Public Opinion Research Articles

Media Trial: Balancing Press Freedom and the Right to a Fair Trial

This article, titled "Media Trial: Balancing Press Freedom and the Right to a Fair Trial," explores the complications arising from media trials, where intense and often exaggerated media coverage can influence public opinion and alter legal results. While the media plays a crucial role as the "fourth estate" in fostering transparency and accountability, its involvement in judicial matters risks compromising the fairness of trials. The article explores how media trials can violate or uphold the right to a fair trial by referring to significant cases such as the O.J. Simpson trial and the Jessica Lal case respectively. It delves into the legal and moral dilemmas, the influence of social media, and the necessity of finding a balance between press freedoms and the integrity of the judicial process. The discussion underscores the significance of ethical journalism and legal protections to safeguard both public interest and the integrity of the justice system. Ultimately, the article recommends a cautious approach to reconcile these conflicting rights in today's media environment.

Green infrastructure and well-being nexus within slums: a Lagos case

ABSTRACT Green infrastructure includes network of natural systems and environmental features that deliver ecosystem services which improves human well-being. This article reports a study dealing with health-related impacts of green infrastructure within a low-income informal urban setting. The study utilized a quantitative approach through survey data collection from residents in Ajegunle-Ikorodu community in Lagos, Nigeria. The residents’ survey (sample size = 455) was conducted to understand socio-economic and housing characteristics of the residents; green features available; pattern of Park Use. It elicited self-reported health information on physiological well-being and mental health. The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale was used for mental health assessment. Inferential and descriptive statistical analysis was conducted on the data collected. This study shows a generally low presence of Green Infrastructure. Regression analysis (p = 0.033) affirms the positive link between green spaces and mental health. Contrary to popular opinion, the study revealed no correlation between some aspects of self-reported health and green features. The findings highlight the need to develop and maintain green spaces to optimize health benefits. By exploring the connections between greening and well-being in slums, the study contributes to knowledge on human health-nature linkages among low-income urban residents in context of developing countries.

Partisan bias in public perception of elections polls: experimental evidence from Mexico

ABSTRACT While most of the literature on public opinion has explored how motivated reasoning makes some individuals discredit survey results in advanced industrial democracies like the U.S., few studies have considered how voters perceive electoral polling in young democracies like Mexico. This study included a survey experiment that found that voters perceived polls that matched their partisan preferences as more credible. Moreover, voters were requested to provide an estimate of candidates’ vote intention. The results highlight that voters’ partisan bias – not lack of information, prior expectations or low levels of interest – makes them overestimate their co-partisan candidate’s vote intention. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the conditions that make some voters interpret political events through a partisan lens. Voters choose interpretations that rationalize their partisan predispositions even in young democracies, where partisanship is commonly perceived to be weak.

Pope Francis as an influential leader? How papal statements affect public attitudes toward anti-poverty measures

Abstract Pope Francis has been very active in the public debate on several key social and political issues, gaining a role that foregoes the sphere of religiosity and morality. Overall, he has been perceived by the media and the general public as a leftist figure and even a modernizer. Nonetheless, little is known about the influence of Pope Francis' positions on public opinion, especially beyond the climate change issue and outside the US context. In this regard, this paper contributes to the analysis of the Francis effect on public support for poverty alleviation measures. By employing a survey experiment carried out in Italy, we therefore tested whether the papal endorsement of an anti-poverty measure during the COVID-19 pandemic affected people's support for it. The results highlighted a generalized Francis effect among the Italian public. In addition, trust in the Pope and leftist political orientation substantially enhanced this effect, while the same only partially applies to individual religiosity.

Numerical format and public perception of foreign immigration growth rates.

The study aimed to explore whether the 1-in-X bias is also present in relation to immigration growth rates. We tested this research question on a representative sample of adult residents in Trento, Italy, between March and April 2019. Participants were presented with data comparing the foreign immigrant-to-resident population ratio in Italy for 2001 (1 in 40) and 2011 (1 in 15), using two distinct formats-1-in-X and percentages. They were then asked to express the perceived increase. Baseline measures of several individual-level factors, including cultural worldviews, perceptions of immigration, numeracy, science literacy, and economic literacy, were also collected to explore the potential role of individual differences in influencing the effect of the 1-in-X format on the perceived increase in immigrants. The results confirmed the existence of the 1-in-X bias, demonstrating that the immigration growth rate in the 1-in-X format was perceived as higher than in the percentage format, even after controlling for the effects of the idiosyncratic variables. The results of this study provide insight into how different numerical formats can influence public perceptions of immigration growth rates, offering suggestions to policymakers, communicators, and stakeholders about how the presentation of information can shape public opinion.

The triangular relationship in platform gig work: Consumers, platform beneficence and worker vulnerability

AbstractPlatform gig work is created and contested in dynamic, triangular relationships between platforms, workers, and consumers. Compared with the first two groups, however, evidence about the role of the third—consumers—is sparse. In this paper, we investigate consumers' changing perceptions of work in the platform gig economy and argue that their perspective warrants greater attention in sociological analyses. Using data from two Australian public opinion surveys conducted 5 years apart (2017 and 2022), we explore how consumers' views of platform gig work evolved during a period of rapid change that includes the first 2 years of the COVID‐19 pandemic. We find that while overall platform use increased markedly, many consumers felt conflicted about gig workers' conditions and key features of platforms' typical labour practices. There is a pronounced, enduring, and consequential tension in consumers' views of the merits and drawbacks of this work; between, on the one hand, an acceptance that platforms do benefit workers to some extent and, on the other hand, misgivings about workers' vulnerability to harm. In centring consumers, our paper empirically enriches current triangular conceptions of labour relations in the platform gig economy, by showing how consumers mediate the interests of platforms and workers, to shape how gig work manifests and who benefits from it. We also contribute useful new practical knowledge, by elucidating the prevailing concerns of consumers that could be developed into resonant themes for campaigns aimed at improving platform gig workers' rights.

THE CONTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC DIPLOMACY INSTITUTIONS TO THE PROGRESS OF THE COUNTRIES IN WHICH THEY ARE LOCATED IN THE PROCESS OF INTEGRATION INTO THE EUROPEAN UNION, A REVIEW OF ORGANIZATIONS OF TURKISH PUBLIC DIPLOMACY IN NORTH MACEDONIA

Edmund Gullion first used the concept of public diplomacy in its modern sense in 1965, he tried to define it as an attempt to influence public attitudes in foreign policy. Therefore, it is explained by Cull that public diplomacy covers areas of international relations other than traditional diplomacy, the efforts of governments to create public opinion in other countries, the activity of non-governmental organizations and for-profit organizations between countries, communication between diplomats, reporters and intercultural communication processes. These initiatives, which are not carried out directly or solely by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, are provided by agencies and sub-organizations specially created by the states. Thanks to these organizations, diplomatic relations are strengthened while carrying out activities abroad. These activities can be divided into two different categories such as education, cultural, artistic and linguistic development and activities for the promotion and benefit of the country, while in the second part there are initiatives for the development of infrastructure and superstructure such as health, education, technology and transport, which will develop the country in which the institutions abroad are located. In countries like North Macedonia, which wants to join the European Union and is in the negotiation phase, the infrastructure situations and development potentials such as health, education, technology, transport and the legal order are very important for the country. This study aims to examine the process carried out by the Republic of North Macedonia, which is at the crossroads of integration into the European Union, from another perspective, to touch on the contribution of foreign countries to the country in this direction, especially the contribution of Turkish institutions.

Evolution and spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake public opinion based on social media data

As critical conduits for the dissemination of online public opinion, social media platforms offer a timely and effective means for managing emergencies during major disasters, such as earthquakes. This study focuses on the analysis of online public opinions following the Maduo M7.4 earthquake in Qinghai Province and the Yangbi M6.4 earthquake in Yunnan Province. By collecting, cleaning, and organizing post-earthquake Sina Weibo (short for Weibo) data, we employed the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to extract information pertinent to public opinion on these earthquakes. This analysis included a comparison of the nature and temporal evolution of online public opinions related to both events. An emotion analysis, utilizing an emotion dictionary, categorized the emotional content of post-earthquake Weibo posts, facilitating a comparative study of the characteristics and temporal trends of online public emotions following the earthquakes. The findings were visualized using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The analysis revealed certain commonalities in online public opinion following both earthquakes. Notably, the peak of online engagement occurred within the first 24 hours post-earthquake, with a rapid decline observed between 24 to 48 hours thereafter. The variation in popularity of online public opinion was linked to aftershock occurrences. Adjusted for population factors, online engagement in areas surrounding the earthquake sites and in Sichuan Province was significantly high. Initially dominated by feelings of “fear” and “surprise”, the public sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook with the onset of rescue operations. However, distinctions in the online public response to each earthquake were also noted. Following the Yangbi earthquake, Yunnan Province reported the highest number of Weibo posts nationwide; in contrast, Qinghai Province ranked third post-Maduo earthquake, attributable to its smaller population size and extensive damage to communication infrastructure. This research offers a methodological approach for the analysis of online public opinion related to earthquakes, providing insights for the enhancement of post-disaster emergency management and public mental health support.

People's Voice: Exploring Discussion Themes on Generative AI and Libraries on X

ABSTRACTThe launch of ChatGPT and other Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) models has significantly influenced people's perceptions of AI, making its impact a widely discussed topic in various areas. In Library and Information Science (LIS), researchers experience the opportunities and challenges presented by GenAI, such as using the rich text from books and digital collections as training data for GenAI and enabling quick summarization and reference consultation for patrons. Meanwhile, concerns have arisen about the generation of fake information and nonexistent text by GenAI and their potential effects on users. This project explores the themes in public discussions regarding the impact of GenAI on libraries. To explore public opinions about the impact of GenAI in libraries, we collected over 50,000 posts from X (formerly Twitter) between November 1, 2022, and May 6, 2024. We manually sampled 1,000 posts focusing on GenAI in the context of libraries. We conducted content analysis to identify the key themes and relationships among these themes. This poster presents our initial findings on different themes and highlights the trends in public opinion. Our analysis provides a curated dataset for training APIs for future investigation.

Türkiye’de Covid-19 Salgınında Halkla İlişkiler Kampanyaları ve Gebelerin Aşı Olma Tutumları

Vaccines have been produced and released in different countries to prevent the risk of transmission of Covid-19, which is shown as the biggest global pandemic of the era, and to eliminate the pandemic situation. Public relations campaigns to promote vaccines to the global public is an issue that deserves academic scrutiny. The possible side effects of vaccines according to the age and health status of individuals and the fact that they have not been tried before have brought along doubts in the public opinion. The misinformation spread through communication tools about these doubts has also caused fear and panic in the society. The intensive production of content on social media during the pandemic period has made the dissemination of misinformation and distortion of information on the subject prominent. Although scientific data and findings have shown that vaccination is important, public panic has been tried to be dampened by public relations campaigns. Considering that vaccines are seen as a threat as much as the pandemic, especially for pregnant women, the importance of examining the role of public relations campaigns in accurate information and crisis management can be understood. For this purpose, it is aimed to reveal how public relations campaigns are perceived in individuals' decision-making and vaccination tendencies. In the study, qualitative design method was preferred and data were collected through semi-structured in-depth interviews. For this purpose, the tendency of pregnant women to be vaccinated was questioned in interviews with 5 gynecologists from different districts of Ankara. Taking regional differences into account, the perspectives of health personnel on public relations campaigns were tried to be revealed. The study was conducted between March and June 2023. The study focuses on the concept of opinion leader of the two-stage flow model used in communication studies and focuses on how ideas about vaccination spread from opinion leaders to the society. In addition, the study utilizes social identification theory, which conducts research to understand how social norms are formed, change and function.

