Public Policy Support Research Articles

Policy sequencing can increase public support for ambitious climate policy

Abstract Public support for ambitious climate policies and carbon prices that have direct costs for voters may depend on policy sequencing. Policy sequencing theory suggests that the strategic ordering of policies into sequences that initially create benefits can subsequently increase support for higher carbon prices. However, systematic quantitative evidence about the effects of sequencing on public support is lacking. We provide novel theoretical and empirical insights on the mechanisms through which strategic policy sequencing affects public support for climate policies. We generated these insights using geospatial data and a representative conjoint experiment with Swiss voters conducted just before the popular vote on an amendment to the Federal Act on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in June 2021. Our evidence shows that the perceived effectiveness of prior policy-induced benefits is related to more public support for higher carbon prices across sectors. Moreover, we find that more opportunity structures for low-emission alternatives—like higher EV charging station density—are associated with increased public support for carbon prices in the sector where the former material benefits occur. Our results also imply that positive policy perceptions of prior climate policies are related to increased support, particularly among conservative voters and those who do not regard climate change as a salient issue. Thus, strategic policy sequencing could be an effective strategy for broadening public support for ambitious climate policies.

Exposure to the Death of Others during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Growing Mistrust in Medical Institutions as a Result of Personal Loss.

The prominence of death during the COVID-19 pandemic was heightened by the potential of personally knowing someone who lost their life to the virus. The terror management theory (TMT) suggests that the salient presence of death has a pronounced effect on behavior and may result in the ossification of beliefs and actions aligned with one's worldview (i.e., the mortality salience hypothesis). In this study, we evaluated how death exposure early in the COVID-19 pandemic could enact the process of firming up held beliefs and attitudes related to health and safety. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that exposure to a personal loss during the pandemic would strengthen participants' baseline attitudes and behaviors regarding COVID-19 safety guidelines. Data were analyzed from a prospective, regional survey administered at two time points during the pandemic, June-July 2020 and May 2021, in five United States northeastern states. Baseline and follow-up surveys were administered approximately 12 months apart, with adherence to public guidance and death exposure measured at both timepoints and other safety measures at follow-up only. Our results indicated that there were significant main effects of death exposure on guideline adherence and support for COVID-related public policy. Contrary to the mortality salience hypothesis, death exposures after baseline were related to higher medical mistrust at follow-up for those high in adherence at baseline, rather than those with low adherence. Our results offer some conflicting evidence to the mortality salience hypothesis. Rather than entrench people in their worldviews, death in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic appeared to sway people away from their initial stances. This finding has important implications for TMT literature and for the COVID-19 pandemic response.

Do “Amor duro” à “Briga de rua”: a batalha de Garret Hardin e Cordelia S. May pelo controle populacional e a eugenia na virada do milênio

ABSTRACT This essay draws on epistolary documentation, conference proceedings, and U.S. government reports to analyze the correspondence of right-wing “conservative” activists Garrett Hardin and Cordelia S. May, focusing on their obsession with population control and eugenic principles as solutions to the growing ecological disasters of the 1960s through the early 2000s. These individuals engaged in negotiations and made decisions that helped shape public support for draconian population control policies and practices based on eugenics. These sources provide new insights into how a group of influential intellectuals, financiers, and self-proclaimed environmentalists worked to build a white, elite, heteronormative, and empowered smart society for the future, despite their inability to keep population control on the national agenda.

A case for public support for vulnerability disclosure policies

This paper makes a case for public administrations to give fiscal incentives to companies that have internal processes in place to manage vulnerabilities in their digital environments. It presents an exploration of the importance of implementing a vulnerability disclosure policy (VDP) and the potential benefits of government fiscal contributions to companies adopting such policies. It emphasises the significance of fostering a culture of transparency, collaboration and enhanced cyber security through responsible vulnerability disclosure practices. By incentivising organisations to adopt a VDP, governments will strengthen threat detection and response capabilities, foster public-private partnerships, promote national and international cyber resilience and ultimately achieve economic and societal benefits. By providing financial support, governments could transform cyber security departments from cost centres to profit centres that would attract the interest of the management and turn in more resource allocation. In some cases, governments use legislation to push top-down the adoption of VDPs. This approach is normally adopted for sectors that are considered critical for the society, but it seems impractical to replicate for all business and organisations that are not critical simply because the government would not have the resources to enforce such a measure. Thousands of companies and organisations that are not critical could still benefit from adopting a VDP, making society as a whole more resilient. This paper argues that the right approach towards VDP consists in combining the ‘stick’ of legislative obligations with the ‘carrot’ of fiscal and financial support to companies and organisations to generate a large-scale bottom-up support for VDP adoption. Fiscal or financial support from public institutions to private organisations that have procedures in place to manage vulnerabilities could be a game changer and transform cyber security departments into profit centres able to attract more private resources internal to the company. Another element that could help wider adoption of VDP would be a legal shield for both companies that adopt a VDP and cyber security researchers that report vulnerabilities through this system. To strengthen the resilience of a digital society, it is important that laws on computer crime distinguish between someone that hacks into a computer system with malicious intent and someone that does it to identify weaknesses and report them to the owner of the system. Cyber security researchers that act in good faith provide an invaluable positive contribution to cyber security and must not feel discouraged or intimidated by legislations or prosecutors.

Population-level effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in Montréal (Canada): a modelling study of surveillance and survey data.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been recommended and partly subsidized in Québec, Canada, since 2013. We evaluated the population-level impact of PrEP on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Montréal, Québec's largest city, over 2013-2021. We used an agent-based mathematical model of sexual HIV transmission to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions averted by PrEP compared to a counterfactual scenario without PrEP. The model was calibrated to local MSM survey, surveillance, and cohort data and accounted for COVID-19 pandemic impacts on sexual activity, HIV prevention, and care. PrEP was modelled from 2013 onwards, assuming 86% individual-level effectiveness. The PrEP eligibility criteria were: any anal sex unprotected by condoms (past 6 months) and either multiple partnerships (past 6 months) or multiple uses of post-exposure prophylaxis (lifetime). To assess potential optimization strategies, we modelled hypothetical scenarios prioritizing PrEP to MSM with high sexual activity (≥11 anal sex partners annually) or aged ⩽45 years, increasing coverage to levels achieved in Vancouver, Canada (where PrEP is free-of-charge), and improving retention. Over 2013-2021, the estimated annual HIV incidence decreased from 0.4 (90% credible interval [CrI]: 0.3-0.6) to 0.2 (90% CrI: 0.1-0.2) per 100 person-years. PrEP coverage among HIV-negative MSM remained low until 2015 (<1%). Afterwards, coverage increased to a maximum of 10% of all HIV-negative MSM, or about 16% of the 62% PrEP-eligible HIV-negative MSM in 2020. Over 2015-2021, PrEP averted an estimated 20% (90% CrI: 11%-30%) of cumulative HIV acquisitions. The hypothetical scenarios modelled showed that, at the same coverage level, prioritizing PrEP to high sexual activity MSM could have averted 30% (90% CrI: 19%-42%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015-2021. Even larger impacts could have resulted from higher coverage. Under the provincial eligibility criteria, reaching 10% coverage among HIV-negative MSM in 2015 and 30% in 2019, like attained in Vancouver, could have averted up to 63% (90% CrI: 54%-70%) of HIV acquisitions from 2015 to 2021. PrEP reduced population-level HIV transmission among Montréal MSM. However, our study suggests missed prevention opportunities and adds support for public policies that reduce PrEP barriers, financial or otherwise, to MSM at risk of HIV acquisition.

Cultural worldviews and support for governmental management of COVID-19

This article addresses public attitudes towards government measures to contain preventable diseases in China in light of personal privacy and social safety controversies. Using a nationwide Internet survey of 776 Chinese adults and an online worldview database, we seek to explain the reason for causing differing public opinions on prevention policies and related governance issues. As Cultural Theory suggests, cultural biases impact public attitudes toward social policies. However, to our knowledge, culture theory has rarely been used to explain public differences in policies in China. So, study 1 conducted an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and found that the four-factor model of cultural worldviews: egalitarianism, hierarchy, individualism, and fatalism is still a feasible assessment tool for worldviews. Then, in studies 2–4, we explored how cultural worldviews influence Chinese public policy support. Study 2 involved an online worldview database and found that by trusting the government, hierarchists trust the policies proposed by the government. Study 3 and Study 4, based on the revised cultural scale in Study 1 and surveys during the epidemic period, found that compared to hierarchists and egalitarians, fatalists and individualists were less likely to support COVID-19 responses. In study 3, we further found that along with the risk perception levels growing, fatalists’ resistance towards epidemic prevention policies will disappear under high-risk perception conditions. Study 4 also found that hierarchists and egalitarians with higher trust in government tend to support COVID-19 responses. Hierarchists will be more supportive of the government with the increased public’s perceived threats. In conclusion, cultural worldviews have different impacts on policy support, and the relationship between cultural worldviews and policy support is influenced by public attitudes toward authorities and the perceived threats they face. Lastly, risk management and communication implications are discussed, such as establishing trust between individuals and authorities.

Improving the consumer welfare of rural residents through public support policies: A study on old revolutionary areas in China

Improvement of the welfare of rural residents of less developed areas is one of the key United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This study uses the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2020 and a difference-in-differences model to evaluate the impact of the Old Revolutionary Development Program (ORDP) of China on the consumer welfare of rural residents. Results indicate that the implementation of the ORDP plays a significant role in improving the consumer welfare of the rural residents of old revolutionary base areas in China. Specifically, the ORDP implementation can improve the consumer welfare of the rural residents by increasing the local fiscal expenditure and narrowing the income gap between the urban and rural areas. In addition, the intervention of the ORDP has a heterogeneous effect on the consumer welfare of the rural residents of different regions, and the effect is larger in regions with high fiscal expenditure, satisfactory economic development, high urbanization, and small urban–rural income gap. The findings can enrich the theoretical basis of regional development planning with Chinese characteristics and provide a new reference for the policy practice of the sustainable development of residents in underdeveloped areas.

How to win public support for financial climate policies: both climate anxiety and economic anticipation work

ABSTRACT Considering the dual objectives of financial climate policies (such as carbon tax) -mitigating climate change and supporting economic growth, our paper aims to discover the unique process of increasing support for financial climate policies, which was a lack of attention before. Building on the structural equation modelling analysis of a nationwide longitudinal survey including 2322 valid samples in China, this research finds the positive influence of climate anxiety and economic anticipation on the support for financial climate policies, driven by the enhancement of perceived win-win benefits of policies. The findings provide researchers with a new perspective in understanding public support for financial climate policies and the psychological process underneath. Policy-makers could benefit from the findings by strategically managing the climate anxiety and economic anticipation of the public and raising public awareness of personal benefits beyond climate benefits when implementing financial climate policies.

Depictions of Firearm Violence Perpetrators and Support for Firearm Policies: An Experimental Survey Analysis of Mental Illness and Criminal Background

We used an experimental study design with newspaper vignettes to examine how characteristics of gun violence perpetrators including mental illness and previous incarceration influence three categories of firearm policy support in a national sample of U.S. adults ( N = 3,387). Depictions of mass shootings elicit greater support for firearm policies than other types such as suicides, accidents, or street-level homicides. Further, depictions of mental illness and previous incarceration increase support for policies regulating who may legally own, purchase, and possess firearms. Demographic characteristics of perpetrators such as gender and race largely do not affect public policy support, although personal characteristics of respondents themselves are predictive of support.

Agroecological transitions during COVID-19: evidence from Kerala, India

ABSTRACT To emerge as a dominant socio-technological regime, agroecological transitions require supportive public policies and collective agroecological actions, with refinement in scientific/technological practices, cultures, markets, and user preferences. Using a multi-level perspective approach, this study inquires why the proper positioning of these determinants is substantial in transforming niche innovations in agroecology into a dominant regime by replacing vicious cycles associated with enriching agribusiness with virtuous cycles that support regional ecologies and communities. The models of agroecological transition during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods in Kerala and how the political agroecological position during the latter period succeeded in enabling a transition were examined. Owing to the landscape turbulence caused by COVID-19, the Government of Kerala triggered the de/realignment of determinants toward agroecological transition through programs, strategies, and nudges using a bottom-up approach under the “Subhiksha Keralam” (Self Sufficient Kerala) project. At the agroecosystem level, Characteristics of Agroecological Transition was used to quantify the magnitude of transition, the results demonstrating an improvement in farms during the COVID-19 period. The majority of homestead farms were characterized as agroecological, either in transition or advanced. Agroecological transition became possible because the government systematically targeted user preferences and societal values, along with modifying policy and technology, through nudges, thereby preventing possible lock-ins.

Extreme heat experience influences public support for local climate adaptation policies in Germany

Extreme heat events, made more frequent and severe by climate change, are negatively impacting human populations across the world. Understanding how populations are being impacted, especially among the most vulnerable, is therefore a policy imperative. We contribute to this understanding by investigating experiences of Germans following the summer of 2022, a season noteworthy for extreme temperatures throughout Europe. We conducted a survey of German residents (n = 2356) and found that a wide majority (85%) reported negative impacts from heat, including difficulty falling asleep, discomfort, and decreased productivity. These impacts occurred more frequently for vulnerable groups, such as the financially insecure. Furthermore, we found that living in areas with more frequent high temperature days (i.e., objective heat experience) corresponded to higher reported impacts from heat. We then identified factors influencing support for local governmental policies related to heat adaptation. We found broad support among those who reported higher levels of heat impacts, with support for some policies, such as subsidizing residential air conditioning, associated with higher objective heat experience. Our research reinforces the urgent need for comprehensive policies that protect Germans from heat, with a focus on the most vulnerable, as heat impacts are projected to only worsen under future warming.

Undermining support for COVID-19 public health policies: an analysis of the impact of subversive conspiracy narratives on Czech General Practitioners.

Limited knowledge exists regarding the impact of COVID-19 conspiracy theories on the professional practice of general practitioners (GPs). This study aimed to identify the basic characteristics of GPs who endorse COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and compare their level of support for COVID-19 health policies with GPs who do not believe in conspiracies. Between January and February 2021, a representative online survey was conducted among 1163 GPs in the Czech Republic. The sample was designed to be representative of members of The Association of GPs of the Czech Republic. The survey revealed that nearly 14% of the GPs surveyed believed in one or more COVID-19 conspiracies. The average age of GPs who endorsed conspiracies was 58, which was higher than the rest of the sample (average age of 50). GPs who believed in conspiracies were less likely to support COVID-19 public health policies and therapy recommendations, including vaccination. Logistic and linear regression analyses indicated that doctors who believed in conspiracies were 2.62 times less likely to have received a COVID-19 vaccine. Mediation analysis showed that approximately one-quarter (23.21%) of the total effect of trust in government information on support for public health policies was indirectly mediated by the endorsement of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs. The study findings suggest a concerning association between belief in COVID-19 conspiracies and a reduced level of support for public health policies among GPs. These results underscore the importance of incorporating the 'conspiracy agenda' into medical authorities' more effective public health communication strategies.

Fuelling the climate and science 'denial machine' on social media: A case study of the Great Barrier Reef's 2021 'in danger' recommendation on Twitter, YouTube and Facebook.

Australian climate policy has been stifled by a network of free-market and extractive industry-advocating actors, yet there is little empirical evidence to show how these actors and information flows behave in online communication spaces during Australian environmental conflicts. Focusing on the UNESCO 2021 'in danger' recommendation for the Great Barrier Reef for 6 weeks, this mixed-methods study of Twitter, Facebook and YouTube uses social network analysis, including cluster analysis and in-depth close reading. We find that a small, yet significant, mix of ideologically aligned partisan actors are fuelling the 'denial machine' in Australia by co-opting a scientific report's findings to argue that the Great Barrier Reef has recovered, and to contest the need for climate action. This article offers insights into the central actors and tactics that could erode public support for Australian climate policy, with similarities to strategies already established in the United States. It also contributes to furthering multi-platform analyses.

