Public Debt Issues Research Articles

Under Treasury Control: Japan’s Emergence as an Egalitarian, Small-government State

This study analyses the formation of a policy system that reduced income inequality in Japan in the 1960s, a period of rapid economic growth. According to comparative research, the Japanese state is an example of small government with income equality. Japan’s income inequality rose in the 1950s, and at that point, the government faced a decision about how to reduce income inequality, and particularly whether to expand social security and government size. This study uses primary materials to analyse how and why Japan became more egalitarian while maintaining a small-government state, focusing on fiscal rules set by the Ministry of Finance, which adopted a balanced budget rule that prevented the issuance of public bonds and limited the tax burden ratio. As reflected in the government’s Income Doubling Plan, this development led to a trade-off among factors, such as social security, public works, and tax cuts, which led to the subordination of social security. Despite public debt issuance in 1965, which was contrary to two fiscal rules, social security did not expand because of fiscal rigidification. Throughout the 1960s, spending on public works and income tax cuts was prioritised over social security, resulting in small government but also income equality.

Public debt and Poland's financial security

In an era of rapidly advancing indebtedness in many countries of the world, issues of public debt and its impact on the financial security of the state have been, are and will continue to be topical. The phenomena of inflation, stagnation and sometimes recession, which are the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, affect many EU Member States, making the issue of excessive budget deficits and the growing risk of insolvency the focus of public attention once again. In this context, it is worth taking a look at the legal solutions and practices in Poland in order to have a view on this issue. Instruments and solutions that may contribute to the reduction of public debt, which would facilitate the shaping of Poland's financial security, deserve particular attention.

The public debt sustainability and its determinants in Sub-Sahara African countries

PurposeThis paper aims to answer the following important questions: Is public debt in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries sustainable? What are the determinants of public debt sustainability in these countries, and do these determinants exhibit heterogeneity due to regional, natural resource, and income differences among SSA countries?Design/methodology/approachThis study analyzes the public debt sustainability in SSA countries using the theoretical model known as the Present Value Budget Constraint (PVBC) model developed by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), and adopts the econometric testing method proposed by Trehan and Walsh (1991). Moreover, to empirically investigate the determinants of public debt sustainability in SSA countries, the System-Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) method is applied. Furthermore, this study conducts heterogeneity analysis by categorizing the sample based on different regions, natural resource endowments, and income levels. The data of this study are sourced from the IMF and World Bank databases for 45 SSA countries from 2005 to 2021.FindingsFindings reveal that public debt in SSA countries is not sustainable in the long run, with factors such as the previous government debt, long-term debt ratio, debt repayment capacity, economic growth rate, inflation rate, export to GDP, and government fiscal deficit rate influencing sustainability. Additionally, the factors exhibit heterogeneity attributed to regional, natural resource, and income variations among SSA countries.Practical implicationsThe findings of our study will serve as a catalyst for policymakers in the SSA countries to embrace and sustain robust fiscal consolidation and debt stabilization measures. Moreover, countries with distinct characteristics should implement tailored approaches. Additionally, policymakers in SSA countries should implement economic measures to address public debt issues. These measures include improving the macroeconomic structure, promoting economic transformation and diversification of industries, fostering sustainable economic growth, ensuring price stability, and strengthening resilience against external shocks and debt risks. Specifically, countries endowed with indigenous species, resources, and tourism potential should adopt a well-coordinated strategy that utilizes agriculture, tourism, ecotourism, and the hospitality industry as instruments for sustainable local community and rural development.Originality/valueFirstly, it assesses the sustainability of public debt and its determinants for countries in SSA, which distinguishes it from previous studies that only focus on either debt sustainability or determinants of debt separately. Secondly, by including multiple SSA countries in the analysis, this study stands out from prior research that predominantly concentrates on specific nations. Thirdly, the utilization of the System-GMM method for analyzing determinants adds a novel dimension to this study, departing from earlier literature primarily focused on debt thresholds. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis conducted in this study provides an empirical foundation for tailoring policies to different countries, addressing a facet often overlooked in earlier literature.

International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa

The paper adds to the literature on the issue of public debt in African economies, by investigating the role foreign exchange reserves play in improving the level of indebtedness and as buffer of the negative effect of exchange rate depreciation while considering the exchange rate policy. Our results show a direct link between the level of foreign currency reserves and that of external debt in Africa. Particularly, we demonstrate that higher foreign currency reserves tend to decrease the public debt stock to GDP. This effect is even more significant when countries go through high exchange rate depreciation episodes (10% or higher). This impact, however, is not homogenous among country groups, as only countries with a floating exchange regime tend to benefit from this buffer effect compared to anchored regimes. In a time where most African economies face severe exchange rate depreciation episodes following the U.S. monetary tightening policy, central bankers and policy makers need to consider a plethora of policy issues including interventions in the FX market to mitigate depreciations and maintain a sustainable public debt stock.