Understanding public opinion formation in Southeast Europe: Exploring social forces and communication dynamics

The article investigates the mechanisms through which social forces, networks, cognitive frames, and institutions shape public opinion in Southeast Europe via communication. Employing a qualitative approach, data was collected through synchronous focus groups conducted in six Southeast European countries. The findings reveal that social networks play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion, with organizational position and relationships influencing communication effectiveness. Cognitive frames significantly impact public perception, with entrenched beliefs guiding interpretation of information. Meanwhile, social institutions, such as language and communication rules, influence the clarity and accessibility of messages, thereby shaping public understanding. The research underscores the need for deeper research, ethical standards, and transparent communication to build and maintain public trust. Continuous engagement with the public and adaptability in communication strategies are essential for fostering mutual understanding and trust. This research emphasizes social forces’ complexity and overlapping nature in shaping public opinion and the strategic approaches required for effective communication in Southeast Europe.

Book Theft as Social Deviance in Modern China: An Elegant Offense or the Intellectual Robin Hood

During China’s transition from pre-modern to modern society, book theft, as a form of social deviance, reflected the multifaceted cultural metaphors of books in modern Chinese social life. The shift from the notion that “common thieves do not steal books” to book theft as a representation of cultural power struggles exemplifies the media cultural transformation in modern Chinese society. Contemporary attitudes towards book theft reveal complex tensions between economic order, publishing supply and demand, social mentality, cultural capital, knowledge power, media discourse, and public opinion during this period of societal change. In this context, book theft can be seen as a dual phenomenon, embodying both a clever and sophisticated act that challenges dominant norms and values on one hand, and a form of rebellion that seeks to redistribute power and knowledge, akin to the legendary outlaw Robin Hood, on the other.

US Public Opinion About Reproductive Health Care in School-Based Health Centers

(Abstracted from Contraception 2024;132:110374) Reproductive education and health services for adolescents are extremely variable, depending on location and community access. Restrictions on abortion and the end of Medicaid continuous enrollment have contributed to regressions in access to different varieties of reproductive health care, and thus research targeting ways to mitigate these regressions is paramount.

Competing for Trust: How Initiative and Repetition of Exposure Influence Information Credibility

ABSTRACTModern democracy often requires citizens to engage in policy debates demanding multidisciplinary knowledge. This can lead to a cognitive gap that urges citizens to seek information for decision‐making on unfamiliar policy issues. The credibility of this information is crucial, as it shapes individual perceptions and attitudes, which aggregate as public opinions. To deepen the understanding of information credibility, this study proposes an experiment leveraging theories of the continued influence effect and the illusory truth effect to answer how initiative and repetition of exposure influence the evaluation of information credibility. 1,400 participants will be recruited and requested to rate the credibility of opposing arguments regarding a fictitious referendum provided with varying orders and numbers. The result is expected to show a positive causality between exposure initiative, information repetition, and information credibility. The findings will aid in promoting well‐informed democratic deliberation in an era of political polarization.

Tobias A. Jopp, War, Bond Prices, and Public Opinion. How Did the Amsterdam Bond Market Perceive the Belligerents’ War Effort During World War One. (Economy and History, Vol. 2.) Tübingen, Mohr Siebeck 2021

Tobias A. Jopp, War, Bond Prices, and Public Opinion. How Did the Amsterdam Bond Market Perceive the Belligerents’ War Effort During World War One. (Economy and History, Vol. 2.) Tübingen, Mohr Siebeck 2021

Measuring norm pluralism and perceived polarization in US politics.

Recent research has shown how norms shape political and economic decision-making. Much of this work assumes that a single norm influences the behavior of all people, but in fact, many situations are characterized by the existence of competing normative viewpoints. We apply a method for measuring belief in the simultaneous existence of multiple norms. Such multiplicity arises naturally when norms are associated with distinctive groups, and thus political polarization can be characterized, in part, as a product of diverging norms between groups. We thus assess the validity of our measurement technique by testing whether it can recover polarization on seven salient political issues on which US Democrats and Republicans tend to hold different views. We then compare the norms elicited by our method to the norms of Democrats and Republicans elicited in a separate sample using an established and validated-but methodologically less rich-measurement approach. Our study uncovers a wide range of co-existing views between and within political groups. Partisans understand their group's norms and hold personal views that align with them. They can also recognize the diversity and polarization in US public opinion by identifying norms specific to political parties and acknowledging the variety of views within their own parties, which may indicate internal divisions. This research underscores the importance of nuanced approaches to political norms that go beyond party lines. By acknowledging a plurality of views, we can encourage productive discussions and bridge ideological divides.

Sunscreens: potential hazards to environmental and human health

The increasing demand for natural products in the United States reflects a cultural shift towards health and sustainability. This trend infiltrates consumer sectors such as the sunscreen industry, amidst concerns about health and environmental impacts of chemical ingredients. The Hawaii Sunscreen Ban has intensified sunscreen formula safety discussions, particularly regarding butylparaben, oxybenzone, and octinoxate. Even at low concentrations, these compounds bleach hard corals eventually leading to their death. As well, these chemicals pose threats to marine ecosystems and raise concerns about human health, particularly systemic absorption and the possibility of causing endocrine disruption. While some argue for chemical-based sunscreens for skin cancer prevention, others advocate for mineral-based alternatives that avoid harmful ingredients. However, public opinion on sunscreen varies, influenced by adverse reactions, socioeconomic status, gender, and cultural perceptions. Future studies should explore diverse demographic perspectives and long-term health and environmental impacts of products containing potentially toxic ingredients. As well, effective communication strategies to promote sunscreen safety and encourage sustainable sun protection practices is needed.

Does Twitter happiness predict bullish markets? A study of the US stock markets

The evolving literature on using Twitter to capture investor sentiment suggests that stock market performance is linearly associated with Twitter's public mood. We investigate whether investor sentiment determined by the Twitter sentiment index (TSI) has a nonlinear predictive power for stock market behaviour. Using a dataset of seven US stock markets, we apply the cointegration techniques to show the relationship between Twitter sentiment and stock market behaviour. The results suggest a dynamic nonlinear cointegrating relationship. During the short run, Twitter happiness has a substantial effect on stock market indices, while in the long run, it has a moderating effect. Twitter happiness has a dominant effect on the US stock market indices than unhappy Twitter. These results highlight Twitter's growing role in predicting the stock market behaviour and show that the TSI acts as a better predictor of investor sentiment.

Exploring the Opinion Shifting of Social Media Users Based on Stance Detection

ABSTRACTFine‐grained mining of stance change among social media users during crises contributes significantly to a comprehensive understanding of the development of public opinion online. This study collected detailed information on 227,281 Twitter users who continuously participated in the discussion about the COVID‐19 vaccine to analyze patterns of opinion shifting. Utilizing the COVID‐Twitter‐BERT pre‐trained model, we detect each user's stance on the COVID‐19 vaccine and construct a time‐series dataset reflecting their stance over time. A prediction model for users' opinion shifting is established based on the LightGBM model, and the SHAP explanation method is used to rank the importance of features to identify key features influencing the opinion shifting prediction. Our research findings indicate that nearly half of the users maintained a consistent stance on vaccines, with a relatively low proportion of shifts between pro‐vaccine and anti‐vaccine stances. The F1 value of the prediction model based on the LightGBM model is 0.92. These findings can assist in monitoring social media user opinions online.

Applications of Google Trends as a Data Source for Statistical Models

As technology advances, there is a growing number of potential data sources that can provide an alternative to traditional surveys. An example of this is the real time search popularity data made available through Google Trends. This type of data makes it possible to study public opinion, behaviour and attitudes in society or forecast economic phenomena. A definite advantage of using search popularity data is the immediate availability and low cost of obtaining such data. Also of significance is the fact that the Google Trends tool allows for direct research into the behaviour of Internet users, and not just their declarations as in the case of a survey. This can make a difference if respondents consider one of the answers to be more morally correct. Nevertheless, the use of Google Trends requires selecting correct search topics and terms to be included in the study and an awareness of the fact that the research sample is limited to Google search engine users. The paper will present the advantages and disadvantages of Google Trends and review its usefulness as a data source especially in times of higher market volatility.