Public Opinion Quarterly Research Articles

The Social Context of Voter Turnout

This paper reexamines the classic interpersonal explanation of electoral participation. The analysis is based on loglinear modeling of published tabulations from the November 1984, 1982, and 1980 Current Population Surveys. The results support a contagion model of spousal voting. Turnout is higher among those living with a spouse than among other members of the electorate. The high association between husband's and wife's turnout noted in a 1956 presidential election survey (Q = .94) is found to be robust and stable over time. The relevance of these findings for contemporary models of electoral participation is discussed. The role of personal relationships in turning out voters is absent or negligible in contemporary models of electoral participation (Kinder and Sears, 1985; Aldrich and Simon, 1986; Grofman, 1987).1 In contrast, the classic Columbia voting studies (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, and Gaudet, 1948; Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee, 1954) delineated systematically the social context of voting behavior. Primary-group associates (friends and family) were theorized as providers of political information and influence. The likely mechanisms by which social environments stimulate turnout include the channeling of political information, persuasive argumentation, social pressure, cooperation, and friendly competition. A voter's family, friends, and coworkers serve as bridges to larger networks of social relations (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, and McPhee, 1954:94) which provide access to the information and resources that stimulate political interest and provide an informed basis for making ballot choices. Interpersonal influence occurs when the reluctant voter adopts or acquiesces to an associate's expectations, when associates BRUCE C. STRAITS is Associate Professor of Sociology at the University of California, Santa Barbara. The author thanks Noah E. Friedkin, Eric R. A. N. Smith, and Thomas P. Wilson for comments on an earlier draft. 1. A notable exception is the network approach of Huckfeldt and Sprague, 1987, 1988. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 54:64-73 ? 1990 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/90/0054-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.91 on Wed, 21 Sep 2016 06:01:32 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms The Social Context of Voter Turnout 65 reciprocally support each other's electoral participation, and even when an individual is motivated to vote for the opposing candidate to cancel out an associate's choice. This paper provides evidence that one crucial aspect of social context, the spousal relationship, cannot be neglected in explanations of electoral participation. The results support a contagion model of voting: turnout is higher among those living with a spouse, and spouses tend to be joint voters or nonvoters. The similarity in spousal voting appears quite stable over time and unaffected when controls are applied for the major nonattitudinal determinants of voter turnout (educational attainment and age).

Book Note

Book Note Thomas W. Graham , American Public Opinion on NATO Extended Deterrence, and Use of Nuclear Weapons: Future Fission?; Lanham, MD: University Press of America, and Centre for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, 1989, 158 pp., $21.50 cloth, $10.25 paper. GREGORY ANDRADE DIAMOND GREGORY ANDRADE DIAMOND University of Michigan Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 54, Issue 2, SUMMER 1990, Pages 293–294, https://doi.org/10.1086/269207 Published: 01 January 1990

A Comparison of the Viability of Mail Surveys in Japan and the United States

A comparison of response rates and patterns to a mail survey conducted simultaneously on random samples drawn from telephone listings in Seattle, Washington, and Kobe, Japan, is presented. When undeliverable surveys (those for which the intended respondent had moved or passed away) are subtracted from the original samples, a comparison of the differences in the response rate percentages for the two countries is found to be statistically insignificant. Adherence to the theoretical foundation of the Total Design Method is claimed to be the principal reason for success in achieving a higher response rate than predicted by Japanese scholars to the mail survey in Japan. These results show that there is potential for adapting survey research techniques developed in the United States to non-Occidental settings. In spite of the increasing social and economic interdependence of the world's peoples, little work has been done on adapting survey research techniques perfected in the United States to cross-national settings. While there have been successful cross-national mail surveys of business executives (Dawson and Dickinson, 1988; Jobber and Saunders, 1988; Keown, 1985), there are no reports in the academic literature about mail surveys conducted simultaneously on general populations in more than one country. This is unfortunate, for more cross-national research needs to be done by Americans to correct the culture bound limitations of research done in the U.S.(Green and White, 1976; Kohn, 1987). RAYMOND A. JUSSAUME, JR., iS Assistant Professor of Rural Sociology at Washington State University. YOSHIHARU YAMADA is Associate Professor of Economics at Wakayama University. This paper is based upon research supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture under agreement no. 88-33574-4054. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to Don Dillman for his encouragement and insights. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 54.219-228 ( 1990 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/90/0054-02/$2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.112 on Mon, 03 Oct 2016 05:38:12 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 220 Raymond A. Jussaume, Jr., and Yoshiharu Yamada Due to their comparatively low cost, mail surveys hold great promise for cross-national studies between societies where there are high literacy rates. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate this potential by analyzing the results of a total design method (TDM) mail survey administered simultaneously in the United States and Japan. The return rates obtained demonstrate that a culturally sensitized TDM mail survey can be successfully implemented in a nonwestern setting.