Public support for decarbonization policies in the UK: exploring regional variations and policy instruments

ABSTRACT Decarbonization policies require public support to be implemented and to remain in legislation. Examinations of public support for climate policies tend to focus on a small number of policy instruments and/or use hypothetical instead of real policy proposals. Here, we address these criticisms by examining public support across four distinct policy instruments – command-and-control, market-based, information-based, and voluntary – using sixteen policy proposals by UK political parties and government institutions. In addition to assessing UK national policy support, we also explore regional differences. Using a representative sample of the UK population (N = 1,911), we find that, at a national level, individuals preferred instruments shown to be less effective in reaching net-zero: information-based and voluntary policies. Our results indicate that the extent to which individuals believe in the free market, their environmental worldviews and political party support as well as their age are all correlated with policy support. We find stark regional differences where, compared to individuals living in Greater London, those living in the remainder of the country were 32% and 30% less likely to support command-and-control and market-based policies, respectively (among other regional differences). Regional variations in free-market beliefs and population density partly explain differences in policy support. We propose policymakers focus on place-based initiatives to increase support for decarbonization policies that are more effective in reaching net-zero and on improving the perception of market-based and command-and-control policies through positive framing and policy bundles.

Analysing public debates, to support productive engagement with politicians and stakeholders

Abstract Issue UK public health debates have become highly politicised. Sean Sinclair (SCS) conducted 37 semi-structured interviews with public health professionals to understand how this affects their engagement with stakeholders. Interviewees said it has become more difficult to gain stakeholder support for public health policies. They hypothesised that politicians didn’t listen to evidence regarding health outcomes. SCS counter-hypothesised that debates are not always about facts, but sometimes about values. If a politician's main concern is, say, economic growth or personal responsibility, then evidence of health outcomes will not address their concerns. Solution To understand people's values, SCS analysed UK public debates about four contentious issues: vaccine passports; lockdown; healthy living advice; and Prep (the HIV prophylactic). SCS used the techniques of argument analysis used in analytic philosophy, ensuring the structure of arguments was transparent, and so amenable to assessment. Results From the analysis, SCS developed a conceptual toolkit to allow public health professionals to analyse what motivates politicians from different points on the political spectrum. They can then tailor their evidence to show how a policy will deliver on a politician's concerns, or tweak the policy to mitigate the features that trigger scepticism. To assess the material, SCS presented it to public health professionals in qualitative discussion groups. Feedback indicated that it will help them engage more effectively with stakeholders, eg: ‘Makes me think about what argument might be most impactful, rather than my instinctive response.’ Lessons In any country that is politically divided over public health policy, this method can reveal new ways of arguing for policies, eg by appealing to a politician's own values. SCS has developed the expertise to help develop similar analyses in other countries. Key messages • In any country that is politically divided over public health policy, it can be difficult to gain stakeholder support for policies. Analysing public debates builds understanding of people's concerns. • This method can reveal new ways of arguing for policies. Public health professionals can tailor the evidence they present to show how a policy will deliver on each politician's concerns.

The Role of Media in Addressing Opioid Use Disorder: Examining Causal Attributions and Emotions as Mediators of Media Influence on Stigma and Policy Support

This study examined the influence of media on stigma and public support for policy interventions that address opioid-related problems. Data from a survey of 997 U.S. adults indicate that media exposure to opioids and relevant topics significantly influenced stigma and support for punitive and public health-oriented policies, even after direct and indirect experiences with opioid misuse were controlled for. However, differences emerged in terms of what led people to endorse each type of policy intervention. When people attributed opioid misuse to individual-oriented causes after media exposure, they were more likely to support punitive policies. When people recognized pharmaceutical-oriented causes, they tended to support public health-related policies. In addition to causal attributions, emotions (fear, anger, and sympathy) served as mediators with different effects on stigma and policy support. Although exposure to opioid-related stories positively influenced all three emotions, media influence was most likely to elicit sympathy, which was negatively associated with social stigma. However, people who felt anger tended to stigmatize individuals with opioid use disorder and not to support either of the policy interventions. The overall findings suggest that communication efforts addressing the opioid situation should find frames that reduce social stigma and encourage support for public health-related policies.

Tracking a Decade of Hydrogeological Emergencies in Italian Municipalities

This dataset collects tabular and geographical information about all hydrogeological disasters (landslides and floods) that occurred in Italy from 2013 to 2022 that caused such severe impacts as to require the declaration of national-level emergencies. The severity and spatiotemporal extension of each emergency are characterized in terms of duration and timing, funds requested by local administrations, funds approved by the national government, and municipalities and provinces hit by the event (further subdivided between those included in the emergency and those not, depending on whether relevant impacts were ascertained). Italian exposure to hydrogeological risk is portrayed strikingly: in the covered period, 123 emergencies affected Italy, all regions were struck at least once, and some provinces were struck more than 10 times. Damage declared by local institutions adds up to EUR 11,000,000,000, while national recovery funds add up to EUR 1,000,000,000. The dataset may foster further research on risk assessment, econometric analysis, public policy support, and decision-making implementation. Moreover, it provides systematic evidence helpful in raising awareness about hydrogeological risks affecting Italy.

Electric Vehicle Charging and Car Dependency

We explore whether policies to promote electric vehicles (EVs) impede efforts to reduce vehicle travel. We hypothesize that the presence of EV chargers reduces respondents’ willingness to support (i) the removal of on-street parking to make space for bicycle lanes, and (ii) infill development on surface parking lots. We also hypothesize that the availability of EVs reduces public support for broader vehicle travel reduction policies. Using a randomized survey-based experiment, we find no evidence to support any of these hypotheses.

Do News Frames Really Have Some Influence in the Real World? A Computational Analysis of Cumulative Framing Effects on Emotions and Opinions About Immigration

This study examines how the news framing of immigration influences the public’s feelings toward immigrants and their preference for immigration policy in the United States. Unlike prior experimental research that documents the respondents’ immediate reactions to several hand-crafted news frames, this study provides strong empirical evidence for the association between the respondents’ real-world news exposure and their opinion change over time. Combining a computational media content analysis and a two-wave panel survey, the research demonstrates that while exposure to certain frames in the mainstream media would directly lead to public support for a stricter immigration policy, partisan media tend to affect public opinion indirectly by influencing their feelings toward immigrants in opposite directions.

Public support for food policies in Mexican adults: Findings from the International Food Policy Study, 2017–2021

Deaths attributable to unhealthful eating underscore the need to improve dietary patterns through upstream, policy-led solutions. The approval and successful implementation of food policies is partly determined by their public acceptance. Little is known about public support for food policies in Mexico. We aimed to investigate the level of public support for 30 food policies, grouped into 5 domains, and their associated characteristics among Mexican adults. Data are from the 2017–2021 International Food Policy Study (IFPS), a cross-sectional web-based survey of adults. Differences in public support across years were estimated using linear regression models. The association between demographic characteristics and policy support was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models. The highest mean support was for the subsidies and benefits domain, followed by the labelling and reformulation domain. The level of support varied across years and policy domains. Support was higher in 2019 compared to 2017 and 2018, and subsequently lower in 2020 and 2021 compared to previous years. Older age was associated with greater support across all domains (OR ranged from 0.002 to 0.004, p < 0.01). Female participants and those selfidentifying as indigenous showed greater support for certain policy domains, whereas higher income adequacy was associated with lower support for other policy domains.In Mexico, support for food policies varies across subpopulations. Our findings may serve as a guide to the development and promotion of food policies in Mexico, as well as to improve their feasibility and success.