How does the JOBS act affect the rule 144A market?

AbstractIn this article, we examine the effects of Title II of the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act on the cost and issue size of Rule 144 debts for a sample from 2002 to 2019. We find that after the enactment of the JOBS Act, the average cost (issue size) of the Rule 144 A offers decreases (increases) significantly. The findings are robust after controlling for issue‐, issuer‐, and country‐specific characteristics as well as market conditions. Evidence based on the propensity‐score‐matched sample, including public debt issues, subsample analyses, difference‐in‐differences tests, and alternative event windows, further shows that domestic firms benefit more from the JOBS Act as they have a greater reduction in the cost of debt and increase in the issue size. Overall, our results are consistent with the increased investor base hypothesis and suggest that Title II of the JOBS Act satisfies Congress's goal of making it more cost efficient for Rule 144 A issuers.

The euro area sovereign debt crisis and the sovereign debt Laffer curve: a historic assessment for 1999–2014

This article addresses the historical evolution of sovereign debt trajectories since the beginning of the euro area up to the corresponding sovereign debt crisis, using certain key economic concepts previously proposed by the literature in connection to other historic sovereign debt events. It first recovers the concept of the sovereign debt Laffer curve, which efficiently addresses the non-linear relationship between economic output and public debt issuance. It then presents an important set of theoretic economic concepts that accurately describe the onset of debt vulnerabilities negatively impacting economic growth, therefore linking these fundamental but heterogeneous public debt-related concepts under the unifying concept of the said sovereign debt Laffer curve, which adequately encompasses these heterogeneous concepts. For example, fundamental concepts such as debt vulnerability, ‘debt overhang’, or ‘illiquidity vs. insolvency’ are adequately contextualized under the said Laffer curve. This innovative historical perspective might be useful in the analysis of subsequent sovereign debt crises, as well as in tackling future research in public debt sustainability, namely where the design and implementation of sustainable public debt policies in advanced economies is concerned.

European financial law and the state-finance nexus: Sovereign privileges or market discipline for safe public debt?

AbstractEuropean financial regulation consistently gives governments privileged access to private investors, reflecting the anchor role assigned to sovereign securities as safe and liquid assets for the financial system. Legislative reforms after the financial crisis of 2008 further expanded the preferential treatment of sovereign securities as zero-risk claims, introduced portfolio requirements in favour of public debt, and constrained market speculation against governments. These sovereign privileges appear counterproductive for fiscal discipline and financial stability: they encourage excessive public debt issuance and make financial institutions holding government bonds - in particular from euro area countries with a variable risk profile - vulnerable to fiscal turbulence. Governments seem to have a conflict of interest. On the one hand, they are prudential regulators of financial risk-taking, on the other hand, they tend to overlook the financial sector's exposure to sovereign risk. This article considers four theories of the state-finance nexus and their solutions to this conflict of interest. The money view, the franchise view, and the modern financial repression view draw on the state's monetary and regulatory powers over finance to confirm sovereign safety. Their positions fundamentally contrast with the neoliberal view, which relies on free markets to enforce sustainable public finances. The article concludes that sovereign privileges present a fundamental dilemma for European financial governance with a neoliberal orientation: they oblige private investors to hold public debt, while weakening the role of markets in promoting fiscal discipline as the very foundation of sovereign safety.

Staff Guidance Note on the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries

This note provides operational guidance for the use of the Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability Framework (SRDSF), which replaces the Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries. The SRDSF introduces improvements in organization, methodology, transparency, and communication when analyzing public debt issues in countries that mainly finance themselves with market-based debt. After its phased adoption beginning [June 2022], it will become the Fund’s principal tool for assessing public debt sustainability.

FEATURES OF PUBLIC DEBT REGULATION IN GEORGIA: CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES AND MODERN CHALLENGES

The article addresses the issues of ensuring the exchange rate stability of GEL - the national currency of our country and effective management and regulation of public debt as well as attaches weight to the mechanisms for overcoming the challenges of economic development in the country and to the selection and use of flexible tools. The article highlights the efforts of the leaders of the government and the National Bank of the country in developing and implementing the optimal macroeconomic policies, as well as in maintaining monetary policy stability and achieving sustainable economic development. Furthermore, considerable attention is given to the GEL exchange rate not only against to major currencies - the USD or the euro - but also to the currencies of the other partner countries of Georgia. The article analyzes the dynamics of changes in the GEL exchange rate against the currencies of partner countries, based on the statistical data of the National Bank of Georgia. Factors influencing both effective nominal and real exchange rates as well as government domestic and external debt are also assessed at different time intervals. Thus, the purpose of this article is to identify the issues related to the management and regulation of public debt based on the analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Georgia, as well as to study the factors that have a positive and negative effect on them. This article aims to identify the issues related to the management and regulation of public debt obligations, on the basis of public debt sustainability analysis. The article, on the basis of statistical data, analyzes the dynamics and structure of public debt in 2010-2020. The problematic issues in the financial and monetary system are also identified and their determinants are investigated. Recommendations have been developed to reduce the debt burden and overcome the negative consequences caused by them. Based on the analysis of the economic situation in Georgia and the dynamics of the exchange rate, the recommendations for stabilizing the exchange rate of the financial sector, effective management of public debt and achieving sustainable economic growth have been developed in this article. Subject and object of research. The subject of the article's research is to identify problems related to the fluctuation of the Georgian national currency exchange rate and public debt regulation. While the object of the article is monetary policy that have been developed and implemented by the National Bank of Georgia and the Ministry of Finance of Georgia. Research methods. Relevant scientific literature as well as statistical data from the National Bank of Georgia, the Ministry of Finance and the National Statistics Office of Georgia were found at the initial stage of the research. In addition, the studies and articles by Georgian and foreign scholars on public debt issues and the materials of the International Monetary Fund were used. The scientific value of the article. The article analyzes the dynamics and structure of the GEL exchange rate and public debt in 2010-2020 based on the statistical data of Geostat and the Ministry of Finance of Georgia. Problematic issues in the field of finance and monetary-credit have been identified and their causes have been investigated. The recommendations have been developed to alleviate the debt burden of Georgia and overcome the negative consequences caused by them. Based on the analysis of the economic situation in Georgia and the dynamics of the GEL exchange rate, the article develops recommendations for improving the financial sector, stabilizing the exchange rate and ensuring effective public debt management and sustainable economic growth. It should also be noted that, the article addresses and assesses the approaches of the leaders of Government of Georgia and the National Bank to ensuring the formation and improvement of a stable macroeconomic environment. The role of monetary policy in ensuring the sustainable development of the economy is revealed. In addition, the mistakes in exchange rate regulation and public debt management are also identified and assessed. The article substantiates the crucial role of ensuring the stability of the GEL exchange rate in achieving economic growth. Besides, reviewing the GEL exchange rate is important not only against the USD, but also against the currencies of other trading partner countries. Accordingly, the paper, based on the statistical data, also analyzes the dynamics of changes in the GEL exchange rate against the currencies of partner countries. The article also analyzes the key factors affecting both effective nominal and real exchange rates, as well as domestic and external debt at different time intervals.

Debt financing and classification shifting of private firms

PurposeThis study aims to examine whether debt financing creates incentives for private firms to engage in earnings management via classification shifting. Especially, the authors examine whether debt-induced financial reporting incentives differ depending on the type of debt (i.e. public bonds versus private loans) and whether such incentives are influenced by the characteristics of external auditors (i.e. initial audits and auditor size).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses data on 93,427 Korean private firms from 2001 to 2016. Classification shifting is measured by the positive correlation between non-core expenses and unexpected core earnings estimated with ordinary least squares.FindingsThe empirical analyses reveal that private firms engage in classification shifting as do public firms. Importantly, classification shifting is observed only in private firms that have outstanding debt, but not in private firms without debt. Among debt-financing private firms, classification shifting is more prevalent for firms that issue public debt than for firms that only use private debt. In addition, classification shifting of debt-financing private firms is more successful when they are audited by new auditors that are one of the non-Big 4 firms.Research limitations/implicationsThe study provides evidence of classification shifting in private firms, which is novel to the literature. However, the inferences in the study depend on the validity of the model for detecting classification shifting.Practical implicationsThis study helps lenders enhance their understanding on the financial reporting behaviors of borrowing firms. The results in this study suggest that lenders should be cautious in using core earnings for their investment decisions.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by providing novel evidence of classification shifting in private firms. In addition, the authors contribute to the literature on debt-induced incentives for financial reporting.

RATIONAL DEBT POLICY IN THE FINANCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE STATE

The aim of the work is to study the features of Ukraine's debt policy, its modern methods, and levers, identify the main problems and determine the rational directions of public debt management. The following methods were used in the research process: logical generalization, methods of analysis, synthesis, induction and deduction, calculation-analytical method, method of graphical representation of data. The article examines the essence of Ukraine's public debt and identifies the main problems of its management. The structure of Ukraine's public debt and its optimal limits are determined. A thorough analysis of the current state and trends of public debt of Ukraine. In particular, trends in its share in gross domestic product were identified, a structural analysis of Ukraine's public debt from 01.01.2014 to 01.09.2021 was conducted, and an analysis of budget expenditures for servicing and repaying Ukraine's public debt was conducted. Analysis of the state and structure of Ukraine's public debt makes it possible to identify trends in its growth. During the analyzed period, the size of Ukraine's public debt changed rapidly, due to the general factors of economic development. In the structure of public debt there is a clear tendency for the predominance of external debt over domestic. The aim of the work is to study the essence of public debt and methods of its management, analysis of the situation and identification of the main problems of public debt management in Ukraine. The issue of public debt is becoming more relevant every day. The main reasons for the emergence of public debt are the state budget deficit and significant amounts of internal and external borrowing. Further growth of Ukraine's public debt is very dangerous and may lead to loss of economic independence, withdrawal from the financial market of funds that could be used to develop the real sector of the economy, reduced competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets, declining living standards. But reaching the projected level threatens Ukraine with default. To avoid negative consequences, it is necessary to improve the mechanism of public debt management at the institutional level, to improve the regulatory framework, as well as to increase the level of own gross domestic product through the modernization of domestic enterprises.

Large Banks and Systemic Spillovers

What are the spillover effects when central financial institutions with dominant market shares simultaneously halt their liquidity creation and risk transformation roles? To shed light on this question, we build a novel, comprehensive dataset. Firms without a history of debt financing exhibit limited exposure to a systemic event. For firms that rely on external debt financing, their exposures are mainly driven by pre-existing connections to these central financial institutions. Further, having multiple bank connections or access to public debt issuance does not mitigate systemic exposures. The often-hypothesized diversification channels appear to be limited when central institutions are collectively constrained.

Do politically connected firms borrow cheaply? Evidence from two post U.S. election campaigns

ABSTRACT We shed more light on the effect of corporate political connections on the cost of debt of US firms. Focusing on new public debt issuance and applying a two stages instrumental variable model, we show that despite carrying higher leverage, politically connected firms increased their debt financing at a lower cost than did unconnected firms. Connected firms took advantage of this benefit a short time after contributing to the 2008 and 2012 election campaigns. Further analyses show that the positive effect of leverage on the cost of debt is practically eliminated for politically connected firms, suggesting that these firms are perceived as less risky than unconnected ones.

Debt diversification and investments of European listed real estate companies

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between the use of public debt and investment activity of European listed real estate companies. Design/methodology/approach Using a hand-collected sample of debt structures of 102 European public real estate companies, and using European Central Bank lending standards survey as a proxy for bank credit availability, the authors test a conditional hypothesis on the relationship between investment rates and the use of public debt during period of constrained bank lending environment in Europe. Findings The results show that ex ante diversification of debt allows retaining higher investment rates when the main source of debt, bank lending, is shrinking. The effect is statistically and economically significant and increases during times of tight bank lending constraints. The authors find no support to debt capacity explanation of the effect. They neither find support of the higher investment rates to be indicative of overinvestment problem. The results are robust to alternative model specifications and estimators. Research limitations/implications The empirical analysis is limited to Europe. Practical implications Investments and the growth of real estate companies depend on their ability to seize value-increasing opportunities that arise in the competitive markets. This paper evaluates the role of a diversified debt structure in this context. The results suggest that debt structure can have material importance for the investment activity of European listed real estate companies and issuance of public debt can help companies to counterbalance the negative effects of restricted bank loan supply on the investment levels. Originality/value The paper extends the literature on debt structures of listed real estate firms by considering the effect of debt diversification on investments.

Compliance with pension‐related mandatory disclosures and debt financing

AbstractUsing hand‐collected data on the level of pension‐related mandatory disclosures required by International Accounting Standard 19Employee Benefits, we test whether compliance levels with these disclosures convey information that affects firms’ access to the public instead of the private debt market, as well as the cost of their new debt issues. We document a higher tendency to access the public debt market for firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher levels of pension‐related disclosure enjoy a lower cost in terms of issuance of public debt, but not a lower cost for private debt issues. Thus, the benefits of disclosure in reducing information risk are only realisable when creditors rely heavily on financial statements in their decision making, due to the limited access to private information. Additional tests reveal that high compliance levels effectively mitigate the negative effect of pension deficits on the cost of public debt. These findings provide novel evidence in the extant literature on the role of mandatory (and, in particular, pension‐related) disclosures on firms’ debt financing. They also have important policy implications.

Asset redeployability and the choice between bank debt and public debt

A firm with less redeployable assets, which are assets that have fewer alternative uses outside the firm, is more likely to borrow from banks than issue public debt. These findings are consistent with firms with less redeployable assets valuing the ability to renegotiate bank debt contracts instead of selling assets in the event of default. Consistent with this mechanism, firms with lower asset redeployability sell fewer assets following covenant violations. Our results contribute to work on the determinants of which debt markets a firm chooses to borrow from and the role that banks play as intermediaries.

The Choice Between Public and Private Debt by Russian Companies at Different Stages of the Life Cycle

The problems of formation of the company’s capital structure to date have already been studied well. A large number of theoretical papers and empirical studies devoted to this issue have been published. However, managers are confronted not only with the question of the optimal balance between equity and debt capital, but also with the choice of debt structure in the presence of several of its sources, such as public and private debt. This is a new paradigm in corporate finance. On the one hand, companies are not always ready to issue listed securities at the initial stages of their activity. On the other hand, raising funds in open markets has several advantages. With the help of public debt, one can attract a sufficiently large amount of financial resources with a lower cost in comparison with private borrowing. At the same time, as a rule, the public debt is not secured by the assets in the proper amount.
 According to the author’s opinion, in dealing with this question, companies can take into account not only the current state of the company and its financial indicators, but also the stages of the life cycle, since each of them has its own development features. The purpose of this study is to analyze whether life cycle stages and other financial indicators of a company affect the choice of a source of borrowed capital (private or public debt), thereby to contribute to the development of this research direction. The objects of study are Russian companies. In the empirical part of the study, the binary choice model had been applied.
 The sample size is 1,818 companies, the financial statements for three years were used. The stages of the organization’s life cycle were calculated by the method of V. Dickinson. A number of control variables were also included in the model. The results of empirical analysis indicate that the company decides to issue public debt, regardless of the stage of the life cycle. This allows us to conclude that the company, when conceptually resolving the question about the structure of borrowed capital, relies on economic indicators such as profitability, size of the company, structure of assets and financial leverage. Understanding this fact can also help potential investors in making investment decisions to form conservative portfolios.

Compliance With Pension-Related Mandatory Disclosures and Debt Financing

Using hand-collected data on the level of pension-related mandatory disclosures required by International Accounting Standard 19 Employee Benefits, we test whether compliance levels with these disclosures convey information that affects firms’ access to the public instead of the private debt market, as well as the cost of their new debt issues. We document a higher tendency to access the public debt market for firms with higher levels of pension-related disclosure. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher levels of pension-related disclosure enjoy a lower cost in terms of issuance of public debt, but not a lower cost for private debt issues. Thus, the benefits of disclosure in reducing information risk are only realizable when creditors rely heavily on financial statements in their decision making, due to the limited access to private information. Additional tests reveal that high compliance levels effectively mitigate the negative effect of pension deficits on the cost of public debt. These findings provide novel evidence in the extant literature on the role of mandatory (and, in particular, pension-related) disclosures on firms’ debt financing. They also have important policy implications.

External Governance and Debt Structure

Abstract This paper examines how external governance pressure affects the type of debt that firms issue. Consistent with a governance mechanism substitution effect, we find that an exogenous increase (decrease) in governance pressure from the product (takeover) market has a significant negative (positive) impact on the use of bank (public debt) financing over public debt (bank loan) issuance. Tests using changes in the strictness of loan covenants provide corroborative evidence. These findings are consistent with the notion that firms endogenously substitute governance mechanisms and that demand for creditor governance depends on the relative strength of alternative external governance mechanisms. Received May 18, 2016; editorial decision November 11, 2017 by Editor David Denis.

Government Debts and Fiscal Deficits in the United Kingdom: A Critical Review

This article intends to examine the issues of public debt and austerity policy in the United Kingdom. It attempts to provide an evaluation of fiscal policy under neoliberalism and to consider the relationship between this policy and the macroeconomic performance of the United Kingdom economy. There also seem to be ambiguities among the policy makers about austerity. Therefore, it seems important to examine the issue of government-imposed austerity policies and fiscal deficits. There is a need to borrow to cover the deficits as there is no inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom. Most democratic solutions against any inflationary pressures are to reduce the money in circulation through higher taxes. This study concludes that increased state intervention, as a means to enhance long-term growth, is crucial for achieving economic stability and greater equality.