The Obsession to Forecast: Pre-Election Polls in the Israeli Press

The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media has stimulated a debate on the effects of publicized polls on voters. Data for this study come from a content analysis of all press reports on polls during six pre-election campaigns in Israel (1969-88). The findings highlight the impressive increase of poll reports both by space and by prominence in the press. Analysis of the reports' content reveals that the style of reporting polls has become dominated by horse-race journalism, where predictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes. In addition, although the reports have become more detailed and informative, they still do not adequately define or interpret methodological deficiencies. Finally, the analysis examines the intercorrelations between attributes of coverage and prediction errors. The fact that the independen't variable, media coverage of polls, has changed significantly calls for the inclusion of this factor in any study of polls' effects. The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media has aroused interest in the effects of such media coverage on voters' preferences. A recent survey of studies on these effects (Donsbach, 1987) reveals the lack of consistency in empirical evidence regarding the nature and the magnitude of the polls' influence. Several studies and reviewers of public opinion research argue that there is no significant change in public attitudes or voting behavior (e.g., Atkin, 1969; Klapper, 1960; Mendelsohn and Crespi, 1970; Roshwalb and Resnicoff, 1971) while the strong effect claimers find support in the ideas and findings of Noelle-Neumann (1973, 1974, 1976, 1984), calling for a return to the concept of powerful mass media. The reason for this lingering debate and the confusing findings may GABRIEL WEIMANN is Associate Professor of Communications and Chair of the Department of Sociology at Haifa University, Israel, and Visiting Professor at the Institut fur Publizistik, Universitat Mainz, Germany. The study was supported by a research grant from the Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung, West Germany. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 54:396-408 ? 1990 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/90/0054-03/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.157 on Mon, 01 Aug 2016 04:42:43 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 397 The Obsession to Forecast be a combination of several factors such as: (a) the general debate on media effects (see reviews by Katz, 1980 and 1988); (b) the multidimensionality of the effects (the political effects of publicized polls may involve cognitive, affective, or behavioral influences or various combinations of these dimensions); (c) short-term versus long-term effects; (d) direct and indirect effects; and (e) changes in media coverage of polls. The coverage of polls varies across societies and cultures, across political systems and regimes, and over time. This makes crosscultural and longitudinal comparisons less valid. The polling industry has changed and so have the relationships between the media and the polling agencies (Gollin, 1988; Shamir, 1986). The fact that the indepedent variable itself, that is, the presentation of polls in the media, may have changed over time is another potential explanation for the inconsistency among studies that focus only on the effects. The present study focuses on the last factor: it examines the changes in press coverage of polls during six political campaigns in Israel.

A Mass Poisoning Rumor in Europe]: Comment

Journal Article COMMENT Get access TOM W. SMITH TOM W. SMITH NORC Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 54, Issue 3, FALL 1990, Page 436, https://doi.org/10.1086/269216 Published: 01 January 1990

Book Note

Journal Article Book Note Get access Almanac of the American People, 1988, compiled by Tom and Nancy Biracree, is a potpourri of information on “Your Job,” “Your Love Life,” “What You Eat and Drink,” and a variety of other topics. Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 53, Issue 2, Summer 1989, Page 283, https://doi.org/10.1086/269512 Published: 01 January 1989

Latent Class Analysis of Survey Questions that Include Don't Know Responses

Latent Class Analysis of Survey Questions that Include Don't Know Responses

The American Soldier: An Assessment, Several Wars Later

Editor's Note This year marks the fortieth anniversary of the publication of a book of great significance for PUBLIC OPINION QUARTERLY readers: The American Soldier. (The American Soldier itself was part of a larger series, Studies in Social Psychology in World War II, which included an important 1949 volume by Carl Hovland and others on Experiments in Mass Communication and an equally important methodological volume of writings by Louis Guttman, Paul Lazarsfeld, and others, Measurement and Prediction, published one year later.) The range of separate studies reported in The American Soldier, their ingenuity, method of analysis, and theoretical implications, helped establish research on public opinion as an important area for scientific work, as well as signaling the contributions of a remarkable number of social scientists brought together in this unique wartime effort. One of that group, the distinguished sociologist Robin M. Williams, Jr., has agreed to reflect on the importance-then and now-of The American Soldier. We hope that his essay will send our readers back to the original volumes. There is much still to learn from them.

A Review: Question Wording and Reports of Survey Results: The Case of Louis Harris and Associates and Aetna Life and Casualty

Journal Article THE POLLS—A Review: QUESTION WORDING AND REPORTS OF SURVEY RESULTS: THE CASE OF LOUIS HARRIS AND ASSOCIATES AND AETNA LIFE AND CASUALTY Get access JON A. KROSNICK JON A. KROSNICK Assistant Professor of Psychology and Political Science at the Ohio State University and Visiting Research Investigator at the Institute for Social Research Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 53, Issue 1, Spring 1989, Pages 107–113, https://doi.org/10.1086/269144 Published: 01 January 1989

Self-Interest and Public Opinion Toward Smoking Restrictions and Cigarette Taxes

Self-Interest and Public Opinion Toward Smoking Restrictions and Cigarette Taxes

Some Like It Hot: Individual Differences in Responses to Group Feeling Thermometers

Some Like It Hot: Individual Differences in Responses to Group Feeling Thermometers

Democratic Incumbents and the 1984 Presidential Election: A Case Study

This article examines the advantages a single Democratic incumbent utilized to win reelection in 1984 despite an overwhelming victory by Ronald Reagan at the top of the ticket in the congressional district. The incumbent won reelection because of two types of ticket splitting: Republican-inclined voters who voted for Republican candidates for president and U.S. Senate and split to vote for the Democratic incumbent for Congress, and Democratic voters who supported Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate and Congress but split to vote for Ronald Reagan for president. Ticket splitting was found to be associated with basic political orientation-weak Republican and independent voters split in favor of the Democratic incumbent and were far less likely to vote a straight ticket for either party. Support for the Democratic incumbent was explained in nonideological terms and was based upon high recognition and favorability, constituent service, voting record, and personal familiarity. For the Republican challenger, who never achieved a high level of recognition (despite significant campaign expenditure), support came almost solely from the most partisan Republican members of the electorate and was based simply upon the party affiliation of the Republican challenger. In 1984, despite one of the most one-sided presidential elections in American history, the Republicans gained only fourteen seats in the House of Representatives and lost two seats in the Senate. Almost all Democratic congressional incumbents who ran for reelection in 1984 won. The focus of this research is on the reelection of one Democratic incumbent congressman and provides an opportunity to examine at the micro level the advantages that one Democratic incumbent utilized in 1984 to win reelection. The willingness of a significant number of KURT C. SCHLICHTING is Associate Professor of Sociology at Fairfield University. The author wishes to thank the Fairfield University Research Committee for support. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 53:83-97 ? 1989 by the Amerncan Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/88/0053-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.64 on Sat, 03 Sep 2016 04:04:58 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 84 Kurt C. Schlichting voters to split their ticket proved decisive. The Democratic incumbent won reelection to Congress with 53% of the votes cast while Walter Mondale, the Democratic presidential candidate, received 36%. The likelihood of ticket splitting was found to be directly correlated with the strength of political affiliation and the high level of recognition and positive evaluation of the incumbent by almost all segments of the electorate. The incumbent congressman was also able to take advantage of the fact that a significant portion of the electorate had decided in favor of the incumbent before September 1984. Since the 1950s a great deal of attention has been focused on the voting behavior of the American electorate, but the emphasis has been on voting in presidential elections. A recent major study of congressional elections by Goldenberg and Traugott (1984:6) points out the predominantly presidential focus of virtually all large studies of elections until 1978. It is not until 1978 that the National Election Study (NES) conducted by the University of Michigan substituted congressional districts for counties as primary sampling units and began to include questions specific to the congressional elections. The major limitation of the NES, the primary source for survey data on congressional elections, is that few interviews are conducted in any one congressional district. The Goldenberg and Traugott analysis focuses on types of congressional races: open seats, incumbent seats, incumbent-sure winners, incumbent-vulnerables, and not on any one congressional district. The authors analyze 86 contested races among the 108 congressional districts in the NES sample (1984). The survey data is drawn from the 1978 NES and consists of 1,843 interviews, an average of 21 interviews per district in the contested districts (N = 86). The present study examines survey data from a single congressional district for the 1984 presidential election. The congressional district analyzed is located in a large midwestern state and consists of urban, suburban, and rural areas. Its other demographic characteristics mirror those of the state as a whole. The congressional district is one which was identified by both parties as marginal (vulnerable in Goldenberg and Traugott terminology) in 1984. The incumbent Democrat faced a strong challenge from a well-financed Republican. The Republican challenger spent over $450,000, while the incumbent's campaign expenditures exceeded $555,000.

