The Role of Constituent Trust in Congressional Elections

Abstract

The purpose of this inquiry is to introduce a new variable into the study of congressional elections-constituent trust. Constituent trust is defined as the level of confidence that constituents have in their elected representative. This analysis suggests a strategy for measuring constituent trust and develops a model that relates constituent trust directly and indirectly to electoral support. By pooling cross-sectional data drawn from the University of Michigan's American National Election Studies (1978-84), I demonstrate that when constituent trust is salient in voter cognitions, it has a significant direct influence on electoral support and is a better predictor of electoral support than the incumbent's party identification. In addition to its direct effects, I show that constituent trust indirectly influences electoral support because of its causal relationship to incumbent popularity. One of the most important, but neglected, variables in the study of Congress is constituent trust.1 When a constituent trusts a House member, the constituent is saying something like this: 'I am willing to put myself in your hands temporarily; I know you will have opportunities to hurt me, although I may not know when those opportunities occur; I assume-and I will continue to assume until it is proven otherwise-that you will not hurt me; for the time being, then, I'm not going to worry about your behavior' (Fenno, 1978:55-56). In short, conGLENN R. PARKER iS Professor of Political Science and a member of the Policy Sciences Program at Florida State University. An earlier version of this paper was delivered at the 1987 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, 3-6 September 1987. The author expresses appreciation to Dale Fodness for his assistance in the analysis. This analysis has benefitted from the comments and advice of Richard Fenno, Morris Fiorina, and Leroy Rieselbach. None of these scholars, however, bears any responsibility for the interpretations or conclusions presented in this paper. 1. For example, Hinckley's (1980a) precise summary of past research on congressional elections and the theoretical and empirical advances resulting from the 1978 American National Election Study makes no mention of constituent trust as a critical variable in past, present, or future studies of congressional elections. Public Opinion Quarterly Volume 53.175-196 ? 1989 by the American Association for Public Opinion Research Published by The University of Chicago Press 1 0033-362X/89/0053-02/$2 50 This content downloaded from 207.46.13.71 on Wed, 27 Apr 2016 06:38:19 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms