Public Risk Perception Research Articles

Epidemic risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden driven by authority responses to COVID-19

Understanding public risk perception is an essential step to develop effective measures reducing the spread of disease outbreaks. Here we compare epidemic risk perceptions during two different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we analyzed the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in both countries in two periods characterized by different infection rates: August (N = 4154) and November 2020 (N = 4168). Seven domains of epidemic risk perception were considered: likelihood along with (individual and population) impact, preparedness, and knowledge. The role of the context and period was explored in stratified and formal interaction analyses. In both countries, we found an intensification in epidemic risk perception from August to November 2020. Being male, older and having a higher relative income were associated with a lower perception of the likelihood of epidemics, while excess mortality was marginally related to higher odds. Compared to Sweden, Italy had a higher increase in perception of likelihood and impact, and a concurrent decrease in preparedness and knowledge. The different authority response to the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a different change over time in risk perception. Regional differences in terms of excess mortality only marginally explained differences in risk perception.

Analyzing Risk Communication, Trust, Risk Perception, Negative Emotions, and Behavioral Coping Strategies During the COVID-19 Pandemic in China Using a Structural Equation Model.

ObjectiveRisk communication and the degree of trust are major factors that affect the public's behavioral coping strategies and play an important role in emergency risk management. However, the internal formation mechanism involved in the public's psychological behavior remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association among risk communication, trust, risk perception, negative emotions, and behavioral coping strategies during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and to identify and quantify the factors that influence public behavior.MethodsWe launched an online survey through social media from April to July 2020 in China. Relevant data were elicited using a self-designed questionnaire that mainly examined respondent characteristics, risk communication, trust, risk perception, negative emotions, protective coping behavior, and excessive coping behavior in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 735 valid responses were obtained. A structural equation model was then used to explore relationship pathways among the components.ResultsThe higher the degree of risk communication (β = −0.10, p < 0.05) and trust (β = −0.22, p < 0.001), the lower the public risk perception. Risk communication and trust had a direct effect on public behavioral coping strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher the level of risk communication (β = 0.14, p < 0.001) or trust (β = 0.48, p < 0.001), the more likely it was that this would encourage the public to adopt protective coping behaviors, while the public was less likely to engage in excessive coping behaviors as the degree of trust increased (β = −0.12, p < 0.01). Risk perception influenced by poor risk communication and trust generated negative emotions (β = 0.31, p < 0.001), and such negative emotions further positively influenced public behavioral coping strategies (whether protective [β = 0.09, p < 0.05] or excessive [β = 0.24, p < 0.001] behaviors).ConclusionRisk communication, trust, risk perception, and negative emotions were significantly directly or indirectly related to public behavior. The findings provide useful information for emergency risk management and a theoretical basis for follow-up research on public coping behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Spatiotemporal disparities in regional public risk perception of COVID-19 using Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) series models across Chinese cities

Regional public attention has been critical during the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting the effectiveness of sub-national non-pharmaceutical interventions. While studies have focused on public attention at the national level, sub-national public attention has not been well investigated. Understanding sub-national public attention can aid local governments in designing regional scientific guidelines, especially in large countries with substantial spatiotemporal disparities in the spread of infections. Here, we evaluated the online public attention to the COVID-19 pandemic using internet search data and developed a regional public risk perception index (PRPI) that depicts heterogeneous associations between local pandemic risk and public attention across 366 Chinese cities. We used the Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) model, a full-map local regression for estimating spatiotemporal heterogeneous relationships of variables, and improved it to the Bayesian Spatiotemporally Interacting Varying Coefficients (STIVC) model to incorporate space–time interaction non-stationarity at spatial or temporal stratified scales. COVID-19 daily cases (median contribution 82.6%) was the most critical factor affecting public attention, followed by urban socioeconomic conditions (16.7%) and daily population mobility (0.7%). After adjusting national and provincial impacts, city-level influence factors accounted for 89.4% and 58.6% in spatiotemporal variations of public attention. Spatiotemporal disparities were substantial among cities and provinces, suggesting that observing national-level public dynamics alone was insufficient. Multi-period PRPI maps revealed clusters and outlier cities with potential public panic and low health literacy. Bayesian STVC series models are systematically proposed and provide a multi-level spatiotemporal heterogeneous analytical framework for understanding collective human responses to major public health emergencies and disasters.

The dynamic evolution mechanism of public health risk perception and the choice of policy tools in the post-epidemic era: Evidence from China

ObjectivesRepeated outbreaks of small-intensity epidemics are one of the important features of the post-epidemic era. After a new round of epidemics broke out in Liaoning in mid-May 2021, the Chinese government's vaccination process quickly accelerated, completing nearly 100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccination within 7 days. How is this efficient policy implementation process accomplished? What is the behavioral logic behind it? MethodsThis article constructs an analysis framework of “perception-goal-tool”. Trying to study the individual's micro-psychological mechanism as a starting point, with the help of a Health Belief Model, to explore the dynamic evolution of individual health risk perception before and after the outbreak of a small-intensity epidemic and its impact on vaccination willingness. And on this basis, analyze the flexible governance process of the Chinese government in the post-epidemic period. ResultsThe perceived severity is the core variable that affects the public's willingness to vaccinate. A small-intensity epidemic outbreak will aggravate the impact of the three health belief components on the public's willingness to vaccinate. In the three interactive analyses of health belief components, individuals have the highest willingness to inoculate in situations of low perceived susceptibility, low perception barriers, and high perception severity, and economic policy tools and authoritative policy tools play a key role before and after the outbreak of a small-intensity epidemic. ConclusionIn the context of a small-intensity epidemic, the reason why the Chinese government can achieve rapid crisis management lies in the interaction between policy goals, policy tools, and public risk perception.

Self-reported health behaviors and risk perceptions following the COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the USA: an online survey study

ObjectivesConcerns have been raised that mass vaccination campaigns might lead to reduced engagement with other recommended health behaviors. We assessed self-reported behaviors and risk perceptions following the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the USA. Study designBetween December 2, 2020, and March 23, 2021, we conducted three online survey studies with US adult respondents. MethodsRespondents self-reported their COVID-19 vaccination status, their frequency of engaging in risk-increasing behaviors and wearing a mask when in public places, and their COVID-19 risk perceptions (i.e., perceived likelihood of getting COVID-19 and of being hospitalized if they got COVID-19). ResultsOur analytical sample included 832 respondents who had completed the first and final surveys and had received either 0 or 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. Most respondents were non-Hispanic White (75%), male (77%), and US Veterans (64%), with the median age between 55 and 74 years. Overall, respondents reported frequently wearing masks when in public and rarely engaging in risk-increasing behaviors. Regardless of vaccination status, respondents reported more frequently engaging in risk-increasing behaviors and lower risk perceptions in March 2021 than in December 2020. Mask wearing did not change over the study period, with vaccinated respondents consistently reporting more frequent mask wearing than unvaccinated respondents. ConclusionsTaken together, our findings indicate that the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the USA did not result in the rapid abandonment of protective behaviors or dramatic uptake of risk-increasing behaviors. Additional studies are needed to monitor how mass vaccination might impact public behaviors and risk perceptions as coverage widens.

Global response of conservationists across mass media likely constrained bat persecution due to COVID-19

Most people lack direct experience with wildlife and form their risk perception primarily on information provided by the media. The way the media frames news may substantially shape public risk perception, promoting or discouraging public tolerance towards wildlife. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, bats were suggested as the most plausible reservoir of the virus, and this became a recurrent topic in media reports, potentially strengthening a negative view of this ecologically important group. We investigated how media framed bats and bat-associated diseases before and during the COVID-19 pandemic by assessing the content of 2651 online reports published across 26 countries, to understand how and how quickly worldwide media may have affected the perception of bats. We show that the overabundance of poorly contextualized reports on bat-associated diseases likely increased the persecution towards bats immediately after the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the subsequent interventions of different conservation communication initiatives allowed pro-conservation messages to resonate across the global media, likely stemming an increase in bat persecution. Our results highlight the modus operandi of the global media regarding topical biodiversity issues, which has broad implications for species conservation. Knowing how the media acts is pivotal for anticipating the propagation of (mis)information and negative feelings towards wildlife. Working together with journalists by engaging in dialogue and exchanging experiences should be central in future conservation management.

Awareness of Tobacco-Related Diseases among Adults in Poland: A 2022 Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey.

Warning about the dangers of tobacco use is a key element of tobacco control policy. The COVID-19 pandemic may impact public perception of the health risks of tobacco use. The aim of this study was to assess the level of knowledge of tobacco-related diseases among adults in Poland, as well as to identify sociodemographic factors associated with awareness of tobacco-related diseases. This cross-sectional survey was carried out in March 2022 on a representative nationwide sample of 1090 adults in Poland using the computer-assisted web interview (CAWI) technique. Lung cancer was the most recognized tobacco-related disease (92.7%), followed by COPD (89.7%) and myocardial infarction (84%). Three-quarters of the respondents (76.8%) were aware that smoking causes stroke and 51% were aware that smoking increases the risk for type 2 diabetes. Out of 9 factors analyzed in this study, female gender, an age of 50 years and over, and being a non-smoker were significantly associated with a higher awareness of tobacco-related diseases. This study showed an increase in public awareness of smoking-related diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. While awareness of lung cancer and COPD was very high, there are still significant gaps in the awareness of the non-respiratory effects of tobacco use.

How has public perception of food safety and health risks changed a year after the pandemic and vaccines roll out?

The recent coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has caused unprecedented turmoil and spurred fears that have profoundly changed the public's social and health behaviours, including the perception of food safety risks. One year after the pandemic and the global vaccination campaign, the public perception of food safety and the changes in their hygiene behaviour, health risks concerns, and trust were studied in Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia using a cross-sectional online survey. The results of 538 subjects showed a rise in the frequency of hygiene practices, notably in handwashing. Sixty-four percent of the participants were vaccinated, a proportion made up mainly of the Jordanians and Lebanese. For 66% and 64% of the two population groups, respectively, there were no longer trust concerns about COVID-19 health risks following vaccination, whereas the worries about getting COVID-19 persisted for others. Only 47% of participants trusted eating food prepared by vaccinated food handlers. A great majority of the Tunisians (81%) showed varying degrees of concern about COVID-19 transmission from food and the lowest vaccination rate (33%). The current study demonstrated that the impact of vaccination policy positively affects public perception of food-related risks during the pandemic. On the other hand, 33% of the surveyed Jordanians and Tunisians lost trust in the health authorities' management of the pandemic, and 45% of the Lebanese still don't trust them. Communication strategies on health and food safety with the public still represent a challenge for these and probably other countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Strategies for building and maintaining public trust are crucial to curb persistent fear of food, hence, avoiding potential stigmatization affecting the food economy by promoting health awareness and positive changes in food safety perceptions for safer practices.

Tempting the Fate of the furious: cyber security and autonomous cars

ABSTRACT The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN ECE) has developed new aspects of its WP.29 agreement for harmonising vehicle regulations, focusing on the regulation of vehicle manufacturers’ approaches to ensuring vehicle cyber security by requiring implementation of an approved cyber security management system (CSMS). This paper investigates the background, framework and content of WP.29’s cyber security regulation. We provide an overall description of the processes required to become certified, discuss key gaps, issues and the impacts of implementation on stakeholders, and provide recommendations for manufacturers and the authorities who will oversee the operation. Putting the discussion into a broader theoretical framework on risk certification, we explore to the role of non-academic sources to shape public risk perception and to drive, for better or worse, legislative responses.

Public Interest, Risk, Trust, and Personal Protective Equipment Purchase and Usage: Face Masks Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This analysis considers public interest in COVID-19-related issues as well as individuals’ risk perception and trust in society in their demand for face masks during the pandemic. Through a national survey, we examine demand during both the outbreak and the recovery stage of the pandemic and differentiate demand into purchasing and usage. The examination allows us to observe the evolvement of demand over time and stockpiling. We find that public interest and risk perception had a more significant association with mask demand during the outbreak stage, and trust was more connected with mask demand during the recovery stage. While stocking was evident in both stages, consumers were much less price sensitive in the outbreak stage. Overall, the relationship between most factors and mask demand was smaller in the recovery stage. Our research is useful for policymakers to assess the creation and termination of temporary legislation to help manage the value chain of personal protective equipment during a major public health crisis.

Analyzing Russian Media Policy on Promoting Vaccination and Other COVID-19 Risk Mitigation Measures.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in many tangible and intangible losses. To manage the risk of the pandemic and to mitigate its further spread, governments of many countries applied various pandemic risk mitigation measures. Media campaigns played a particularly large role during the pandemic, too. In addition, social media grew in importance because of the spread of technologies and as a result of the increased attention to information about COVID-19. Media information strongly influenced both the public perception of COVID-19 risk and decision-making processes and choices, which people made regarding risk reduction measures during the pandemic. Moreover, media information has had a major impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of various countries' risk management actions. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to investigate the influence of the Russian media on the population's perception of risk, and to address the question about which linguistic and psychological methods they used to shape different media discourses about the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, we analyzed media discourses as a part of the case study of COVID-19 risk management in the Russian Federation. The theoretical basis of the study includes mass communication theories. The methodological basis consists of linguo-cognitive analysis of empirical materials for specific political-philosophical, linguistic-publicistic, and sociopsychological functioning.

An Effective Strategy and Mathematical Model to Predict the Sustainable Evolution of the Impact of the Pandemic Lockdown.

There have been considerable losses in terms of human and economic resources due to the current coronavirus pandemic. This work, which contributes to the prevention and control of COVID-19, proposes a novel modified epidemiological model that predicts the epidemic’s evolution over time in India. A mathematical model was proposed to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in India during the lockdowns implemented by the government of India during the first and second waves. What makes this study unique, however, is that it develops a conceptual model with time-dependent characteristics, which is peculiar to India’s diverse and homogeneous societies. The results demonstrate that governmental control policies and suitable public perception of risk in terms of social distancing and public health safety measures are required to control the spread of COVID-19 in India. The results also show that India’s two strict consecutive lockdowns (21 days and 19 days, respectively) successfully helped delay the spread of the disease, buying time to pump up healthcare capacities and management skills during the first wave of COVID-19 in India. In addition, the second wave’s severe lockdown put a lot of pressure on the sustainability of many Indian cities. Therefore, the data show that timely implementation of government control laws combined with a high risk perception among the Indian population will help to ensure sustainability. The proposed model is an effective strategy for constructing healthy cities and sustainable societies in India, which will help prevent such a crisis in the future.

Public risk perception and behaviours towards COVID-19 during the first and second waves in Nigeria: a secondary data analysis

ObjectivesTo describe changes in public risk perception and risky behaviours during the first wave (W1) and second wave (W2) of COVID-19 in Nigeria, associated factors and observed trend of the...

Crisis communication amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco

The coronavirus pandemic has posed critical and unprecedented challenges to the well-being of people across the globe, threatening human health, social stability and economic prospects. The crisis has mobilized stakeholders from different departments to empower citizens and help them understand the situation, restore control, minimize risks and enhance resilience. As a result, all parties such as healthcare providers, policy-makers, public authorities and NGOs have been struggling to develop effective messaging and communication approaches in order to provide the public with information about what they can do and how they can help themselves. Communication is a vital arm when a crisis hits; it helps the audience perceive and respond to risk messages in a rational and critical way. This article examines the role of crisis communication (CC) amid coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Morocco. It aims at understanding citizens’ different perceptions and opinions about the communication approach incorporated during the crisis. A survey questionnaire was conducted with a total sample of 250 participants. The questionnaire was used to investigate the extent to which communication has helped citizens understand the crisis situation and effectively respond to its challenges. The findings highlight that Moroccans hold positive attitudes towards the communication approach adopted during the COVID-19 emergency; they acknowledge the importance and efficiency of the communicated information in shaping public perception of risk and enhancing resilience, prevention and mitigation. Thus, this article proves the assumption that CC, using different platforms and resources, can play a life-saving role in increasing understanding and enhancing risk control and disease management.

Risk perception associated with an emerging agri-food risk in Europe: plant viruses in agriculture

BackgroundResearch into public risk perceptions associated with emerging risks in agriculture and supply chains has focused on technological risks, zoonotic diseases, and food integrity, but infrequently on naturally occurring diseases in plants. Plant virus infections account for global economic losses estimated at $30 billion annually and are responsible for nearly 50% of plant diseases worldwide, threatening global food security. This research aimed to understand public perceptions of emerging risks and benefits associated with plant viruses in agriculture in Belgium, Slovenia, Spain, and the UK.MethodsOnline qualitative semi-structured interviews with 80 European consumers were conducted, including 20 participants in each of Belgium, Slovenia, the UK, and Spain. Microsoft Streams was used to transcribe the interview data, and NVivo was utilized to code the transcripts and analyze the data.ResultsThe results indicate that, while study participants were relatively unfamiliar with the plant viruses and their potential impacts, plant viruses evoked perceived risks in a similar way to other emerging risks in the agri-food sector. These included risks to environment and human health, and the economic functioning of the relevant supply chain. Some participants perceived both risks and benefits to be associated with plant viruses. Benefits were perceived to be associated with improved plant resistance to viruses.ConclusionsThe results provide the basis for risk regulation, policy, and communication developments. Risk communication needs to take account of both risk and benefit perceptions, as well as the observation that plant viruses are perceived as an emerging, rather than an established, understood, and controlled risk. Some participants indicated the need for risk–benefit communication strategies to be developed, including information about the impacts of the risks, and associated mitigation strategies. Participants perceived that responsibility for control of plant viruses should be conferred on actors within the supply chain, in particular primary producers, although policy support (for example, financial incentivization) should be provided to improve their motivation to instigate risk mitigation activities.

Public awareness and perceptions of drought: A case study of two cities of Alabama

AbstractDrought poses serious risks to society. There is, however, a lack of timely public awareness and sufficient public risk perceptions of this hazard due to its gradual onset. Timely and adequate public response is conducive to effective mitigation. It is imperative to understand how the public responds to drought. Using data from multiple sources, situated in two cities (Mobile and Huntsville) of Alabama, our study represents a comprehensive effort to understand public awareness and perceptions of drought. We have made several important findings. First, both physical and social contexts can influence public awareness of drought. Mobile is prone to a variety of coastal hazards and displays high social vulnerability. Residents in this city are thus more sensitive to environmental shocks, especially less frequent ones such as drought. Second, public awareness of drought is not constrained within the immediate drought impact area. Governmental declaration or regulation can bring the issue of drought from one area to the attention of the other area within one state. Third, public perceptions of drought numbers are negatively correlated with perceptions of precipitation but positively associated with perceptions of extreme heat. This finding reflects that the public perception of drought is in line with scientific understanding of drought. Drought is by definition persistent deficit of precipitation. Flash droughts can be triggered by heat waves which are more likely to occur during a drought. We end this study with recommendations for future studies.

Air Pollution Control and Public Health Risk Perception: Evidence from the Perspectives of Signal and Implementation Effects.

The main purposes of government environmental policy include improving the objective natural environment as well as reducing the health risk of the public. A majority of studies have tested the means of achieving the first goal. In this paper, we aimed to gather empirical evidence pertaining to the realization of the second goal by drawing on a quasi-natural experiment that was conducted based on the “Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control” issued in 2013 (AP2013). The research data came from the tracking data of 17,766 individuals from 112 prefecture-level cities of China in 2012 and 2014. Through ordinal logistic regression and DID analysis, a causal relationship between the AP2013 policy and public health risk perceptions was verified, indicating that this policy can significantly decrease public health risk perceptions. By constructing different subsamples, an inverted U-shaped relationship between the causal effect and the length of the policy implementation window was established, which demonstrated the short-term signal effect and long-term implementation effect of this policy. The conclusions can help with the communication and implementation of a government’s policy.

Climate change impacts on infrastructure: Flood risk perceptions and evaluations of water systems in coastal urban areas

The importance of public perceptions and their role in climate change adaptation for infrastructure has been highlighted in previous studies. However, public perception of water infrastructure at risk of flooding has not been explicitly addressed. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate flood risk perception, the factors that influence it, and evaluations of water infrastructure systems. To examine this, data were obtained from a public survey of 755 respondents in Miami-Dade County, Florida, United States. Risk perception is measured as three components: worry, awareness, and preparedness. Structural equation modeling was used to develop and test a model tracing the interrelationships between risk perception, disaster experience, satisfaction with infrastructure services, knowledge of water infrastructure, socioeconomic characteristics, and political views. Results show that flood risk perception elements (awareness, worry, preparedness) significantly influence public evaluation of water infrastructure conditions and mediate the impact of flood experience, service satisfaction, and knowledge. Evaluation of water infrastructure is positively associated with knowledge and service satisfaction but negatively with flood experience. The study also confirms the importance of socio-economic characteristics in shaping public risk perception and evaluation of infrastructure. These findings imply multiple ways that decision-makers may enhance flood risk management plans and adaptation processes of water infrastructure systems in coastal urban areas.

Panic, Psycho-Behavioral Responses, and Risk Perception in the Earliest Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic in China.

BackgroundCoronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19), a rising global pandemic, has triggered psychological crises among the public. Panic, a severe symptom of mental disorders, is increasing in the public in China and it is urgent to provide research for intervention development.ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess the prevalence of public panic in China during the earliest stage of the COVID-19 pandemic and to explore the associated psychological behavioral responses and public's risk perception of the pandemic.MethodsA cross-sectional study using a web-based survey with convenience sampling was conducted with 2,484 participants nationally from February 11 to February 24, 2020 in China. A self-developed questionnaire was applied to assess the prevalence of public panic and its associated factors. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to assess the risk and protective factors of public panic.ResultsThere were 23.39% (581/2,484) of the participants who reported experiencing panic during the earliest stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Taking temperature repeatedly, being nervous in a crowd, being suspicious of infection in the family, being worried about the future, and worries about high infectivity of the COVID-19, lack of effective therapies, and wide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic increased the odds of public panic. Whereas, avoiding gatherings during holidays was negatively associated with the odds of public panic.ConclusionsPsycho-behavioral responses were closely associated with public panic during the earliest stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Defusing excessive health-related worries, the guidance of appropriate self-protective behaviors, strengthening of health education in communities, and available treatment for mental disorders should be adopted to monitor the psychological responses and to guide the behaviors of the public.

Examining the relationship between media representations of typhoon-related issues and public risk perception

Japan is prone to typhoons and has accumulated a wide range of knowledge about preparing for typhoon disasters. With the development of the Internet, risk information associated with typhoon disasters has increased in online sites. In the pre-emergency phase, media coverage serves as an important guideline for individual disaster mitigation actions. However, depending on which aspects of risk are portrayed in media, attention may be focused only on a few specific risky areas or events. When people do not perceive risk correctly, the risk message can be misleading for mitigation actions. This study conducted a quantitative content analysis to examine how the risk of typhoons was understood by users through online news stories concerning Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 during the pre-emergency phase. Our results found that perception of typhoon risk was distorted by previous typhoon disaster coverage. Additionally, disinformation that could cause confusion in disaster prevention behaviors, was spread on online message boards. Bulletin boards have the potential to inform many people of social norms that encourage them to be well prepared for typhoons. According to the content analysis of online comments, online users indicated that mandatory orders from the government provide the only excuse for missing work during a crisis. Risk managers should monitor the spread of inaccurate information about disaster prevention activities and convince companies to conduct pre-disaster preparedness planning with employees. Clear presentation of social norms on disaster prevention make it easier for people to take disaster prevention actions.