The Missing Link: Political Activists and Support for School Prayer

The Missing Link: Political Activists and Support for School Prayer

Book Notes

Journal Article BOOK NOTES Get access Asher Arian, Illan Talmud, and Tamar Hermann, National Security and Public Opinion in Israel. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988, 133 pp. AMIRAM VINOKUR AMIRAM VINOKUR Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 53, Issue 3, Fall 1989, Pages 439–440, https://doi.org/10.1086/269165 Published: 01 January 1989

Economic News on Television: The Determinants of Coverage

This paper examines television networks' coverage of unemployment rate, inflation rate as measured by Consumer Price Index, and growth rate of real GNP over twelve years from 1973 through 1984. This time period includes two major recessions, two severe bursts of inflation, and three presidential elections. A common complaint is that networks overemphasize bad economic news. Using two measures of coverage, this paper examines whether television networks give greater coverage to these statistics when they are deteriorating. The empirical results reveal that networks do give greater coverage to bad economic news during nonelection years, but this pattern disappears during election years. The empirical results also reveal that presidential comments are very powerful in shaping amount of coverage given to these economic statistics. There is strong evidence that television news plays a powerful role in shaping public opinion (Kinder and Iyengar, 1987). This influence, however, may or may not be desirable. According to Kinder and Iyengar, this depends on thorny of faithfully pictures and stories that appear on news each night portray what of real consequence is actually happening in world (1987:122). The networks' coverage of presents a wonderful opportunity to investigate this question for two reasons. First, there is a common perception among some critics that networks' coverage of distorts reality. These critics complain that networks overemphasize bad economic news. For example, economist Herbert Stein-a former chairman of Council of Economic Advisors-believes that the press communicates an excesDAVID E. HARRINGTON iS Himmelright Assistant Professor of Economics at Kenyon College. The author would like to thank Bruce Corrie and John Scott for their research assistance as well as Rick Coe, John Elliott, Kathy Krynski, Jim Likens, Mark Montgomery, Steve Marks, Hans Palmer, Gary Smith, Peter Weipert, and Frank Wykoff for their helpful comments. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 53:17-40 ? 1989 by American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/88/0053-01/$2.50 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.106 on Mon, 25 Apr 2016 05:56:40 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 18 David E. Harrington sively dramatic, anxious and negative view of economy (Stein, 1975:40). Similarly, President Reagan complained during 1982-83 recession that constantly downbeat coverage of was inhibiting recovery (Washington Post, 1982). In response, CBS anchorman Dan Rather argues that these criticisms are attempts to convince public that are not problems (Associated Press, 1983). In other words, he believes that these critics are blaming messengers for bad economic news. Second, actual performance of is continuously measured by several economic statistics. As a result, it is possible to examine how coverage of economy'depends on actual performance of economy. This paper uses networks' coverage of unemployment rate, inflation rate as measured by Consumer Price Index, and growth rate of real GNP over twelve years from 1973 through 1984 to test whether television networks give greater coverage to these statistics when they are deteriorating, holding other factors constant. The paper also examines how coverage changes during election years and whether president can influence amount of coverage by commenting on statistics.

The Role of Constituent Trust in Congressional Elections

The purpose of this inquiry is to introduce a new variable into the study of congressional elections-constituent trust. Constituent trust is defined as the level of confidence that constituents have in their elected representative. This analysis suggests a strategy for measuring constituent trust and develops a model that relates constituent trust directly and indirectly to electoral support. By pooling cross-sectional data drawn from the University of Michigan's American National Election Studies (1978-84), I demonstrate that when constituent trust is salient in voter cognitions, it has a significant direct influence on electoral support and is a better predictor of electoral support than the incumbent's party identification. In addition to its direct effects, I show that constituent trust indirectly influences electoral support because of its causal relationship to incumbent popularity. One of the most important, but neglected, variables in the study of Congress is constituent trust.1 When a constituent trusts a House member, the constituent is saying something like this: 'I am willing to put myself in your hands temporarily; I know you will have opportunities to hurt me, although I may not know when those opportunities occur; I assume-and I will continue to assume until it is proven otherwise-that you will not hurt me; for the time being, then, I'm not going to worry about your behavior' (Fenno, 1978:55-56). In short, conGLENN R. PARKER iS Professor of Political Science and a member of the Policy Sciences Program at Florida State University. An earlier version of this paper was delivered at the 1987 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, 3-6 September 1987. The author expresses appreciation to Dale Fodness for his assistance in the analysis. This analysis has benefitted from the comments and advice of Richard Fenno, Morris Fiorina, and Leroy Rieselbach. None of these scholars, however, bears any responsibility for the interpretations or conclusions presented in this paper. 1. For example, Hinckley's (1980a) precise summary of past research on congressional elections and the theoretical and empirical advances resulting from the 1978 American National Election Study makes no mention of constituent trust as a critical variable in past, present, or future studies of congressional elections. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 53.175-196 ? 1989 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press 1 0033-362X/89/0053-02/$2 50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.71 on Wed, 27 Apr 2016 06:38:19 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

Comment: The Digest Poll Rides Again!

Journal Article COMMENT: THE DIGEST POLL RIDES AGAIN! Get access DON CAHALAN DON CAHALAN Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 53, Issue 1, Spring 1989, Pages 129–133, https://doi.org/10.1086/269146 Published: 01 January 1989

The Man in the Teflon Suit? The Environmental Connection, Political Drama, and Popular Support in the Reagan Presidency

The Man in the Teflon Suit? The Environmental Connection, Political Drama, and Popular Support in the Reagan Presidency

Mass and Elite Attitudes About Wiretapping in Canada: Implications for Democratic Theory and Politics

Mass and Elite Attitudes About Wiretapping in Canada: Implications for Democratic Theory and Politics

A Mass Poisoning Rumor in Europe

For more than ten years, a rumor has been spreading in Europe. Transmitted from hand to hand on a leaflet, this rumor accuses ten well-known brands of food products of being toxic and producing cancer. Because of its persistence, extensiveness, and tangible nature, rumor lends itself to empirical research. This article presents most significant results of a number of studies assessing rumor's penetration, its modes of diffusion, and its behavioral effects. For more than ten years, a contamination rumor has been circulating in France. Long-lived, despite all official denials, this rumor is passed along not by word of mouth but from hand to hand, in form of a leaflet. Thus, by its tangibility and durability, this rumor lends itself to empirical investigations. Such analyses are all more necessary in so far as this leaflet has gained considerable terrain: in France, it is estimated that about half of all housewives have been exposed to this rumor. In other words, by its persistence, pervasiveness, and persuasiveness, this rumor-known as the leaflet of Villejuif '-is one of most important rumors France has had for many years. It has also spread to many other European countries; translated versions are now circulating in Great Britain, Germany, Italy, and abroad in Middle East and Africa. A sign of a rampant mistrust of modern food and technology, this rumor testifies to vulnerability of public opinion across all social classes. This article is divided into two parts: first part presents facts and second draws implications from such an extensive phenomenon. History and Diffusion of Leaflet of Villejuif In spring of 1976, French headquarters of major food companies operating in France (Coca-Cola, Cadbury-Schweppes, Martini, J. N. KAPFERER iS President of Foundation for Study and Information on Rumors (Paris, France) and Professor of Communication at l'Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales and l'Institut Superieur des Affaires, France. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 53 467-481 ? 1989 by American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press / 0033-362X/89/0053-04/$2 50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.176 on Mon, 20 Jun 2016 06:29:46 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms