produces similar estimates. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.

Earlier pupping in harbour seals, Phoca vitulina

The annual reproductive cycle of most seal species is characterized by a tight synchrony of births. Typically, timing of birth shows little inter-annual variation. Here, however we show that harbour seals Phoca vitulina from the Wadden Sea (southeast North Sea) have shortened their yearly cycle, moving parturition to earlier dates since the early 1970s. Between 1974 and 2009, the birth date of harbour seals shifted on average by -0.71 d yr⁻¹, three and a half weeks (25 days) earlier, in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. Pup counts available for other parts of the Wadden Sea were analysed, showing a similar shift. To elucidate potential mechanism(s) for this shift in pupping phenology, possible changes in population demography, changes in maternal life-history traits and variations in environmental conditions were examined. It was deduced that the most likely mechanism was a shortening of embryonic diapause. We hypothesize that this could have been facilitated by an improved forage base, e.g. increase of small fishes, attributable to overfishing of large predator fishes and size-selective fisheries.