Changes In Public Opinion Research Articles

Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru 1960-2010: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation, and Stabilization

We describe Peru’s experience of chronic inflation through the 1970s and 1980s as a result of the need for inflationary taxation in a regime of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. Hyperinflation occurred when further debt accumulation became unavailable, and a populist administration engaged in a counterproductive policy of price controls and loose credit. We interpret the fiscal difficulties preceding the stabilization as a process of social learning to live within the realities of fiscal budget balance. The credibility of policy regime change in the 1990s may be linked ultimately to the change in public opinion giving proper incentives to politicians, after the traumatic consequences of the hyper stagflation of 1987-1990.

Realisation of Social Needs of Students in the Field of Education in Ukraine

Realisation of Social Needs of Students in the Field of Education in Ukraine

The role played by environmental concern and institutional trust in changing public preferences for water management

AbstractEfforts to improve the efficiency of irrigation systems in areas which suffer from water scarcity have often failed to reduce water demand owing to the constant expansion of irrigation. Andalusia, in southern Spain, is a clear case in point, as the publicly funded programs aimed at improving irrigation put forward since the 1990s after recurrent episodes of drought have not been able to meet agrarian demand. This situation has generated an active debate among stakeholders and public managers. This study aims to investigate the role of public opinion in this debate, as demanded by new water governance models, embodied in the Water Framework Directive. We use the results of a representative annual survey in Andalusia between 2004 and 2013. First, we analyze the evolution of public support for the two most costly public measures: constructing reservoirs and improving irrigation. Second, we analyze some attitudes that may have affected a change in public opinion, including institutional trust and environmental concern. The results suggest that the public legitimizes the administration's bid for more efficient irrigation systems, essentially for environmental reasons. However, should attempts to control water demand continue to fail, support for this measure may be withdrawn.

Understanding public opinion change of HPV vaccination controversy

Purpose Although Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) is the most commonly diagnosed sexually transmitted infection in the USA, much controversy exists with respect to HPV vaccination, especially among parents of adolescents. Previous research has shown that exemplars in the media influence public opinion estimates about controversial social issues. However, little is known about the underlying psychological processes of how exemplars influence public opinion formation. The purpose of this paper is to systematically explore such psychological processes based on the projection theory. To this end, the important yet controversial public health issue, the mandatory HPV vaccination, was chosen. Design/methodology/approach A two-factor (exemplar vs proportion), between-subject experiment was conducted using online newspaper articles as main stimuli. A total of 138 participants completed the study. The analytical framework comprised the Sobel test with the Bootstrap method and a series of Ordinary Least Square hierarchical regression analyses. Findings The higher the proportion of exemplars against the HPV vaccination in a news article was, the greater the number of individuals who became opposed to it was. And the high personal opposition translated into negative public opinion change estimation. Originality/value The findings indicate that news exemplars may influence individuals’ personal opinion formation, and, in turn, contribute to their estimations of future public opinion climate, as suggested by the projection theory. Theoretical, methodological and practical implications for journalists, health educators and policy makers are discussed.

The Bully Pulpit, Social Media, and Public Opinion: A Big Data Approach

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we seek to understand the contemporary power of the presidential “bully pulpit”—the persuasive power of the nation’s highest elected office—in a context of shifting patterns of mediation. We do so by examining a major social media communication platform (Twitter) for evidence of changes in public opinion before and after President Obama’s high-profile statements on net neutrality in November 2014. This study includes novel and comprehensive data on the effects of a presidential announcement on public opinion. With social media playing a growing role in both electoral and policy discourse, this paper offers a methodological foundation for future studies in the changing nature of the presidential bully pulpit and the role of social media as a tool of mediation in political communication.

Visibly restricted: public opinion and the representation of immigrant origin communities across Great Britain

ABSTRACT This research brings together literatures on public opinion and political representation into a political opportunity framework to investigate the impact that changing public opinion toward immigration has on the parliamentary descriptive representation of immigrant groups in Great Britain. It breaks down Britain’s immigrant groups into white and non-white (ethnic minority) backgrounds, so as to investigate the specific barriers posed by both immigrant status and minority ethnic status. Using new data on the backgrounds of nearly 1,500 MPs over the past five parliaments, and Stimson dyadic-ratios aggregations of 1,000 survey marginals on immigration from five high-quality sources, this research concludes that increasingly negative public opinion does indeed restrict the descriptive representation of ethnic minority immigrant origin groups in Britain, but not white immigrant origin groups. Preliminary analysis of candidate data suggests that parties place minority candidates in “unwinnable” seats in areas of high anti-immigrant public opinion.

It Is Not a Cohort Thing: Interrogating the Relationship Between Age, Cohort, and Support for the Environment

Cohort replacement is one widely implicated, but seldom studied, mechanism of long-term change in public opinion toward environmental protection. A key difficulty in extant research has been empirically distinguishing cohort effects from those of age. Applying recent methodological advances in age–period–cohort models, we examine the disaggregated effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on changes in Americans’ support of federal spending for environmental protection between 1973 and 2016. Results suggest that cohort replacement provides little explanatory power. Instead, we find large age effects, with the young more likely to be pro-environmental in their views, and substantial changes across time periods (but not steady rising support). These results suggest that there is no inexorable march toward greater environmentalism as younger cohorts with greater environmental awareness replace older ones, and highlight the relative lack of explicit theorizing about the relationship between age and the environment.

Firearm Storage in Gun-Owning Households with Children: Results of a 2015 National Survey.

Data from a nationally representative probability-based online survey sample of US adults conducted in 2015 (n = 3949, response rate 55%) were used to assess self-reported gun storage practices among gun owners with children. The presence of firearms and children in the home, along with other household and individual level characteristics, was ascertained from all respondents. Questions pertaining to household firearms (how guns are stored, number, type, etc.) were asked only of those respondents who reported that they personally owned a gun. We found that approximately one in three US households contains at least one firearm, regardless of whether children lived in the home (0.34 [0.29-0.39]) or not (0.35 [0.32-0.38]). Among gun-owning households with children, approximately two in ten gun owners store at least one gun in the least safe manner, i.e., loaded and unlocked (0.21 [0.17-0.26]); three in ten store all guns in the safest manner, i.e., unloaded and locked (0.29, [0.24-0.34]; and the remaining half (0.50 [0.45-0.55]) store firearms in some other way. Although firearm storage practices do not appear to vary across some demographic characteristics, including age, sex, and race, gun owners are more likely to store at least one gun loaded and unlocked if they are female (0.31 [0.23-0.41]) vs. male (0.17 [0.13-0.22]); own at least one handgun (0.27 [0.22-0.32] vs. no handguns (0.05 [0.02-0.15]); or own firearms for protection (0.29 [0.24-0.35]) vs. do not own for protection (0.03 [0.01-0.08]). Approximately 7% of US children (4.6 million) live in homes in which at least one firearm is stored loaded and unlocked, an estimate that is more than twice as high as estimates reported in 2002, the last time a nationally representative survey assessed this outcome. To the extent that the high prevalence of children exposed to unsafe storage that we observe reflects a secular change in public opinion towards the belief that having a gun in the home makes the home safer, rather than less safe, interventions that aim to make homes safer for children should address this misconception. Guidance alone, such as that offered by the American Academy of Pediatrics, has fallen short. Our findings underscore the need for more active and creative efforts to reduce children's exposure to unsafely stored firearms.

‘Blacks Are Immune From Mental Illness’

‘Blacks Are Immune From Mental Illness’

Study on the Main Factors Affecting the Network Public Opinion Recognition Hotness Evaluation

The main factors affecting the heat of public opinion network scientific identification evaluation, and analyze the relationship between various factors, has important significance for the development of understanding of the changes of network public opinion trends. From the perspective of information ecology, and through literature review, questionnaire summarized the 15 factors influence the changes of network public opinion on these factors and heat. Effective relationship was analyzed by DEMATEL method. The results show that the ability of handling crisis, the government should guide satisfaction, opinion leaders, topic types, Navy participation and participation response number can be regarded as the key factors affecting the network public opinion heat evaluation.

A change in the wind? US public views on renewable energy and climate compared

BackgroundRenewable energy development is a necessary step toward climate change mitigation, so these topics have often been linked. In US public discourse, however, they have somewhat different profiles—climate change views are tied closely to partisan identity, whereas renewable energy exhibits more cross-cutting appeal, and sometimes more cross-cutting opposition as well. To what extent are such differences reflected in survey data tracking rates of change, respondent characteristics, and local or regional variations in public opinion on renewable energy and climate?MethodsWe explore similarities and differences in views of renewable energy and climate change using a unique collection of 18 US national or regional surveys totaling more than 14,000 interviews, conducted between 2011 and 2017. Individual surveys varied in context, content, and goals, but all asked two common energy and climate questions, which yield comparable and strikingly consistent results.ResultsPublic support for renewable energy appears broader than acceptance of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), especially in a more conservative region. Despite local controversies, support for renewable energy in recent years rose faster than ACC acceptance on two regional surveys. Political divisions remain wide on both topics, but wider regarding climate change—particularly among college-educated respondents. Renewable energy views in counties with proposed or operating wind farms are not systematically different from those in other counties.ConclusionsOverall, these results provide encouragement for promoting renewable energy in terms of its economic benefits, working around some of the political identity-based resistance to climate change mitigation. That approach could be most important in politically conservative regions where such resistance is strong.

Archaeo-propaganda: The History of Political Engagement in Archaeology in Central Europe

Archaeology, a science studying material sources with which mankind shaped their world and social relations in the past, may appear to be an apolitical discipline. In fact, the opposite is true. National and ideological propagandists have long set their eyes on archaeology, since its very beginnings. In this paper I am trying to give a brief overview of the development of ideology in archaeology and its application, as well as its engagement in the formation of political propaganda in the modern history of Central and Eastern Europe. In today’s globalised world, archaeology is confronted on a daily basis with changes in public opinion, with the development of the society in a diverse geopolitical context, but also with a wide range of human rights issues. There is no doubt that archaeology, as a social science, cannot develop in isolation from changes in the society and, quite to the contrary, that it is destined to reflect on major societal issues of our time. Although modern archaeology is profoundly affected by the current intellectual societal demand and ideology, archaeologists openly admit that their science is not apolitical and timeless. This awareness could hopefully help prevent its unfortunate political engagement and use for the propaganda of ideologies and regimes in the future.

Egypt’s watchdogs: Citizen journalism before, during and after the 2011 revolution

Abstract Often, social perspectives of the Arab Revolution give a lot of credit to Facebook as the primary catalyst for political mobilization and citizen journalism. Although Facebook as a platform can be acclaimed for helping to shape this situation, this research argues that the role of Facebook is often exaggerated. In the context of this work, the ‘Arab Revolution’ refers to the period in which former President, Hosni Mubarak, was ousted from power in January 2011 and the term ‘revolution’ is not used to signal a radical transformation of society. Empirically, this article addresses the role of social media and in particular, Facebook, before, during and after this revolution. It examines the impact of this new technology on the rise of online social activism by investigating the effect of citizen journalism on forming public opinion, exploring the relationship between citizen journalism and the acceleration of the events that led to the Egyptian revolution. It also explores the impact of social media on citizen activism after the fall of Mubarak’s regime. In this case citizen journalism refers to the production of media content with the aim of changing public opinion. Empirical data for this research work were both qualitative and quantitative. Four hundred survey questionnaires were distributed to Facebook users to identify their usage before, during and after the 25 January Revolution to find out their views on social media activism and its impact on public opinion. The questionnaires covered the duration from June 2010 to June 2015. In addition, intensive interviews were conducted with media experts and political activists to gain a deeper insight of the role of citizen journalism in social change. Findings demonstrate that during the three stages of the Egyptian revolution, covered by this research, social media remained significant, albeit with a slight difference in its use by protesters. During the revolution, social media networks were primarily the outlets that Egyptians used to report local events to international media. The post revolution period has also witnessed an interest in social media networks. Facebook has made Egyptians more politically and socially conscious and encouraged them to participate in social and political events such as presidential and parliament elections. However, this research work reports that the use of such platforms does not seem to have had much impact on political change in Egypt during the last few years.

Regulatory Cycles: A Political Economy Model

Financial regulatory policy in the U.S. has been conspicuously pro-cyclical over the last two decades. The 2000s financial boom coincided with a period of financial deregulation and the post-crisis response, a massive scaling up of regulation, was largely implemented during an economic downturn. Many argued that these regulatory waves were excessive. More recently, there are strong signs of a move toward deregulation, at a time of a booming economy and stock market. A closer look at historical financial boom-bust cycles suggests that, in fact, pro-cyclicality in financial regulation is a common and recurring pattern. This paper combines a signaling model of elections with a simple financial regulation model to study how public opinion, financial innovation, and policy-makers incentives shape financial regulation. While changes in voters' perceptions of financial innovation alone can generate a pro-cyclical pattern, we show that this cyclicality can be significantly amplified by politicians' electoral incentives: Both over-regulation and under-regulation can naturally arise in equilibrium, and small changes in public opinion can induce large regulatory shifts.

Grand challenges and great potential in foreign language teaching and learning

This article argues for the field of foreign languages to begin to identify and define our Grand Challenges, which are difficult yet solvable problems facing our field. Seeking answers to these challenges can provide new opportunities for collaboration and can spur new directions and innovation within language learning and teaching. Researchable questions that emerge from these Grand Challenges can form a research trajectory, build community support, and contribute to changing public opinion about the role of languages in greater society.

Unity or Identity? European Disintegration and WWI Culture Conflict

A resurgence of nationalism in Europe risks undermining the European integration project. Social Psychology and International Relations (IR) literature have explored how identities are created and strengthened through a process called ‘othering’ in which groups define themselves in opposition to others. Several variables contributing to this resurgence of nationalism exist, but ‘othering’ as a means of strengthening group identity appears to be among the most salient factors. This paper draws on previous academic research and uses a historical case study to argue that ‘othering’ in times of trouble and insecurity is not a new phenomenon. My research has focused on the changing public opinion among American citizens of English, German, and Irish descent during World War I. The methodology for this research required surveying primary and secondary sources published during the period August 1914 – April 1917 in order to glean evidence of changing public opinion of specifically the English diaspora. Throughout this process, it became apparent that a resurfacing of cultural and civilizational identities among the diasporas were often the source of changing opinion. Moreover, attempts by Irish and German-Americans to discredit English civilization and the Entente cause during the war actually served to strengthen Anglo-American ties and identities. This case study illustrates how the process of ‘othering’ may be used to bolster a sense of group identity in times of insecurity. This is something that appears to be occurring in Europe and has begun a process of European disintegration.

The (Non)Impact of the 2015 Paris Terrorist Attacks on Political Attitudes.

Previous research has consistently found widespread attitudinal impacts of terrorist attacks. Using data from the European Social Survey, which was conducting interviews in 11 countries when the Charlie Hebdo attacks happened in January 2015, I compare respondents from before and after the shootings to test whether the event shifted public opinion on several topics. There is no evidence of average impacts across a range of issues, from xenophobia to ideological self-placement and immigration policy preferences. Data collected when the Paris November 2015 shootings happened also present no evidence of public opinion change on immigration and refugee policy matters in France, but there appears to be an effect in other countries-which varies according to contextual vulnerability. Results suggest that views on immigration and immigrants have, to a certain extent, stabilized in Europe and are less susceptible to shifts from dramatic events.

The Laws of War and Public Opinion: An Experimental Study

Research examining whether the laws of war change state behavior has produced conflicting results, and limitations of observational studies have stalled progress on the topic. To bring new evidence to the debate, I have conducted a survey experiment that directly tests whether one mechanism hypothesized to drive compliance with international law - changes in public opinion - creates pressure to comply with the laws of war. The results provide qualified support to research suggesting that democracies may comply with the laws of war when there is the expectation of reciprocity.

Monetary and Fiscal History of Peru 1960-2010: Radical Policy Experiments, Inflation and Stabilization

We show that Peru’s chronic inflation through the 1970s and 1980s was the result of the need for inflationary taxation in a regime of fiscal dominance of monetary policy. Hyperinflation occurred when debt accumulation became unavailable, and a populist administration engaged in a counterproductive policy of price controls and loose credit. We interpret the fiscal difficulties preceding the stabilization as a process of social learning to live within the realities of fiscal budget balance. The credibility of the policy regime change in the 1990s may be linked ultimately to the change in public opinion giving proper incentives to politicians, after the traumatic consequences of the hyperstagflation of 1987-1990. JEL Classification-JEL: E52 , E58 , E62

Imitational features of the 2018 presidential elections and their impact on the next electoral cycle: results of public opinion polls

The article provides assessment of the 2018 Russian presidential elections with the distinctive features of electoral authoritarianism. Drawn on the findings of VCIOM opinion polls the paper concludes that the nature of the elections at the state level is primarily imitational: compliance with electoral procedures does not lead to the redistribution of political power but merely consolidates the existing political system. However, despite the imitational characteristics, elections reflect changes in public opinion ignored by the authorities out of necessity. In this article, the authors describe a forecast scenario for the next electoral cycle.